This chapter provides some aspects to probabilistic modelling in solving analytical problems of system engineering. The historically developed system of the formation of scientific bases of engineering calculations of characteristics of strength, stability, durability, reliability, survivability and safety is considered. The features of deterministic and probabilistic problems of evaluation of the characteristics of strength, stiffness, steadiness, durability and survivability are considered. Probabilistic problems of reliability, security, safety and risk assessment of engineering systems are formulated. Theoretical bases and methods of probabilistic modelling of engineering systems are stated. The main directions of solving the problems of ensuring security and safety according to the accident risk criteria are determined. The possibilities of probabilistic modelling methods in solving the problems of strength, reliability and safety of engineering systems are shown in practical examples.
Part of the book: Probabilistic Modeling in System Engineering
Large hydropower plants (HPPs) are categorized as critically and strategically important infrastructure facilities in industrialized countries. Therefore, the issues of ensuring HPPs safety are of paramount importance. In this chapter, the basic aspects of the safety analysis of HPPs, calculation and experimental substantiation of the strength, and resource and reliability of the main equipment are discussed. The scientific and technical measures to ensure safety of HPPs are presented. As a defining measure of safety, it is proposed to ensure the protection of HPPs from severe accidents and disasters according to risk criteria. The main provisions of the risk assessment are presented on the basis of a sequential analysis of loads, features of stress-strain states, characteristics of mechanical properties, and limit states of hydraulic equipment of HPPs. The issues of calculation and experimental evaluation of hydro turbine’s resource, which limit the safety of HPPs, are considered. The features of technical diagnosis of hydraulic turbines are considered; characteristic defects and damages are described. The main provisions of the estimated residual life of hydro turbines are presented. The results of the risk estimates of HPPs and hydro turbine resource are given.
Part of the book: Probability, Combinatorics and Control
Subsea inter-field pipelines are an important element of offshore oil and gas infrastructure. Leakage or fracture of these pipelines is associated with the risk of large economic and environmental losses. One of the main sources of pipeline fracture is pipe defects. The presented section discusses the methodological aspects of assessing the hazard of defects of subsea inter-field pipelines by risk criteria of accidents. A conceptual approach of defects hazard assessing by risk criteria has been formulated, based on analysis the requirement of modern standards. The risk is defined as the probability of negative consequences, the scale of which is determined by the hazard class of pipeline accidents. The probability and scale of accidents are linked by a risk matrix. A method for a three-level assessment of the suitability of a pipeline for operation after in-line inspection has been developed. The method allows assessing the hazard of the most typical defects in subsea pipelines, such as metal loss, metal delamination, cracks and crack-like defects. The allowable defect sizes are determined for the given risk criteria using partial safety factors. The novelty of the methodology lies in the substantiation of safety factors according to risk criteria corresponding to a given class of damage and loss. A scheme for making decisions on the admissibility of defects by risk criteria has been developed. An example of hazard assessment of defects in subsea pipelines is presented.
Part of the book: Issues on Risk Analysis for Critical Infrastructure Protection