Relative changes in annual precipitation by climate change scenario.
\r\n\tb) how a concentrated attention focus on screens (i.e., tablets and smartphones) could result in a total activity absorption and a flow experience;
\r\n\tc) teens' preference for media social interaction appears to be closely associated with impaired modes of mood regulation;
\r\n\td) the web activities as factors of externalized and/or internalized risks;
\r\n\te) the implementation of health promotion interventions by Internet Apps; finally,
\r\n\tf) the cross-cultural differences and similarities about teen approaches to the web around the world.
\r\n\tThis book intends to provide the reader with an overview of studies with a research topic that is crucial today: the need to integrate teens' use of the web into the processes contributing to determine adolescents' developmental trajectories and Quality of Life.
",isbn:"978-1-83969-594-0",printIsbn:"978-1-83969-593-3",pdfIsbn:"978-1-83969-595-7",doi:null,price:0,priceEur:0,priceUsd:0,slug:null,numberOfPages:0,isOpenForSubmission:!0,hash:"f005179bb7f6cd7c531a00cd8da18eaa",bookSignature:"Prof. Massimo Ingrassia and Prof. Loredana Benedetto",publishedDate:null,coverURL:"https://cdn.intechopen.com/books/images_new/10671.jpg",keywords:"Media Multitasking, Brain Development, Optimal-Experience Conditions, Digital Media Use, Mood Self-Regulation, Social Networking, Health Risk Behaviors, Internalizing/Externalizing Risk, Health Behaviors, Prevention, Cross-Cultural Research, Teen",numberOfDownloads:null,numberOfWosCitations:0,numberOfCrossrefCitations:null,numberOfDimensionsCitations:null,numberOfTotalCitations:null,isAvailableForWebshopOrdering:!0,dateEndFirstStepPublish:"February 25th 2021",dateEndSecondStepPublish:"March 24th 2021",dateEndThirdStepPublish:"May 23rd 2021",dateEndFourthStepPublish:"August 11th 2021",dateEndFifthStepPublish:"October 10th 2021",remainingDaysToSecondStep:"22 days",secondStepPassed:!0,currentStepOfPublishingProcess:3,editedByType:null,kuFlag:!1,biosketch:"Massimo Ingrassia is Director of the Post-graduate Advanced Studies in Palliative care and pain management for psychologists and a scientific advisor in research projects assessing psychological adjustment and therapeutic adherence in chronic illness. He was the author or co-author of several articles, and editor of the books on Parenting.",coeditorOneBiosketch:"Loredana Benedetto, Ph.D., is a psychologist and professor of Developmental and Educational Psychology at the Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, University of Messina. She was a scientific consultant for projects supporting families of the disabled and interventions in pediatric palliative care.",coeditorTwoBiosketch:null,coeditorThreeBiosketch:null,coeditorFourBiosketch:null,coeditorFiveBiosketch:null,editors:[{id:"193901",title:"Prof.",name:"Massimo",middleName:null,surname:"Ingrassia",slug:"massimo-ingrassia",fullName:"Massimo Ingrassia",profilePictureURL:"https://mts.intechopen.com/storage/users/193901/images/system/193901.png",biography:"Massimo Ingrassia, PsyD, is an Associate Professor of Developmental and Educational Psychology at Messina University, Italy, where he teaches graduate and postgraduate courses in Health Psychology. He is the Director of the postgraduate advanced studies in Palliative Care and Pain Management for Psychologists. His research interests include risk behaviors in adolescence and emerging adulthood, childhood development and digital technologies, pediatric palliative care and family resilience, and quality of life and chronic diseases. Dr. Ingrassia is also a scientific advisor for research projects assessing psychological adjustment and therapeutic adherence in chronic illness. 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She has been a scientific consultant for projects supporting families of disabled children and interventions in pediatric palliative care. Her research interests focus on parenting assessment, self-efficacy and parental cognition, digital parenting and problematic use of the Internet in children, metacognition and childhood disorders, early intervention in autism and developmental disabilities, and behavioral parent training. 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In the conventional PECVD methods for CNTs/CNFs synthesis, metal catalyst particles are used because the CNFs/CNTs are grown by the following steps: (i) adsorption and decomposition of the reactant molecules and their fragments formed in the plasma on a surface of catalyst, (ii) dissolution and diffusion of carbon species through the metal particle, and (iii) precipitation of carbon on the opposite surface of the catalyst particle to form the nanofibers structure (Baker & Harris, 1978; Melechko et al., 2005). Hofmann et al. (2003) have suggested that the rate-determining step for the growth of CNF at a low temperature is not the diffusion of carbon through the catalyst particle bulk, as was proposed by Baker et al. (Baker & Harris, 1978) and is generally accepted for high-temperature conditions, but the diffusion of carbon on the catalyst surface. In this surface diffusion model, carbon atoms adsorbed at the top surface of the metal particles diffuse along the surface, where their motion is much faster than bulk diffusion, and then segregate at the bottom of the particles, forming graphitic planes. These graphitic basal planes are parallel to the metal surface, and the orientation angle between the graphite basal planes and the tube axis is not zero. As a result, although CNFs grown at a higher temperature (> 500 oC) consist of several graphitic basal planes oriented parallel to the fibre axis with a central hollow region (shell structures; they can be called carbon nanotubes), CNFs grown at a lower temperature consist of stacked cone-segment shaped graphite basal plane sheets (fish-bone, herring-bone, stucked-cone, or stacked-cup structures) or the basal planes oriented perpendicular to the fibre axis (platelets structures) and CNFs with large orientation angles are often not hollow (Fig. 1). For the practical application of CNTs/CNFs, their low-temperature synthesis by PECVD is attractive to achieve the direct deposition of CNTs/CNFs on various substrates involving materials with low melting points. So far, several studies on the low-temperature (< 400oC) synthesis of CNFs/CNTs by PECVD with various discharge systems using hydrocarbons have been reported, such as the RF discharge of CH4 (Boskovic et al., 2002), the DC discharge of C2H2/NH3 (Hofmann et al., 2003), the AC discharge of C2H2/NH3/N2/He (Kyung et al., 2006), the microwave discharge of CH4/H2 (Liao and Ting, 2006), and a combination of ECR C2H2 plasma with ICP N2 plasma (Minea et al., 2004) while few attempts at low-temperature PECVD of CNFs/CNTs using CO as the carbon source have been made (Han et al, 2002; Plonjes et al., 2002).
Schematic cross-sectional illustrations of carbon nanofibers grown by catalytic CVD.
The preparation of catalyst particle often limits to lower the process temperature because high-temperature treatment is usually necessary for the activation of catalyst. The elevated temperature is also needed to create the metal particles because metal particles are usually created by breaking up a thin metal film on a substrate into small islands on annealing at elevated temperatures (Merkulov et al., 2000). At the early stage of our CNF synthesis study, the vertically aligned CNFs could be synthesized on a Fe catalyst layer using a CO/Ar/O2 discharge system at extremely low temperatures (Room temperature – 180 oC) (Mori et al., 2007, 2008, 2009a). In our subsequent study on the low-temperature activation of metal catalyst particles, it was found that the CNF growth process is not controlled by the catalyst particle, and that, surprisingly, CNFs can be grown even if no catalyst is used in the CO/Ar/O2 plasma system at the optimal growth conditions (Mori & Suzuki, 2009b, 2009c). From the viewpoint of process simplification and product purification, this catalyst-free synthesis is attractive. In this chapter, therefore, we describe only non-catalytic PECVD of CNFs grown at a low-temperature (< 180 oC) in a CO/Ar/O2 discharge system.
The CNFs were grown using a DC plasma-enhanced CVD system (DC-PECVD) and a microwave plasma-enhanced CVD system (MW-PECVD). In both systems, a low-temperature CO/Ar/O2 plasma was used. In general, the advantages of low-temperature plasma CVD using CO instead of hydrocarbons as the carbon source gas are as follows: (1) the deposition of amorphous carbon is suppressed even at low temperatures (Muranaka et al., 1991; Stiegler et al., 1996); (2) the CO disproportionation reaction, CO+CO → CO2+C, is thermodynamically favorable at low temperatures; (3) vibrationally excited molecules are formed which enhance reactions at low temperature, such as CO(
Figure 2(a) shows a schematic diagram of the experimental apparatus for the DC-PECVD system. The quartz discharge tube has a 10-mm inner diameter, and there are two electrodes spaced 5 cm apart and connected to the DC power supply in the discharge tube; one of them is a stainless-steel rod cathode with a diameter of 6 mm and the other is a stainless-steel rod anode with a diameter of 1.5 mm. In this study, borosilicate glass pieces (4 x 4 x 0.2 mm3) were used as substrates which were placed on the cathode. Before CNF synthesis, the surfaces of substrates were cleaned with ethanol and no catalysts were used in the synthesis. The parameters for the CNFs deposition process were as follows: CO flow rate: 20 sccm, Ar flow rate: 20 sccm; O2 flow rate: 0-1.0 sccm; total pressure: 800 Pa; discharge current: 2 mA. The substrate temperature,
Schematic diagram of plasma reactor: (a) DC-PECVD and (b) MW-PECVD system.
Figure 2(b) shows a schematic diagram of the MW-PECVD system in which the CNFs were grown. This system comprises a modified ASTeX DPA25 plasma applicator with a quartz discharge tube of 10-mm inner diameter. Borosilicate glass, silicon single-crystal wafers, CaF2, and polycarbonate plates (4 mm × 4 mm) were used as substrates, and the substrate was placed 52 mm below the center of the waveguide. Before CNF synthesis, the surfaces of substrates were cleaned with ethanol and no catalysts were used in this system. The conditions for CNF deposition process were as follows: CO flow rate, 10 sccm; Ar flow rate, 30 sccm; O2 flow rate, 0-1.0 sccm; total pressure, 400 Pa; and microwave power, 80 W. The substrate temperature,
The carbon deposits growing on the substrate were observed by scanning electron microscopy (Hitachi S-4500, KEYENCE VE-8800) and transmission electron microscopy (JEOL JEM-2010F) and analyzed by Raman spectroscopy (JASCO NRS-2100).
Figure 3 shows scanning electron microscope (SEM) images of the carbon deposits with different additional O2 gas compositions. The morphology of carbon deposits is strongly affected by the O2/CO ratio. Without the addition of oxygen, pillar-like carbon films were formed. When a small amount of O2 was added to the CO plasma, the morphology of the carbon films changed to a cauliflower-like structure (O2/CO ~ 1/1000) and a fibrous structure (O2/CO = 2/1000 ~ 5/1000). At higher O2 flow rates, however, the deposition rate decreased and the fibrous structure was no longer observed.
SEM images of carbon materials synthesized with different O2/CO ratio without catalyst at 90 oC. O2/CO ratio; (a) O2/CO = 0; (b) O2/CO = 1/1000; (c) O2/CO = 2/1000; (d) O2/CO = 4/1000; (e) O2/CO = 7/1000: Growth time: (a), (c) 1 h; (b), (d), (e) 2h.
Figure 4 shows transmission electron microscope (TEM) images of CNFs synthesized at O2/CO = 3/1000. Under this condition, the diameter of the CNFs was about 10-50 nm. The surface of the CNFs was not so smooth. In the high-magnification images, the lattice structure of the crystallized carbon layers is clearly visible. In most of the thinner fibers, the layers were perpendicular to the fiber axis, and it was revealed that the CNFs had a platelet structure [Figs. 4(a) and 4(b)]. That structure has already been reported by some researchers in their catalytic-grown CNFs using carbon monoxide as the carbon source gas (Murayama & Maeda, 1990; Rodriguez et al., 1995; Yoon et al., 2005). In the rest of the fibers, those layers were not clearly seen because their directions were random relative to the fiber axis and they overlapped each other [Figs. 4(d)]. However, it can be said that the crystallinity of the carbon fibers was quite high in spite of the low growth temperature.
TEM images of carbon nanofibers synthesized without catalyst at 90 oC. O2/CO = 3/1000. Growth time: 2 h. (a)-(c) platelets CNFs, (d) randomly oriented CNFs.
The Raman spectra of carbon deposits were examined as shown in Fig. 5 and it was found that there was no appreciable difference between the Raman spectra in the present non-catalytic study and previous one in which Fe catalyst was used (Mori & Suzuki, 2008): (1) the spectra for all the samples present two peaks of carbon material: the rather sharp G-band peak at approximately 1590 cm-1, which indicates the presence of crystalline graphene layers, and the broad D-band peak at 1350 cm-1, which indicates the existence of defective graphene layers; (2) the D-band decreased with increasing O2/CO ratio while the G-band was almost unchanged. Therefore, from the Raman spectroscopic analysis, it is concluded that the deposition of amorphous carbon is selectively suppressed by the addition of O2.
Raman spectra of the carbon deposits prepared at O2/CO ratios of; (a) 0/1000; (b) 1/1000; and (c) 2/1000.
Figure 6 shows SEM images of the carbon deposits grown by MW-PECVD on the glass substrates after 10 minutes of deposition with different levels of O2 gas supplementation. In the absence of added oxygen, pillar-like carbon films was formed. When a small amount of O2 was added to the CO plasma, the morphology of the carbon films changed to fibrous structure. At higher O2 flow rates, however, the deposition rate decreased and no carbon deposits could be observed. While O2/CO window for CNFs formation is shifted towards a higher O2 concentration side, the influence of oxygen addition on the morphology of carbon deposits was almost the same as that seen for DC-PECVD system. This is probably due to the fact that in microwave plasma the generation rates of the precursors for carbon deposition, i.e., C and C2 are much higher than those in DC plasma. Although CNFs synthesized by DC-PECVD are straight, MW-PECVD grown CNFs are slightly waved.
SEM images of the carbon deposits on the glass substrates at O2/CO rations of: (a) 0/1000; (b) 7/1000; and (c) 9/1000.
SEM images of carbon deposits on different substrate materials.Substrates: (a) CaF2; (b) Si; (c) polycarbonate.
Figure 7 shows SEM images of CNFs grown on different material substrates. The morphologies of the CNFs grown on Si and CaF2 substrates were almost the same as those grown on the glass substrates. However, CNFs grown on the polycarbonate showed a different morphology. The diameters of the CNFs were increased, fiber-bundling was evident, and the fiber length was diminished. The high affinity that exists between the precursor species and organic materials may result in the formation of large nuclei on the substrates and result in the growth of CNFs with large diameter.
Figure 8 shows TEM images of the CNFs. The diameters of CNFs were 50-100 nm and no tubular structure was evident (Fig.8(a)). The surfaces of the CNFs were covered with the branching fibers and their nuclei, whose diameters are 5-10 nm. The high-magnification image of the CNF edge is shown in Fig. 8(b). Although it is not clearly seen because they overlapped and their directions were random in relation to the fiber axis, the lattice images of crystallized carbon were partially observed especially in the branching fibers.
TEM images of CNFs grown on the glass substrates at an O2/CO ratio of 7/1000. (a) Low-magnification TEM image of two bundling CNFs; (b) high-magnification TEM image of the CNF surface.
The Raman spectra for the carbon materials formed on the glass substrate by MW-PECVD system were also examined. As shown in Figure 9, the rather sharp G-band peak and the broad D-band peak were observed and the D-band peak at 1350 cm-1decreased with increasing O2 flow rate, which is similar to the DC-PECVD results.
Raman spectra of the carbon deposits prepared at O2/CO ratios of; (a) 0/1000; (b) 3/1000; and (c) 7/1000.
In order to infer the reaction mechanism, the plasma emission was monitored by a spectrometer (Ocean Optics, HR4000). The typical emission spectra from CO/Ar/O2 plasma were shown in Fig. 10. A strong C2 high-pressure band and CO Angstrom bands (B1Σ+ → A1Π) and also a weak C atom spectrum at 247.9 nm can be seen. Interestingly, instead of C2 swan bands (d3Πg → a3Πu), which are well known as the most prominent bands of C2 in hydrocarbon discharge and combustion flames, C2 high-pressure bands (d3Πg, v=6 → a3Πu) were observed in this system, which are known to be predominant compared to other C2 band systems under certain CO discharge conditions (Caubet et al., 1994).
Figure 11 shows the influence of oxygen fraction on the emission intensities of CO Angstrom band, C2 HP band, and C atom spectra. From this figure, the contribution of C2 molecules to the CNF synthesis is suggested, because it is only C2 molecules that the emission intensity shows a substantial change when the amount of oxygen increases. As for atomic carbon, the emission intensity is not influenced by the addition of oxygen and it is thought that there is no substantial change in the amount of C atom concentration.
It is more clearly suggested from Fig. 12 in which the normalized growth rate of CNFs and emission intensity of CO, C and C2 by those without oxygen addition are plotted as a function of oxygen fraction. Although the normalized emission intensity of C atom spectra are not influenced by the addition of oxygen, that of C2 HP band and normalized growth
Typical Emission Spectra of CO/Ar Plasma from the cathode region (O2/CO = 0).
Emission intensity of CO*, C2*, and C* as a function of O2/CO ratio.
rates decrease drastically with increasing additional oxygen fraction and show a good correlation between them. In general, the change in the precursor density and the increase in the etching ability are thought to be the reasons why CNFs disappears as the amount of oxygen increases. However, as shown in the previous study, it cannot be thought that an increase in the etching ability is the reason for the disappearance of the CNFs in this case. When the small amount of hydrogen was added to the CO/Ar plasma, the CNFs disappear but the carbon deposits are not removed. As for the change in the spectrum, it is only C2 molecules that the emission intensity shows a substantial change when the amount of hydrogen increases (Mori & Suzuki, 2008). In other words, even if the etching ability is low, the suppression of C2 molecule formation results in the disappearance of fibrous structure. The carbon etching ability of hydrogen is much lower than that of oxygen (Mucha et al.,
Normalized growth rates of CNFs and emission intensities of C2* and C* as a function of O2/CO ratio. In this figure, growth rates and emission intensities are normalized using their values at O2/CO = 0.
1989). Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that, instead of C atoms, C2 molecules play an important role as the main precursors of CNF synthesis in this system.
Although the growth mechanism for the formation of fibrous structure without catalyst metal particles has not been clearly understood yet, the nucleation and island growth process can be a key to control the morphology of carbon materials and the dispersed nuclei play the role of growth site for the CNFs. This is because CNFs grown on the polycarbonate has different morphology as shown in Fig. 7. The diameter of CNF grown on the polycarbonate is increased and fiber bundling arises and the length of fiber is diminished. The large affinity between precursor species and organic materials would result in the formation of large nuclei on the substrates and result in the growth of CNFs with large diameter (Mori & Suzuki, 2009c). In addition, the termination of the CNF surface by the oxygen would also be the key for the linear growth because the FTIR spectra of CNF includes a lot of oxygen containing groups, which is similar to C3O2 polymers and C3O2 polymers was known to have a linear structure (Mori & Suzuki, 2009a; Blake et al., 1964). It would be also ascribed to the anisotropic crystallization at the tip of the fiber due to the anisotropic action normal to the substrates in the cathode sheath region such as ion bombardment. Furthermore, C2 molecules, which are known to be formed effectively in CO plasma, may crystallize anisotropically more readily than C atoms, thereby enhancing the linear growth of the CNFs.
Based on the results described above, the following model was postulated for the non-catalytic CNF growth mechanism. At first, precursor species such as C and C2 appear mainly in the negative glow area, in which strong emission from C2 molecules are observed, and diffuse to the substrate. Then, the Volmer–Weber island growth occurs on the substrate. During this nucleation process, if the affinity between the substrate and precursor species is high, then the diameters of the nuclei become large and the fibrous structure disappears. Next, the carbon film grows up from the nucleus. During this nucleation and growth process, the precursor species deposited on the substrate are etched by the oxygen selectively, and only the crystallized carbons on the nuclei remain (Muranaka et al., 1991; Stiegler et al., 1996). Because of the etching action of oxygen on the nuclei, amorphous carbon, which tends to grow isotropically, is selectively removed, and only the crystallized carbon (graphitic carbon) remains anisotropically (Muranaka et al., 1991; Stiegler et al, 1996; Mucha et al., 1989). Moreover, because of the surface diffusion of the etchant species from the substrate and/or that of the precursor species to the substrate, the growth rate on the nucleus near the substrate is slower than at the tip area, which results in anisotropic growth from the nuclei. After some growth of the nuclei, the local deposition of precursor species occurs around the tip area, which leads the anisotropic growth. This is because the sticking probability of the precursor species onto the CNF surface is so high (Traskelin et al., 2008) that almost all of the precursor species are deposited around the tip area and rarely reach the lower fiber surface. In this anisotropic growth process, if the O2/CO ratio is optimal, the diameter of CNFs does not increase as the fiber grows, and a fibrous structure can be achieved. However, if the O2/CO ratio is slightly lower than its optimum value, the diameter of the CNFs increases as the fiber grows and the CNFs attach to adjacent fibers, which finally extinguishes the fibrous structure. On the other hand, if the O2/CO ratio is slightly higher than its optimum value, the diameter of CNFs decreases as the fiber grows or nuclei can not grow further. The additional oxygen leads not only to amorphous carbon etching but also to the suppression of C2 molecules formation by scavenging C2O radicals (Mori & Suzuki, 2009d), which results in the disappearance of the fibrous structure and suppression of the carbon deposition. This optimum O2/CO window is so narrow that this phenomenon would not have been observed until now.
The morphology of carbon deposits in the CO/Ar/O2 plasma system is strongly affected by the O2/CO ratio and, at the optimal O2/CO ratio, vertically aligned CNFs were synthesized at a extremely low temperature in the absence of catalyst. The optimum O2/CO ratio is crucial for the synthesis of CNFs without catalyst, as it suppresses the isotropic deposition of carbon materials by etching the amorphous carbon selectively and facilitates the anisotropic linear growth of carbon deposits by allowing the formation of crystallized carbon. The spectroscopic study reveals that there is a strong correlation between C2 formation and CNF growth and C2 molecules play an important role as the main precursors of CNF synthesis in the CO/Ar/O2 PECVD system. The nucleation and island growth process is a key to control the morphology of carbon materials and the dispersed nuclei play the role of growth site for the CNFs. In addition, the termination of the CNF surface by the oxygen would also be an important factor for the linear growth of carbon materials without catalyst. From the viewpoint of process simplification and product purification, this catalyst-free synthesis is attractive. As is well known, high-temperature treatment is usually necessary for the activation of catalyst in the conventional CNFs growth method; the non-catalytic synthesis could lead to the development of a more viable process for the direct growth of CNFs onto low-temperature substrates like plastics, because no catalyst preparation step would be necessary.
We thank Mr. Katsuaki Hori, Mr. Akira Genseki, and Mr. Jun Koki of the Center for Advanced Material Analysis in Tokyo Institute of Technology for assistance with the SEM and TEM observations.
As is well-known, the current situation in the Jordan River Basin (JRB) is characterized by water scarcity and a history of water-related conflicts. The World Resources Institute (WRI) [1] classifies the JRB riparian countries among the most water-stressed countries in the world with a ratio of withdrawals to supply of more than 80%. Jordan is considered the poorest country in terms of water resources and most of its land is considered to be dry land. Except for the north-western highlands, 90% of the country receives less than 200 mm rainfall per year with an uneven distribution over regions and high fluctuation from year to year [2]. The population in the JRB region suffers from repeated water shortages which are more severe during the hot summers. Households devote considerable efforts to ensure their daily supply of water. In rural areas, the scarcity of water is among the main difficulties encountered by farmers and in urban areas, tap water is sometimes of bad quality, with frequent shortages. Households are forced to buy bottled or tank water at higher prices for their essential needs.
The severe water-related inequalities [3] are important drivers behind the regional conflicts and have created long-term political instability in the Middle East [4]. Rivalry has persisted over time as an imminent problem that has often been settled through force rather than peaceful cooperation [5]. Individual, uncoordinated actions by all riparian states have resulted in a dramatic change in water flows in the Jordan River Basin. According to United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (UN-ESCWA) and Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe (BGR) [6], annual discharge of water into the Dead Sea under near-natural conditions would be approximately 1300 million m3, but man-made interventions along the Jordan River and its tributaries have reduced this to 20–200 million m3 at present. The massive reduction in water availability, particularly in the lower Jordan area, has fueled disputes between the riparian countries. Such disputes continue to obfuscate the relationships between Israel and Lebanon and between Israel and Syria [7]. Looking at the future, prospects for the region seem to be bleak. In the short run, the Syrian crisis with its large regional impact poses a serious threat to livelihoods and development. In the long run, climate change and a rapidly expanding population will continue to put more pressure on water resources.
Climate change is projected to have large impacts on weather patterns across the globe in the future. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its 5th Assessment Report (AR5) noted that over the period 1800–2012, the average global temperature increased by 0.85°C. Moreover, Flato et al. [8] indicated that precipitation patterns deviate more frequently from long-term average trends in both volume and erraticism with adverse impacts on the society [9]. Realities of climate change are underpinned by Easterling et al. [10] who related climate change to increased drought incidence, flooding hazards, and reduced biodiversity. This clearly justifies calls for action to mitigate deteriorative effects of climate change. In this study, the focus is on the impact of climate change and water availability for households, effects on recharge to the aquifers, and on economic revenue in the Jordan River Basin, which as was argued above, is an area in the world where water scarcity is a major threat to economic growth and political stability.
Before we come up with practical and well-informed policy solutions, two challenges need to be addressed. First, the low resolution of global climate change models (100–500 km) ignores in-grid variability like complex topographical features and is, therefore, of limited use for impact studies [11]. Second, climate change effects cannot be restricted to changes in rainfall and temperature patterns alone but require a systemic response that accounts for spatial and temporal diversity of the natural resource base, interconnectedness of surface, and subsurface flows and influence on availability of water in volume and quality.
The first issue is addressed by using downscaled precipitation and climate parameters of Abdulla et al. [12] for meteorological stations in the Yarmouk Basin, covering parts of Syria and Jordan. The second challenge is met by using a water economy model of the JRB, which describes the natural and controlled flows in volume and quantity for Jordan River Basin as hydrological entity [13].
The remainder of this chapter is organized as follows. Section 2 gives a brief description of the structure, empirical basis, and calibration of the JRB water economy model. Section 3 presents the scenario formulation, including downscaling. Section 4 reports on the impact of climate change and Section 5 concludes and indicates pathways for further research.
Theoretically, the JRB model is a special case of the general class of welfare optimization models [13], where the innovative part is the inclusion of hydrology as central component of the production technology. Hence, control of flows (extraction of groundwater; use of water by humans; animals; and agriculture; transfer of water through canals; wastewater treatment and desalinization) conforms to basic principles of microeconomics with constraints that respect conservation. For economics, this implies that commodity balances hold; for hydrology, mass balances for pure water as well as for pollutants dissolved in water are maintained.
In its representation of the water economy of the JRB, the model distinguishes 48 districts, and 26 (two-weekly) time steps. Water can flow within and between five different layers. These comprise a surface layer on land for natural flows, a surface layer on land representing anthropogenic influences on water, a river layer, a root zone, and a layer representing the aquifer zones in the basin. Finally, next to clean water, the model can accommodate three types of pollutants: salinity, biological oxygen demand (BOD), and nitrate. The combination of place, time, layer, and quality defines a “cell” within the model, which acts as a source and destination of flows, representing the high level of interconnectedness of flows within the JRB.
Figure 1 provides a schematic overview of flows within the JRB between the main layers, as well as flows entering the basin as whole (rainfall and lateral flows from outside the basin) or leaving the basin (evaporation, lateral flows leaving the basin). In the model, each of the layers and connections with other layers is modeled in detail, following hydrological laws as well as reflecting anthropogenic activity (pumping, irrigation, use by humans, livestock, industry and municipalities, sewage, waste water treatment and reuse, and water harvesting).
Schematic overview of flows within the JRB basin.
As mentioned before, the JRB water economy model represents pollution of three specific types—salinity, nitrate, and BOD. Instead of using a set of attributes to represent water quality in each of these three dimensions at each point in time and space, the model represents these pollutants as flows, for which balances must hold, as for pure water. Hence, conceptually, pollutants are represented as flows with standard concentrations: 25 g/l for Cl, 2 g/l for NO3, and 10 g/l for BOD. Observed concentrations are obtained by mixing the volumes of these flows with the volume of pure water. However, such a separation of flows would not do justice to the fact that pollutants flow with the water, and are not separable in reality. Hence, in the model application, flows are always combined. Where water quality changes, this is explicitly represented as a production process (water treatment) or a natural process (decreased quality through the uptake of pollutants from the soil). Consumers, livestock, and plants (irrigation) have to take the quality of water as it is at the location where it is offered, and this represents the channel through which quality changes enter into the system and affect yields, quality of produce and revenue.
Given the overriding importance of agriculture as economic activity in the JRB, the focus in assessing economic impact is on agriculture. In the JRB, crop cultivation is characterized by a dual system, where irrigation-based agriculture and rain-fed agriculture both exist. Hence, in principle, each farmer may have both types of land under cultivation. If profit maximization is taken as point of departure, a farmer in principle controls: (1) the amount of land under cultivation, (2) the share of the land that is irrigated, and (3) the crop(s) cultivated. In its simplest interpretation, profit maximization would be driven by the amount of water available for irrigation; the costs of inputs as well as irrigation water; and the output prices of different crops, while constraints would be defined by the response of different crops to the supply of water and other inputs.
The water response module of the model is richer than this simple representation, but also imposes some simplifying assumptions. To start with the latter, it is assumed that the crop composition observed in the base year 2010 is maintained under changing water availability. Furthermore, prices for inputs, water, and crops are assumed to remain constant, as are costs for irrigation. Richness of the module is achieved by acknowledging the following facts of agriculture in the JRB:
Whenever land is irrigated, irrigation applied is optimal for the crop under cultivation
Quality of land is not uniform over the JRB or even within districts
The highest-quality land is taken into production first; then, lesser qualities are used for cultivation
Water available for irrigation may contain (high levels of) salt, BOD, or nitrate
There is a large gap between yields on irrigated lands and yields on rain-fed areas
Yields on rain-fed areas mainly respond to changes in water availability
The area of rain-fed land does not respond to changes in water availability
This results in a decision tree for the farmer as depicted in Figure 2. For rain-fed lands, the farmer has no control over the response, as water availability in the root zone as well as water quality determine the yield on the given area. For irrigated lands, the farmer controls the area under irrigation (this block is marked purple, to indicate this is a decision variable). Yield response for the total area under irrigation is the result of expansion of irrigated areas to include land of lesser quality, where the optimal yield under irrigation is lower, leading to lower average yields for the total irrigated area. As for rain-fed agriculture, salinity has a negative impact on crop yields, and hence, also impacts on the yield response. Below, the chapter expands on the formal description of the water response module.
Farmer’s response to changes in water quality and quantity.
Formally, the model can be represented by the following four equations:
where
Eq. (4) shows for each
Eqs. 1–3 specify each of the destinations as fixed fractions of the total available model stock
Although the equations look relatively simple, they cover a wealth of different flows especially due to the dimensionality of the system. We distinguish a hydrological component, anthropogenic activities, and actual human water use.
The hydrological component is represented by matrix
In addition to these natural flows, the model has exogenous natural flows denoted as vector
Anthropogenic activities are represented by several projects
Five types of water use are distinguished: household use, municipal use, industrial use, crop water use, and livestock use. Household water is further subdivided into tap water, truck water, roof water, and bottled water. Together, these destinations make up the set of water use types
When strictly following its definition above, matrix
Here, we summarize the main properties of the model:
for each
for each
for each
In model symbols the latter condition reads:
Due to this condition, we can write Eq. (4) also fully in terms of total available stock
This formulation is used in the iterative calculation of the equilibrium stock levels that solve the model, starting from an initial value, say
Once the equilibrium stock
To this end, the simulation model includes a crop module that distinguishes K different crops, indexed
Net revenue is calculated as follows:
The relation between actual harvested area
In Eq. (12),
In Eq. (13),
Factor
In these equations, prices
The following steps were taken to evaluate climate change impacts. First, we organized the daily precipitation data of the five climate change scenarios over the period 1980–2100 for 23 stations in the Yarmouk Basin in a excel spread sheet. Second, since variety of the modeled data are difficult to compare at daily level, we aggregated precipitation at yearly level and averaged the data of individual stations over cohorts of 20 consecutive years (2000–2020, 2021–2040, etc.) for each district. Third, we calculated relative changes over 40 (average of 2000–2020 minus 2040–2060) and 80 (average of 2000–2020 minus 2080–2100) years (Table 1). Fourth, using a linear regression that estimated a small positive gradient for the northern latitude [16], the predicted rainfall patterns for the Yarmouk river basin have been extrapolated to the entire JRB, constituting a database for the scenario analysis of daily rainfall at district level for the year 2050 (regression results are found in the Annex). Finally, we selected the CanESM2 model since, here, grid of the model overlaid best with the JRB area (in particular, better than CGCM3, see Figure 3); within CanESM2, RCP8.5 is selected as the most pessimistic scenario on future rainfall.
Relative changes in annual precipitation by climate change scenario.
Grid overlay of CanESM2 and CGCM3 with JRB.
Following this procedure, we predict that for the whole of the JRB, rainfall in 2050 will be around 10% lower than present precipitation, but with substantial spatial spreading (see Figure 4), where rainfall is even predicted to increase in the eastern part of the JRB.
Rainfall in 2050: Predicted change relative to present conditions.
Application of the JRB model using these rainfall figures leads to the conclusion that the most important impact is an overall reduction of the net revenue from crop cultivation in the JRB as a whole of 150 million USD, with major losses in Israel, Jordan, and the West Bank. Syrian revenues would increase, reflecting the increase in rainfall in large parts of the country located in the JRB (see Figure 5).
Impact of climate change on net revenue.
However, the rainfall shock is not fully transmitted to agricultural activity: although the reduction in rainfall is a major shock, it is partly compensated by reduced evaporation (about half the shock), and lower river flows and hence lower extraction volumes. In addition, recharge of groundwater is affected very negatively, and the outflow to the Dead Sea is also substantially lower (20 million km3). Despite the drop in recharge, salinity of groundwater resources increases only marginally (0.01% for the JRB as a whole, with a “peak” of 0.02% for Israel). Decreasing availability of water implies a decrease in the amount of untreated waste water, as household demand falls and less waste water is produced. This in turn implies that irrigation water contains relatively less untreated waste water and that leakage of contaminated water to the root zone also decreases, leading to a reduction in BOD in water used for irrigation of 5.5% on average for the JRB. Figures 6–8 illustrate the impact on run-off to the rivers, extraction from the rivers and Lake Tiberias and groundwater stock changes relative to the present baseline. Particularly, the latter result is cause for concern about the future as it is clear that unchanged extraction policies would lead to unsustainable extraction from groundwater resources in the coming decade.
Impact of climate change on run-off.
Impact of climate change on extraction.
Impact of climate change on groundwater stock changes.
Climate change is a major concern for policy makers in the Middle East who aim to protect their constituency from adverse effects on water availability for food security and the environment. Yet, to provide a proper foundation for informed decisions on adoption or mitigation of climate change effects, two issues have to be resolved. First, results of global circulation models should be downscaled from their coarse (50–100 km) grids to a meaningful spatial resolution. Second, effects of changes in rainfall should reflect the hydrological complexity of natural and controlled surface and subsurface flows that jointly are responsible for water supply.
In this study, we addressed these two issues for the JRB by a statistical downscaling of the climate change scenarios for precipitation from global circulation models in conjunction with the application of a water economy model that describes the water flows in detail and, additionally, reports on the impact of climate change on water availability (run-off and groundwater recharge) and agricultural productivity in JRB.
The results reveal that there is a significant reduction in the surface run-off of an amount greater than 160 MCM (28%) in the JRB that affects the extraction volumes out of the rivers. Most reduction in run-off to rivers is found in Syria (42%) and Jordan (40%). There is also a significant reduction in groundwater recharge of an amount of about 180 MCM (11%), which seriously threatens the already overexploited groundwater stock. Accordingly, the agricultural productivity reduces by 160 million USD, with largest effects on Jordan (23%), the West Bank (16%), and Israel (12%). The impact of climate change on water quality is minor; quality even improves due to lower waste water volumes that blend with fresh water resources.
The results obtained in this study could be used as a reference for regional water resources management in the JRB. The results also provide detailed information on spatially explicit effects that allow local policy makers to take matters in their own hand. As such, the model outcomes can also underpin the stakeholder discussions on distribution of water resources to support negotiations on water transfers, within and between basins.
Further validation exercises should strengthen the reliability of results obtained by the global climatic models (GCMs). Incorporation of local knowledge on water management that transcends academic disciplines with practical solutions and on the ground reality further strengthens the water economy model’s representation and its utility as decision support tool.
See Figures a1–a10.
Relative future changes in precipiation against South-North gradient. Scenario: CanESM2 GCM, RCP2.6, time lapse 40 years.
Relative future changes in precipiation against South-North gradient. Scenario: CanESM2 GCM, RCP2.6, time lapse 80 years.
Relative future changes in precipiation against South-North gradient. Scenario: CanESM2 GCM, RCP4.5, time lapse 40 years.
Relative future changes in precipiation against South-North gradient. Scenario: CanESM2 GCM, RCP4.5, time lapse 80 years.
Relative future changes in precipiation against South-North gradient. Scenario: CanESM2 GCM, RCP8.5, time lapse 40 years.
Relative future changes in precipiation against South-North gradient. Scenario: CanESM2 GCM, RCP8.5, time lapse 80 years.
Relative future changes in precipiation against South-North gradient. Scenario: CGCM3 GCM, A1B, time lapse 40 years.
Relative future changes in precipiation against South-North gradient. Scenario: CGCM3 GCM, A1B, time lapse 80 years.
Relative future changes in precipiation against South-North gradient. Scenario: CGCM3 GCM, A2, time lapse 40 years.
Relative future changes in precipiation against South-North gradient. Scenario: CGCM3 GCM, A2, time lapse 80 years.
Supporting women in scientific research and encouraging more women to pursue careers in STEM fields has been an issue on the global agenda for many years. But there is still much to be done. And IntechOpen wants to help.
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\\n\\nWe aim to publish 100 books in our Women in Science program over the next three years. We are looking for books written, edited, or co-edited by women. Contributing chapters by men are welcome. As always, the quality of the research we publish is paramount.
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\n\nWe aim to publish 100 books in our Women in Science program over the next three years. We are looking for books written, edited, or co-edited by women. Contributing chapters by men are welcome. As always, the quality of the research we publish is paramount.
\n\nAll project proposals go through a two-stage peer review process and are selected based on the following criteria:
\n\nPlus, we want this project to have an impact beyond scientific circles. We will publicize the research in the Women in Science program for a wider general audience through:
\n\nInterested? If you have an idea for an edited volume or a monograph, we’d love to hear from you! Contact Ana Pantar at book.idea@intechopen.com.
\n\n“My scientific path has given me the opportunity to work with colleagues all over Europe, including Germany, France, and Norway. Editing the book Graph Theory: Advanced Algorithms and Applications with IntechOpen emphasized for me the importance of providing valuable, Open Access literature to our scientific colleagues around the world. So I am highly enthusiastic about the Women in Science book collection, which will highlight the outstanding accomplishments of women scientists and encourage others to walk the challenging path to becoming a recognized scientist." Beril Sirmacek, TU Delft, The Netherlands
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