The chapter will present the classification of the types of modern terrorism and describe scenarios and probabilistic models of ordinary, technological, and the so-called intelligent terrorism that are distinguished by their triggering events, propagation modes, damaging factors, probabilities, and consequences. A comparative assessment of these three types of terrorism is presented. Dynamic three-sided models allow assessing the situation from standpoints of terrorists and law enforcement agencies, the administration of the complex engineering system, and analyzing actions and counteractions of various sides involved. A new comprehensive approach to ensuring complex engineering system security is described. This approach is focused not only on the development of protection barriers and safeguards against predetermined list of design-basis scenarios of terrorist attacks but also on increasing the system’s resilience toward beyond design-basis attack scenarios.
Part of the book: Probabilistic Modeling in System Engineering