Anatoly S. Shalamov

By Igor Sinitsyn and Anatoly Shalamov

Theoretical propositions of new probabilistic methodology of analysis, modeling, estimation and control in stochastic organizational-technical-economic systems (OTES) based on stochastic CALS informational technologies are considered. Stochastic integrated logistic support (ILS) of OTES modeling life cycle (LC), stochastic optimal of current state estimation in stochastic media defined by internal and external noises (including specially organized OTES-NS (noise support) and stochastic OTES optimal control) according to social-technical-economic-support criteria in real time by informational-analytical tools (IAT) of global type are presented. OTES-CALS are nonlinear and continuous-discrete. So we use approximate methods of normal approximation of probabilistic densities both for modeling and estimation. Spectrum of possibilities may be broaden by solving problems of OTES-CALS integration for existing markets of finances, goods and services. Analytical modeling, analysis, parametric optimization and optimal stochastic processes regulation in limits of illustrate some technologies and IAT given plans.

Part of the book: Probability, Combinatorics and Control

By Igor N. Sinitsyn and Anatoly S. Shalamov

Problems of optimal, sub- and conditionally optimal filtering and forecasting in product and staff subsystems at the background noise in synergistical organization-technical-economical systems (SOTES) are considered. Nowadays for highly available systems the problems of creation of basic systems engineering principles, approaches and information technologies (IT) for SOTES from modern spontaneous markets at the background inertially going world economics crisis, weakening global market relations at conditions of competition and counteraction reinforcement is very important. Big enterprises need IT due to essential local and systematic economic loss. It is necessary to form general approaches for stochastic processes and parameters estimation in SOTES at the background noises. The following notations are introduced: special observation SOTES (SOTES-O) with own organization-product resources and internal noise as information from special SOTES being enact noise (SOTES-N). Conception for SOTES structure for systems of technical, staff and financial support is developed. Linear, linear with parametric noises and nonlinear stochastic (discrete and hybrid) equations describing organization-production block (OPB) for three types of SOTES with their planning-economical estimating divisions are worked out. SOTES-O is described by two interconnected subsystems: state SOTES sensor and OPB supporting sensor with necessary resources. After short survey of modern modeling, sub- and conditionally optimal filtering and forecasting basic algorithms and IT for typical SOTES are given. Influence of OTES-N noise on rules and functional indexes of subsystems accompanying life cycle production, its filtration and forecasting is considered. Experimental software tools for modeling and forecasting of cost and technical readiness for parks of aircraft are developed.

Part of the book: Time Series Analysis