What Offshore Sailing Captains Teach Us about Leadership

Abstract

This qualitative and exploratory study examines how leadership is demonstrated in the context of offshore sailing through the sea stories of sailing captains’ experiences where there was potential for massive physical, psychological, or material consequences to the crew and/or the boat. The analysis of their stories shows that offshore sailing captains demonstrate the characteristics of in extremis leaders, consistent with prior research, which include inherent and intrinsic motivation, effective sense-making and sense giving during the extreme event, and developing a collaborative team without hierarchy built on trust engendered from demonstrating competence and confidence. The study also revealed a model of how these captains demonstrate dynamic system leadership through continuous learning and acting which prepares the captains to prevent or minimize the effects of the extreme situations they encounter at sea. Through their self-development, technical skills, emotional intelligence, planning and preparation, team management, and constant scanning of the environment they build situation awareness for quick risk assessment and decision-making in moments of in extremis. The captain’s goal at all times is to keep the crew and the boat safe, both physically and psychologically, through normal conditions and during in extremis events, using appropriate decisions and actions, and always remaining calm.

1. Introduction

This research examines an exceptional set of leaders I discovered during an offshore sailing trip from Newport, Rhode Island to Bermuda and on to St Martin in 2001. I considered these leaders worthy of research because many of them saw their crews safely through a Force 10 gale with dangerous winds of 50 miles per hour and up to 30-foot waves. They managed the boat, the crew, and the conditions in such a way that the crew felt safe and had a life-affirming experience despite the terror of the conditions. I felt that if these leaders could successfully lead through these conditions with a positive outcome, they would have lessons to teach other leaders who are trying to deal with increasingly complex environments and systems in a world that is increasingly volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous. I wanted to know how they developed their leadership to this level, and the actions and behaviors they used to lead their crews. During my research period, covid hit and many businesses were not prepared for this major change in our world. Those that adapted were able to survive, and some to flourish, while others fell by the wayside. If these captains can handle the always changing ocean, failures of the boat systems, extreme weather, and often inexperienced crew, they have a lot we can draw from to always look forward, adapt to conditions, and prepare for the worst possibilities that now seem to be more probable.

2. In extremis leadership as an initial theoretical framework

As I began to prepare this research, I was looking for a leadership concept that might fit these leaders as a starting point. I discovered In extremis leadership through Thomas Kolditz’ book based on his research at WestPoint with Army soldiers and their elite parachuting team [1]. In his thought on future research, he listed offshore sailing captains as potential in extremis leaders. This concept of in extremis leadership was further expanded on by Sean Hannah et al. in 2009 by developing a conceptual framework for in extremis leadership, and in 2010 by advancing a research agenda for studying in extremis leadership. In extremis leadership is leading as if your life depends on it. In extremis events and environments are those where the potential for serious risk of damage to life and property, even death, are possible [2]. These events create unique constraints, contingencies, and causations making these situations inherently contextualized with leadership where leadership actions can either improve or intensify the danger. More than a crisis, in extremis threats may reach an intolerable level where goals of life and safety are not just a high priority, but imperative; and, where the trust → performance linkage between leaders and followers is essential. Hannah et al. [3] have suggested that research needs to investigate in extremis leadership from a multi-level approach recognizing that leadership is a dynamic system of complex social interactions within the system, and between the system and its environment.

I propose that the leadership character and actions required in this pressurized in extremis system can teach us how leaders should act because in many ways our current world has become an in extremis environment. Pandemics, ground wars in Europe, climate instability, and economic hardship globally should wake us up to pay attention to how we behave in organizations. Laying people off and failing in business have serious consequences to peoples’ lives, and the Great Resignation has shown us that people do not want to participate in unhealthy organizations with poor management and toxic cultures [4].

Some of the main characteristics of in extremis leaders based on current research are [1, 2, 3] as follows. The ability to sense make in the midst of extreme events may be one of the most critical characteristics because most extreme events are unique, ill-defined, and emergent, and the leader must help the team make meaning out of complex, traumatic, and ever-changing danger. Inherent and intrinsic motivation drive these leaders to take responsibility and find a way in any situation to achieve the best possible outcome. Trust is one of the critical factors in leader-follower relationships and in certain in extremis situations trust may not be optional, and without it, a leader’s influence may be nil. Trust is built on demonstrated competence and confidence to the point where followers are willing to put their lives in his/her hands. There is no hierarchy. The leader builds comradery and cohesion through an understanding that “we are all in this together”. They are clear in their communication and assigning of roles and tasks, and will take command when the situation is urgent based on their expertise and trust rather than ego or authority.

I believed the sailing captains I was studying demonstrated these behaviors, so my research questions were: Do these offshore sailing captains demonstrate in extremis leadership? And, what more can they teach us about in extremis leadership and other aspects of leadership?

3. Methodology

Because I wanted to understand all that I could about the sailing captains, I used an exploratory approach to my research soliciting their sea stories through a semi-structured interview process in which I asked them to tell me stories of when they had gone through in extremis events beginning from the preparation for the trip through to the successful outcome. Because the captains downplayed the extremity of the events that they had experienced, I probed with questions such as, “Tell me about the worst storm you went through”, “What was your worst experience with a crew member?”, “Was there ever a time that you feared for your life?” Additional probing questions were used to guide them through the timeline of the story as well as demographic information to understand their background and how they entered their sailing careers.

Although I solicited for captains from several on-line professional captains’ directories and organizations, my sample was mainly a sample of convenience from Offshore Sailing Opportunities, with additional captains added from their suggestions. I especially requested their suggestions for younger captains, as my initial sample was skewed toward the more mature captains. The maturity of the sample was intentional and appropriate as I wanted to study good captains and good leadership. The younger captains were added to give me a sense of whether the same leadership qualities also carried into the younger generations.

The Zoom interviews lasted between one and 2 hours and were recorded and then transcribed. The transcribed interviews were open-coded with descriptions and categories developed as I progressed in keeping with this exploratory research. I used QDA Miner to code and analyze the interviews, and to develop main themes and categories. My initial analysis was comparing my results to the in extremis literature. My subsequent analysis was to discover what other literature also pertained and to see if there was an overall story that the data was telling me.

4. The sailing captains

I interviewed 18 sailing captains, three of whom were female. The ages ranged from 35 to 73, with the average age being 58½. Half of the sample is married, four were divorced, and five never married. The geographic dispersion was concentrated on the East Coast of the United States from Florida to Maine with pockets in the sailing communities of Newport, Rhode Island and Annapolis, Maryland. Also included were interviews from Sweden, New Zealand, and South Africa where captains were on their travels or at part-time residences. Most of the sample was American, although three of the captains had been born in Australia or the UK.

I had sailed with about half of these captains before, and several had been part of the trip to St Martin where we encountered the Force 10 gale just north of Bermuda which inspired this research. One of the unique aspects of these captains was that most of them had sailed with crew members that they had just met or who had paid to be on the trip. This created a need to develop instant trust and rapport. It also further pressurized the system as they headed offshore, some for the first time. Another interesting aspect of these captains was that many of them did not believe they had stories to tell that would fit the in extremis definition. On probing further, they were able to tell stories which included cyclones and hurricanes (7 incidences), unpredicted serious weather (6), very high winds over 35 mph (13), high waves up to 35 feet with the occasional higher one, or confused seas (11), Gulf Stream and heavy currents with contrary winds (8), and large mammals (3). These conditions can result in taking on water (6), knock downs (5) when the boat tips over sideways and the mast hits the water, and torn sails (2). As opposed to high winds, you can also be becalmed and go nowhere or drift backwards for days. Captain Murray actually drifted back 16 miles in 1 day. In addition, there are other ships and man-made obstacles such as buoys and windmills that can be hit or be near misses (11). Boats are fallible, and these captains encountered problems due to bad boat design and unfamiliar layout (10), major equipment or boat failures (32), engine problems and failures (9), loss of electricity and electronic instruments including communications (4), and fires on board (2). As Captain AJ remarked, it’s not a vacation and there is no PAUSE button.

Captain Mary said, “it’s like childbirth, you suffer and then it’s over and the rest is beautiful.” She also believes that everyone has a different tolerance for terror. Three of the captains accounted for this lack of immediate memory of in extremis events as more of a normalization process. Over their career, situations that were difficult or extreme when they first started out as a captain, and which they handled adequately, were not as difficult when encountered later in their career, and might even seem tame in retrospect.

Based on the above findings, the sailing captains I interviewed qualified for leading in an in extremis environment. The potential for serious environmental, boat, and crew risks identified provided a lens for studying leadership in a dynamic system with these captains where mistakes or miscalculations could result in consequences ranging from an uncomfortable trip to a life-threatening disaster. My findings also compared favorably with pervious findings related to in extremis leaders, including the attributes listed above and exhibited in the detailed findings outlined below. Captain Adam explained the attitudes that make some captains unsuccessful in extremis leaders:

I’ve worked with some particular ones [captains] who were really, really good [sailors], but God, they’re fucking just shitty leaders. You know, they don’t know how to work with people: they don’t know how to bring a crew together. They just don’t have this sense of “Hey, we’re all here together. We’re all here for each other.”

More than experience or skill, Captain Adam says that someone who “just kind of naturally wears the weight well is easier to follow than somebody skilled and maybe has more experience, … but just doesn’t have that sense of like, yeah, I’ll go into battle with you.” On the sea, it is all up to these captains. The crew is dependent on them for a safe trip. The captains, like any in extremis leader, cannot hide behind layers of bureaucracy or policy manuals. Their competence and authenticity are entirely exposed through in extremis events.

The lesson for leadership in general is to promote into potential leadership roles people who have a natural sense of command and a high tolerance for the risky and unknown. Find those who can take their previous experience in difficult situations and learn from them, and normalize them into their way of sensemaking and sense giving in every situation so that the outcome is favorable for the whole team and organization.

5. The sailing captains’ dynamic system of leadership

In addition to finding that the sailing captains exhibited previously researched and identified attributes of in extremis leadership, I found a picture of how these captains participated in an iterative system of learning and development, supported by their actions and experience, in this complex environment. Figure 1 provides an overview of the complexity involved in any offshore sailing trip. This is the system that these captains operate in. The model I derived from the sailing captains’ stories of dynamic system leadership (Figure 2) shows the process by which the sea captains develop themselves and manage this complex undertaking.

Figure 1.

The complex dynamic system of an offshore sailing trip.

Figure 2.

Dynamic system leadership of sailing captains.

In extreme situations, it has been shown that followers want someone who they trust because of their competence and integrity to take charge and be decisive with swift action. Recent research shows that a “both-and” approach to leadership in the complex demands and paradoxical situations of today is perceived as most effective balancing the times for participative versus decisive behavior [5]. During times outside of crisis, these captains like to collect input, share information and consult, and empower and challenge the crew to take responsibility (6). When an extreme event occurs, they transition from teacher and collaborator to leader and commander in a way that inspires confidence and cooperation. As a personally responsible leader (8), they are able to take command and make swift decisions because they are in tune with the boat and all its systems and people (26). They are a fully integrated part of the system and have a natural leadership and command presence. They are comfortable in their authority (15). They know that they are the captain, and the best person for the job (7).

This model represents a dynamic system of learning and leadership action reflecting how these captains live as leaders as seen from a high level and holistic perspective. It is a leader-centric model focusing on how the sea captains develop themselves into reliable captains that their ever-changing crew can trust to keep them safe. It is a model of personal responsibility for their leadership development. My preferred definition of leadership includes the requirement that followers be willing to follow them during tough situations. On the leader’s part, this requires them to develop those qualities that will result in followers trusting their competence and care for their safety as their captain.

There are three major components of the model roughly reflecting learning and development, the dynamics of the stable offshore passage, and the extreme event dynamics. The system is complete or closed in that all of the activities also circle back and contribute to learning and development in a continuous feedback loop and learning process. Key skills or talents are highlighted in each component (blue boxes), and internal cognitive processes (pink ovals) show how they are integrated or brought together. Because the real-world dynamics of what happens in offshore passages are so complex, this model only represents a sliver of all of the possibilities reinforcing that leadership is a complex, diverse, emergent, ever-changing relational process. The model, therefore, just represents a two-dimensional attempt to represent a segment of this complexity and provide one layer of understanding.

6. What happens before an offshore trip

The world we live in is a dynamic system. The world of offshore sailing that these captains operate in is a dynamic system. One might say that the captains’ system is a limited one because it is just sailing offshore with only a few people at a time for a week or so. That is true, but it is a highly compressed system, and the captains have maximized the way that they lead and deal with their in extremis environment. In the world of in extremis, failure to anticipate, address, and conquer problems as they arise can lead to death of oneself and others. The ability to cope with and manage crises and extreme events does not happen in the moment, at least not very often without divine intervention. There is a significant buildup to that moment, a lifelong buildup that prepares one to become an in extremis leader. That development appears to be wholly self-instigated and matured as these captains recognized an internal call to be a captain, and recognized their natural ease with command. They took the responsibility to learn as much as possible and to keep learning everything that would help them take care of their followers and accomplish the mission of bringing them back safely.

The careers of these sea captains is built on their passion for the sea, being a captain, and helping others experience the joy they have in what they do. Captain AJ expressed the wonder he feels:

But it is adventurous, and boy it is beautiful. …You'd see stuff that nobody sees. You know, the night times, I've seen so many, I can't even tell you all the spectacular things I've seen at night. During the day, waves coming from nowhere, swirls, fishes, whales, stuff. You know, it's just crazy out there when you get out in the middle. Rainbows and quick thunder storms in the morning. It's just, you can't explain that to your friends.

This passion is vital in driving a leader’s growth, and resonates with the Third Factor/Winning Factor [6]. Peter Jensen has studied self-initiative toward learning and developing while working with Olympics coaches and athletes. He sees it as the third factor in the development of individual human beings that transcends culture, upbringing, and genetics. He has called this the winning factor, which is the role individuals choose to play in their development beyond nature and nurture. It is the factor of choice that determines what we become. Jensen uses the term “third factor” to talk about self-direction and the development of self-awareness and self-responsibility which encourages people to get passionate about developing themselves.

Life experiences and their response to them is critical in how a leader is formed and the kind of leaders they become [7]. These experiences need to be analyzed, reflected on, and incorporated into their self-construct as a leader so they can be drawn upon later. The captains spent time questioning and reflecting on their experiences (8). At least two had written books about their experiences which formalized their reflections and shared them with the rest of the world. What they learned was also put into practice at every opportunity (20); on the boats they command, running a sailing school, teaching at several large sailing schools, and coaching a university-level sailing team (11). Hands-on training was very important as a student and teacher (11).

In addition to passion as a motivator, becoming a great leader is largely a matter of conscious choice [8]. Many of the captains reported that they read and studied about sailing, sailing history, and seamanship (11). All of the interviewees requested a copy of the study when it was completed.

6.1 Development of self-efficacy

A leader’s belief in their self-efficacy to perform well in a crisis is driven by many factors including prior and vicarious success experiences [9]. Bandura’s [10] social learning model proposes that prior successful experiences (enacted experience), vicarious experience (modeling), persuasion, and emotional arousal all add to someone’s self-efficacy for a particular task. Other forms of vicarious learning are running scenarios (13), a form of modeling, and hearing other people’s sea stories (9), a form of embodied narrative sensemaking [11] which is an ongoing embodied process of interpretation of self and experience in which we cannot separate ourselves, our senses, our body, and emotions. They are the captain.

Crisis leader self-efficacy is also benefited by divergent thinking which is a key component of creative thought and flexibility in problem solving under various conditions, mainly in the generation of multiple alternative solutions [9]. The captains practiced critical thinking (12) as well as challenged others’ unquestioned patterns of thinking (9), and challenged their crew to do the same (2). A lot of what they learned about leadership was through observation, evaluation, and emulation (7), another form of modeling. Sailing with other experienced sailors and captains (7) added to their direct and vicarious experience.

6.2 Mental and emotional resources

All of this initial and ongoing learning was integrated into their self-construct and provided them with self-efficacy for being a captain, as well as mastery of the skills of sailing and seamanship. It also provided them with the emotional intelligence with which to manage themselves (11) and their crew (39). It also developed a preventative mindset of leaving nothing to chance (18), which led to their many practices of thorough planning and preparation before each passage.

Dr. Tony Kern writes in his book, Blue Threat: To Err is Inhuman, “The world seems stable, so our situation awareness grows dull, and we lose our respect for things that can bite” [12]. He believes it is easier for us to address The Red Threat, which are external threats such as those found in an in extremis environment, than The Blue Threat which he used to collectively refer to the internal obstacles such as poor planning, inadequate communication, and other “human errors.” He believes The Blue Threat is responsible for more failed outcomes than external factors, and the transition from complacency to catastrophe can occur in 20 seconds or less. Complacency creeps in through the illusion of control, overreliance on past experience, tolerance of errors that seem to have no consequences, apathy and loss of respect for the environment, compromised personal discipline and casual noncompliance, and normalization of deviance. There are clear examples of this happening in our world today. The awareness of The Blue Threat that these captains have experienced within themselves may be part of what has motivated their learning and development, the resulting preventative mindset (18), and the attitude that they leave nothing to chance (2).

Captain Adam’s near-death experience, when his boat hit a wave and fell out from under him, taught him to never assume that you are safe, and always follow the safety protocols of wearing a life jacket and being attached to the boat by a harness and tether, especially when on watch alone. Captain AJ’s comments show how seriously he takes The Blue Threat and safety:

Look at last year's --- Race. … They were, in my opinion … it was probably the most inexperienced group of people out on --- boats. You know, they really opened it up to, not inexperienced sailors, but inexperienced in ocean sailing. And, how many people didn't have life jackets? Every time I saw a video, and they're doing 20 knots at sea in open water, and nobody's wearing a life jacket? That's all new because, you know in the past couple years that never would have happened. And, it was just a mindset where, you know, until something, until Vesuvius blows again, people will forget about it.

These captains know Mount Vesuvius will erupt again. They know that it is as irresponsible to ignore The Blue Threat, as it is to ignore The Red Threat, and they try to make their crews aware of their personal Blue Threat by challenging them. Captain Andy says, “One of my first questions to the crew is, ‘What is going to keep you on the boat offshore?’ And, inevitably, everybody answers, ‘Oh, my life jacket and my tether.’ And that answer’s wrong. I say to them, ‘What is going to keep you on the boat is you, and your ability to keep yourself on the boat.’” He emphasizes this because he knows that

The biggest emergency that I worry about, the two things that we cannot do, and this is how I've been training my skippers as we expand the business; the two sort of highest risk things that we have to prevent at all costs: number one is a man overboard situation. We just cannot allow that to happen. And, number two is an accidental gybe, because an accidental gybe can cause a man overboard or can bring down a mast. You know, those are two very high consequence things. If we avoid doing those two things, then we'll probably have a successful passage.

6.3 Emotional intelligence

Many, many studies have researched emotional intelligence as a key component of good leadership, and show that emotion can serve rationality rather than interfere with it, as was first theorized. Emotional intelligence, as defined by Salovey et al. [13] is the ability to perceive and express emotions, and to understand and use them to foster personal growth. It is the ability to perceive, appraise, and express emotions accurately; the ability to access and generate feelings to facilitate thinking; the ability to understand emotionally laden information; and use emotion relevant knowledge to manage one’s own emotions and the emotions of others. The intelligence in emotional intelligence is to use this ability to promote growth, well-being, and adaptive social relations.

Although not measured with a recognized instrument in this study, attributes of emotional intelligence were displayed by the captains in remaining calm and positive in dangerous situations (27) both to maintain their own emotional control (11), and because they knew that it would impact the emotional state of the crew. This showed a deep understanding of their responsibility to be a cogent decision maker as well as a touchstone for the crews’ emotions. They admitted that they had often been afraid, but they had managed that fear (19) so that they did not show it to the crew, and remained calm and in control. The captains actively managed the attitudes of the crew (39) and saw that as one of their biggest responsibilities. They even downplayed the danger and risk to the crew (24) knowing nothing would be gained by fear. Captain Adam’s quote reflects emotional intelligence as well as self-efficacy:

I] feel like it's a natural fit for me. And, I think that helps a lot of people when they come on the boat. They see the ease and confidence, and competence of the skipper, I think it helps the crew be better crew because then it's just one less thing we can be acrimonious about. I mean, if you're going offshore with somebody that you have some reservations about you're putting energy into your reservations and you're questioning your guy, you're not putting your energy into, let's say prep. So managing the boat, and managing the crew, then managing yourself and being aware of your situation, and spatial awareness and situational awareness, and weather and learning, and all that. Because all of that doesn't matter if the one person in charge of the group you have doubts about.

All of these experiences and learning have instilled in these captains the knowledge that the most important work they do is before the trip starts, which is discussed next.

6.4 Planning and prevention mindset

The key to any safe passage is planning and prevention. As most of the captains stated, they have two goals for a passage: Get the crew there in one piece and get the boat there in one piece. As Captain Andy puts it, “it’s ironic that you want to hear people’s sea stories, when my whole motivations are, how do we prevent having those kinds of sea stories in the first place.”

Eighteen times having a preventative mindset was mentioned, and 19 times it was mentioned that the captains plan to avoid potential dangers and problems. Planning to avoid risks, in particular, waiting for a good weather window was mentioned 16 times. Practicing good seamanship was also often brought up (16). Seamanship is the code and practice of excellence for all mariners and includes all the aspects of boating. As Oxford defines it, it is the skill, techniques, or practice of handling a ship or boat at sea. It is the bible or operators’ manual for all mariners. Many of the captains mentioned good seamanship as being essential to being a good captain (12). Two key components of good seamanship and prevention are preparation before the trip and situation awareness during the trip.

The prevention of extreme events was a pervasive theme in every captain’s modus operandi and was particularly important in the planning and preparation before the trip. As Captain Andy puts it, preparation is 99% of the work we do in getting the boats ready, which the crew never sees; “The passage itself is the execution. If you’ve done all the preparation, the execution’s the easy part.” Those that run their business from their own boats, or are fulltime paid captains on sailboats, have total control over the preparation of the boats before a passage. However, delivery skippers often see the boats they will deliver for the first time just before the trip. Several of the captains (3) told stories of turning down boats because of missing safety equipment or the unsafe condition of the boat.

The inspection, attention to, and care of essential equipment on the boat were mentioned 16 times by the captains. Bringing spare parts, additional safety equipment, and provisioning fuel and food based on a worst-case scenario, was also brought up 14 times. The captains (3) have their own essential kits that they bring on board with them including sea anchors (used to hold the boat steady against the waves in a storm), GPS, radios, satellite (sat) phones, and so forth. One captain even brings a spare pump with him in case they take on water. Captain Murray had brought a substantial wooden plug with him on the way back from Japan to Australia, and it became essential when the boat sprung a significant leak after a patchwork, glued-on piece of the hull was blown out by a wave. Loading the boat properly for balance, but also in reverse order of need, was also mentioned as well as lashing and stowing everything so that objects will not be flying around or go overboard when the boat starts flailing in bad weather (2).

Several captains (4) talked about having checklists for many different aspects of the trip just to get everything they need to remember out of their heads and onto paper so that nothing is overlooked. The captains have a set of practices and mantras that also help them keep safety at the forefront, and they emphasize to the crew how important it is to pay attention to safety. Many of the captains mentioned constantly running scenarios in their minds of what could happen and how they would deal with it (13), and one also uses “what-if” scenarios to get the crew engaged in the joint responsibility of keeping everybody and the boat safe. They also mentioned contingency plans (7), and several have written emergency protocols (2) that they post near the navigation station next to the watch schedule. Taking care of the small things before they become big things (9), and getting control of and containing problems as soon as possible (17) are also cardinal rules. They have seen how small things, like a missing stopper knot (a knot at the end of a line that prevents the line from going through a hole) can cascade into really bad situations when that line goes overboard, gets caught in the propeller, and disables the boat.

One of the essential practices, especially since many of these captains sail with a relatively inexperienced crew, is Wake the Captain (15). This is stressed over and over because the captain has to be quick to handle any emergent situation. So, they ask to be woken up if anything changes, if the crew sees something unusual, or if they just do not know--wake the captain. This is critical because the captain cannot handle a situation about which they are unaware. Captain Murray mentioned being woken up 17 times on one trip by a woman who was just learning about sailing offshore. When she apologized at the end of the trip for waking him up so much, he told her he had never felt safer and more comfortable sleeping because he knew she would wake him up if there were a problem. Sleeping is essential on any long voyage, and captains know that they may be up for days if there is a significant situation or storm. Many have learned to reserve themselves for those emergencies so they can always be ready and have clear judgment when events happen (5), and by not standing a regular watch so they can be awake and available to all watches.

Communication is a key component of prevention. Several captains have regularly scheduled crew meetings en route to keep everybody informed of the current weather situation, the boat’s course and sail plan, and to keep everybody on the same page, “because information shared is power” and people can react correctly and quickly if they are fully informed. Captain Dave cooks dinner each day and has a crew meeting over dinner. Captain Kelsey uses group communication meetings to have people share what they think is going well and what could be improved directly with the person next to them, and even orchestrates these meetings to address and resolve crew interaction problems.

Constant monitoring of the weather is essential for captains and is much easier these days with satellite phones and laptops and more marine weather available online. The captains mentioned being prepared for weather upfront (8), and also mentioned that they are much more conservative now and more quickly go to reduced sail area to keep the boat under control (13) to prevent damage and be a more comfortable ride for the crew. Slowing the boat down (5), or heaving-to (6) to stop the boat by back-winding the sails and setting the rudder in the opposite position causing the boat to drift in place, allows them to wait out serious wind and waves and has become more of a ready option. Captain Murray has been reported to heave-to and cook dinner in 70 knots of wind. Captain Richard has gotten into the routine of prepping and rigging the storm sails before any trip, even if no bad weather is expected, because he does not want to leave anything to chance.

This derived model of dynamic system leadership of sea captains’ documents that intentional and purposeful self-development toward mastery, through various and many methods of learning, builds self-construct and self-efficacy. This is the foundation on which these captains practice dynamic leadership of the complex system outlined in Figure 1. Their complex self-construct and self-efficacy enable them to manage the system and the crew through more normal times and also rise to the occasion to see everyone safely through in extremis events.

As stated before, this derived model is simplistic when compared to the actual complexity of managing any human system in an extreme environment or our VUCA (volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous) world. However, it attempts to show a long-term, longitudinal, and high-level view of some of the components and aspects that contribute to how these leaders develop into successful offshore sailing captains. The model represents a system of continuous learning and acting that reflects the captains’ lived experience, as told in their sea stories.

There are several key lessons for leadership in general we can take from this analysis. Anticipate all possible situations and problems and develop plans to deal with them including having the right equipment and backups readily available. Inform and prepare your team for future possibilities including soliciting additional scenarios from them. Prevent or minimize the consequences of potential future events by setting up systems to deal with them and ways of adapting as events unfold. A covid lesson as well. Keep everybody informed and participating in all aspects of the organization so that they can be aware of the goals, know what actions to take in many cases, and be prepared to follow commands when urgency requires it. Build trust, communication, and cohesion when things are stable so they are accessible when things get rough.

6.5 Situation awareness and scenario running

After you have anticipated and prepared for as many potential risks and situations as you can, you then need to monitor the environment for the current situation and to anticipate as things may be changing. Captains are constantly vigilant and always scanning for information and changes in the environment (17) and assessing their whole system (11). They are trying to spot emerging signals (7) and anticipate what is ahead and what could happen (17). They know where everybody is and what they are doing (4). While they were racing one Thursday evening, Captain Hank’s wife said to him, “It doesn’t matter how many people you have on-board, and how much you drink, you always know where everybody is and what’s going to happen, you know, when you tack or gybe.” Captain Mary believes that skill is hardwired in her, maybe from being a mother. Captain Niles says, “You can never let your guard down. That’s it, that’s it. You can never let your guard down. And I actually never do. I’m kind of always, you know, was it my daughter called me a meerkat because I’m always sticking my head up and looking around.”

The captains’ situation awareness is aided by being in complete tune with the boat and the whole system (26). The captains say they sleep with one eye open (6), and Captain Dave reported even hearing a pin drop:

The biggest failure we had on the boat, I think, was the main sail outhaul shackle pin dropped out and fell on the deck, which interestingly enough, when the pin hit the deck it was right over my head while I was in the aft cabin sleeping. And the person on watch didn’t hear it, and it woke me up from a sound sleep.

The continuous learning and awareness include recognizing the physical and mental states of the crew and helping them manage their health and even their fears by giving them a job or focusing them on a task, even if it is meaningless, like pumping water to nowhere (Captain Kelsey). The wisdom of the captains was demonstrated by the ease with which they discussed their mistakes and what they had learned from them (35). When asked when they knew they were “a sailor,” two of these longtime skippers said they were still not there.

7. Managing the routine part of the passage

Once a passage begins, the captain is sensemaking continuously first by evaluating his or her crew (10) as resources, continually scanning the environment and the boat system to gain and keep situation awareness (21), and running scenarios through their mind of all possibilities that could happen (13). A key part of that sensemaking is the crew’s mental and emotional health. Captain Hank describes the process of managing the crew, and how he uses his emotional intelligence throughout the trip:

Well, one of the big things you can control is just your attitude about it and how you treat other people. You see how easily it could spiral out of control, and when there is an issue going on and all of a sudden, the people aren't getting together, you know, to work on an outcome. So, you know, certainly you've got to hold yourself or watch yourself when stupid things happen, that you don't get into the blaming thing, and you just deal with what you've got and get through it. So, that's really all you can control after things start going bad, is just your attitude, and how you keep the crew together as opposed to letting things fall apart. So, that's really all you've got there, all you've got control of. The biggest one is really just don't ask anybody to do something that you wouldn't do. I've found just by jumping in or getting things started, it’s how you get things done rather than delegating so much. I've seen the skippers that do just kind of stand there and point and tell, and that might work for some people, but I've found that usually jumping in and then doing it, and then having people work along with you towards the common goal is my better way of doing things, rather than just delegating all the time. And, I think people appreciate that too.

Captain Nick also finds a way of including even the non-functioning members of the crew to keep them emotionally part of the team:

But that's really what it's about. It's taking in what’s there--your resources. Certainly, keeping your own cool to manage them, because that's your crew. And, of course we do all of these things with no professional crew, just OPO people, they're just people. Even professional crew is just people. It's more observation. … It starts there managing and learning about people … who's gonna be an asset and who's not and when I take newbies... I take newbies that are eager, able-bodied newbies that want to learn. … So, you build your crew from there ... And, you look at people, especially if you're stuck in port for a day or two, and see if they're resourceful, see if they pitch in, see how well they get along with other people, and you just build your own thing. But everybody has assets, and you have to learn how to use them. And, it makes them fulfilled as well.

During the passage, the captains focused on managing their crew, taking care of their well-being, compensating for their inexperience, managing those who were emotionally hijacked by the experience, and generally trying to make the trip as pleasant and meaningful as possible. They prepared the crew, kept everyone informed of what was going on, and tried to balance safety with allowing people to try things and learn. What enables them to do all that and keep things as normal as possible is their hyper-vigilance to maintain situation awareness, and their constant scenario running to prepare themselves to act automatically, or with automaticity, when extreme things happen.

For these sea captains, part of who they are is scanning and assessing their environment (17) looking for anything that will forewarn them of a coming problem (19), and performing a continuous risk assessment of the whole system (11). They are in tune with the whole boat system and the crew (26). Captain Patrick describes it:

So, just knowing the sounds and the roll and the rhythm, and the smashing of the waves ... I had a pretty good sense of what was happening topside, and especially with the voices. … But, just the sounds from the crew, and the boat, everything sounded pretty well. …Even on pleasant sailing days, you have to know where everybody is on the boat, and pretty much what they're doing, especially when they're topside. … So, you're, you're always looking ahead for danger signals. That is situational awareness--making sure that nobody screws up that's going to hurt somebody else.

The following are lessons I believe can be applied to all leadership. Always maintain situation awareness even when things seem calm or normal because there will be a storm or problem just over the horizon, and you need to train yourself to look ahead and recognize emerging patterns so you can anticipate how to handle them. During routine times, prepare your followers for what might be ahead. Enlist them in brainstorming possible events or changes to the environment and the business, and how to best adapt to any changes. Build your systems and business practices to be nimble and easily adjust to new business conditions. Always keep your followers in the loop on all that is happening in the business tactically and strategically so they can independently adjust their areas of responsibility to the course and keep the whole organization in alignment. Never fall behind in your housekeeping and maintenance tasks so there are no distractions or interference when you have to act urgently.

8. Evaluating, managing, and leading the crew

Crew reactions and actions can contribute to the difficulties captains have to manage, or they can provide real help and positivity. Captains report different ways that they assess their crews for physical fitness, sailing competency, and psychological stability. The captains that run sailing expeditions as a business send out questionnaires to their paying crew to find out what their fitness routines are, and if they can do basic things like getting up and down from sitting and crawling on all fours. Sailing resumes are often part of the selection of crew members, but many captains discount them for sailing experience on lakes or close to shore or sailing courses taken on weekends. Skype and phone interviews are also used to select the crew (4). Many captains would rather have someone steady and eager than “experienced” sailors because they principally need them to be able to follow direction and stand a watch.

Captain Murray claims that he can tell within 5 minutes if a crew member knows anything about sailing. In an emergency, most captains will handle problem solving, and just need a crew member to drive the boat or pump water. Their assessment/evaluation of the crew tells them whom they can rely on in those situations, and to what extent, both physically and for boat handling. The captains assess the crew through observation (6) particularly on the helm (steering wheel), asking questions (5), and boat handling exercises and drills (4), among other things.

8.1 Crew behavior and incidents

The reason that these captains do the above assessments is that they want to avoid some of the incidents that they reported in their sea stories. The majority of captains say that they have had good crews for the most part (12). They found some exceptional crew members that demonstrated competence and confidence (5), were cheerful, came up with ideas to solve problems (4), felt that they had a life-expanding experience (6), or had just gone to “graduate school” for offshore sailing (2). However, they also reported crew members with debilitating seasickness which made them unable to function (12) even though captains (5) reported stressing taking seasickness medicine before the trip. There were 11 incidents of crew members ignoring the captain’s safety briefings and warnings and doing unsafe things. Other problem crew members were the racers, know-it-alls, idea men, instructors, and alpha dogs (11) whose egos interfered with their listening and learning from the captains. Fortunately, they were more annoying than dangerous in most cases.

More dangerous were the crew members who became belligerent, passive/aggressive, experienced extreme stress and freaked out or shut down (21), or thought they were going to die (4). Drugs and alcohol problems were minimally reported (3). The captains also feel it is their responsibility to monitor the crew for dehydration, proper eating, and sleeplessness and fatigue (9) so that they do not become ill during the trip. They see that as part of their role as caretaker or mother for the crew (13). In the middle, there were crew members who just became immune, adapted, or just accepted whatever happened, and even laughed after the tension was released (4).

There were also crew members whose behavior and mistakes could have had very serious consequences for the safety of the whole crew and the boat, including sleeping or inattentiveness at the helm when driving the boat resulting in near-miss collisions (4), and accidental gybes (when the main sail’s heavy metal boom swings across the boat in an uncontrolled manner) which can severely damage the boat and injure the crew (7). The captains reported 11 cases where they had to restrain or contain a crew member including confining them to their cabin and in one case, having to physically restrain someone. Captain Richard reported, “And, as we lost sight of Monhegan, one of my crew guys went nuts. He attacked the helmsman. He wanted to go back. So, I tied him up because he was violent and put him in his bunk, and we went back to Monhegan, and I put him off the boat and said, ‘How you get home, pal, is your problem. You’re a threat to the boat.’”

Even though the captains have had to take quick and decisive action to protect themselves, the crew, and the boat, they are relatively sanguine about it. In some cases, the person has apologized. Still, the captains seem to understand that not everyone can handle “the wilderness,” as Captain Mary calls it, recognizing that “most people have no desire to be out in the middle of the ocean with strangers on a boat.” Captain Murray is still friends with someone who fell off his boat three times and had to be retrieved, even though he called him a “dickhead” and banned him from his boat. Several captains (3) mentioned blacklisting crew members that they would not want on their boats again for various reasons. Captain Reggie had to deal with a revolt: “So, when you have a revolt on board, the thing is then to confine those sectors, those people to their cabins, and not have them tampering with the crew. Or, like my master said on the mountain, so that they don’t contaminate the rest of the group.”

On the flip side, many captains also have Preferred Crew lists, and 13 captains reported sailing with repeat crew members who have sailed with them before, and 11 mentioned crew members that have become lifelong friends. Even one crew member had surreptitiously disobeyed the captain’s orders and put more sail up just before a storm hit, resulting in a knockdown with people being thrown from their bunks. She eventually became a lifelong friend of Captain Murray. However, she had to be confined to her cabin for 3 days until he felt he could trust her again and that she had learned a serious lesson.

Dealing with difficult crew members in these tough and often dangerous situations requires a strong sense of command and responsibility toward the rest of the crew, and may be a critical aspect of in extremis leadership. It is also an important trait for any leader that they are willing to make the tough decisions and choices in dealing with problem team members in a way that deals directly with the individual and seems fair to the rest of the team so as not to taint them.

9. Managing the stable part of the passage

The captains are scanning the environment, developing situation awareness, and running scenarios as they are sailing under routine conditions enabling them to recognize an extreme situation as early as possible and be prepared for it. As Captain Adam explains,

I play that scenario in my head all the time when I'm on another boat, or I have different crew, or it's a different environment, or different weather conditions. And I usually run these worst-case scenarios constantly, day in and day out, 24/7, like running these scenarios through your brain. When bad things do happen, they're not as traumatic, because you've kind of already imagined it, or you're able to assimilate portions of different scenarios into the scenario that you're actually in. … Or maybe, it's just mentally I'm more prepared. I'm better at being in that situation, so when the life-threatening event is happening, I'm not over reacting. I'm not reacting. I've anticipated it to a certain degree, and I'm able to pull out different skills from past experiences and I'm able to work through it because I've already been through it in my head.

The transition from normal to extreme means the captain goes into command mode. When things are normal, the captain may be more of a teacher, caretaker, and manager/organizer. They know they are always responsible for the system, but they can be more collegial and participative (8) in managing the team and appear more easy-going. They have the time and inclination to try to help people learn by balancing correcting people constantly with letting small risks go and using them as teachable moments (3). It is a constant assessment of peoples’ attitudes and their behaviors to detect anything that could threaten the crew or the boat. The captains have to manage the two together using their emotional intelligence, but also knowing that small things can cascade into big things if not controlled. Just forgetting to tie a knot at the end of a line caused a series of problems for Captain Hank resulting in the line going in the water and getting caught in the propeller and stopping the engine.

The captains always maintain a natural authority and command presence (9), but they react quickly to the unexpected (10) and take charge and command of situations (34).

9.1 Sensemaking during an In extremis event

Maitlis and Sonenschein [14] found that sensemaking in extreme events occurs when a new and unexpected variable comes into play in an otherwise steady state, and meaning has to be constructed that integrates it into one’s thinking about what is happening [14]. Development of possible meanings requires looking at different aspects of the environment separately, and interpreting those aspects to previously understood frames of reference (mental models or schema). Sensemaking is about connecting new variables to previously understood frames to create a story of what’s going on [14], The environmental cues are provided by the situation assessment and resulting situation awareness discussed above. Both sensemaking and situation awareness refer to mental models or frames which must be accessed to provide options for action. Enacted sensemaking is the process of taking actions that construct or change the environment and situation while trying to make sense of it. Commitment, capacity, and expectations are foundational concepts for sensemaking [14]. There is significant synergy between enacted sensemaking and Endsley’s situation awareness model.

With the constant scenarios running in their mind, as Captain Adam mentioned above, when the real crisis happens, the captains seem to have an existing frame or schema that they can just insert the real variables into, and start to take actions while continuing their sensemaking. They are primed to make decisions and take action. It is a continuous iterative process in which the captains are characterized as getting control of the situation (mainly the boat and crew) and containing the problem as quickly as possible (17). They then investigate and trouble-shoot (11) to find possible solutions. Of equal importance is to know when doing something could be more dangerous than not doing anything (14), and when to make an initial decision and then evaluate and adjust (9).

Dixon et al. [15] found in their study of leadership in extremis, that sensemaking and sensegiving intensify when a leader is “in the zone” or “in the moment” which is a heightened state of mindfulness when the leader is immersed in giving and receiving signals [15]. There are examples of this in other sections of this study, but Captain Patrick sums it up nicely:

And it's like, well, you can only deal with one thing at a time, and yeah, you just slow down. You just slow down, and take one thing at a time, no matter what else is going on, because you just can't be side-tracked and get diverted with all these other problems. So, once you solve one problem, you can check that off the list, and now you go to the other one. And, uh, where you have three emergencies at one time, well, you pick the one you want to deal with and ignore the others. And, somehow, the other emergencies just kind of almost, kind of mark time in a way, at least in the situations I've been in. So, yeah, one at a time, and work your way through the list rather than rushing around, and trying to do things too quickly, that just always seemed counterproductive.

Captain Kelsey describes her signal giving during those zone moments:

And, so that's like a coping mechanism, I think, for me to keep everybody else sane. Because they're scared and everything too.... On one hand, I'm very, I can be very serious if we need to do this, “OK you do this, you do this, you do this. We need to get this done. Let's move quickly.” At times like that, I can be very serious.

Captain Andy says, “Yeah, there’s not enough time to think about it, so you’re just doing. I mean, I’ve always, I believe that completely, that action always solves anxiety. And, I will say too, the more often we do this, the more comfortable I am with it.” Captain Adam believes that the more often you encounter the same or similar problems and handle them successfully, the less you go into the zone and the more you just give commands from your experience more consciously. As incidents become normalized, the anxiety and adrenaline are not as high, so the need for the subconscious to kick in is lessened.

The dual process theory from the psychology literature shows how two decision systems work together allowing the decision maker to think both fast and slow when reasoning to address a problem [16]. What they describe as System 1 is intuitive, efficient, and based on pattern recognition and happens so fast that it may not even be recognized as a distinct cognitive process. This supports the heightened flow state mentioned above, and is very effective when time pressures require immediate action. System 2 is more of a cognitive analytical process that is more intensive and deliberate employing a conscious analytical approach. Which system is activated depends on prior experience and the ability to recognize a similar pattern and activate an existing mental model. The greater the experience and more mental models of patterns available, the more often System 1 will be used. The model oversimplifies the process in real-world practice where the decision maker more likely oscillates between the two systems. When time permits, decisions made with System 1 are often verified with System 2 logic. This dual system reflects how the captains described their decision-making process during extreme events, as getting things under control and contained (17), and then assessing what is next, which may even be to do nothing or wait (14) until conditions become safer if it is not urgent. When there is time, the captains do consciously evaluate and understand risks (12) before deciding on an action. They also store them as additional mental schema.

9.2 Decision-making in the in extremis event

Several other models and fields of research around decision-making seem to have relevance to the actions and decision-making of these captains during these extreme events. These areas of research may benefit from studying offshore sailing captains. Each of these models can help us understand what the captains have described as their decision-making and action-taking process when faced with extreme events.

Captain AJ had the most extreme story and discussed the decisions he had to make:

... there was like six of us [boats] hove-to, just because we couldn't--it was too rough to sail, too rough to motor, too rough to do anything but just hove-to. And, it just lasted so long. … Man, that was a nasty trip. And then, we bailed, I ended up just making the decision. My closest land at that point was 700 miles away, which was Charleston. This tropical storm is turning into a hurricane, I'm taking this east wind, and I'm going to the closest land, which was Charleston. … But, during that heave-to point, one of the crew members, you know, there was so much going on, he flipped. He stressed out, and he got violent. Never hit anybody, but screamed and hollered at me. I wouldn't take his advice. But, I'm the captain, and I'm the one with the experience. And, I'm sorry, you know, your suggestions aren't something I'm going to do. But he took it personally, and he got crazy. He wanted to climb the mast and fix the sail or something like that. This is while we're still hove to and it's blowing way too strong, way too dangerous right now. Yeah, we're losing time, but I wasn't about to haul somebody up in those conditions. So, you know how the boats bounce back and forth, he would have been flung all over the place. …But, you know, I wouldn't let him go up, and he got pissed.

Sometimes the captains have to make decisions on behalf of the crew for their own good (4), but they take responsibility for their decisions (10), and they are always willing to make a decision, get moving and then adjust (9), reassess and learn from decisions and mistakes (10), or reevaluate and be more conservative (10). In the moment, they cannot let their ego get involved or become attached to their decisions. They have to adapt and adjust as the dynamics of the situation change or a problem could turn into an in extremis event.

To really understand the stress and rapidity with which these captains have to deal, Captain Sara’s story of almost sinking in Long Island Sound on a research/educational schooner with professional crew and college students on board, gives us a picture of how she enacted leadership in that moment:

Anyway, they [USCG] came out from Montauk, they came out with a helicopter, I think they had pumps on board from the helicopter and the boat, I can't remember, but anyway, they got pumps on board that were able to keep the water from overwhelming us. We still didn't know where it was coming in or what was going on. And at that point, by the time they showed up, I had already made the decision to make for land as quickly as humanly possible. I was just like ... if this ship is going down, I'm going to make sure it goes down in the shallowest water possible. That was all I could think of at that point. And, so we had the engine running full bore, and the sails drawing completely, heading downwind, straight for Greenport. I just wanted to get there as fast as possible. And so, we didn't slow down. And I think at one point the Coast Guard said “Don't you want to, like, take down your sails?” And I'm like, “No, no, I don't.” And one of the reasons why I said “no” was that I didn't know what was going on under the waterline, and because of how our main is and how big it is and how heavy it is, to take the main down would have required us to do a 180, head back into the seas that we were running now from, keep punching into them and have every single person on board completely 100% focused on controlling that main boom as soon as the gaff started to come down. I mean, in heavy seas, bringing down that main sail is, it takes really, it takes a lot of people, and it takes, well, I wouldn't say tons of people, but it takes most of the crew and a whole lot of coordination. And you've really gotta know what you're doing. Because that main boom, once it starts, you know, it's no longer being controlled by the sail, it's being controlled by the sheet, and you're trying to take in on the sheet, and meanwhile the boat is going all over the place. So, you have this 65-foot-long huge boom flying back and forth across the deck. I didn't want to do that when the boat was trying to sink. You know, I just, I just thought “no, I don't wanna add that to what we're trying to do right now. It just doesn't make sense to me.” So that was a decision I made. And we made it into Greenport with the pumps that the Coast Guard brought we were doing all right. So that, that was exciting.

Captain Sara was able to make the decision and not be swayed from it, even by the Coast Guard, because she knew her boat, she knew her crew, and she focused on the most immediate important thing--keeping the boat from sinking and getting to shallow water for the boat and crew’s safety. She maximized the potential of the boat. She also knew how to keep that focus:

There was at one point, when there was enough water in the engine room and we kept running the engine fully, because we were using it to help move us along, that there was so much water in the engine room that it was flying off the belts and hitting the electrical panel and just going everywhere. And so, somebody said, “Do you want to see that?” And, I’m like, “No, no I don’t.” [laughs] Yeah, I’m back in the aft cabin and I was on the radio constantly. And I wanted to keep the big picture, but, you know, I just made the decision that, no I did not really need to see that, I can picture it in my mind, and I do not want to get into a place where I look at something and start to get scared. I do not know if that was consciously going through my mind. I would have if I’d had to, but I said “No, I don’t need to see that. I trust you to tell me what I need to know.”

9.3 Summary of the dynamic system leadership model

As the model of dynamic system leadership of sailing captains shows, everything that takes place in the more routine and the in extremis parts of an ocean passage is processed and added to the captains’ self-construct and knowledge base so that it is a continuously learning system giving them new and greater resources for their next passage. Every aspect is connected to every other aspect in a complex system that happens in the minds of the captains. Their sea stories, and the analysis of their content, begin to unpack some of the complexity of in extremis leadership and leadership in general. It really is a “Yes, and ….” of what we have learned about leadership to date with significant cognitive and psychological aspects. It truly is complex and messy.

10. Summary and conclusion

The world we live in is a dynamic system. There is no stability, and we cannot afford to let The Blue Threat within lead to denial or complacency, especially people in positions of authority. In in extremis environments, the impact on life, and possible death, is much more obvious than in our corporate lives, and so it is taken seriously and provides an inherent motivation to leave nothing to chance (Captains Richard and AJ). These captains passionately love what they do, and that propels them to apply the Third Factor and purposely develop themselves into highly proficient sailors and captain/leaders so they can safely complete their mission to bring everyone home safely, preferably on the boat they left on. They do not look for bailout from the U.S. Coast Guard, except as a very last resort. They do not pass off their responsibilities to others. They are the captain, and know they are the best person for the job because they have made themselves so. They know that danger is always lurking out there, so they prepare and actively scan for it, and deal with it when it happens. They understand the complex system that they function in, and try to keep all the pieces functioning well together to keep their crew safe and give them the best experience possible.

All organizations would benefit from leaders that have a calling and strong sense of personal responsibility for their team, their organization, and their own learning and development toward fulfilling their responsibility safely and effectively protecting human dignity. The way the captains do this is reflected in this model of dynamic system leadership of sailing captains.

As Captain Adam said, someone may be an expert sailor, but it does not mean I would go into battle with them. These captains must be committed and able to be nimble and adaptable, and pay attention all the time, not just in times of crisis, because they know the crisis is coming. Their lives and their crews’ lives depend on those qualities. These leaders are aware that crises are lurking out there as a natural part of their world. To keep their crew and their boat safe, offshore captains must pick up on the emergent signals, and constantly scan the horizon and the environment for those subtle changes in patterns that may be the beginning of a new trend or a danger warning. They make decisions without analysis paralysis or allowing fear to take control of themselves or their crew.

The complexity of our world does not allow a single person to know all the variables in play, all their interconnecting relationships, or all of the possible outcomes of a situation. We have to go with the wind, anticipate when the wind will change, and adjust our sails to stay on course while always preparing for and looking for the next storm.