Denis Mutiibwa

By Denis Mutiibwa, Ayse Kilic and Suat Irmak

Change in climate variables, especially air temperature, can substantially impact water availability, use, management, allocation, and projections for rural and urban applications. This study presents analyses for detecting summer air temperature change by investigating trends of two separate climate-periods in the USA High Plains. Two trend periods, the reference period (1895–1930) and the warming period (1971–2006), were investigated using parametric and nonparametric methods. During the reference period, minimum air temperature (Tmin) was statistically stationary at a nonsignificant increasing rate of 0.02°C/year. However, from early 1970s, Tmin increased at a significant rate of 0.02°C/year. The maximum air temperature (Tmax) had a weaker warming signal than Tmin during the reference period. During the warming period, Tmax had a cooling trend at a nonsignificant rate of −0.004°C/year. About 22% of the High Plains had significant warming trends before 1930. Compared to the summers before 1930, the summer temperatures of the High Palins since the 1970s increased, on average, by 0.86°C. Overall, parametric methods lead to the conclusion that 50% of the study area experienced a significant warming trend in Tmin. In comparison, nonparametric methods indicated that 94% of the study area experienced a warming trend. Overall, in recent decades, summer average temperatures in the High Plains have been warming as compared to the early twentieth-century decades, and the warming is most likely driven primarily by increasing nighttime Tmin.

Part of the book: Water Challenges of an Urbanizing World