Impact of Climate Change on the Dairy Production in Fiji and the Pacific Island Countries and Territories: An Insight for Adaptation Planning

Abstract

Climate change affects weather patterns, leading to changes in average temperatures, increased frequency, variability, and intensity of extreme weather events, especially in the Pacific Island countries. Climate change poses the greatest threats to the sustainability of smallholder dairy farming in Fiji, with the farmers being highly vulnerable, yet their adaptive capacity is low. Additionally, the Pacific’s current and future sustainable livestock development will heavily depend on its ability to cope with climate variability and adapt to future climate changes. Available data indicate that there is high spatial and temporal variability of rainfall over Fiji Island with the mean annual rainfall ranging from 1600 to 3600 mm, with Rotuma station receiving the highest rainfall over Fiji Island. Rainfall in Fiji has shown an increasing and decreasing trend, where both minimum and maximum temperatures have shown an increasing trend. This will have a great impact on the smallholder dairy farmers who consist of over 95% of the existing farmers. Using available information and drawing from other contexts or countries where data or information is unavailable, we provide an overview of dairy production in Fiji as a prototype to other Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs), highlighting smallholder dairy systems in the Fijian dairy sector, challenges, and opportunities of the dairy sector in the PICTs. We conclude that climate change significantly impacts dairy production in Fiji and the Pacific.

1. Introduction

Global human population is expected to increase from 7.2 to 9.6 billion by 2050 representing a population increase of 33% [1]; hence, the demand for global animal-source protein such as dairy product is expected to increase due to increased human population and associated rise of the middle class. To meet the demand for animal-source protein, global livestock production needs to increase by 70%, putting pressure on agricultural land since about one-third of the global cereal harvest will be used for livestock feeds. However, climate change is a threat to livestock industry such as dairy production because of the impact on quality of feed crops and forages, water availability, diseases, animal reproduction, and biodiversity at a time when it is most needed. Therefore, the global challenge is to maintain a balance between dairy production, food security, and environmental preservation.

The impact of climate change on food systems and livelihoods is becoming more apparent globally. These impacts are more severe in low-middle income countries like the Pacific Island countries and territories (PICTs) that continuously experience extreme weather events such as droughts, cyclones, and heat stress. Additionally, Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs) have variable and unique geographical distributions and face similar challenges such as recurrent natural disasters, limited availability of fertile land, susceptibility to biosecurity threats, small economies, overreliance on tourism and changes in global markets, and small human and livestock populations [2, 3]. Furthermore, human population in PICTs is predicted to increase in several countries [4, 5, 6]. This will result in rapid expansion of the agricultural subsectors [7]. In dairy production, extreme weather events culminate in decreased animal health and productivity, decreased animal welfare, and reduced income to the affected communities and countries. Adapting dairy production practices can be useful in assisting dairy farmers in the PICTs adapt to climate changes. However, apart from climate change, there are other factors that may affect dairy production and these need to be considered to have a holistic view on challenges affecting dairy production in the PICTs and country’s ability to adapt and mitigate climate change. The expected expansion of the livestock sector including dairy production offers the PICTs an opportunity to increase their contribution to human diets. The impact of climate change to the livestock sector including dairy production in the Pacific is primarily due to rising temperatures, alterations in atmospheric CO₂ levels, changes in precipitation that results in floods and droughts, and a mix of the climate components that results in recurrent cyclones [8, 9]. The combination of these factors leads to poor quality and quantities of feed crops and forages, water availability for livestock, animal growth productivity, emergence of diseases, mortalities, and reduced reproduction [10, 11].

Factors such as climate change make the dairy systems vulnerable thus requiring adaptation to sustainable systems. Although livestock sector including dairy is unquestionably an essential component of food and socioecological systems [12, 13, 14], there are few studies on how it can be improved to become sustainable in the PICTs under climate change [15, 16]. Therefore, to enable PICTs transition to sustainable dairy production systems under climate change, it is necessary to: (a) understand potential challenges affecting sustainability, profitability, and resilience of dairy production systems in the PICTs and (b) provide strategies that could promote adaptation for dairy farmers in the PICTs.

We conclude that dairy production in the PICTs faces a myriad of challenges, and there is an opportunity to sustainably develop the sector given the increasing demand for dairy products. However, factors such as land conservation and management, effective disease control, and public financing of the dairy sector need to be considered to enhance dairy management practices in the PICTs. This study is an important starting point in developing sustainable and climate resilient dairy farming systems in the PICTs.

2. Fiji geographical location and topography

Fiji’s Island is unique in terms of land mass and diversity in topography. The nation consists of over 300 islands with a total of around 18,300 km² of land in the South Pacific region. The country lies between longitudes 175° E and 178° W, and latitudes 15° S and 22° S. Viti Levu, the country’s largest island (Figure 1), is characterized by relatively high topographical variation (Figure 1). Vanua Levu and Kadavu are located to the northeast and south of Viti Levu, respectively. The larger island is characterized by mountainous topography, which is known to influence rainfall over the country, with windward having high rainfall compared to the leeward side. This explains why orographic rainfall is the dominant form of precipitation in Fiji [17]. Furthermore, Fiji and the Pacific have been identified as particularly vulnerable to climatic change and variability, because of low adaptive capacity of the communities [18]. Below is the map of Fiji with its elevation values (Figure 1).

Figure 1.

Map of Fiji showing the islands and their elevation.

3. Overview of rainfall patterns over Fiji

Rainfall in Fiji Island is highly variable in space and time, influenced by the islands topography, and prevailing southeast trade winds. The mountains in Viti Levu create wet climatic zones on their windward side and dry climatic zones on their leeward side [19]. The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) controls the seasonal rainfall distribution over Fiji which is the main rainfall-producing synoptic system over the region. From November to April, the Fiji Islands are also frequented by tropical cyclones originating in the Pacific Ocean, which results in prolonged heavy rainfall and flooding of low-lying coastal areas [20]. The Pacific Ocean also plays central roles in the interannual variability of rainfall in Fiji. It is strongly associated with El Niño and La Niña Southern Oscillation (ENSO) [21]. La Niña is associated with above normal rainfall and a strong cyclone system, which results in floods. On the other hand, El Niño is associated with severe droughts that adversely affect agriculture and, in turn, cause food shortages [22]. Therefore, Fiji’s current and future sustainable socioeconomic development will heavily depend on its ability to cope with climate variability and adapt to future climate changes. The country experiences a unimodal rainfall pattern during the austral summer months (November to April), the months of May to October, that are generally dry (Figure 2). March appears to be the month with the highest rainfall amounts (wettest), while July is the driest. The average annual rainfall over Fiji is 2500 mm, which varies from year to year and place to place.

Figure 2.

Mean monthly rainfall over Fiji Island for the period 1971–2020.

The annual rainfall in Fiji’s western region ranges from 3000 to 4900 mm in the higher mountains, while it averages approximately 1900 mm in the center region (Table 1). It is evident from the fact that the yearly rainfall at Nadi (on the leeward side) is only approximately 60% of what is observed at Suva (on the windward side), and that orography has a significant effect in the spatial distribution of rainfall over Viti Levu. Summer rainfall in Nadi (western division) can reach 76% of the yearly total, while Suva (central division) receives 63% of the annual total (Table 1). Western is where the wet and dry seasons are more clearly visible, whereas Eastern and Central are wetter on both seasonal and annual average. The western division typically experiences bright or partly overcast skies, plenty of sunshine, a strong west to northwesterly sea breeze during the day, and generally cold temperatures at night. Summertime thunderstorms are frequent and are to blame for short bursts of heavy rain [19]. However, the relationship between rainfall patterns and dairy production has not well understood in the Pacific and requires investigation.

	Station	Lat	Lon	Annual	Summer Rainfall	Winter Rainfall	% contribution of summer Rain	% contribution of Winter Rain
1	ono-i-Lau	−20.67	178.72	1489.7	936.1	559.4	62.8	37.5
2	Yasawa-i-Rara	−16.7	177.58	1554.5	1131.1	426.4	72.8	27.4
3	Nacocolevu	−18.1	177.54	1738.6	1232.3	503.6	70.9	29.0
4	Matuku	−19.13	179.73	1663.7	1048.9	612.0	63.0	36.8
5	Nadi Airport	−17.76	177.44	1937.7	1502.8	437.1	77.6	22.6
6	Lakeba	−18.23	−178.8	1898.9	1281.0	623.5	67.5	32.8
7	Lautoka	−17.55	177.44	1970.2	1522.7	447.4	77.3	22.7
8	Savusavu	−16.81	179.34	2160.9	1381.7	774.8	63.9	35.9
9	Labasa Airfield	−16.47	179.34	2212.2	1732.6	468.7	78.3	21.2
10	Vunisea	−19.05	178.17	2174.2	1425.7	762.2	65.6	35.1
11	Penang Mill	−17.37	178.17	2298.4	1747.2	550.8	76.0	24.0
12	Seaqaqa	−16.59	179.14	2326.1	1829.0	491.1	78.6	21.1
13	Nabouwalu	−16.99	178.69	2404.1	1670.2	731.3	69.5	30.4
14	Udu Poin	−16.14	−179.99	2419.5	1681.6	733.6	69.5	30.3
15	Metei Airfield	−16.69	−179.58	2495.8	1645.2	862.9	65.9	34.6
16	Nausori Airport	−18.05	178.56	2963.1	1912.5	1059.2	64.5	35.7
17	Laucala	−18.03	178.45	3043.8	1919.5	1132.8	63.1	37.2
18	Rotuma	−12.5	177.05	3369.5	1868.0	1493.9	55.4	44.3
19	Tokotoko_Navua	−18.22	178.17	3232.8	1897.6	1290.4	58.7	39.9
20	monasavu	−17.75	178.05	4942.3	3249.9	1628.2	65.8	32.9

Table 1.

Fiji weather stations and rainfall distributions.

4. Overview of temperature pattern in Fiji

Fiji’s climate is tropical and surface air temperatures in summer (between November and April) are, in general, only slightly higher than in the winter months (between May and October) such that the seasonal variations are not large (Figure 3). Fiji being an Island country, the diurnal temperature range is generally (8.0°C) low, and this is due to contrasts in heat capacity and moisture supply between land and ocean. The mean temperature has low temporal variability, with a difference of 3.61°C between the warmest month (February) and the coolest month (July) [23]. The cool season, the months of May to October, is generally dry. The western side of Viti Levu is a relatively dry zone and is subject to large seasonal variations in both maximum and minimum temperatures relative to the eastern wet side.

Figure 3.

Annual temperature cycle Fiji based on dataset 1970–2020.

5. Rainfall and temperature trends

Both minimum and maximum temperatures over Fiji have increased overtime (Figure 4), Temperature maximum has the greatest increase as compared with the minimum temperature. Ongoma et al. found out that the temperature change is 0.1°C/decade for maximum temperature, 0.04°C per decade for minimum temperature, and 0.07°C/decade for mean temperature [23]. This change in temperature in Fiji is slightly lower than the global of 0.24°C/decade [24].

Figure 4.

Temperature trend for Fiji (a) maximum temperature and (b) minimum temperature.

On the other hand, rainfall in Fiji has a higher year-to-year variation than the variation due to the long-term trend (Figure 5). There are stations that show decreasing trends, while others show increasing trends. The increasing trends are observed in stations in the western part of Fiji, while those in the central and Easter show a decreasing trend, although the trends are statistically insignificant. However, the effect of rainfall and temperature changes on dairy production is not investigated in the Pacific.

Figure 5.

Annual rainfall time series with linear trend line for various meteorological stations in Fiji.

6. Dairy farming systems in the Pacific

The rural population in the Pacific Island Countries (PICs) benefits greatly from raising ruminant livestock such as beef and dairy cattle. Dairy cattle produce milk that can be converted into cash to cater for significant costs like higher education [25]. The production system is largely determined by land area, land demand, culture, tradition, number of cattle, and feed availability with little variation between countries. However, these grazing systems, including tethering and free-range smallholder units, are found in every Pacific Island country. Low-quality feeds are supplemented by shrub leaves for maintenance, weight gain, and other physiological processes. In Fiji, the cornerstones of dairy feeding systems are tethering with limited grazing, along with some cut-and-carry to the cattle feeding zone. There is usually lack of feedlots for livestock although dairy animals are frequently fed supplementary feeds [26]. This alone makes the systems vulnerable to climate change. According to Nube and Voortman [27] previously, the South Pacific region relied mostly on crop agriculture for sustenance, with animals kept as a backup in case of crop failure; as a result, the ruminant livestock sector is not as well-established. The increasing demand for meat, dairy, and other animal products has increased livestock production among farmers. The overall underdevelopment of the livestock sector including dairy production in the region may be attributed to a few factors, including a shortage of feed, negative social attitudes, insufficient technology for disease management, marketing, and extension services.

There is a dry and a rainy season in Fiji whereby the country receives the majority of its yearly precipitation during the rainy season (November–April), which is characterized by intense, transient local showers. On the major islands, annual precipitation varies between 2000 and 4500 millimeters (mm) in the highlands and between 1600 and 3000 mm (mm) in low-lying areas and along the shore. It is common for smaller islands in Fiji to get rainfall ranging from 1500 to 3500 mm less precipitation than the main island [28]. Livestock is gaining significance among smallholders in cyclone-prone countries, such as Fiji, due to the frequent occurrence of cyclones during the wet season. This is attributed to the greater resilience of livestock as compared to crops in the face of cyclonic events [25].

6.1 Dairy production in Fiji

According to the dairy milk, production sector in Fiji has not been characterized by a well-structured farming system [29]. Most dairy farms in the region are classified as semi-commercial based on the quantity of milk delivered to the processor. The number of smallholder farmers has increased over the past decade; however, dairy farming has had a significant decline due to large farms closure that has greatly impacted rural household lifestyles and income, although over 95% are smallholder dairy farmers (Figure 6). The dairy farming industry has had a favorable impact on augmenting the livelihoods and earnings of rural households, which has resulted in a rise in the number of smallholder farmers over the past decade, as reported (Figure 6) [29, 30, 31].

Figure 6.

Dynamics and distribution of diary cattle in the 2023 registered farms by FCDCL in Fiji.

Fiji’s agricultural sector comprises three primary farming systems, namely subsistence, semi-commercial, and commercial [32]. Many farms are owned by the indigenous population, also known as iTaukei. Specifically, 65.4% of farms are owned through the traditional mataqali system, while 17% are leased from the iTaukei Land Trust Board (iTLTB). A mere 7.7% of farms are classified as freehold (Figure 7). Approximately 90% of all farmers are classified as smallholder subsistence to semi-commercial farmers (Figure 6). The remaining 10% of the population comprises commercial farmers who play a significant role in generating export earnings and providing employment opportunities for Pacific Islanders [33]. The agricultural sector in Fiji is predominantly reliant on smallholder farmers, which poses a challenge to the improvement of farm profitability.

Figure 7.

Characterized the land type in Fiji dairy farms. Most of the farms belong to crown land with a total of 37% (n = 56) followed by Mataqali land with a total of 22% (n = 33). About 13% (n = 20) of the farms are freehold land with 1% of the farms under Lease & Mataqali and lease and freehold.

As per the findings of the 2020 Fiji Agriculture Census, Fiji currently has a collective count of 6144 farms and an excess of 49,650 dairy cattle, constituting 26.7% of the overall livestock population. Additionally, it has been reported that more than 300 farms are registered under Fiji Dairy Corporate Company Limited (FCDCL), as per Group, W. B. [31] findings. With respect to the objective of dairy production, the majority of the milk produced, specifically 79.5%, was sold, while 17.1% was utilized for domestic consumption, 2.3% was distributed as gifts, and 1.1% was deemed unsuitable for use. Furthermore, the Central Division accounted for 71.2% of the total milk production at the divisional level, followed by the Western Division at 24.3%, the Northern Division at 4.5%, and the Eastern Division at 0.03% [30]. Annually, the nation’s milk consumption amounts to approximately 80 million liters, while the domestic milk production amounts to a total of 20 million liters, with approximately half of it being contributed by the commercial sector and the other half by the unofficial sector. Consequently, the local demand for milk is met by importing approximately 60 million liters of milk annually [29].

6.2 Contribution of smallholder dairy systems to the Fijian dairy industry

The primary enterprise responsible for milk processing in Fiji is the Rewa Co-operative Dairy Company (RCDC), which underwent a name change in 2010 to become the Fiji Co-operative Dairy Company Limited (FCDCL). The FCDCL is situated in the Central Division of Viti Levu, the primary island of Fiji, which is also the location where the majority of dairy farmers operate [34]. During the period of 2005 to 2008, it was observed that the Fiji Co-operative Dairy Company Limited (FCDCL) received milk supply from a total of 260 dairy milk suppliers. However, only 80% of these suppliers were estimated to have provided milk to FCDCL. As indicated earlier, FCDCL received milk from a total of 206 farmers, while 35 other farmers directly provided fresh milk, ghee, and cream to consumers. Approximately 80% of registered dairy farmers are smallholder farmers who operate on a smaller scale due to the size of their farms. The smallholder farmers contributed to 44% of the fresh milk supplied to FCDCL, and they also tend to keep other species of livestock. Although ruminant livestock are not as numerous as non-ruminant livestock, they can boost smallholders’ revenues. The bulk of ruminant livestock is owned by smallholders; thus, the adaptation of smallholder dairy farmers to climate change is vital. Further, PICs governments support to the smallholder dairy farmers can substitute importation of dairy products, create self-sufficiency for animal protein, and generating revenue for farmers [25].

7. Potential challenges affecting sustainability and resilience of dairy production in Fiji and the PICTs to climate change

7.1 Small and varying dairy cattle populations

Profitable dairy production depends on productive lactating cattle and replacement stock at the farm level. In the PICTs, although dairy cows’ population data are limited, available data for Fiji and Tonga indicate a varying degree in dairy population growth. The data indicate that in Fiji dairy cattle increased from 22,551 in 2009 to 49,650 in 2019 representing an increase in 54.5% [32].

7.2 Global market shocks and importation of processed dairy products

There is limited data on imported dairy products in PICTs. There are few countries with reliable but dispersed data like Fiji which reveal that various dairy products are imported into PICTs [35]. In Fiji, the milk imported in 2020 was 2077.5 tons and 2740.6 tons in 2021 representing an increase in 24.2%, while other dairy products were 3795.6 and 4023.2 tons in 2020 and 2021, respectively, which represent an increase of 5.7%.

7.3 Occurrence of infectious cattle diseases and poor husbandry practices

A search for published articles on cattle diseases in the PICTs revealed limited information. Data from the few studies on dairy cattle showed that leptospirosis, brucellosis, tuberculosis, and helminths are the major dairy cattle diseases [36, 37, 38].

Animal husbandry practices are poor mainly due to insufficient technical knowledge, skills, and methods by the existing extension officers [39]. The government on the other hand continues to support and increases the number of trainings on dairy husbandry specialist areas, e.g., disease management, through their policies and programs but the university curriculums might need to be revised [39]. Farmers who have no formal dairy training try to improve their management and husbandry skills by going online for husbandry information, some of which could be found from the dairy officers within the government offices.

7.4 Limited livestock genetic resources

In the Pacific region, there exists a limited quality of genetic materials for breeding and production. This is worsened by limited access to improved genetic material from the neighboring developed economies such as Australia and New Zealand; when accessed they are usually expensive for the local farmers. Some of the factors contributing to the limited improvement of genetic resources in PICTs include lack of incentives for breeding and production, unknown diversity of animal genetic resources, and the conservation of specific animal genetic resources for future utilization. Available local breeds that are not high producers have resorted to inbreeding that gives rise to poor production.

7.5 High cost and lack of quality animal feeds

The high cost of livestock feed is one of the major constraints in the dairy industry. The main reason for the high cost of stock feed is due to its importation in the PICTs. As a result of the local stock feed shortage, imported feed is essential to cater for the dairy population. High costs of compounded or balanced feed (most imported) result in high cost of local products, and local producers cannot compete with imported products. Expensive animal feeds lead to higher production costs, thus contributing to higher prices for local dairy products supply, which further leads to cheaper consumer alternatives found on the imported products. There is limited availability (seasonal) and capacity to incorporate locally available feedstuffs in feed rations. Research on cheaper, more readily available alternatives for animal feed, will be very helpful for the dairy industries in the Pacific countries.

7.6 Inadequate livestock investment policies

In many Pacific Island countries, agriculture is a top governmental priority to encourage employment creation, food and nutrition security, and economic growth. Many of the existing policies are geared toward crop production with little attention to livestock such as dairy sector. Despite the existence of codified plans and strategies for agricultural development, these objectives have generally not been adequately funded by the government, and there has also been a dearth of implementation of funding to the livestock sector. To encourage and defend private sector investment and ensure the sector’s viability, countries in the Pacific region must enact policies, provide high-level assistance, enforce rules, invest in infrastructure, and promote institutional innovations. However, potential policy pathways to improve access to and affordability of quality inputs and productive assets for feed and livestock production are possibly poorly understood by policymakers and decision-makers or are understudied. These aspects should be a future direction for research.

8. Climate change and its effect on dairy production in Fiji

The agricultural industry is highly susceptible to climatic changes, and the potential consequences of climate change could significantly jeopardize the sector’s sustained productivity in the long term [40]. Heat stress is one of the significant impacts of climate change on dairy productivity. Heat stress lowers the organic and inorganic milk components produced by dairy cows, causing substantial financial burdens on the farmers [41]. It affects milk production and animal health and reduces reproduction efficiency [42]. The hot climate impacts cattle and causes direct and indirect heat stress on livestock output [43]. The reproduction efficiency of livestock is also highly vulnerable to climate change [44]. In cows, increasing temperature and high heat radiation load can negatively impact the reproductive rhythm via the hypothalamic-hypophyseal-ovarian axis [45]. Heat stress also results in reduced length and intensity of the estrous period, adversely affecting their conception due to reduced estradiol secretion [46, 47]. In addition, during pregnancy, heat stress can slow down embryonic development, resulting in reduced fetal growth and subsequently small calf size [48]. In some instances, heat stress in dairy livestock has caused early embryonic deaths [49].

Cyclones, droughts, floods, heat waves, and other extreme weather phenomena like storm surges frequently seen in the Pacific region can cause reduced livestock production as well as injury and mortality, particularly in more intense commercial operations with pigs, chickens, and dairy cattle. Flooding can restrict access to usable pasture in the short term, and if it continues, it will eventually harm or kill inundated grass. In addition to causing damage to roads, fences, wells, feeding stalls, and other management infrastructure, high winds and flooding can also have a negative impact on livestock productivity. Floods can also endanger cattle and humans by spreading water-borne illnesses [50] as well as infections that are transmitted by aquatic-stage vectors [51]. Annually, milk production is the lowest in the summer when rejection of milk is common due to high curd content. It is at this time that rainfall and temperature are highest, flood, and cyclones threats are the greatest in the Pacific. A 2% decrease in production level will occur for every degree that the ambient temperature rises [52]. Fiji milk production has been declining in the last decade due to extreme climatic changes and emergence of livestock diseases.

9. Recommended strategies to support climate change adaptation for sustainable dairy production in the PICTs

Different species of dairy cattle, dairy production systems and climate conditions are observed in the Pacific. This requires dairy production in the Pacific to adjust towards a sustainability climate change adaptation and mitigation systems [53]. Additionally, it is important to consider the environmental impact due to emission and pollution that may occur due to these dairy mitigation strategies in the Pacific [54]. Specifically, methane emissions by enteric fermentation are reported to be increased with greenhouse gas emission, with nitrous oxide reduction causing the leaching of nitrate and ammonia in the mixed farming system [55]. However, this is not well understood in the Pacific and requires further investigation. Mitigation mostly occurs directly or indirectly by improving dairy production system efficiency [56, 57]. For sustainable livestock production in the Pacific region, policies that encourage climate change adaptations, mitigations, greater productivity, and broader markets for animal products are required [58]. The next section discusses several potential strategies that can support ecosystem-based adaptation measures to boost dairy population, productivity, reduce dependency on imported processed dairy products, and mitigate impacts of climate change.

9.1 Development of appropriate and efficient dairy production systems

Globally, intensive livestock production systems have become key significant drivers in promoting sustainable livestock production. However, enforcing biosecurity, environmental regulations, and zoning will be required for disease prevention and management [59]. Approximately 90% of the cattle produced on the Pacific Island nations today are raised extensively. This production system remains within limits that are sustainable to the environment even if it is expanded to more than three times the current production levels. Many modern dairy facilities, however, are not well-regulated and are situated close to water coasts, rendering them susceptible to flooding and frequent cyclone storms in the Pacific. Additionally, they follow limited sound dairy husbandry principles. Ignoring good animal husbandry practices while setting up and managing livestock production operations is damaging to the environment and could also disrupt investments and decrease profitability.

In the Pacific region, governments play a vital role in controlling the growth and operation of the dairy sector. Modern dairy production growth depends on sustainable dairy intensification [60]. However, small- and medium-scale farmers can expand their operations and increase production with correct zoning, site selection for livestock, resource efficiency enhancements, energy-efficient water waste systems, recirculating animal waste systems, and backyard farming. These home farming methods can be used in many locations, even those close to cities and in climates that are unsuited for raising large numbers of livestock. Small-scale farming in cities, which is anticipated to take place because of population expansion, and the production of fresh goods closer to cities can enhance urban nutrition security.

9.2 Livestock genetic resources improvement and management

National resources for breeding and strain improvement in livestock are limited and insufficient. Because livestock strains in the PICTs yield less than optimum compared to improved strains elsewhere, access to superior animal breeds would increase output. Disease resistance and feed efficiency standards should be included in livestock breeding because most livestock in the PICTs are not selected. However, genetically modified livestock encounter opposition in many nations, which is motivated by worries they would threaten the survival of native livestock breeds. To understand how well-performing native and non-genetically modified livestock breeds performed in various management and agro-ecological systems, it will be necessary to gather enough benchmarking data, expand breed performance trials, conduct risk and economic assessments of alternative breeds, and increase the capacity and readiness of national strategies and the private sector to manage the modified livestock breeds in the PICTs.

Breed selection is currently employed to improve dairy production efficiency, and to improve and upscale massive production rate in the livestock sectors [61]. However, some selected breeds of species with improved productivity elicit higher metabolic heat production which exposes them to heat stress [62, 63]. Many livestock breed in the PICT remain uncharacterized. Thus, there is a great need for selection of genetically improved breed with adaptive mechanism against the effect of climate change toward improving productivity and efficiency [64]. Genetic selection of improved breed with heritability trails toward mitigating climate change effects as seen in the selection of Bos indicus cattle in Africa could be beneficial for the PICTs [64, 65].

9.3 Animal disease management practices to improve livestock health and production

In order to increase animal health and welfare, lower the financial burden of animal diseases, increase food safety, and lessen the possibility of antibiotic resistance, it is also crucial to invest in veterinary services and animal disease surveillance [66]. Animal disease prevention can stop the transmission of deadly zoonotic diseases at their source, where it is most cost-effective to act, as well as the spread of animal viruses to humans. Good livestock management improves the “One Health” plan, which strives to improve the health of humans, animals, and the environment.

Significant output losses are brought on by infectious diseases. In this context, several PICTs have stopped importing livestock inputs and products from nations with suspected transboundary animal diseases, significantly reducing supply and productivity. However, long-term solutions necessitate ongoing disease monitoring and surveillance both within and across borders, rapid diagnosis, and strengthening biosecurity at the farm and breeding locations. Unfortunately, currently in the region, there are hardly any specialists and reference laboratories specializing in livestock health management.

9.4 Innovation for affordable and quality animal feeds

A few large-scale feed companies exist (e.g., Pacific Feeds). For local feed producers, importing raw materials and processing equipment are expensive. Research on cheaper, more readily available alternatives for animal feed will be very helpful for the livestock industries in the Pacific countries. Recent innovations can increase livestock productivity, generate environmental benefits through efficient use of feed waste, and contribute to a circular economy. These new innovations utilize food that has been abandoned along the food supply chain as well as underutilized local products as a carbon source, including cassava peels, rice bran, and maize bran.

About 60% of the global biomass produced worldwide enters the livestock subsystem as feed or bedding material [67]. Greenhouse gas emissions from feed production represent 80% of the emission coming from eggs, chicken, and pigs and 35–45% of the milk and beef sectors [68]. The application of manure as fertilizer for crops and the deposition of manure on pastures generate a substantial amount of nitrous oxide emissions representing about half of these emissions [69]. Although livestock feed production often involves large applications of nitrogen to the soils, good manure management can reduce the need for manufactured fertilizers to be added to the soil during farming [70, 71].

9.5 Altering grazing intensity and/or manure use to enhance carbon sequestration

Overgrazing by livestock and other herbivores is associated with decreased plant growth, vegetation density, and biomass that lead to carbon input to the soil system [72]. Carbon sequestration is linked to excessive grazing, which is often detrimental to plant communities and soil carbon stocks [73]. The grazing system is fundamentally related to soil carbon stock [73]. The change in grazing system to intensive system depletes the soil carbon stock and grassland ecosystem with associated impact to sequestration of atmospheric CO₂ [74]. The grassland ecosystem takes up atmospheric CO₂ and mineral nutrients which are all converted into organic products to enhance forage growth. However, in grassland ecosystem, carbon stock on the soil is assimilated directly toward fiber, forage production, and growth conditions [75]. The ecosystem of the PICTs could greatly benefit from such integration. It is well established that ecosystems are a major source of biogenic greenhouse gas, CO₂, nitrous oxide, and methane gas [76]. However, when altered the carbon balance changes resulting in loss of respiration from photosynthesis even in matured old grasses [77, 78]. Notably, excessive forage consumption by livestock leads to substantial loss in carbon from soil and grasses [79]. Biomass in grassland is herbaceous with a small transient carbon pool, which mostly determines the carbon stock [80]. Intensive livestock production systems increase livestock forage production, which may contribute to soil carbon stock resulting in sequestration of atmospheric carbon in the soils [74]. Changes in the management system augment this effect leading to improvement in the favorable forage grasses and legumes. This management system includes soil fertilization, irrigation, and integrated grazing management system in the PICTs [81]. A rotation farming system with grass, hay, or pasture results to large impact on soil carbon stocks, with manure adding to soil organic matter build-up on the farmland [79]. Additionally, the use of seeded grasses for cover cropping increases carbon input to the soil by increasing the time required to by plants to atmospheric CO₂ in cropland systems [82]. Altering the management of grazing system with may reverse carbon sequestration produced by bushfire management and fertilization [83].

9.6 Improving grazing management

The changes in soil health improve the dairy farmer’s potential to adapt to and mitigate the impact of climate change, which is the greatest factor that affects dairy cattle grazing management [84]. Grazing and grassland conversation has gained a lot attention toward dairy cattle grazing management [85]. Approximately, 25–30% of the earth surface can be used for grazing, and proper grazing management will increase production in the dairy production system [85, 86]. However, the livelihood of large populations of individuals is affected by climate change’s effect on the grazing land [87]. Grazing land provides a significant ecosystem service by reducing runoff and erosion, protecting water quality, and providing wildlife habitat and recreational areas, thereby supporting habitat biodiversity [88]. It is reported that management of grassland together with grazing management system services contributes to climate change mitigation and adaptation. However, the lichening act of overgrazing and erosion results in changes in the soil texture and impacts crop production. Identifying the best management system in grazing and ecosystem services will go a long way in protecting and improving the grazing management toward providing adequate feed to the livestock in the PICTs [89].

Due to several uncertainties in the PICTs, several approaches to improve grazing management have earlier been proposed [84]. Integrated grazing and pastures could be intensively managed in a diverse cropping system with extended resting of lands and ecosystem services to improve grazing management systems [84]. This will have a great impact on the tradeoffs related to ecosystem, livelihoods, and socioeconomic factors in the PICTs [84]. Ecosystem service is a once clear factor that majorly affects the grazing land management system with climate change resilience serving as a critical point for increase rainfall variability in an area such as PICTs [90]. However, improving the effective water management in soils to capture more rainfall and make its available to plants during drier times is recommended [90]. In addition, soil water content is known to be linked to soil carbon and soil organic matter content that could further improve both crop and grazing land management’s [91]. Hydro-properties associated with porosity and plant available water are linked to agricultural systems [92]. Continuous grazing strategy is a more complex strategy in grazing management toward improving full grass-based systems [92]. Changing stock densities is reported by several studies to be another basic strategy for improving grazing management systems in mitigating the effect of climate change [89]. Grazing system increases infiltration rates, which is basic mechanisms in grazing management strategy [84].

Sustainability of land and soil management systems is important in improving grazing management to enhance grass yield production for livestock [93]. The nature of the soil represents the major tools for climatic change mitigation, by altering the management process in which soil provides a wide range of services in sustainability of the crop production [94]. The grassland management system, soil properties, and quality support dairy farmers in protecting the negative impact of climate change on livestock production.

9.7 Management of land resources

The geomorphological parameters such as hill-slope structure, runoff pathways, topographic wetness, and sediment sinks determine the potential for water to be transported through a dairy production system [95]. The soil and landscape processes together form the connectivity of the landscape [95]. The process of understanding this makes it possible to predict how the dairy system reacts to changes in the drivers in terms of water and sediment connectivity. The design of these landscapes is mostly based on the cascade of processes that work together with nature to manage land and water resources [95]. The assessment can be linked to all parameters and processes that influence the structural and functional of dairy production systems in the PICTs. For example, mulching promotes plot scale infiltrations, reduces the runoff, and increases water availability for agriculture [96]. These management strategies can mitigate risks like flooding, agricultural droughts, and extreme soil erosion events to enhance biodiversity of pastures for dairy production [96, 97].

9.8 Provision of subsidized extensions services to livestock farmers to enhance their knowledge

The shortage of skilled staff is a recurring issue for livestock enterprises in the Pacific region. A lack of cutting-edge knowledge and agribusiness skills, as well as poor record keeping, hygiene, stocking, feeding, and water management procedures, hinders the production and revenues of small-scale agricultural businesses. Governments of Pacific Island countries must invest in boosting the skills of livestock extension agents and livestock-farmer groups in order to encourage training and disseminate sound farming techniques. Practical animal husbandry training programs in universities and technical institutions, in addition to government extension initiatives, would provide professionals with crucial knowledge [39]. Additionally, information and communication technology, such as radio, television, and smartphone apps, provide information and help to farmers at a reasonable cost and can be used for data collection to monitor and improve productivity.

9.9 Adjustment of public investment policy and support to farmers

In many Pacific Island countries, agriculture is a top governmental priority in order to encourage employment creation, food and nutrition security, and economic growth. Despite the existence of codified plans and strategies for agricultural development, these objectives have generally not been adequately funded by the government, and there has also been a dearth of implementation. To encourage and defend private sector investment and ensure the sector’s viability, countries in the Pacific region must enact policies, provide high-level assistance, enforce rules, invest in infrastructure, and promote institutional innovations. Simpler and more efficient business practices reduced taxes to promote the expansion of agricultural businesses and lower import duties on items like machinery needed for domestic production of cattle and animal feeds are just a few examples of enabling policies. However, potential policy pathways to improve access to and affordability of quality inputs and productive assets for feed and livestock production are possibly poorly understood by policymakers and decision-makers or are understudied. These aspects should be a future direction for research.

Due to high transportation costs and unpredictable energy, the Pacific has a difficult time attracting and maintaining private sector investment and livestock value chains. Additionally, livestock, especially poultry, are highly susceptible to mortality, and livestock products can spoil while being produced, distributed, and transported. The building and maintenance of roads, transit systems, and electricity to cold power chains therefore demand investment. For instance, FCDCL’s initiative to construct chilling milk plants in Fiji has increased dairy farmers’ income and reduced milk losses. In some Pacific countries, current efforts to save infrastructure and logistical expenses include developing clusters or hubs of livestock farms and satellite farming that can be combined with service packages to minimize costs. Intensive livestock farmers are increasingly interested in solar energy as it becomes necessary for more intense, highly productive livestock companies.

Dairy farming has recently become riskier because of animal diseases like bovine tuberculosis, illustrated by the forced closure of some farms in Fiji with high prevalence. Due to this, private sector investment in this area has stagnated. In the short and medium term, government, development financial institutions, impact investors, and innovative financing may result to interest-free loans to farmers to initiate fresh waves of economic growth in the dairy subsector. In order to increase livestock output, correct zoning and location in acceptable and suitable locations are required. To prevent negative environmental effects and disruptions in investments and activities related to livestock, good practices must be enforced.

Data-driven and evidence-based policy reform and decision-making by stakeholders will be made possible by improving the quality of data collection, monitoring systems, and assessment for livestock food systems from the economic, social, and environmental dimensions and utilizing low-cost digital technologies, creative crowdsourcing, and public-private partnerships. Currently, few accurate production statistics available, and data from institutions such as the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, do not always align with other sources such as industry production estimates. Overall, there are not many thorough impact analyses of livestock rising in the Pacific.

10. Conclusion

Although livestock farmers in the PICT face several challenges such as low livestock productivity, livestock diseases, overreliance on imported livestock products, and impacts of climate change, there is an opportunity to improve dairy production systems to cater for the growing population. Ecosystem-based adaptation practices, such as land conservation and management, nutrient recycling through use of animal manure, and utilization of genetic diversity, and climate change mitigation measures such as efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, will be required to help conserve the ability of the agro-ecological systems to sustain dairy production, profitability, and ecosystem services. However, broader policies on dairy production such as disease control, animal feed processing, and public financing of the livestock sector will be required to aid transitioning to resilient dairy production in the PICTs.

Acknowledgments

The study was funded by the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR), project number LS/2019/119.

Author contributions

RM conceived and drafted the article. AD reviewed the first draft and wrote sections of the manuscript. WM, SG, and RR summarized the data from animal census reports. PS and WO carried out analysis and interpretation of results and wrote part of the manuscript. PI revised the manuscript critically for important intellectual content. All authors read and approved the manuscript.

Disclosure statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Ethics and consent

Not applicable.

Data availability statement

The data that support the findings of this study are openly available in Ministry of Agriculture; National Agriculture census report published online and Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS).