Ting Dong

By Ting Dong, Raphael T. Haftka and Nam H. Kim

This chapter quantifies the advantages of condition-based maintenance on the safety and lifetime cost of an airplane fuselage. The lifecycle of an airplane is modeled as blocks of crack propagation due to pressurization interspersed with inspection and maintenance. The Paris-Erdogan model with uncertain parameters is used to model fatigue crack growth. The fuselage skin is modeled as a hollow cylinder, and an average thickness is calculated to achieve a probability of failure in the order of 1 in 10 million with scheduled maintenance. Condition-based maintenance is found to improve the safety of an airplane over scheduled maintenance and will also lead to savings in lifecycle cost. The main factor of the savings stems from the reduced net revenue lost due to shortened downtime for maintenance. There are also other factors such as work saved on inspection and removing/installing surrounding structures for manual inspection. In addition to cost savings, some potential advantages of condition-based maintenance are discussed such as avoiding damage caused by removing/installing surrounding structures, more predictable maintenance, and improving the safety issues of same aircraft model by posting the frequently occurred damages into Airworthiness Directives, Service Bulletins, or Service Letters.

Part of the book: Reliability and Maintenance

By Ting Dong, Dawn An and Nam H. Kim

An efficient Bayesian-based algorithm is presented for physics-based prognostics, which combines a physical model with observed health monitoring data. Unknown model parameters are estimated using the observed data, from which the remaining useful life (RUL) of the system is predicted. This paper focuses on the Bayesian method for parameter estimation of a damage degradation model where epistemic uncertainty in model parameters is reduced with the observed data. Markov-chain Monte Carlo sampling is used to generate samples from the posterior distribution, which are then propagated through the physical model to estimate the distribution of the RUL. A MATLAB script of 76 lines is included in this paper with detailed explanations. A battery degradation model and crack growth model are used to explain the process of parameter estimation, the evolution of degradation and RUL prediction. The code presented in this paper can easily be altered for different applications. This code may help beginners to understand and use Bayesian method-based prognostics.

Part of the book: Fault Detection, Diagnosis and Prognosis