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The objective of the research is to project the morphological evolution of single-family dwellings towards the year 2100, using the scenario methodology for prospective studies, to obtain formal design strategies that can be adapted for a probable future. The research approach is qualitative documentary, using primary and secondary sources to obtain retrospective data and then can project them into the future. The methodological process is divided into six stages; in the first stage called planning, through bibliographic and audio-visual documentary analysis, four probable futures are established and studied by articulating timelines using retrospective and prospective data; in the second stage called anticipation, the most relevant historical milestones are identified to outline these futures; in the third stage, called temporisation, the formal patterns are studied through the redesign of the facades of the selected case studies; in the fourth stage, called deepening, the possible causes of futures that could develop are studied in depth and verified; in the fifth stage, the scenarios with the greatest plausibility and scientific evidence are presented; and in the sixth stage, the prospective scenarios are proposed to the experts to be validated by consensus. The results obtained with this research are a set of prospective scenarios of the morphological evolution of single-family dwellings and their formal design strategies.
Two centuries ago, French writer Jules Verne, using his analytical and synthetic thinking, managed to describe the incipient technological advances of his time, projecting them a century ahead through his futuristic stories. When there were hardly any prototypes of submarines, helicopters or space rockets, Verne narrated his stories of journeys into outer space or to the bottom of the sea, prospective scenarios that by the end of the nineteenth century were becoming reality. One of his famous phrases was: whatever a man can imagine, another man can make it come true. This background allows us to assert that if we want to project our future, we must know our past and analyse our present. For as Prof. Sohail Inayatullah defines it in his proposal of the Triangle of Futures, there are different driving or inhibiting forces of change that emerges from each of the dimensions of time: the weight of the past, the push of the present and the pull of the imagined future. In this approach, alternative futures emerge in a whirlpool that forms between its three vertices. These vectors push and pull in different directions, each with its own set of driving and inhibiting forces. It is the balance between the force vectors at each corner that will define the different plausible futures [2].
In view of this, if we were to place the time horizon up to 2100, the following research questions arise: what will the houses of the future be like? can we glimpse the future of architecture? would it be plausible to predict future events? can we control the variables implicit in the design and construction of houses in the years to come? These are questions that are addressed in this academic study from a scientific point of view. However, the mere fact of talking about architecture entails a complete and complex set of knowledge, which is why in this academic analysis the study focuses only on the morphological production of architectural form, using as a case study the single-family dwelling in prospective scenarios.
1.1 Problem
“If you kill a cockroach you are a hero, but if you kill a beautiful butterfly you are a bad guy. Morality has aesthetic criteria”
Throughout the history of mankind, there have been great cultures that have excelled in creating architectural works that endure to this day, and these works have been catalogued of great architectural value for multiple characteristics; for example, in the ancient and middle ages, the architectural works of relevance are found around the temples of the gods, creating monumental works as an icon of respect for the divinity whose architectural value was represented by the beauty of its columns, friezes, capitals, arches, lintels, etc., with philosophical, religious or social principles that were well founded in each period [4]. With the arrival of the Renaissance, in the modern age, the human being focuses his attention on man as the centre of the world; however, the architectural production continues to consider the design parameters of the preceding epochs, and the formal value was still manifested in the beauty and monumentality of its façades. With the rationalist vision and the first industrial revolution, the contemporary era began, considered a turning point in the history of mankind, because, despite achieving an indisputable technological and economic development, there was also a social gap between developed and developing countries, as well as the beginning of global warming due to the industrial use of coal. In the architectural field, the production of works and their aesthetic value are related to the use of the materials of the time and their monumentality is reduced to the scale of man. Currently, architectural production revolves around the capitalist system, and the architectural work is treated only as a good or a commercial service that generates profits, without considering the philosophical principles with which it was founded [5]; however with climate change, globalisation, technological development and economic and social inequality, makes us think that architecture is in an experimental stage trying to adapt and project itself into new futures, where the beauty and value of the architectural work should be studied with a multi-criteria vision. Therefore, this research addresses a historical analysis of the formal production of architecture and its projection into the future, with a view to finding methodological and design strategies based on prospective scenarios.
1.2 Reference framework
“Life is a series of collisions with the future; it is not the sum of what we have been, but what we long to be”
As mentioned in previous paragraphs, to talk about an architectural work in an integral way entails having a complete and complex maturity and knowledge in art and science, considering that this study bases its analysis only on the aesthetic part of the architectural work, to be more precise on the morphology of the façades of single-family houses in prospective scenarios, it is important to specify some concepts that allow us to understand the context and discuss the results obtained.
1.2.1 Morphology
What is morphology? Morphogenesis is a term coined by biology to explain the evolution of form, especially in plants, so that in architecture the process of change, evolution, transformation or mutation of form is a critical point in the training of architects, since it is here that the future professional must develop and argue the creative process of generation and transformation of form so that the final product is articulated in a theoretical and methodological support where the relationship between form and discourse can be appreciated [7]. Why is it important to study morphology? Man and architecture today is a product of globalisation and technology, facts that have allowed the evolution of construction, but have also generated the loss of architectural identity of different cultures and this is reflected in current production globally, so it is important to understand the new role and place of the subject in the modern world and architectural process. For example, Y S Yankovskaya mentions that;
“in Russia, as in the rest of the world, the morphological production of architecture has been related to the development of ideas of form under the influence of various philosophical and psychological concepts related to the perceiving individual and has progressed from concepts of visual perception by an abstract individual to those of the interpreting individual who humanises the architectural space with his or her presence; from the emphasis on the role of the subject/interpreter of language that assigns meanings to the material object, to the priority of the subject/client in architecture with its intersubjective interactions in the design process. Given this, the main role shifts to the specificity of interaction between the images that exist in the minds of various subjects/participants of the design process with respect to the future architectural object. These images reflect, with varying degrees of divergence, the set of ideas about the functions, structure, comfort, identity, and socio-cultural significance of the architectural object. It is therefore increasingly important to ensure that these user-preferred images are part of the morphological structure of the architectural object. Herein lies the importance of morphological study as there is a clear link between the image as a carrier of meanings and the morphology of the architectural object as the most significant direction of development for contemporary architectural theory” [5].
Who studies morphology in architecture today? The study of morphology in architecture is limited, very few studies are directly linked to the present research; for example, Yankovskaya [5], Fernando Fraenza [8], Clifford Geertz [9], Patricio Aguirre [10], Guillermo López [11], among others study morphology from a current or retrospective perspective; however, there are no validated studies of morphological prospective in architecture, which is where the value of the present research proposal lies.
1.2.2 Foresight scenarios
What are prospective scenarios? There are different ways of approaching the study of the future, for example astrology, prophecy, prognosis, prediction, forecasting, projection and prospective, the latter being the only one that approaches it from a scientific point of view, a multiple and indeterminate reality, obtained by the infinite possibilities of human action, reflected in the different projects, desires and fears of social groups, these are called prospective scenarios [12].
How are prospective scenarios proposed? This methodology analyses the phenomenon under study from a retrospective and current point of view, considering the influence of the social groups responsible for its development, to subsequently present the future reality in the form of scenarios [12], generally developed in three main phases:
Structural analysis: In this phase, the past and present are studied in search of patterns that project future scenarios.
Analysis of the actors’ game: This allows for the identification of the main social actors, as well as the spatial and temporal context in which they operate, which makes it possible to identify the existing relationships between each human action over time, thus promoting the creation of different prospective scenarios.
Scenario elaboration: Using the information collected in the previous phases, each researcher interweaves scientific evidence from the past, the present and projects probable futures. The plausibility of the scenarios created will depend on the quality of the evidence collected.
There are several methodological proposals for prospective scenarios, depending on the point of view of each author; however, for the present research, the six-pillar approach proposed by Sohail Inayatullah [6] is used, as its methodological process allows for the proper substantiation, creation and evaluation of prospective scenarios.
1.3 Objective
1.3.1 General
To project the morphological evolution of single-family dwellings towards the year 2100, using the scenario methodology for prospective studies, to obtain formal design strategies that can be adapted to a probable future.
1.3.2 Specifics
Identify the case studies to be included in the proposed analytical process, through bibliographic review and audio-visual sources.
Describe the morphology of the case studies through architectural surveys (floor plans, elevations, cuts, construction details, etc.) to establish the prospective design patterns and trends.
Apply the scenario methodology for prospective studies, which makes it possible to project the morphological evolution of single-family dwellings towards the year 2100.
“Methodology is the link between the subject and the object of knowledge. Without it, it is practically impossible to achieve the path that leads to scientific knowledge.”
The methodological process adopted for this research is based on the six pillars or stages for the study of Sohail Inayatullah’s future [6], the scope of the research is documentary and descriptive.
2.1 Foresight scenarios: Six-pillar approach
This methodology stems from the foresight process proposed by Voros [14] and the prospective approach derived from Dator’s Manoa school [15]. The six-pillars approach allows for the creation of scenarios based on scientific evidence from the past and present, using tools and methods articulated through praxis. The pillars are Planning (step 1), Anticipation (step 2), Timing the future (step 3), Deepening the future (step 4), Creating alternatives or scenarios (step 5), Transforming the future (step 6).
2.1.1 Step 1
To sketch the probable futures, the technique used in this stage is the futures triangle, through bibliographic and audio-visual documentary analysis, a probable future is established and described in the timeline with retrospective and prospective data, selecting more than 60 dwellings located in probable futures as case studies for the research.
2.1.2 Step 2
This stage has Molitor’s emerging themes analysis as its main method [16]. The aim of the emerging themes analysis in the present research was to identify the main historical events that triggered the innovations or produced a historical disruption that changed the future of an event, thus allowing the identification of the branches of probable futures.
2.1.3 Step 3
In the temporisation of the future, the macro-patterns, meso-patterns and micro-patterns of change are studied to establish the timeline and its projection into the future. In this stage, the formal and constructive patterns were studied through the analysis of the façades of the selected case studies.
2.1.4 Step 4
The fourth pillar is to lay the logical foundations of the future, using stratified causal analysis or CLA [17]. This technique analyses the social vision of the future at different levels of complexity by exploring and verifying possible causes and refining the hypotheses of the scenarios to be proposed in the next stage.
2.1.5 Step 5
Because of the previous stages, the most relevant prospective scenarios are obtained, which are presented to a panel of experts so that the information collected and processed can be validated by consensus, thus obtaining the probable futures.
2.1.6 Step 6
In this last stage, the prospective scenarios are corrected and validated again with the experts through the 1) prognostic; 2) retrospective and 3) transcendental methods to resolve conflicts that may arise between the proposed scenarios.
The results obtained by applying the scenario methodology for prospective studies using the six-pillar approach are summarised below.
3.1 Synthesis of the past, analysis of the present, projection of the future
Proposing a probable future is very risky if the necessary evidence is not available; therefore, the theories of the future put forward by the researchers Jim Dator [19] Nikolai Kardashev [20] and Sohail Inayatullah [6] are considered as a starting hypothesis in the present research.
Jim Dator in his studies of the future proposes a foresight model (see Figure 1) in which it is observed that social change can be classified into four recurring groups of images, stories or policies about the effects of social change, and the trend indicates the following:
Continuation (business as usual, further growth of the status quo).
Limits and discipline (behaviours to adapt to increasing internal or environmental limits).
Decay and collapse (system degradation or failure modes as crisis emerges).
Transformation (new technology, business or social factors that change the game).
Figure 1.
The four Dator futures, growth-based alternative scenarios (GBAS).
Nikolai Kardashev proposes three types of civilisations on a scale that can be quantified in units of power (watts) and represented on an increasing logarithmic scale. Figure 2 illustrates the types of civilisations per the proposed scale.
Figure 2.
Type of civilisations per the Nikolai Kardashev scale.
Sohail Inayatullah mentions that at the macro-global level, there are many images of the future; however, there are five archetypal ones;
Evolution and progress.
Collapse.
Gaia.
Globalisation.
Back to the future.
Organising the above scenarios around the architectural field, four hypothetical futures are proposed, through which the present morphological study revolves, as shown in Table 1:
Hypothetical futures
Vision of Sohail Inayatullah
Vision of Jim Dator
Vision of Nikolai Kardashev
Description of the future according to different visions
Chaos
Collapse
Decline and Collapse
There is the idea that man has reached his limits; in fact, he has surpassed them: global inequality, fundamentalism, tribalism, nuclear holocaust, climatic disasters: all point to a worsening future.
Back to the future
We need to go back to a simpler time, when the hierarchy was clearer, when technology was less disruptive, when the rules of the hierarchy were clear. The change is overwhelming: we have asked for direction and we need to get it back.
System degradation or failure modes as crisis emerges.
Gaia
Gaia
Limits and Discipline
Civilisation TYPE III
The world is a garden and cultures are its flowers, we need social technologies to repair the damage we have done to ourselves, to each other and to nature, and above all to be ever more inclusive. The next leap in evolution is based on collaboration between men and women, humans and nature, and humans and technology.
Behaviours to adapt to increasing internal or environmental limits.
A civilisation that is capable of harnessing all the available power of a single galaxy.
Progress
Evolution and progress Globalisation
Continued
Civilisation TYPE I
More technology, man as the centre of the world and the belief in rationality.
Barriers between nations and cultures can be removed if we achieve a free market system. Technology and the free movement of capital can make us all rich. Traditionalisms and dogmas are the barriers that prevent us from achieving a new world.
Business as usual, more growth of the status quo
A civilisation that is able to harness all the power available on a single planet.
Evolution
Evolution and progress
Transformation
Civilisation TYPE II
More technology, man as the centre of the world and the belief in rationality.
New technology, business or social game-changing factors.
A civilisation that is able to harness all the power available from a single star.
Table 1.
Hypothetical Futures described from the visions of Sohail Inayatullah, Jim Datos and Nikolai Kardashev.
Once the hypothetical futures have been established, the methodology of the six pillars described above is applied, in each of which the evidence validating each proposed scenario is examined in depth, the results obtained in each step are set out below:
3.1.1 Planning
In Figures 3–6, using the futures triangle tool, it can be seen how actions from the past emerge are linked to milestones in the present and future projections are generated. Both actions and milestones respond to bibliographical evidence researched from secondary sources, while future projection uses audio-visual information such as series, documentaries or films that allow a general visualisation of probable futures.
In this first stage, it is fundamental to lay the theoretical foundations with scientific evidence of past and present events analysed through the bibliographical review of more than one hundred secondary sources including scientific articles, press releases and books, using the technique of critical content analysis, which allowed us to articulate possible future scenarios created through audio-visual sources such as films, documentaries or series, analysing more than sixty case studies of houses or residences created in hypothetical futures. It can be observed that the triangles that present the most evidence are those of chaos and evolution, while GAIA and progress present less evidence, which allows us to establish a first tendency that will be defined in the following stages.
It is also important to note that in the triangles of futures it is observed that there are gaps in the line of the present, which psychologically indicates the level of uncertainty and concern of humanity in the face of events that cannot be predicted. In this sense, the future of progress is the most favourable and feasible for humans, while the chaotic future is the least desirable
3.1.2 Anticipation
Through the analysis of the emerging themes, a timeline of historical milestones or events in the past and present is established, which allows for the delineation and correlation of actions taken by humankind over time, projecting hypothetical futures. Figure 7 shows how events are intertwined, generating alternative prospective scenarios.
Figure 7.
Chronology of historical events and projection of future scenarios.
3.1.3 Temporisation of the future
Figure 8 shows the evolution of morphological patterns and the use of materials throughout history. Morphology is directly related to the technology and building materials available at the time.
Figure 8.
Historical analysis, evolution and prospective of architectural morphology.
Another important fact to highlight is the monumentality of the designs directly related to the gods at the beginning of the cultures and progressively public or residential buildings represent the architectural works of value, to carry out the analysis of all the buildings created and to be created would create several lines of research so this study focuses only on residential works. In this process of evolution of morphology, the first cultures used basic geometric shapes such as the triangle, the square and the trapezoid, and then incorporated the circle and arches, always guided by symmetry as a compositional principle. With the First Industrial Revolution, the creation of new materials and technological advances, man has been modifying the form since the contemporary age, the order and balance of symmetry changes for the complexity of parametric and organic designs, with 3D printing and artificial intelligence in the short- and medium-term architectural forms, will be totally unpredictable and complex, where the theory of chaos would gain value [117], because as has been observed throughout history we have gone from order to chaos and in the future, thanks to technological advances, from chaos to order.
3.1.4 Deepening the future
In this stage, the most plausible futures that could occur up to the year 2100 are defined and projected through stratified causal analysis. Table 2 shows the different hypotheses proposed and levels of causality in the futures analysed, providing a more concrete vision of each one of them, which allows the information processed in the previous stages to be articulated and refined.
Level of CLA
Chaos
Progress
Evolution
Gaia
Litany
P: The need for protection in a chaotic world.
P: Building materials and systems are not sustainable.
P: Resources are about to run out on Earth.
P: Global warming will destroy the planet.
S: Self-build housing.
S: Improve construction systems and materials.
S: New off-world energy sources must be sought.
S: Raise humanity’s awareness of respect for the planet.
Systemic causes
P: The supply and labour chain is broken.
P: There is no technology that improves building systems.
P: Countries seeking to improve technology depleted renewable resources.
P: The process of economic and technological development of countries is not sustainable.
S: Recycling materials and self-building
S: Generate research projects focused on sustainability.
S: Using technology to conquer interstellar space.
S: Promote bioclimatic and sustainable architectural projects.
Vision of the world
P: The world is chaotic and dangerous.
P: The technology is developing, but progress is slow.
P: The colonisation of other planets is a long way off.
P: If humanity does not stop polluting the planet it will cause irreversible damage.
S: We have to build strength with what is available.
S: Develop technologically sustainable building materials and systems.
S: Develop technology for interstellar travel.
S: Promoting the sustainable development of the world’s cities.
Myth/ metaphor
P: ‘The danger is constant and it’s out there’.
P: ‘Technology consumes a lot of non-renewable resources’.
P: ‘There is no life on other planets’.
P: ‘Climate change affects the natural process of life on Earth’.
S: ‘Strengthening housing strengthens survival’.
S: ‘Technology development must be sustainable’.
S: ‘Extraterrestrial technology would exponentially enhance our own’.
S: ‘Generating a symbiosis between architecture, energy and nature is possible’.
Conclusion
Form is not important in the face of the need for protection.
Form is based on function and purity of materials.
The shape and materials must allow for life outside the Earth.
Morphology is governed by the form and laws of nature.
Table 2.
Stratified causal analysis of proposed scenarios.
3.1.5 Creating alternatives or scenarios
In this stage, morphological proposals of the architectural works analysed are exhibited through different audio-visual sources that could occur in the proposed future scenarios.
3.1.6 Chaos
In this scenario, the tendency is towards an apocalyptic future, the product of nuclear, chemical and biological wars between world powers, motivated by the domination and extraction of natural resources. Faced with this scenario, dwellings are transformed into shelters whose morphology responds to the need for protection and the availability of resources at the time, with the semi-buried bunker and self-construction with recycled materials predominating, the morphological basis of design can be abstracted from the massiveness of the ziggurats, pyramids or mastabas with semi-buried chambers. The predominant materials are: reinforced concrete, iron, aluminium, glass, plastic and recycled wood. Figure 9 shows proposals for dwellings whose morphology responds to this future.
Figure 9.
Examples of residences in a future of chaos.
3.1.7 Progress
In the scenario of progress, humanity has reached Type I civilisation, in which with technological progress mankind takes advantage of all the planet’s resources in a sustainable way, houses are built with synthetic materials produced with high technology, nanomaterials, as well as artificial intelligence, play a primordial role in this future, morphologically the houses have parametric, and slender features with large glazed surfaces as can be seen in Figure 10.
Figure 10.
Examples of residences in a future of progress.
3.1.8 Evolution
With the horizon of the year 2100, the scenario of evolution is located in the Type II civilisation where humanity has managed to conquer and take advantage of the resources of the solar system, space travel and the colonisation of planets have taken place thanks to the technological advances of the time, the morphology of the dwellings responds to the need to live in interstellar space, the materials are highly resistant, nanotechnology, as in the previous scenario, plays a transcendental role in construction, the shapes are aerodynamic curves, the orthogonal portico is limited, and tubular or dome-type structures are the trend in this scenario. Figure 11 shows alternatives for housing in this future.
Figure 11.
Examples of residences in a future of evolution.
3.1.9 Gaia
The symbiosis between nature, man and architecture is the trend of this scenario, man has learned from past experiences and has managed to understand that nature always wins in any battle, the respect between communities and the environment is unique, the resources and materials are organic and sustainable, the morphology of housing is based on completely organic forms, whose design base could be the current organic and parametric architecture but ancestral construction systems. Figure 12 shows some proposals for housing whose morphology responds to this future.
Figure 12.
Examples of future GAIA residences.
3.1.10 Transforming the future
The prognostic technique, hindsight and the transcendence method allow the proposed futures to be validated through experts. According to Escobar Jasmine, expert judgement is defined as an informed opinion of people with a track record in the subject matter, who are recognised by others as qualified experts in the subject matter, and who can provide information, evidence, judgements and assessments. The number of judges to be used in a trial depends on the level of expertise and diversity of knowledge; however, the decision on what number of experts is appropriate varies among authors, with some suggesting a range of two to twenty experts, while others state that ten would provide a reliable estimate of the validity of the information [118]. The selection of the number and quality of experts were made as follows:
An expert profile was determined: Architect or researcher with a Master’s or PhD degree, who has a minimum of five consecutive years of experience in research on morphological design of single-family dwellings proven through publications.
From a pool of more than 50 potential candidates from all over the world, who were contacted by email requesting their participation, 30 candidates responded affirmatively with their willingness to participate.
The 30 experts were sent an interview questionnaire with key questions to validate the proposed scenarios, 19 completed the questionnaire and only 13 completed it without any errors. Therefore, taking the recommendation of Escobar Jasmine, the information collected was considered valid.
Figure 13 shows this validation, where chaos and GAIA are the most extreme undesirable and desirable futures, respectively, while progress and evolution are the average and possibly achievable futures by their events and forecasts.
By way of conclusion to the study, the following considerations are made:
The study of the future is at an incipient stage, and the uncertainty of mankind in the face of uncertainty is still great, however, under the position of Jules Verne; what one man can imagine, another man can make real, and it is considered that the present analysis will give a glimpse of probable futures.
The methodology of the study of the future under the approach of the six pillars allows at each stage to deepen the analysis and synthesize to finally validate it through experts, managing to consolidate and create a research with adequate methodological and scientific basis.
Because of the research, Figure 14 shows the morphological evolution, it is considered that by the year 2100 the form will evolve to curved parameters, complying with the laws that govern nature, this is supported by the theory of John Archibald [119] who states that “Space-time tells matter how to move; matter tells space-time how to curve” and in this case architecture is the art of creating or modelling space to satisfy the needs of man.
Figure 14.
Evolution analysis and morphological projective of residences in the year 2100.
This article is part of the Doctoral Thesis of the Doctoral Programme in Architecture of the National University of Cordoba, articulated to the formative research of the Catholic University of Cuenca, for this we thank the authorities and students of the third cycles who supported the process, especially Santiago Diaz, Victor Gomezcoello, Melany Guaman and Kevin Nieves.
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Written By
Marco Avila-Calle, Jorge Toledo-Toledo and Federico Córdova-González
Reviewed: 10 October 2022Published: 22 November 2022
Open access peer-reviewed chapter
