The Nexus of Climate Change, Urban Infrastructure and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries

Abstract

This study weighed in on the topical issue of climate change disasters and sustainable urbanization in developing countries. Climate change is a global challenge and burning discourse at many national and international fora. The study ruminates on the lot and plight of cities and peri-urban communities in developing countries amidst the rising concern over climate change pattern and hazards. Scoping review of relevant literatures was used for the research method. Specifically, studies relating to the basic concept, that is climate change, urban infrastructure and sustainable development were reviewed qualitatively in order to present the viewpoint of the current study. The study scrutinized the threats of climate change across the globe as well as the implications for dwellers in developing countries like Nigeria. The process of urbanization and the state of infrastructure were also highlighted. Vulnerability of urban settlements in terms of infrastructure shortage was brought to the fore in order to enhance their preparedness and capacity to withstand the pangs of extreme weather events. The study concluded by advocating positive urbanization in developing countries which is the essence of sustainable development of human settlements.

1. Introduction

The rising spate of phenomenon and disaster associated with the global warming and resultant extreme weather events in the 21st century have beamed attention on climate change in most national and international discourse. Across the world, the rising incidence of various environmental, ecological and atmospheric disruptions such as extreme heat, heat wave, wildfire, heavy winds, hurricane, heavy rain, storm surge, flooding, rising sea level, snow storm, landslide, drought, etc. have been largely attributed to the unusual fluctuations of weather elements and the climatic system. The havocs wrecked by these events endanger humanity, environment and economic system of nations and as a result, reports oftentimes present a universal dimension of the phenomenon. According to the World Bank [1], climate change portends severe dangers to all living things, the entire ecosystem and infrastructure. Furthermore, countries around the world are persistently affected by the unusual patterns of dangerous climate events. Apart from the qualitative description of the magnitude, the phenomenon has also been buttressed with scientific proof and quantitative assessment of the impact [2], averred that prior to industrial revolution, the amount of atmospheric carbon-dioxide (CO₂) was within 260–280 part per million by volume (ppmv), but have risen by about 36 per cent to about 380 ppmv in the last (20th) century. In the same manner [3], found that since the arrival of industrialization, the concentrations of methane (CH₄) and CO₂ have risen by 70 per cent beginning from 1970 to 2004. The [4] concluded that the rise in global temperature often referred to as global warming is real. The report further affirmed that the mean earth heat has increased by 0.76°C and sea level has risen by 17 cm in nineteenth century. Likewise, some world’s leading climate scientist in 2008, strongly advocates urgent reduction of CO₂ emission [2] to forestall calamity. According to the experts, “paleoclimate signal and current climate fluctuations suggest that there is need for reducing atmospheric carbon-dioxide from its current 385 ppmv to at most 350 ppmv, else, the consequences would be irremediable tragedy [5].

The gap between the elite and the poor is getting wider as a result of the havocs of the climate change. As the hazards strains the financial resources of the rich, it further impoverish the poor, thereby aggravating their vulnerability. As often revealed in reports, the cost of climate fluctuations calamity across the globe is usually enormous. For instance, flooding in Sante Fe, Argentina displaced one-third of the city population and affected 27,928 households [6]. Damages were approximated at US$ 1 billion: US$ 752,000,000 in manufacturing, animal husbandry, agriculture and trade sectors; US$ 180,000,000 in infrastructure damages while societal loss was put at US$ 91,000,000 [6]. In Nigeria, the destructive pattern of inclement weather elements have aggravated socio-economic and infrastructure damage and loss. [7] recorded that an estimate of US$ 45 million was lost annually in twelve states due to erratic heavy winds, heavy rain and storm surge in 16 years. By implication, the sum of US$ 2.2 billion was lost across the thirty-six states and the federal capital territory within the period. The report further showed that the overall financial loss as a result of the rising precipitation and heavy wind rose from US$ 23.6 million to US$ 82.2 million between 1992 and 2007, with the highest of USD91.5 million in 2006 and lowest of US$ 17.97 million in 1994 respectively. Across the globe, coastal cities are witnessing unprecedented rise in sea level, massive flooding, horrendous storm/hurricane, severe erosion, saltwater incursion and disruption in sedimentation formation [8]. It was further revealed that tropical gales upset 1.4 billion people, which constitutes 24 percent of the riverine settlers. Furthermore, in 2010, floods tragedy in Pakistan and Chile affected about 18,102,237 and 134,000,000 people, caused 1985 and 1691 deaths and damages estimated at US$ 9.5 billion and US$ 18 billion respectively [9]. Hurricane Katrina that ravaged New Orleans in 2005 also caused the death of 1833 persons, displacement of 500,000 people and a loss of US$ 125 billion. In Senegal, the World Bank estimates the value of assets exposed to flooding at about €40 billion (Forty billion Euro), twice the Gross Domestic Product of the country [10]. According to [11], over the past ten years, climate change has caused about 3852 catastrophes, the death of more than 780,000 and displaced over 2 billion people with property worth more than US$ 960 billion lost to the tragedy.

Arising from the above, the reality of climate change and its huge financial implications of the consequences become very conspicuous. Reports across the world according to [12] showed disturbing pattern of climate change consequences. Nonetheless, public discourse generally has attributed disparate level of urgency to issues of climate change thereby prioritizing it above other critical economic and environmental debacles that threaten human existence. Davenport et al. [13] stated that up to 70 member states of the United Nations significantly prioritize climate change risk above security risk. Nations have essentially ascribed the various socio-economic, ecological, environmental, political and security problems to climate change. [14] observed that most countries face economic, political, and social hardship resulting from uncertainties occasioned by climate change hazards. According to [15], countries like Turkey, Brazil, Egypt and Iraq are confronted with security risk triggered by the conflict among armed forces due to the consequences of climate change. A notable example of security challenge of continental significance is the herders’ militancy in Nigeria whose violent clashes with farmers have always claim lifes and properties.

Whilst not playing down the danger that climate change poses, it is important to know that the spate of havocs wrecked by climate change events in recent times is as a result of aggressive industrialization and urbanization in the last two centuries. Besides, there are numerous challenges in rural and urban areas around the world that have undermined human dignity and normal/decent existence over the years. These challenges have been aggravated in recent times by climate change. The diverse socio-economic, political, environmental and security challenges in different countries are first and foremost, symptoms of policy failure, bad governance, mismanagement and lack of political will especially in developing countries. These consequently get complicated by the erratic climate manifestations. In this regards, the universal perspective of climate change hazards tends to obfuscate the experience at regional and local levels. Therefore, prioritizing climate change problems over other basic societal challenges engender the risk of mis-characterization, misplaced focus, waste of scarce resources, death and damages to properties and environment. Certainly, climate change according to [8] is intricately connected to urbanization, but not the most severe environmental issues facing humanity. Hardoy and Pandiella [16] concluded that climate change has put the already vulnerable urban settlements under enormous stress thereby making the situation require quick and comprehensive approach to resolve the problems. The socio-economic and environmental problems facing developing nations include acute poverty, widespread illiteracy, insecurity, gender inequality, environmental pollution, infrastructure deficit, unemployment and poor governance to mention a few. In the light of the foregoing, it becomes imperative to put in context the diverse challenges that confront developing countries and develop a comprehensive framework to resolve them. Finding solutions to these issues engender the resilience of human settlements against the impact of climate change in Nigeria and other developing countries.

2. Theoretical framework: theory of change

This study is anchored on the postulations of the theory of change as explained in [17, 18]. The theory of change according to [19] has a wide range of possible uses in developing, managing and evaluating interventions that are meant to produce a desired long term change. Reinholz and Andrews [20] described a set of assumptions that should be taken to achieve a long term goal as well as the linkages between the activities and results of an intervention program. Davies [21] stated that theory of change is a process that is meant to evolve an articulated sequence of events that will eventually usher in the expected outcome. The study further described the theory as a strategic map that shows the multiple interventions required to produce immediate results and are pre-conditioned to a long time change. It depicts the pathway that is consistent to producing the impact expected to support the desired long term change. In the application of the theory of change, [22] suggest that to accomplish a successful change, there is need to empower the driving forces and weaken the restraining forces. This according to [22] could be achieved through the following:

1. intensifying the driving forces responsible for diverting the behavior away from the present situation;

2. reducing the influence of forces that adversely affect the movement away from the existing situation; or

3. combining the two methods

The relevance of the theory of change to the current study is contained in the inherent popular interest to tackle the environmental and ecological hazards unleashed by global warming. The incidence of climate change has been debated in the past decades, however, the reality is being established by the ominous signs of its impacts globally. Notwithstanding, the hype about the phenomenon in developing countries distract attention from issues that are grave, grievous and constitute daily threat to human existence in this part of the globe. As such the study believe in prompt intervention as enunciated in the theory of change and align with [22] to empower the driving forces and weaken the restraining forces especially for the developing nations. This could be achieved by developing appropriate policy and developmental interventions in the areas of urbanization process and infrastructure delivery based on the principles of sustainable development. This would ultimately reinforce the capacity to withstand and combat the periodic barge of climate change in less advanced countries.

3. Methodology

Scoping review was adopted as the research method for undertaking this study. This approach was engaged due to the broad and intricate nature of the specific concepts involved. A scoping review of a body of literature can be of particular use when the topic has not yet been extensively reviewed or is of a complex or heterogeneous nature [23]. Hence, studies and reports on the subject of climate change, urban infrastructure and sustainable development were scoped in the review process. A scoping review identifies the key concepts in a research area together with the main sources and types of evidence. The strategy was engaged to identify relevant body of literature, put the current research in context, summarize and present research findings and make necessary recommendations.

4. Urbanization challenges in Africa

In the preceding sections, it was revealed that climate change is one of the negative outcomes of intensified urbanization. Urbanization depicts increase in the number of urban dwellers. Usually, urbanization is as a result of rise in natural birth rate, migration to urban areas and regrouping of rural into urban areas. However, industrialization has transformed the process of urbanization around the world. Consequently, this has redefined the overall perception of urbanization. According to [24], urbanization is the transformation of rural to urban centres via the process of economic enhancement and mechanization. This implies that urbanization is a transition from primarily rural settlement to urban centre. Through proper planning, good governance and efficient management of human, capital and natural wealth, urbanization heralds opportunities for socio-economic growth and development. In addition, it brings employment opportunities and provide platform for sustainable urban development. Urbanization in many developing nations is driven by natural birth and rural–urban migration. This though has been rapid but not supported with investment in infrastructure, capacity development and entrepreneurship. As a result, the process has not resulted in liability for the developing nations. As pointed out in [8], urbanization in Africa has not resulted in economic transformation and prosperity as expected. Illiteracy, poor physical infrastructure and bad governance have hindered the efficient use of productive resources to promote economic growth and development. Current economic momentum in Africa according to [8] is tied to the prosperity in other regions of the world. Despite the surge in urban dwellers in many African countries in the past decades, diverse economic and environmental challenges are still predominant ranging from infrastructure deficit, pollution, congestion, inadequate shelter, and poverty [24]. The haphazard urbanization has caused acute socio-economic, cultural and environmental issues for the developing nations [25, 26, 27].

Nigeria is the most populous nation and one of the rapidly urbanizing nations in sub-Sahara Africa. In Nigeria, as obtained in many African countries, urbanization predates colonization and industrialization in the 19th century, when economic activities such as trading and marketing and administrative expediency played critical roles in the growth and development of urban settlements [28]. In the 20th century, the growth in urban population and spread of urban centres were attributed to distinct economic cum policy developments which include the development of wheeled transportation, classification of settlements by hierarchy, transition to monetized economy, periodic geopolitical restructuring and lately, industrialization process between 1960 and 1975 [29]. In addition, the oil boom in the 70s accelerated infrastructure provision in major urban centres and caused remarkable rural–urban pull in Nigeria. Consequently, urban growth in Nigeria have been swift, spontaneous and uninhibited [30] leading to all sorts of haphazard expansion and infrastructure collapse. Studies [31, 32, 33] have shown that poor planning and intense land use in the inner-city has exacerbated urban problems. Upholding this, [34, 35] averred that the rate and style of development in Nigeria has caused greater harm to the country. The problems as mentioned in the studies include slum proliferation, pollution, violence and crime, environmental degradation, sicknesses, poverty and complex traffic challenge. This situation is similar in most urban centres in Nigeria. For instance, [36] maintained that Ibadan city is beset with diverse problems which are mostly consequences of population growth, macro-scale economic conditions, environmental challenges and weak urban development policy. Consequently from the foregoing, the following points came to the fore:

1. urbanization in developing countries precedes industrialization

2. direct relationship exist between urbanization and urban challenges in developing countries

3. urbanization in developing countries do not necessarily translate to industrialization and economic empowerment of the people

5. Urban infrastructure in Africa

The challenges of urban infrastructure in developing countries are enormous, complex and intertwined. These often range from complete lack to inadequate infrastructure and decay of existing infrastructure. Urban centres across Africa suffer a great deal from infrastructure deficiency and this constitutes formidable hindrance to national economic growth. Across the world, [37] stated that an estimated one billion city dwellers occupy slums. Moreover, around fifty percent of city populace in sub-Saharan countries does not have access to basic sanitation while close to twenty percent lack access to safe water, good drainage and proper waste management [37]. Generally, there is acute shortage of basic infrastructure such as housing, pipe borne water, drainage, sanitation, solid and waste water treatment facilities, transport, rail and road infrastructure, power and health infrastructure [8]. [38] also averred that cities in developing countries are bedeviled with dysfunctional economic system, infrastructure deficiencies, governance failure, weak policies and social breakdown. Despite these, physical expansion or rather, urban sprawl continues uninhibited without commensurate growth in economic activities and infrastructure development thereby culminating in a strong positive correlation with the rise in societal disorderliness and diverse challenges. Unlike the nature of urban growth experienced in advanced countries which was equally driven by population increase among other factors, urban growth in developed countries occur hand in hand with economic growth [39]. In those countries, the issue there is more of maintenance of infrastructure than lack of it. Good governance and strong economic development policies have been put in place to propagate positive urbanization and sustainable physical development. On the contrary, the rising poverty index among the urban populace is an indication of persisting economic conundrum facing most developing countries. For example, the official statistics of Nigeria’s poverty profile revealed that the relative poverty index rose from 54.4% in 2004 to 69% in 2010 [40]. Road network experience heavy traffic almost every day and do not have pedestrian walkway, flood/waste water canal and are poorly maintained [40]. The sub-urban communities usually lack good road networks and are difficult to access during raining season. Pipe borne water is basically non-existent even in city centres and many households cannot afford proper treatment of their solid and waste water. There is the proliferation of slums in urban areas and shortage of housing units. The current state of infrastructure in urban centres of most developing countries is in a dire strait and is again being pummeled by the occasional rage of climate change.

6. Economic growth and infrastructure development in Nigeria

The state of economic growth in Nigeria has been on the decline in the last two to three decades, throwing millions deeper down the pit of poverty. This though, is not unconnected to the population growth, bad leadership, poor policies and endemic corruption. Studies have shown that rapid population growth slows down the growth of per capital income and perpetuate inequalities of income distribution in developing countries [41]. Before the COVID-19 crisis 2020, it was estimated that about 4 in 10 Nigerians were living in poverty and millions more were vulnerable to falling below the poverty line [41]. However, based on the most recent official survey data from the Nigerian National Bureau of Statistics, 39.1 percent of Nigerians lived below the international poverty line of $1.90 per person per day (2011 PPP) in 2018/19 [42]. Yet a further 31.9 percent of Nigerians had consumption levels between $1.90 and $3.20 per person per day, making them vulnerable to falling into extreme poverty when shocks occur. The continued dependence on oil, high population growth rate and limited job creation has hampered the broad-based growth required to tackle poverty. In the same vein, the Nigeria’s energy poverty has been quite appalling [43, 44]. Currently, Nigeria has an approximate population of over 200 million with an average estimated demand of 31.2 GW, and the country has an installed capacity of 14.38 GW with an average supply capacity of 6GW [45]. This implies that the system could only generate 40% of its installed capacity. This acute energy deficit has resulted in economic decline, low standard of living, citizen hardship and widespread poverty. It has scared foreign investors and forced several industries to relocate to countries with much more reliable and stable energy supply. The economic impacts and loss of human capital occasioned by the state of electricity infrastructure in Nigeria, is by all ramifications, far greater than the loss induced by climate change hazards [45]. [46]and [47] concluded that stable and reliable energy supply plays significant role in the economic development, poverty reduction industrial, agriculture, manufacturing, commerce, infrastructure development, employment, and security. In addition, it plays a vital role in ensuring that basic needs and services (food and water, housing, health services, and education) are adequately provided [48]. Furthermore, medical tourism and declining standard of education are another consequence of a broken governance system with severe impact on the citizenry. Medical tourism not only manifest in citizens seeking the best of healthcare in India, Europe and United States, but also in brain drain of health workers, particularly the nurses and medical doctors to countries where their services are adequately remunerated. It was reported in [49] that about N576 billion ($1.2 billion) is lost to medical tourism yearly in Nigeria. Corroborating this, Price Waterhouse Coopers report that Nigerians spend $1 billion annually on medical tourism [49]. [50] listed brain drain, underfunding, dilapidated structures and obsolete equipment, industrial strike, and negative attitude of health professionals as problems facing the Nigerian health sector. These and several other socio-economic problems have contributed more to the economic backwardness and infrastructure disease that plaque the Nigeria nation. These were not as a result of climate change, but only compounded by climate change disasters.

7. Sustainable urban development

Industrialization, urbanization process and man’s anthropogenic activities have increased atmospheric temperature and triggered the phenomenon known as global warming. This in turn has culminated into unpredictable pattern of climate events/disasters in recent times. Climate change and urbanization are both global phenomenon though the impact are largely localized. By implication, climate change can release its disrupting capability on any part of the earth. The advanced nations have contributed more than the developing countries, to the emission of greenhouse gases that cause global warming. The unpredictable patterns of weather events triggered by global warming often unleash tragedies at places without regard to the level of development, type or pattern of settlement. However, the factors that distinguish locations lie in their resilience and recovery capability. Urban resilience has to do with the level of economic and infrastructure development while recovery is contingent on good policy, proper planning and good governance. According to [8], urban population will record 95% growth over the next two decades in developing countries. The report admitted that the dramatic rise in urban population of emerging nations exposes the masses and infrastructure to dangerous environmental consequences. Climate change disasters expose the susceptibility of built-up neighborhoods in developing countries and compound the existing urban challenges. Table 1 presents the global occurrence of natural hazards between 2002 and 2010.

Classification of hazard	Nature of hazard	Frequency of occurrence	Mortality risk	Vulnerable urban areas
Geophysical	Earthquake	228	High	Cities on or near fault lines
	Volcano	53	Low	Cities near volcanoes
Geophysical and hydrological	Tsunami	19	High	Coastal cities
	Mass movement (landslide, rockfall, avalanche, subsidence)	167	Low	—
Hydrological	Flood	1501	Medium	Coastal cities
	Storm surge	25	Low	Coastal cities
Meteorological	Storm and cyclone	899	High	Coastal cities; tropical cities
Climatological	Drought	133	Low	Cities in or near desert & dry areas
	Extreme temperature (heat and cold)	173	Medium – high	Inland cities
	Wildfire	101	Low	—

Table 1.

Global occurrence of natural hazards between 2002 and 2010.

Source: EMDAT, OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database (2011) cited in [8].

The Table showed relevant statistics that reinforce the position of this study. The frequency, mortality rate and affected locations all points to the fact that climate change disasters are usually localized. As shown, about 228 earthquake disasters happened across the globe between 2002 and 2010. Out of this, only seven occurred in Africa [51]. Countries affected include DR Congo in 2002 & 2008; Algeria in 2003; Morocco in 2004; Tanzania in 2005; Mozambique in 2006 and Malawi in 2009. Similarly, the record of volcanic eruptions globally in the 21st century showed that only Democratic Republic of Congo and Eriteria were affected in Africa in the year 2002 and 2011 respectively [52]. Furthermore, the incidence of drought, flooding and heat wave in inner cities and northern parts are being managed with modern technology and infrastructure. Unlike other economic and environmental plagues that has become recurring decimal in Nigeria and many Africa countries.

Amidst the predicament of urbanization and infrastructure deficit, the concept of sustainability has been introduced in the present and future development of man’s physical environment and almost every aspect of human activities. [53] described sustainable development as one that satisfies current needs without jeopardizing that of future generations. In order not to expend limited resources on finding solution to existing urban misnomer, the concept of sustainable development plays an important role. Sustainable development is crucial to re-direct and redefine urbanization in developing countries. Taking a cue from the United Kingdom, the UK political agenda has centered on sustainability agenda in the last three decades [54]. Sustainable development has the remedy to the existing urbanization pattern in developing countries. Sustainable development combines infrastructure development with economic growth and employment opportunities thereby converting population growth to economic advantages. For instance, the UK Government’s sustainable development agenda for residential development is based on four concurrent objectives ([55] cited in [54]):

• Social progress which meets the needs of everyone;

• Effective protection of the environment,

• Prudent use of natural resources, and

• Maintenance of high and stable levels of economic growth and employment

The UK department of Community and Local Government (CLG) recognizes that sustainable community should comprise “…places where people want to live and work, now and in the future, meet the diverse needs of existing and future residents, are sensitive to their environment and contribute to a high quality of life. Such communities are safe and inclusive, well planned, built and run and offer equal opportunity and good services for all” [56].

8. Conclusion and recommendation

Without doubt, climate change is happening as claimed in different studies earlier cited. Nevertheless, the phenomenon is certainly not the most critical problem facing developing countries at this time. Climate change threatens the fabrics of every settlement alike, but of higher significance is the negative urbanization syndrome that characterizes urban growth in developing countries. There is therefore the urgent need to reverse the trend of urbanization in most African countries to embrace positive urbanization. Positive urbanization connotes economic growth that combines infrastructure development with employment opportunities for the rising population. Positive urbanization is the primary intent and result of sustainable development of urban centres. It is an inclusive development strategy that engenders disaster preparedness of neighbourhoods and goes further to absorb and absolve the problems of previous urbanization anomalies. Consequently, positive urbanization, whether driven by natural birth, rural–urban migration, industrialization or combination of all is sine qua non for meaningful sustainable urban development in developing countries. Through this, investment in infrastructure is prioritized, right policies are enacted to empower the masses, conducive atmosphere is created for entrepreneurship to thrive thereby creating employment opportunities. Sustainable urban development engenders urban resilience and improves recovery in case of disaster occurrence. Tackling infrastructure gap in urban centres and promoting sustainable development would go a long way to achieving the United Nations’ sustainable development goals #10, #11 and #13 in developing countries.

Acknowledgments

The authors wish to acknowledge the painstaking scrutiny and constructive contributions of reviewers and editors. The support received from Covenant University Centre for Research, Innovation and Development is equally appreciated.