Chapters authored
Probabilistic Analysis of Transportation Systems for Oil and Natural Gas
In this chapter, the need of probabilistic modeling for design, construction, and operation of oil and gas pipelines is justified. Such modeling should use information and databases on deterministic and statistical dependencies related to deformation, damage accumulation, failure, fracture accidents, and catastrophes. The probabilistic design equations and their parameters for the characteristics of strength, durability, fracture toughness, risks of accidents, and manmade catastrophes are given. The economic efficiency of pipeline management based on controlling probabilistic characteristics through conducting diagnostic, repair-and-renewal operations while ensuring the acceptable levels of reliability and safety parameters is substantiated. The results of studies in the field of statistics and probabilities of emergency situations during manufacturing, construction, and operation conducted by Russian and foreign specialists are presented.
Part of the book: Probabilistic Modeling in System Engineering
Hybrid Modeling of Offshore Platforms’ Stress-Deformed and Limit States Taking into Account Probabilistic Parameters
Offshore platforms should be referred to critically and strategically important objects of a technosphere due to technological and operational challenges, on the one hand, and the danger potential level, on the other hand. Environmental, social and economic losses occurred over several decades of accidents and disasters in unique Great Britain, Norwegian. The Russian and the USA platforms were evaluated in death of dozens of operators, destruction of platforms, environment contamination and hence in multi-bullion losses. All of these indicate insufficiency of currently taken engineering solutions, providing structure strength, operational life and safety. The scientific, design, expert and supervising organizations in Russia and in the world are developing and improving mathematical and physical methods, implementing the probabilistic formulations for accidents and disasters, risk assessment and risks reduction on offshore platforms. The solutions of the following problems are included: extension of the comprehensive computational and experimental strength, operational life and survivability analysis to the cases of nonroutine events, accidental and catastrophic conditions; numerical justification of modelling of critical elements, zones and points with the maximum tension, deformations and damages occurring under impacts of external extreme seismic, ice, wind, low temperature; implementation of comprehensive diagnostic methods for damage states evaluation within nonlinear and probabilistic fracture mechanics; and use of new structural design and technological systems for reduction of negative extreme impacts as well as emergency protection systems. The solution of the specified problems is illustrated by case studies of the Russian specialists for each life cycle stage of the platforms offshore Caspian and Kara Seas and Sea of Okhotsk.
Part of the book: Probability, Combinatorics and Control