Chapters authored
Forecasting Techniques and Accuracy of Sales Performance of a Grocery Store
This study examined forecasting techniques and accuracy of sales performance of a grocery store. The survey and ex-post facto research designs were employed. The study employed Naive, exponential smoothing, least square, moving average, multiplicative decomposition and additive decomposition methods to forecast sales using sales data generated from January, 2017 to August, 2018 while the forecast accuracy was evaluated. The outputs of the methods were compared to determine the optimal forecasts and the demand for the next 14 months using the multiplicative and additive methods. The MAPE for Naïve, Exponential smoothing, Least square, Moving average, Multiplicative and Additive decomposition are 10.9, 10.2, 8.6, 11.9, 7.64, and 7.66%. By comparison, it was observed that multiplicative decomposition is the best technique because it generates the optimal forecast accuracy of 7.64%. Thus, the study recommends that the grocery outlet should maintain effective and reliable sales records for accurate forecasts.
Part of the book: Operations Management and Management Science