Risks and Threats on the Coast of Quintana Roo: The Case of Tulum, México

Abstract

The 160 km of the Riviera Maya from Cancun to Tulum are highly valued by investors in the tourism sector. In the case of the city of Tulum, the problem is more acute due to hydrometeorological risks and effects on the environment, such as mangroves and underground rivers. The development of basic urban infrastructure (water, sanitation, and solid waste) for the resident population does not allow the development of large tourism real estate projects that are the site of several controversies between environmentalists, landowners, the municipality itself and the investors. The existence of a Tulum National Park and the Sian Ka’an Biosphere Reserve put a brake on massive tourism development, but they are nevertheless affected. The methodology of analysis is based on a comparison between the risk maps and the municipal development plans, which reveals little interest in potential risks. Faced with this problem, the research proposes sustainable development and participatory risk management that will not affect the environment, including nature-friendly tourism development.

1. Introduction

The Municipality of Tulum was founded on March 13, 2008, from the territory of the municipality of solidaridad and is part of the Chichen-Itza-Coba-Tulum archaeological axis. It is located on the Mayan coast south of Cancun (132 km) and is part of the Cancun-Tulum tourist corridor. The geographical context of Tulum has long beaches and is situated in front of the largest chain of reefs in the world, wide extensions of mangroves, and surrounded by a jungle of great biodiversity, as well as numerous cenotes and caverns that are part of a system of underground rivers, in the northern and southern part of the urban area.

The city of Tulum is now facing pressure from the tourist real estate market, and its negative effects, such as real estate and urban speculation on communal land and environmental effects, such as sanitary landfills at the top of their capacity. There is also an environmental deterioration of hydrological systems, wetlands, coastal dunes, and coral reefs and insufficient infrastructure making the city vulnerable to all kinds of threats. In the year 2000, the Riviera Maya megaproject emerged, including Ciudad del Carmen and Tulum. The Rivera Maya was planned as a tourism megaproject for mass tourism without considering the effects, and it could have on the environment along the coast of Quintana Roo. The development of the City of Tulum should be limited by the Tulum National Park, founded in 1981, where the archaeological site (664 hectares) is located, and the Sian Ka’an Biosphere Reserve, both of which are considered natural protected areas (PNA). The Sian Ka’an Biosphere Reserve is part of the hydrological complex of lagoons, wetlands, underground rivers, and cenotes of the Mesoamerican Reef System and is located 10 kilometers south of Tulum and has an area of 528,147 hectares (ha). On January 20^th, 1986, it was declared a biosphere reserve, as a World Heritage Site, by UNESCO. These wetlands form a natural barrier to weather disturbances, such as hurricanes, waves, and storm surges. The existence of these protected areas has done little to limit the expansion of tourist and housing developments in these areas. However, the areas that remain between the city itself and the coast are becoming real estate developments, such as Aldea Zama, despite occupying mangroves, gradually disappearing from the jungle.

The existence of ejido land around the city of Tulum, regulated by the urban development plan (2006–2030), predisposes future growth [1, 2]. These ejido lands are subject of high real estate speculation despite being jungle land. There are more than 14 tourist developments in Tulum National Park.

There is a conflict between the local authorities that approved an update to 2006 and urban development plan that proposed the construction of 60,000 hotel rooms within 25 years and the federal authorities demanding that the urban development plan conform to the legal framework without encroaching on federal powers. This urban development plan, updated in April 2008, was revoked in May 2008 by the supreme court of justice of the nation (SCJN) for invading the powers of the central state in the management and protection of natural protected areas and the Tulum National Park, thereby which the municipality of Tulum will not be able to assign population densities or assign land uses to the protected area, as it intended.

There are also conflicts between environmental groups, environmental NGOs, federal institutions and, on the other hand, local politicians, ejido owners, large international corporations, and private investors. The first conflict consists of a legal dispute over land ownership between the former owners and those requesting recognition of the expropriated territory for the national park and the archaeological zone.

There are several works about the environmental problems in Tulum and on the Mayan coast, most of them pose problems linked to tourism González [3, 4, 5], the coastal environment [6], urban resilience to hurricanes Camacho Sanabria José [7], effects of climate change on the coastal zones [8, 9], but few associate hydrometeorological risks with urban development caused by the growth of tourism.

The environmental problem manifests itself around four main axes:

• Hurricanes: Few are considered in the plans of tourism developers, but few are considered by the different factors as an important criterion.

• Flooding: Urban development plan (2006–2030) and the municipal development plan (2018–2021) do not consider the flood risk map considered in the municipal risk atlas [10]. The urban development plan was prepared before 2015 but does not justify this omission.

• The presence of underground rivers: South system: Sac Ox Belha and North system: Sac Actun, mentioned in the urban development plan were not considered by the plan itself in its urban growth plan, nor in the partial municipal plan.

• Sea level rise: Due to climate change, an effect of sea level rise between 0.5 and 1 m was estimated, the result of which shows a loss of 20% of the beaches and 90% respectively [8].

• The real estate invasion of the Sian Ka’an Biosphere Reserve.

These risks and threats are not contemplated in urban development plans, much less in city growth plans. It seems that the growth plans are unaware of these risks when they have been highlighted by various studies. The conceptual framework below explains in some way why these risks and threats have not been considered in the city’s growth plans.

2. Conceptual framework

The conceptual framework is based on the following research questions: How are risks and vulnerability constructed in a coastal city? and How do risks and vulnerability grow over the years? To begin with, the importance of vulnerability is recognized, followed by risks and their social construction as central concepts in the occurrence of disasters that are by no means natural [11, 12]. Urban disasters are processes, sometimes long with multi-causal, social, economic, and political factors, particularly in cities like Tulum, which began to grow in the 1990s. This growth process illustrates how risk has been built over the last 30 years. Natural threats have not changed in this same period hurricanes, floods, permeable karstic soil, etc. What has changed is the occupation of the territory mainly due to pressure from the tourism industry. The social construction of risks has its origin in the creation of vulnerable conditions, for example, the construction of housing complexes on mangroves that thus disappear, and that are a natural barrier against the effect of hurricanes and limiting flooding.

Currently, new concepts are used by various researchers, such as adaptation and resilience. Although adaptation processes have always existed since the beginning of humanity, now it is about adaptation processes in the face of climate change that are promoted by international organizations. Likewise, several studies focus on “urban resilience”, studying whether a city is resilient or not, these concepts may help to understand the phenomena but do not help to propose solutions to limit the vulnerability of cities to natural phenomena and socio-natural threats.

3. Methodology

An observation period of the municipality of Tulum goes between 1987 and 2020, corresponding to the data obtained in relation to urban and population growth between these dates. The analysis is developed from cartography prepared by the urban development plan (2006), the municipal development plan (2018-2021) and the municipal risk atlas (2015), and the partial program of urban development polygon south of the Tulum population center (2011). The proposal results from a comparison and superimposition layer of risk maps and urban growth and development maps carried out both by state and municipal authorities, as well as the private sector and tourism infrastructure promoters. Neither the municipal authorities nor the promoters of tourist infrastructures do this map crossing, if they had done so, their proposals in flood zones would be invalidated and unmarketable. For example, the flood zones marked in red in the risk atlas of Tulum do not appear in the urban development plans that have subdivided all the land around the urban center of Tulum. The mangrove areas located between the urban center and the coast have also been subdivided. Underground rivers no longer appear in the urban development plan. This method has aimed to highlight these omissions that leave the developer companies a free field for their projects without any restrictions other than those of the construction regulations.

4. Diagnosis: risks, threats, and vulnerability

Tulum suffers from two potential threats hydrometeorological events (hurricanes and floods) and anthropogenic threats caused by pressure from tourism and population growth. From a strictly environmental point of view, Tulum cannot grow due to the characteristics of its soil and subsoil (karstic soil, mangroves, and underground rivers). All growth brings with it conflicts between the environment and urbanization. The natural system is highly vulnerable: “Furthermore, the mangrove, like the reefs, is altered by the action of hydrometeorological phenomena, since during its action, salinity increases and exerting greater environmental pressure on this species” [13].

4.1 Hurricanes and floods

Since ancient times several hurricanes have impacted Quintana Roo and the Municipality of Tulum, we can observe that since 1951 eleven hurricanes have impacted with a category between three and five on the Saffir-Simpson scale, the coasts of Quintana Roo (see Table 1).

Name	Year	category	Most affected municipalities
Charlie	1951	4	Cozumel, Solidaridad
Janet	1955	5	Othon P. Blanco, Chetumal
Beulah	1967	5	Cozumel
Gilberto	1988	5	Cozumel, Solidaridad
Roxanne	1995	3	Felipe Carrillo Puerto, Tulum
Emily	2005	4	Tulum
Stan	2005	1	Chetumal
Wilma	2005	4	Cozumel, Solidaridad, Cancun
Dean	2007	5	Quintana Roo
Olga	2007	TS	Tulum
Dolly	2008	2	Puerto Morelos
Rina	2011	3	Tulum
Gamma	2020	1	Tulum
Delta	2020	4	Puerto Morelos, Tulum (efecto menor)
Zeta	2020	3	Tulum, Playa del Carmen

Table 1.

Hurricanes and tropical storms that impacted Quintana Roo.

Source: Historical hurricane tracks (NOAA, 2021).

Hurricanes are generally accompanied by floods, strong winds and result in trees, and power poles falling. In Tulum, when a hurricane occurs, the internet is also cut off since the plant does not have a power generator, and the population is cut off from communication.

A study carried out by the University of Quintana Roo in 2019 [7] has shown through a survey, the percentages of the population of Tulum in relation to hurricanes to measure the level of urban resilience (Table 2).

Indicator	%
% of the population that has not experienced a hurricane	63
% of the population is unaware that the city is affected by hurricanes	7
% of the population that is aware that their home is located in a flood zone or that it may be affected by a hurricane	41
% of households that have a family emergency plan	67
% of homes insured against hurricanes and floods	7
% of households that have received training on what to do in the event of a hurricane or flood	24
% of the population that is aware of risk prevention programs for hurricanes and floods	32
% of the population that knows the location of the closest temporary shelter to their home	67
% of the population that knows the evacuation routes for hurricanes and floods	31

Table 2.

Percentage of the population of Tulum in relation to their perception to be affected by hurricanes.

Source: [7].

This survey shows that more than 50% of the population that resides in Tulum is not prepared to face a hurricane of category two or more; however, 67% of the population has an emergency plan and knows the location of a temporary shelter. Most of the population is aware that their city is affected by hurricanes, but more than 50% have never experienced a hurricane and only 24% have received training on what to do in the event of a hurricane or flood.

Figure 1 clearly shows the upward trend from the year 2005 in affectations due to floods caused by hurricanes. In the municipality of Tulum, the flood zones are the following (Figure 2).

Figure 1.

Houses damaged and/or destroyed by floods in Quintana Roo in the period 1970–2013 (Source: Desinventar.net).

Figure 2.

Flood hazard map (in pink) (Sources: From the Risk Registrations of the Municipality of Tulum, 2015 and the Municipal Development Plan).

The entire coast where the main tourist infrastructures (hotels and bars) are located in a flood zone. In addition, the polygon considered for the extension of the city in the Tulum Development Plan (2010) is also in a flood zone. This Polygon is considered an “urban reserve” for population growth (see Figure 3).

Figure 3.

Partial Development Program of the city of Tulum (Source: From the municipal development plan).

In summary, we have a population that is relatively unprepared to receive hurricanes and floods whose impacts are growing as of 2005, and a possibility of extension of the city of Tulum (Polygon South) in an area threatened by floods, and a coastal hotel zone as well as, subject to floods and hurricanes. We will see later that tourism megaprojects do not consider the threats clearly defined in the risk atlas as well as those defined in the urban development plan, nor the natural protected areas.

4.2 Water bodies and underground rivers

There are two underground river systems on each side of the city of Tulum: the southern system: Sac Ox Belha and the northern system: Sac Actun (map 3). These underground water body systems are connected to the cenotes. These systems are very vulnerable to all kinds of contamination, by sanitation systems: most houses have no drainage, only septic tanks whose absorption wells can contaminate underground rivers. The partial plan of the State of Quintana Roo, (2010) locates urban growth on the southern system of underground rivers (see map 4). The karstic rock soil is characterized by its high permeability; therefore, the infiltration of contaminants is very likely (Figures 4 and 5).

Figure 4.

Underground rivers: South system: Sac Ox Belha and North system: Sac Actun (Source: Urban Development Plan, 2006–2030).

Figure 5.

Growth area of the city of Tulum on the southern system of underground rivers (Source: from the Municipal Development Plan).

The current urban center does not have drainage and the porosity of the soil means that all matter is filtered and reaches the underground body of water. Fecal matter has already been found in the caverns. Urban growth without sewage treatment plants would lead to environmental and health catastrophes.

5. Solid waste management

According to data from the Tulum City Council, in 2014 around 22,636 m3 of (urban solid waste (USW) was collected and in 2015 around 25,606 m3 of municipal solid waste (MSW) was collected. It is estimated that an average of around 180 tons of USW is collected daily, which is deposited in an open-air dump that is located 9.5 km from the housing center on the road towards Coba. The dump is reaching its maximum capacity, to try to solve this problem the local authorities began, in 2010, steps to carry out a sanitary landfill that is located 18 km to the south of the city on federal highway 307 Chetumal-Cancun. The landfill came into operation in 2016 and receives between 100 and 120 tons/day of solid waste. However, no garbage separation system would allow the recycling of some materials, such as paper and cardboard, glass, and plastics. When the sargassum (Sargassum fluitans and Sargassum natans) arrives, in the hot season, there are no alternative places to process the brown algae, other than covering the algae with sand in places where there are no hotels. The growth of the population, as well as the growth of the floating population due to tourism, will increase the need for the collection and processing of MSW, and make the city more vulnerable to solid waste.

6. Interactions between urban growth, tourism, and hazards

A study carried out by the Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Spain, [5] based on the opinion on the impacts of climate change on the different actors involved in the management and promotion of the Riviera Maya (politicians, private sector, and associations) reveals three main impacts: sea level rise, major weather events (hurricanes), and coral bleaching. There is no mention of the threats of floods and droughts or the lack of basic services that could be disastrous in the event of a lack of drainage in the event of hurricanes. They consider that these three impacts are already generating negative effects on tourism activity. For the mitigation of these threats, most of the interviewees agree on the lack of public resources when the strong urban growth for tourism generates many resources for the municipalities of Tulum. The fragility or scarcity of basic services and the absence of mitigation measures have nothing to do with climate change, thus, these studies on the impacts of climate change make it possible to hide real problems and threats on the territory and contribute to building future disasters.

6.1 Map analysis

If we cross the flood map (from the risk atlas) with the urban growth plan (see map No. 2), we can see that a large part of the projected extension of the city is in a flood zone (very high in red). Most of the urban extension is intended for housing complexes for tourism, each lot or set of lots is labeled with the name of the owner. As for the underground river zones (see map No. 4) we can also observe that they are located below the growth zone of the city. In the medium or long term, it is evident to forecast that investments in tourism will be affected by floods caused by hurricanes or other meteorological phenomena. Likewise, the underground rivers will probably be more polluted by the black and gray waters of the housing complexes.

6.2 Evolution of marginalization in Tulum

The idea that the development of the tourist infrastructure could contribute to reducing the level of marginalization and the precariousness of the dwellings of the inhabitants is not evident if we compare the last three years. The percentage of the illiterate 15-year-old population grew due to the arrival of the migrant population looking for service and cleaning jobs. The percentage of occupants of dwellings without piped water decreased in 2015 but grew in 2020. Likewise, the number of occupants in dwellings with dirt floors increased in 2020, only overcrowding decreased a little. In other words, there are no indications that the quality of life and housing has increased. The hypothesis stating that tourism development goes hand in hand with population and development cannot be verified in the case of Tulum (see Table 3).

Years	2010	2015	2020
Total population	28263	32714	46 721
% Illiterate population aged 15 or over	8.26	5.97	29.67
% Occupants in private dwellings without drainage or toilet	9.94	3.10	3.64
% Occupants in private dwellings without piped water	6.5	0.95	2.85
% Occupants in private dwellings with dirt floors	5.38	4.19	7.43
% Private dwellings with overcrowding	55.58	43.83	43.24
% Employed population with incomes less than 2 minimum wages	30.91	23.39	51.26
Degree of marginalization	Low 0.76	Low 0.87	Low 0.88

Table 3.

Evolution of marginalization in Tulum from 2010 to 2020.

Source: National Population Council (CONAPO).

7. Conclusions and recommendations

To reduce the impacts caused by the effects of climate and climate change, some basic principles are proposed. The city of Tulum is very vulnerable to these events and will be more so in the future, therefore it is important to know the coastal dynamics and not hinder natural processes through infrastructure or buildings. We summarize these basic principles in Table 4.

Phenomena	Impacts	Basic Principles
Storm surges, storm surges, and hurricanes	Destruction of buildings, infrastructure, and natural systems.; Erosion of beaches and coastal dunes.; Flooding of buildings, infrastructure, open spaces, and natural systems.	Maintain the natural dynamics of floods, temporary outlets, storm surges, regular waves, and groundwater flows Do not obstruct the flow of water Do not obstruct sand deposition and dune formation, or their erosion Maintain native vegetation in good condition Build in the least exposed areas. Maintain natural coastal protection systems (dunes, reefs, and mangroves).
Intense rains caused by north winds and storms	Flooding of buildings, infrastructure, open spaces, and natural systems.; Soil erosion and the creation of gullies or ditches.	Maintain the natural dynamics of flooding, catchment, and release of the area Maintain natural catchment and flooding areas Create catchment areas and temporary flooding Maintain or reconstruct the natural routes of water discharge towards areas of the flood. Maintain or establish vegetation barriers to reduce erosion by runoff Build elevated buildings above the flood elevation. Disturb the slopes of the land and the vegetation as little as possible so as not to increase runoff.
Stronger and more frequent storm and hurricane winds	Destruction of buildings, infrastructure, and natural systems.; Erosion of coastal dunes and beaches.	Maintain or restore the vegetation as a living barrier against the wind, according to the strength of the wind. Build solid infrastructure to withstand winds. Build open infrastructure to allow wind to pass through.
Sea level rise and waves	Erosion of beaches and coastal dunes; Flooding of buildings, infrastructure, open spaces, and natural systems.	Maintain natural coastal protection systems: dunes, reefs, and mangroves. Do not build structures that interrupt the coastal dynamics in dunes, lagoons, and wetlands Maintain free areas where natural systems can migrate when increasing the sea level.

Table 4.

Basic principles against climatic phenomena.

Source: From [9], Sobrevive al cambio climático.

From these basic principles, recommendations can be made for land use practices and construction practices.

8. Land use practices

1. Areas adjoining the coastline: the construction of hotels or facilities should not be allowed; only light infrastructure should be allowed that does not impact the ground and that easily allows evacuation. In the municipality of Tulum, these are the protected natural areas (ANP).

2. In areas far from the coast, higher densities can be allowed (up to C.U.S. of 4.0) with a maximum of four levels but leaving a minimum of 50% of the land for green use and recharge.

3. A floor occupancy coefficient (C.O.S.) limit of 0.3 is recommended in coastal areas that contain tourist accommodation and up to 0.5 in urban areas.

4. Essential services, such as electrical power substations, hospitals, and health centers, should be located outside the storm surge zone of influence and outside the flood zone.

5. Do not obstruct the natural outlet areas towards the sea and keep them as green areas without construction or filling. Local knowledge and topographic surveys can determine these zones.

6. The buildings located interspersed allow the circulation of the prevailing winds.

7. Protect the mangroves because the roots and trunks cushion the impact of natural waves and storms on the beaches, thus reducing erosion, trapping debris, and generating soil.

9. Constructive practices and concepts

1. In flood-prone areas, it should be built on piles since it reduces the risk of flooding, facilitating the flow of tidal waves and reducing the temperature and humidity inside the room.

2. Use isolated triangular or oval footings to minimize the impact on the foundation due to the force of the water.

3. The open floor plan allows better ventilation inside the rooms and avoids the use of air conditioning.

4. The presence of an interior patio generates a different micro-climate from the exterior with native vegetation.

5. Preferably use heat-insulating materials, such as wood or bamboo in the construction of envelopes and roofs.

6. The portico allows shade and reduces sunlight on the walls, facing south or west.

7. Circular walls offer less resistance to hurricane winds (i.e. the traditional Mayan house).

8. Use lattice windows in case of large dimensions to better resist strong winds.

9. Cover with openings at the ends to ensure cross ventilation (chimney effect).

10. Obligation for all residential or tourist complexes to build a treatment plant for black and gray water.

11. Capture and store rainwater so as not to depend on the supply of drinking water, especially in areas with low-capacity aquifers, such as the fringes of dunes between the sea and coastal lagoons.

These recommendations consider the Tulum Urban Development Plan that foresees growth that will have a negative impact on the land, environment, transportation, and circulation. The way to limit the negative impacts is to follow these recommendations both at the level of land use and in construction practices. The demand for tourism infrastructure is such that large tourism companies have already bought properties and lots on the outskirts of the urban center of Tulum. In the next 10–15 years, the current Tulum will change into an important city in terms of population, which is why drastic measures are required from now on so that Tulum is a city that is resilient to such growth.

Acknowledgments

This research was financed by the Instituto Politecnico Nacional of Mexico, SIP N° 20210844. We appreciate the participation of Claudia Mitzy Jimenez Martinez, BEIFI student of the master’s degree in the design of the maps.