This chapter aims to provide climate policy makers with smooth patterns of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions consistent with the UN climate targets. An accessible mathematical approach is used to design such models. First, the global warming is quantified with time to determine when the climate targets will be hit in case of no climate mitigation. Then, the remaining budget for CO2 emissions is derived based on recent data. Considering this for future emissions, first proposed is an exponential model for their rapid reduction and long-term stabilization slightly above zero. Then, suitable interpolations are performed to ensure a smooth and flexible transition to the exponential decline. Compared to UN climate simulation models, the designed smooth pathways would, in the short term, overcome a global lack of no-carbon energy and, in the long term, tolerate low emissions that will almost disappear as soon as desired from the 2040s with no need for direct removal of CO2.
Part of the book: Global Warming and Climate Change