Assessments on membrane properties and performances based on different analytical instruments/methods.
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",isbn:"978-1-83969-627-5",printIsbn:"978-1-83969-626-8",pdfIsbn:"978-1-83969-628-2",doi:null,price:0,priceEur:0,priceUsd:0,slug:null,numberOfPages:0,isOpenForSubmission:!0,hash:"f6624b8ef72a4a369383a4b719bba2a4",bookSignature:"Dr. Guillermo Huerta-Cuellar",publishedDate:null,coverURL:"https://cdn.intechopen.com/books/images_new/10767.jpg",keywords:"Nonlinear, Materials, Sensors, Applications, Numerical Simulation, Models, Passive-Active Components, Polarization, Birefringence, Lasers, Power, Multistability",numberOfDownloads:null,numberOfWosCitations:0,numberOfCrossrefCitations:null,numberOfDimensionsCitations:null,numberOfTotalCitations:null,isAvailableForWebshopOrdering:!0,dateEndFirstStepPublish:"March 3rd 2021",dateEndSecondStepPublish:"March 31st 2021",dateEndThirdStepPublish:"May 30th 2021",dateEndFourthStepPublish:"August 18th 2021",dateEndFifthStepPublish:"October 17th 2021",remainingDaysToSecondStep:"24 days",secondStepPassed:!1,currentStepOfPublishingProcess:2,editedByType:null,kuFlag:!1,biosketch:'Dr. Huerta-Cuellar is a researcher interested in nonlinear dynamical phenomena about real systems, its theoretical-experimental study through numerical simulations, experimental electronic, and optical systems. He is a member of the National System of Researchers Level I and a member of the consolidated research group "Complex Systems, Optics, and Innovation".',coeditorOneBiosketch:null,coeditorTwoBiosketch:null,coeditorThreeBiosketch:null,coeditorFourBiosketch:null,coeditorFiveBiosketch:null,editors:[{id:"237167",title:"Dr.",name:"Guillermo",middleName:null,surname:"Huerta-Cuellar",slug:"guillermo-huerta-cuellar",fullName:"Guillermo Huerta-Cuellar",profilePictureURL:"https://mts.intechopen.com/storage/users/237167/images/system/237167.jpeg",biography:'Dr. Guillermo Huerta-Cuellar completed his doctoral studies at the Research Center in Optics, and a postdoctoral stay at the Potosino Institute of Scientific and Technological Research. He is currently a Tenure Professor-Researcher at the University of Guadalajara, Mexico, has the recognition of the desirable profile PRODEP in the academic context, is a member of the National System of Researchers Level I, and a member of the consolidated research group "Complex Systems, Optics, and Innovation". Dr. Huerta-Cuellar has more than nine years of experience in teaching undergraduate, master, and doctorate students. He has made research stays in Mexico, Italy, Spain, Russia, and the United States of America, and has published 38 indexed articles, 6 book chapters, one book edition, and 12 congress articles. To this date, he has directed and completed 6 theses at the undergraduate level, two at the master level, and one PhD.',institutionString:"University of Guadalajara",position:null,outsideEditionCount:0,totalCites:0,totalAuthoredChapters:"2",totalChapterViews:"0",totalEditedBooks:"1",institution:{name:"University of Guadalajara",institutionURL:null,country:{name:"Mexico"}}}],coeditorOne:null,coeditorTwo:null,coeditorThree:null,coeditorFour:null,coeditorFive:null,topics:[{id:"11",title:"Engineering",slug:"engineering"}],chapters:null,productType:{id:"1",title:"Edited Volume",chapterContentType:"chapter",authoredCaption:"Edited by"},personalPublishingAssistant:{id:"301331",firstName:"Mia",lastName:"Vulovic",middleName:null,title:"Mrs.",imageUrl:"https://mts.intechopen.com/storage/users/301331/images/8498_n.jpg",email:"mia.v@intechopen.com",biography:"As an Author Service Manager, my responsibilities include monitoring and facilitating all publishing activities for authors and editors. 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Venkateswarlu",coverURL:"https://cdn.intechopen.com/books/images_new/371.jpg",editedByType:"Edited by",editors:[{id:"58592",title:"Dr.",name:"Arun",surname:"Shanker",slug:"arun-shanker",fullName:"Arun Shanker"}],productType:{id:"1",chapterContentType:"chapter",authoredCaption:"Edited by"}},{type:"book",id:"878",title:"Phytochemicals",subtitle:"A Global Perspective of Their Role in Nutrition and Health",isOpenForSubmission:!1,hash:"ec77671f63975ef2d16192897deb6835",slug:"phytochemicals-a-global-perspective-of-their-role-in-nutrition-and-health",bookSignature:"Venketeshwer Rao",coverURL:"https://cdn.intechopen.com/books/images_new/878.jpg",editedByType:"Edited by",editors:[{id:"82663",title:"Dr.",name:"Venketeshwer",surname:"Rao",slug:"venketeshwer-rao",fullName:"Venketeshwer Rao"}],productType:{id:"1",chapterContentType:"chapter",authoredCaption:"Edited by"}},{type:"book",id:"4816",title:"Face Recognition",subtitle:null,isOpenForSubmission:!1,hash:"146063b5359146b7718ea86bad47c8eb",slug:"face_recognition",bookSignature:"Kresimir Delac and Mislav Grgic",coverURL:"https://cdn.intechopen.com/books/images_new/4816.jpg",editedByType:"Edited by",editors:[{id:"528",title:"Dr.",name:"Kresimir",surname:"Delac",slug:"kresimir-delac",fullName:"Kresimir Delac"}],productType:{id:"1",chapterContentType:"chapter",authoredCaption:"Edited by"}},{type:"book",id:"3621",title:"Silver Nanoparticles",subtitle:null,isOpenForSubmission:!1,hash:null,slug:"silver-nanoparticles",bookSignature:"David Pozo Perez",coverURL:"https://cdn.intechopen.com/books/images_new/3621.jpg",editedByType:"Edited by",editors:[{id:"6667",title:"Dr.",name:"David",surname:"Pozo",slug:"david-pozo",fullName:"David Pozo"}],productType:{id:"1",chapterContentType:"chapter",authoredCaption:"Edited by"}}]},chapter:{item:{type:"chapter",id:"61484",title:"Recent Drifts in pH-Sensitive Reverse Osmosis",doi:"10.5772/intechopen.75897",slug:"recent-drifts-in-ph-sensitive-reverse-osmosis",body:'Adsorption is the conventional chemical engineering process which is applied in many industries, including oil refineries, petrochemicals, and water and wastewater treatment. Adsorption is an effective separation strategy for the rejection of a wide range of contaminants, including wastewaters, radioactive waste streams, and separation of radionuclides, but it is not so favorable for the elimination of anions like boron, perchlorates, and nitrates. Adsorption processes would be upgraded by integrating with supplementary processes to obtain hybrid processes with higher removal efficiency [1, 2, 3, 4, 5].
Osmosis is a physical technique that has been widely examined by researchers in different branches of science and engineering. Early researchers considered osmosis through naturally occurring materials, and from the mid of the nineteenth century, extraordinary consideration has been given to osmosis through manufactured materials. Following the advance in reverse osmosis over the most recent couple of decades, particularly for forward osmosis applications, the interests in different engineering purposes of osmosis had been impelled. Osmosis, or as it is at present alluded to as forward osmosis, has modern applications in wastewater treatment, sustenance preparing, and seawater/saline water desalination. Other one of a kind of regions of forward osmosis look into incorporate pressure retarding osmosis for era of power from saline and unused water and implantable osmotic pumps for controlled medication discharge [6, 7, 8].
Recently, membrane technology has gained great attention as a powerful separation technique. Figure 1 shows the main categories of the membrane processes. They are categorized mainly based on the size of the contaminants they can exclude from the input stream. Nanofiltration (NF) is one of the fourth classes of pressure-driven membranes appeared after microfiltration (MF), ultrafiltration (UF), and reverse osmosis (RO). It was first developed in the late 1970s as a variant of reverse osmosis membrane [ROM] with reduced separation efficiency for smaller and fewer charged ions such as sodium and chloride. As the term, NF was not known in the 1970s, such that membrane was initially categorized as either loose/open RO, intermediate RO/UF, or tight UF membrane. The term NF appears to have been first used commercially by the Film-Tec Corporation (now the Dow Chemical Company) in the mid-1980s to describe a new line of membrane products having properties between UF and RO membranes. Owing to the uniqueness and meaningfulness of the word NF, other membrane scientists have begun using it [9, 10, 11].
Classification of membrane processes according to separation type, relative size, and approximate molecular weight rejected materials [12].
Because of late advancements and advances in osmosis innovation, fascinating film operations, including membrane desalination (MD), pressure retarding osmosis (PRO), and reversed electrodialysis (RED), have developed. These operations are equipped for creating spotless and reasonable power from different waste streams, including brackish water and debilitated water, which generally are viewed as natural liabilities. PRO and RED require blending of a high salinity content (e.g., seawater or brackish water and wastewater, separately) with a low salt content to produce power. MD has demonstrated the possibility to produce freshwater and power as an independent process. Reconciliation of MD with PRO or RED upgrades the execution of these procedures and gives a perfect and practical course to create freshwater and vitality [13, 14, 15, 16].
Recently, membrane technology has gained great attention as a powerful separation technique due to prominent advantages over common processes such as high removal efficiency, low energy consumption, fast kinetic, small footprint, and ease of scale up. They are favored for full-scale applications due to normal operating conditions, high productivity, and low energy consumption. They can efficiently eliminate many contaminants including proteins, macromolecules, natural organic matters (NOMs), dyes, dissolved organic matter (DOM), boron, and compounds responsible for odor and color, from aqueous media. However, the recent achievements for pH-responsive membranes require an ion exchange separation in some cases. Figure 2 shows a combination between adsorption and membrane separation. The overall removal efficiency of the hybrid process would be enhanced [17, 18, 19]. Generally, three different procedures for hybridization of membrane systems with adsorption processes may be found:
Adsorption treatment before membrane filtration (pretreatment layout)
Integrated adsorption/membrane processes (IAMPs)
Adsorption treatment after membrane filtration (post-treatment layout)
Membrane/adsorption hybrid process with adsorption pretreatment.
The current chapter deals with the adsorption/membrane integrated systems. As could be seen in Figure 2, some promising advantages of adsorption/membrane integrated systems could be obtained. They include:
Expanding separation efficiency
Diminishing process cost
Diminished membrane fouling in some cases
Straightforwardness of handling and fast control compared to conventional treatments
Lower volume of discharge
Potential request of beneficial biosorbents
Reusability of both membranes and adsorbents
Firm removal kinetics
Low-energy feed requirements versus adsorption columns, NF and RO systems
Low-pressure drop against adsorption columns
Intended for the pre-synthesis of pH-responsive polyacrylamide zirconium titanosilicate (PAm-ZTS) membranes, liquid titanium(IV)chloride (98%), TiCl4, 189.68 [g/mol], 1.728 g/cm3 (20°C), and zirconium(IV)oxychloride octahydrate powder (>99.5%), ZrOCl2.8H2O, 321.26752 [g/mol], 1.91 g/cm3 (20°C), pH value ~1 (50 g/l, H2O, 20°C), were picked up from Merck Chemicals, Darmstadt, Germany, while Sigma-Aldrich tetraethyl orthosilicate (C2H5O)4Si 208.33 [g/mol], 0.93 g/cm3 (20°C), USA was used.
Because of the immense difference between the traditional organic polymers and the corresponding inorganics in their natures and due to strong aggregation of the nanofillers, polymer-inorganic nanocomposite PAm-ZTS membranes cannot be prepared by common schemes such as melt blending and roller mixing. The most frequently secondhand synthesis techniques in the production of nanocomposite membranes can be allocated as three categories [20].
The sol-gel method, the former category secondhand preparation procedure, in which organic monomers, oligomers, or polymers and inorganic nanoparticle precursors are well balanced in solution. The inorganic pioneers were mixed together by gradual addition of tetraethyl orthosilicate, dissolved in equal volumes of bidistilled water and ethyl alcohol with vigorous stirring to zirconium oxychloride octahydrate and titanium tetrachloride solutions, previously dissolved in concentrated hydrochloric acid. The total components are instantly hydrolyzed in an appropriate quantity of water, following to condensation into well-dispersed nanoparticles in the polyacrylamide polymer skeleton with different mole fractions. The reactions’ conditions are moderate; usually room temperature, an ordinary atmospheric pressure, and the concentrations of organic and inorganic components are easy to control over the solution. Additionally, the precursor ingredients, as organic and inorganic ingredients could be dispersed in nanometer level in the membranes, and thus the formed membranes are homogeneous. Other techniques as solution mixing and in situ polymerization are used.
RO polymerized membranes are different in a couple of characteristics such as material, morphology, transport/separation mechanism, and applications [21, 22, 23, 24]. Therefore, a large number of methodologies are required for their characterizations. They can be generally divided into three major tests, that is, methods used for chemical analysis, methods used for physical analysis, and filtration process for assessing membrane separation performance. Depending on the applicable utilization of RO membranes, their stability assessments against chlorination, organic solvent, thermal, and fouling can also be performed to examine their sustainability under specific environments.
Table 1 describes some instrumental methods used in depicting RO membranes with respect to their chemical and physical characteristics, as well as their separation performances and stability. In a wide range, before conducting RO experiments, various techniques can be employed for their characterization in order to obtain a good knowledge of their parameters that are prominent for manufacturing a membrane with the right integration of water flux and solute rejection. For reverse osmosis pH-responsive membranes, zeta potential is well-thought-out as one of the significant parameters to determine the routes and mechanisms that the membranes behave according to its chemical properties.
Zeta potential is a surface charge property for RO membranes at different pH environments. The analysis is particularly significant to help recognize the acid–base features of RO membranes and to predict their separation productivity, as well as to consider the fouling propensity of RO at different water pHs [25, 26, 27]. Based on the Helmholtz-Smoluchowski equation with the Fairbrother and Mastin approach, zeta potential can be persistent from the measurement of the streaming potential using Eq. (1):
where ΔE is the streaming potential, ΔP is the applied pressure, μ is the solution viscosity, κ is the solution conductivity, and
The surface zeta potential of ZTS, PAm, and PAm-ZTS, as pH-Responsive membranes, measured at 25°C, are shown in Figure 3. Taking a horizontal section at the zero point of charge shows that the isoelectric point of ZTS, PAm, and PAm-ZTS was about 4.01, 5.7, and 7.6, respectively; throughout membrane testing, an electric potential is induced when cations and anions enclosed by the electrical double layer are forced to migrate along with the flow tangential to the ROM surface; in consequence, a potential difference could be initiated. Mostly, the streaming potential of the membrane surface is being measured. The typical pH range applied for determining surface zeta potential of a ROF membrane used to fall within pH 2–12, more preferably, between pH 3 and 9. The pH of the background electrolyte (5 mM KCl, 25°C) can be adjusted by the addition of either an acid, 0.1 M HCl (or HNO3), or a suitable base electrolyte, 0.1 M NaOH (or KOH) solution. Owing to the workable irreversible change of membrane surface characteristics, it is highly urged to conduct this investigation using two identical freshly prepared ROMs, that is, one for acid titration (pH 6 down to pH 2) followed by another identical membrane for alkali titration (pH 6 up to pH 12).
Surface zeta potential as a function of pH for pH-responsive membranes made of ZTS, PAm-ZTS, and Pam, measured at 25°C.
PAm-ZTS RO membranes tended to have more positive charge owing to the protonation of the amine functional groups. In contrast, the negative charge of RO membranes at higher pHs can be attributed to the loss of functional groups [28, 29, 30]. Deprotonation of amine functional groups coupled with either dissociation of the carboxylic acid group or sulfonic acid group on the membrane surface may occur. In brief, in the membranes with organic origin, PAm is more negatively charged than that of that made up of ZTS and PAm-ZTS till pH 7 [25, 31, 32]. Besides showing the positive and negative charge values of a membrane, zeta potential profile can also reveal the isoelectric point (IEP) of the RO membrane at which the membrane surface carries no net electrical charge (i.e., neutral).
Depending on the functional groups of RO surface, a highly positively charged RO membrane could also be prepared, in which this membrane displays a positive zeta potential over a wide range of pH values (pH 2–11). The phenomenon is mainly due to the presence of pendant tertiary amine groups in some polymers used to fabricate the membranes. It was also reported to cause the membrane to be positively charged for pH ranging from 3 to 9 [33, 34]. A summary of the surface zeta potential of some RO membranes made of different monomers at two different pH environments is presented in Table 2 [25, 26, 27].
Property assessment | Instrument/method | Property assessment | Instrument/method |
---|---|---|---|
Chemical properties | ATR-FTIR spectroscopy Zeta potential analysis XPS X-ray diffractometry (XRD) Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy | Physical properties | SEM/FESEM TEM Atomic force microscopy (AFM) Contact angle analysis PAS |
Separation performance | Permeability selectivity | Stability test | Chlorination Solvent Thermal Filtration |
Assessments on membrane properties and performances based on different analytical instruments/methods.
Type of NF Membranea | IEP (pH) | ζ (mV) at pH 3 | ζ (mV) at pH 9 |
---|---|---|---|
MPF-34 (Koch Membrane Systems) | 4.5 | ~13 | ~ –34 |
Desal-5DK (GE Osmonic) | 3.9 | ~18 | ~ –50 |
NF 270 (DOW FILMTEC) | 3.2 | ~5 | ~ –75 |
BW30 (DOW FILMTEC) | 3.6 | ~2 | ~ –10 |
NF90 (DOW FILMTEC) | 4.2 | ~14 | ~ –24 |
PIP–TMC–MWCNT NF membrane | 2.6 | ~ –1.2 | ~ –7 |
MPD–TMC NF membrane | 6.0 | ~28 | ~ –11 |
PIP–TMC–GO NF membrane | 5.4 | ~25 | ~ –32 |
PVAm–TMC NF membrane | 6.5 | ~19 | ~ –12 |
AEPPS–PIP–TMC NF membrane | 4.1 | ~1.3 | ~5.6 |
PES–TA NF membraneb | 10.7 | ~32 | ~6 |
PIP–mm-BTEC NF membraneb | – | ~28 | ~4 |
PEG600–NH2–TMC NF membraneb | ~8.9 | ~19 | 0 |
Summary of the surface zeta potential of some NF membranes at different pH environments.
AEPPS—N-aminoethyl piperazine propane sulfonate, MPD—m-phenylenediamine, mm-BTEC—3, 3′, 5, 5′-biphenyl tetraacyl chloride, MWCNT—multi-walled carbon nanotube, GO—graphene oxide, PES–TA—poly (arylene ether sulfone) with pendant tertiary groups, PIP—piperazine, PVAm—polyvinylamine, and TMC—trimesoyl chloride.
These NF membranes are positively charged over a wide pH range.
It should be noted here that besides surface zeta potential measurement, the conventional titration method can also be employed to evaluate the ion exchange capacity of the RO membrane. Any change in the membrane ion exchange capacity can be related to the amount of charged groups that exist on a membrane.
In white-LED illumination focused by AFM, as shown in Figures 4a and 5a, the surface topography of the prepared PAm-ZTS was different as the pH of the treatment was switched from three to eight. Figures 4b and 5b explain the three-dimensional image of the pH-responsive membranes. The surface roughness was depicted by the histograms in Figures 4c and 5c, with a broad distribution from less than 50 nm to more than 290 nm, and has a median value of roughly 130 nm in the case of PAm-ZTS treated at pH = 3, while PAm-ZTS treated at pH = 8 has a spread-out distribution between about 20 and 300 nm with an average value of circa 115 nm.
Surface topography of PAm-ZTS as pH-responsive membrane, measured at 25°C after treatment at pH 3.
Surface topography of PAm-ZTS as pH-responsive membrane, measured at 25°C after treatment at pH 8.
The dissection of Figures 4a–c and 5a–c illuminates the photomicrograph of the cross section in the compact layer morphology of dry/wet phase inversion shear to cast PAm-ZTS asymmetric membrane, in a strained convection dwelling time for 15 s, at pHs 3 and 8, separately. This microstructure had the relatively fit dense skin layer with inconspicuous flaws backed on a highly open nanoporous sublayer containing not only nanovoids but also micro-voids. These were truly similar to those found in the aqueous quenched asymmetric ROMs [35, 36, 37]. The nanovoids did not span the width of the ROM evoking that these nanovoids are provoked by disparate mechanisms. In this case, the creation nanopores were formulated by intrusion of non-solvent through defects in the surface layer during wet phase separation, in a step for membrane reinforcement. Additionally, no surface pores could be observed on the outer surface of RO membrane, even at 5000X magnifications 5000X magnifications. This indicated that the diameters of any surface pores were at least less than 20 A°, which would be helpful to be applied for reverse osmosis separation rather than ultrafiltration or nanofiltration.
The natural water resources contain solids in two forms, suspended and dissolved [16, 38, 39]. Suspended solid-state matters exist in insoluble particulates, debris, seawater microorganisms, silt, or colloids. Dissolved matters are present as ions, preferably as chloride, sodium, calcium, or magnesium. Principally, all desalination plants incorporate two-key treatment steps, sequentially designed to remove suspended and dissolved matters from their sources.
The first step of pretreatment removes the suspended solids from water resources or the naturally occurring soluble solids that may turn into a solid form and precipitates on the ROMs during separation processes. The second step of the RO system separates the dissolved solids from the pretreated saline source water, thereby producing fresh low-salinity water convenient for human utilization agricultural purposes and industrial implementations.
Subsequent pretreatment is designed for the left solids in the source stream; it includes the dissolved minerals. As long as the desalination system is operated in a manner that prevents these minerals from precipitating on the membrane surface, the ROMs could operate and produce freshwater of persistent nature at a high rate deprived of the need to clean these ROMs for long periods.
Notwithstanding pretreatment systems remove most but not all the insoluble solids contained in the saline source water and may not always effectively protect some of the soluble solids from precipitating on the membrane surface, the suspended solids, silt, and natural organic matter (NOM) that remained which may accumulate on ROM surface causing the loss of membrane productivity. In inclusion, saline water contains microorganisms as well as dissolved organics that could serve as food for these microorganisms. Consequently, a biofilm could form and grow on the ROM surface, causing loss of membrane productivity as well.
The protocol of reduction/loss of productivity of ROMs due to agglomeration of suspended solids and NOM, precipitation of dissolved solids, and/or establishment of biofilm on the ROMs surface is known as membrane fouling (MF). Excessive MF is undesirable since it has a negative impact on ROM productivity; it could also result in an increased consumption of energy for salt separation and in deterioration of product water quality.
The classification of the fouling phenomenon depends on the location of the accumulated rejected salts; it can be viewed as [40, 41]:
External or “surface” fouling (EF)
Internal fouling (IF)
EF involves accumulation of rejected salts on the surface of the membranes by three distinct paths:
Construction of mineral deposits (scale)
Construction of cake of rejected solids, particulates, colloids, and other organic and/or inorganic matters
Biofilm construction, i.e., growth of colonies of microorganisms on the surface of the membranes, rapidly attachable by excretion of extracellular materials
Typically, the three mechanisms can occur in any combination at any given time. However, external membrane fouling of ROMs is most frequently caused by biofouling.
IF is a regular loss of membrane productivity due to changes in its chemical structure either by physical compaction or by chemical degradation. Physical deterioration of the membrane may result from long-term application of feed stream at pressures higher than that designed for the ROMs; they are designed to handle 83 bars for sea water reverse osmosis membranes and/or by their continued setup at source water temperatures above 45°C, the limit of safe membrane operation. Chemical deterioration results from continuous exposure to strong oxidants, e.g., chlorines, bromines, ozones, permanganates, peroxides chemicals, and very strong acids, typically pH < 3 and alkali at pH > 12.
The difference between EF and IF is somewhat clear; EF could be completely reversed by chemical cleaning, while IF causes permanent damage of the micropores, resulting in an irreversible changes.
Concentration polarization (CP) phenomenon entails the formation of a boundary double layer along the membrane surface, with salt concentration considerably higher than that of the starting injected solution as revealed in Figure 6 [42, 43, 44]. Cb is the salt concentration within the boundary layer; Cs is the salt concentration at the inner membrane surface, and Cp is the lower salt content of the freshwater on the pass through side.
Boundary layers in a membrane-feed spacer. RO, reverse osmosis.
As indicated in Figure 6, the flow comes to pass in the boundary layers of the feed/concentrate spacers; two different types are encountered: a convective flow of fresh feed solution from the bulk and diffusion flow of repelled drain salts, coming back into the feed flow. In that concern, the semipermeable ROM is designed to give higher rate of convective flow than the diffusion flow, as the salts and particulate solids discarded tend to pile up with highest salt contents on the inner surface of the ROM. The concentration of solid particulates in the boundary layer leads to critical negative significances on the ROM function. They include increased osmotic pressure, increased salt extract, creation of hydraulic opposition of water stream, and Induction of scale and fouling on the ROM.
Concentration polarization cannot be evaded; it can only be reduced before taking any corrective measures; concentration polarization should be quantified. This quantification occurs in three separate consecutive paths. They can be emphasized as balancing the chemical and mass balance equations across the boundary layer, balancing the transport equations over the ROM and determination of solute transport equations within the pores of the ROM. System performance can be predicted by simultaneous solution of all these three equations. Based on the type of concentration polarization, there are two classes of models: an osmotic pressure-controlled model and a gel layer-controlling model.
In this situation, solute particles form a viscous boundary layer concluded on the surfaces of ROMs [45, 46, 47]. Solute concentration increases from the bulk to membrane surface concentration across the mass transfer barrier layer. In this case, the width of the mass transfer boundary layer is constant. At any cross section of the boundary layer for the concentration gradient,
where
Integrating the above equation across the thickness of the mass transfer boundary layer, the governing equation of the flux is obtained as
This equation is well known as the film theory equation. In the above equation,
where,
In the case of flow through the tube with diameter
In addition, for the turbulent flow, it is calculated from Eq. (5). Now, the transport equation in the flow channel, Eq. (4), must be coupled with the transport law through the porous membrane. It is expressed as Darcy’s law:
where
where the constant coefficient is known as the difference between
The real retention is a partition coefficient, or really the solute flux across the membrane considered using the solution diffusion model described earlier; linear relationship is considered between
where
The above equation can be equated with the film theory equation and the following equation results:
From the solution diffusion model, the solute flux is written as
where B is a constant. Combining Eqs. (8) and (10), the following equation is obtained:
The above equation can be simplified as.
where
From the above equation, the membrane surface concentration is obtained as
Putting
Once more a trial-and-error formula for
KKM is considered as another alternate to osmotic pressure one, in which the imperfect retention of the solutes by the RO/NF/UF membranes is incorporated by a reflection coefficient in the equation of the final output flux [50, 51]:
where σ is the reflection coefficient. Using
Turning back to the film theory, the concentration on the ROM surface could be rewritten by
Combining Eqs. (15) and (17), the following equation is obtained:
By means of Eq. (19),
The solute transports across the RO/NF/UF membranes are given by adopting both the convective transport and the diffusive transport of the solutes across the voids of the membranes and writing the corresponding flux equation as [52, 53, 54]
where
By combining Eqs. (4) and (19), we get
From the mentioned equations between (16) and (21) in
The MSDM cons are described by the hypotheses that the mass transfer boundary layer is fully developed, whereas the corresponding entrance length required is substantial. Furthermore, physical properties such as diffusivity and viscosity considerably do not vary with concentration, while mass transfer coefficients are calculated from heat-mass transfer analogies applicable for impervious conduits.
On the other hand, the film theory-based osmotic pressure model presents a simple and quick method for quantifying system performance. In order to overcome these cons, the two-dimensional mass transfer boundary layer equation can be solved, and/or detailed pore flow models can be incorporated. Many studies are available including these intricacies of the model.
In this approximation, the gels of concentrated solutes are deposited over the ROM surface with certain thickness in a uniformly fixed distribution of the solutes, and an outer mass transfer boundary film is formed [52, 55]. In that, the film theory, in which the solute concentration extends from feed concentration and gel concentration undergoing drastic variation in viscosity, diffusivity, and density, can be applied to obtain the equation of permeate flux as
The pH-sensitive characteristics of PAm-ZTS membrane were achieved upon static adsorption modes of Ce4+, Pr3+, Sm3+, Gd3+, Dy3+, and Ho3+ using both Langmuir and Freundlich Isotherms, as well as the reverse osmosis dynamic mode.
The utilization of Langmuir and Freundlich isotherms to depict the complexation process of binding metal ions in the polymer has previously been investigated using the washing and enrichment methods of the PEUF process [22, 24]. However, the different metal ions were subjected directly to reverse osmosis in the absence of any binding polymers. In this case, the assumption that the concentration of metal ions in the permeates, Cpi, symbolizes the concentration of metal that is free in the solution, Yi, is prepared.
The Langmuir isotherm equation is given by [20, 56, 57]
where: Q is the amount of metal ion, whereas Qmax is the maximum capacity of polymer (mg metal/g membrane).
Yi is the metal free in solution (mg/l).
KL is the Langmuir equilibrium constant (mg/l).
Langmuir equation gives a linear form:
The Freundlich isotherm equation is given by
where Q is the amount of metal ion, KF is the Freundlich equilibrium constant (mg1−n g−1ln), Yi is the metal free in solution (mg/l), and n is a constant. Freundlich equation gives a linear form [58, 59, 60, 61, 62]:
Figure 7 displays the linear regression fits of the Langmuir isotherm to the data obtained for particular metal ions in solution with PAm at pH 3 upon PAm-ZTS surface. The Langmuir isotherm fitted the test data very well (R2 values >0.98). Figure 8 exhibits the fits of the experimental data to the Freundlich isotherm at the same pH. Although this model fits the data intelligently well, the fit was not as good as the Langmuir model. This issue discloses that the Langmuir isotherm offers a better description of the binding of metal ions to PAm-ZTS than the Freundlich isotherm [63, 64, 65, 66]. However, for all cases, the Qmax asset value was found in the following order [20]:
Langmuir isotherm model fits to the experimental data for binding of single metal ions at pH 3.
Freundlich isotherm model fits to the experimental data for binding of single metal ions at pH 3.
Ce4+ > Pr3+ > Sm3+ > Gd3+ > Dy3+ > Ho3+
These rates can be applicable when considering the retention of the metal ions during the RO process.
Solute rejections of PAm-ZTS membrane under environmental pH values of 3 and 8 are performed to further evaluate the pH-responsive gating function of membrane. The feed solution is prepared by dissolving Ce4+, Pr3+, Sm3+, Gd3+, Dy3+, and Ho3+ in pH buffer with different concentrations mg/l, and the buffers of pH 3 or pH 8 is freshly prepared by adding HCl or NaOH in DI water. The experimental conditions of filtration tests are the same usually used for hydraulic permeability measurements at 0.1 MPa. All the Ce4+, Pr3+, Sm3+, Gd3+, Dy3+, and Ho3+ solutions are used as feed solution only within 48 h after preparation. In the filtration test, membranes are conditioned with buffers of pH 3 and pH 8 firstly [67, 68].
Then the permeability of Ce4+, Pr3+, Sm3+, Gd3+, Dy3+, and Ho3+ solutions is monitored until the stabilization of membrane is reached and the filtrate is collected. Concentrations of Ce4+, Pr3+, Sm3+, Gd3+, Dy3+, and Ho3+ ions in the filtrate solution are measured with Buck Scientific 210 VGP Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometer. The function of examination of the permeate samples for the relevant metal allows the calculation of the observed retention value (Ri) of each metal ion using [9, 42]
where Cpi is the concentration of metal ion, i in the pass through, and Cfi is the concentration of metal ion, i in the primary feed solution.
Figures 9 and 10 show the rejection coefficient values of single metal ions for different feed metal concentrations using RO Mode at pH ~3 and ~8, respectively. Generally, a high rejection asset value of Ce4+, Pr3+, Sm3+, Gd3+, Dy3+, and Ho3+ was observed at low concentrations. Increasing the metal ion content in the feed solution results in a marked decrease in the metal ion rejection, which may be attributed to the closed gates of the membrane. As pH-responsive membrane, PAm-ZTS showed differential rejections according to the pH conditioned. At pH 3, Gd3+ and Ce4+ were subjected to highest rejection, while Sm3+ and Ho3+ were rejected with the weakest rates; their rejection coefficients have lowered to less than ten percent at higher concentrations. On the other hand, Pr3+ showed the greatest rejection, while Sm3+ indicated the quietest rejection. At despicable concentrations, most of the ions are highly rejected at disgusting concentrations that reach about eighty percent. These asset values drop to about thirty to forty percent at higher concentrations. The variation of the rejection as a function of pH in pH-responsive membranes may be explained by the variation of PAm-ZTS conformation because of pH-dependent dissociation of amide hydroxyl. In addition, protonation of amide groups under acidic conditions could be observed [68, 69].
Rejection values of single metal ions at pH 3 for different feed metal concentrations using RO Mode.
Rejection values of single metal ions at pH 8 for different feed metal concentrations using RO Mode.
To verify the reversibility and durability of pH-responsive open and closed gating function of the membrane pores, the fluxes of membranes are tested with alternate change of buffer pH between 8 and 3, repeatedly. To characterize the pH-responsive performance, a special coefficient, called pH-responsive coefficient K, is defined as
where the numerator and denominator represent the transmembrane fluxes at pH 3 and pH 8, respectively. The membrane showed fast response as a function of pH for its potential applications; the fluxes at pH 8 are around 375 l/(m2 h), while, with changing the feed to pH 3 buffer, the fluxes across the membrane decreased quickly to around 123 l/(m2 h) within the first recording period, about 40 s. Therefore, the pH-responsive coefficient was about 0.328, indicating a good response of the membrane at the mentioned pHs. This value is mainly a fraction, which contradicts to others found in literature, as other membranes showed a reversed behavior at the same tested pHs [67].
A pH-responsive smart PAm-ZTS was prepared by prepared via reactions between zirconium titanosilicate and polyacrylamide under different preparation conditions for testing some lanthanide ions, namely, Ce4+, Pr3+, Sm3+, Gd3+, Dy3+, and Ho3+ for their active rejection. The pH response of the membrane was demonstrated using static adsorption and hydraulic permeation results. The water flux of the PAm-ZTS membrane decreased with the decreasing pH value, with the most drastic decrease occurring between pHs 4 and 7, and was both reversible and durable with interchanging pHs between 3 and 8. At pH 3, the membrane pores were in a closed state due to the extended conformation of the amide chains on the pore surfaces. In contrast, at pH 8, the membrane pores were in non-closed state because of the collapsed conformation of the amide chains. The outcomes in this paper afford clear indication to the availability of manufacture and production of pH-responsive composite membranes and can inspire further works on design and preparation of stimuli-responsive membranes through addition of molecularly designed macromolecular additives synthesized by controlled polymerization.
Risk is defined in terms of uncertain events which may have positive or negative effect on the project objectives. Risks include circumstances or situations, the existence or occurrence of which, in all reasonable foresight, results in an adverse impact on any aspect of the implementation of the project. Various definitions of risks are presented in Table 1.
Sl. no | Source | Definition |
---|---|---|
1 | Project Management Institute [10] | An uncertain event or a condition that if it occurs has a positive or negative effect on project objectives |
2 | Institute of Risk Management [7] | The combination of a probability of an event and its consequences |
3 | Association of Project Management Body of Knowledge [1] | Project Risk is an uncertain event or condition, that, if it occurs, has a positive/negative effect on project objectives. A risk has a cause and if it occurs, a consequence. |
4 | British Standard BS IEC 62198:2001 | Combination of probability of an event occurring and its consequences on project objectives |
5 | A probability or threat of damage, injury, liability, loss, or any other negative occurrence that is caused by external or internal vulnerabilities and that may be avoided through preemptive action. | |
6 | Fundamentals of Risk Management [9] | “A chance or possibility of danger, loss, injury or other adverse consequences” and the definition of risk is “exposed to danger.” However, taking risk can also result in positive outcome. A third possibility is risk related to uncertainty of outcome. |
7 | Adams [8] | Risk is the probability “that a particular adverse event occurs during a stated period of time, or results from a particular challenge.” |
8 | Philosophy of Risk [3] | Risk has been interpreted as Risk = hazard × exposure where Hazard is defined as the way in which a thing or situation can cause harm and exposure as the extent to which the likely recipient of the harm can be influenced by the hazard |
Definitions of risk.
Classification and definition of risks is furnished in Table 2.
Risk | Definitions |
---|---|
Pure risk | A risk which has chance of loss or no loss. Example. A building may get affected by fire or not. These are best covered by insurance |
Speculative risk | Involves chance of gain/loss. Example. A builder may take a risk by promoting a new venture depending upon the prevailing conditions in the vicinity of proposed project, but it may bring him gain/loss. |
Fundamental risk | These are external to a project and which, if they materialise, would be on a large scale and cannot be prevented. These risks are associated with major natural, economic, political or social changes and generate large scale losses. Examples are: Floods, earthquakes, fluctuation of exchange rates, etc. This risk may or may not be insurable. |
Particular risk | These are project specific risks and are identified within the parameters of a project and can be controlled during the implementation of a project, e.g. quality risks, safety risks, legal risks, etc. |
Classification of risks and their definitions.
Source: Project Risk Management, D Van Well-Stam et al., Kogan Page Publications, 2003.
Risk management is a planned and a structured process aimed at helping the project team make the right decision at the right time to identify, classify, quantify the risks and then to manage and control them. The aim is to ensure the best value for the project in terms of cost, time and quality by balancing the input to manage the risks with the benefits from such act. It is just a cost benefit analysis.
Risk management is a continuous process which is to be implemented in any project from inception to completion. However, in order to realise its full potential, risk management should be implemented at the earliest stage of a project, i.e. feasibility design and construction. Risk is an uncertain event or condition that, if occurs, has a positive or negative effect on a project’s objectives. Components of risk are the probability of the occurrence of an event and the impact of the occurrence of that event. There are many sources of uncertainty in construction projects, which include the performance of construction parties, resources availability, contractual relations, etc. because of which, construction projects face problems that cause delay in the project completion time. Success of a project is measured by its ability to get completed within the budgeted cost and time. These goals are interrelated where each parameter has an impact when other parameters get affected. An accurate cost estimating and scheduling should be performed in order to meet the overall budget and time deadline of a project. As such, risk management becomes an integral part of construction management which intends to identify and manage potential and unforeseen risks during the period of implementation of the project; hence, the necessity of risk management [5].
Definitions of risk management are presented in Table 3.
Sl. no | Definition of risk management |
---|---|
1 | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_management Risk Management is the identification, evaluation, and prioritization of risks followed by coordinated and an economical application of resources to minimise, monitor, and control the probability or impact of unfortunate events [6] or to maximize the realization of opportunities. |
2 | Nadeem Ehsan et al., 2012 Risk Management in a project involves the identification of influencing factors which could have negative impact on the the cost, schedule and quality objectives of the project and quantification of impact of potential risk and implementation of mitigation measures to minimise the potential impact of risk |
3 | Bahamid et al., 2017 Risk Management is defined as organized and comprehensive method tailored towards “ organizing”, “identifying” and “responding” to risk factors in order to achieve project goals. |
4 | www.stakeholdermap.com/risk/risk-management-construction Risk Management in construction consists of planning, monitoring and implemeting the measures needed to prevent exposure to risk. To do this, it is necessary to identify the hazards, assess the extent of risks, provision of measures to control the risks and to manage residual risk |
5 | www.vp-projects.kau.edu.sa Risk management is a systematic method of identifying, analysing, treating and monitoring the risks that are all involved in any activity/ process and is a systematic method that minimises the risks which may be an impediment to attainment of objectives |
6 | Cleden [4] Risk is exposure to the consequences of uncertainty. In a project context, it is the chance of something happening that will have an impact upon objectives. It includes the possibility of loss or gain, or variation from a desired or planned outcome, as a consequence of the uncertainty associated with following a particular course of action. Risk thus has two elements: the likelihood or probability of something happening, and the consequences or impacts if it does. |
7 | Project Risk Management, D Vanwell-Stam, Kogan Page India publications, 2004 The entire set of activities and measures that are aimed at dealing with risks in order to maintain control over a project |
8 | www.gpmfirst.com/risk.management-construction Risk Management is a means of dealing with uncertainty – identifying sources of uncertainty and the risks associated with them, and then managing those risks such that negative outcomes are minimized (or avoided altogether), and any positive outcomes are capitalised upon. |
9 | Risk Management in Construction Projects by NICMAR [2] Risk Management is the planned and structured process of bringing the project team make the right decisions at the right time by identifying, classifying and quantifying the risks and then for managing and controlling them, |
10 | Dr Patrick et al., 2006 retrieved from feaweb.aub.edu.lb Risk Management is “a systematic way of looking at areas of risk and consciously determining how each should be treated. It is a management tool that aims at identifying sources of risk and uncertainty, determining their impact, and developing appropriate management responses” |
11 | http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/definition/risk-management Risk Management refers to the practice of identifying potential risks in advance, analysing them and taking precautionary steps to reduce/curb the risk. |
Definitions of risk management.
Construction projects are extremely complex and fraught with uncertainty. Risk and uncertainty can potentially have damaging consequences for the construction projects. Hence, risk analysis and risk management has come to be a major feature of the project management in construction projects. Construction projects are unique, inherently complex, dynamic and risks emanate from multiple sources. The interests of individuals and organisations who are actively involved in a construction project may be positively or negatively affected depending upon the course which a project takes from concept to completion. Multiple stakeholders with varied experience and skills have different expectations and interests in the project which creates problems for smooth execution of the project. Risk management is a concept which many construction companies have never thought of, despite the fact that, the risks can be better controlled if they are identified in the first instance and a well-structured mitigation mechanism is in place. Risk management helps the key project participants namely the client, contractor/developer, consultant and supplier to meet their commitments and to minimise negative impacts on construction project performance in relation to cost, time and quality objectives. Success of a construction project is associated with three aspects of time, cost and quality outcomes.
Successful commissioning of any project, necessarily calls for sound planning on various fronts and getting the project executed in a competent manner. An organisation executing a project would have to reckon with the various risks to which the project may be exposed to and these have to be managed effectively. The construction industry, being vulnerable is potentially more prone to risks and uncertainties than any other industry. The process of taking a project from the conceptual stage to its final completion and putting into operation is quite complex and entails painstaking process at every stage. Construction industry is highly fragmented in that each of its participants—designers, constructors, planners, suppliers, etc. can be highly skilled in their own area and yet there is no clear perspective as to how all the players can come on the same platform for achieving the objectives.
Construction industry is also dependent on quality of its people rather than technology. The increasing technological complexity and more complex interdependencies and perpetual shortage of resources namely materials, equipment, technical/supervisory staff, finance, etc. calls for a comprehensive risk management framework which will insulate the risks of the participants to a great extent.
Given the nature of the construction sector, risk management is an extremely important process. It is most widely used in such of those projects where susceptibility to risks is very high and is characterised by planning, monitoring and controlling the risks in a more structured and formal manner. The most efficient method of identifying the risks is to study a project of similar size which was executed in the recent past which gives an insight into the failure/success of the project. In order to be sure that the project objectives are met, the portfolio of risks associated with all stakeholders should be considered across the project life cycle (PLC). In later stages, risk management when applied systemically helps to control those critical elements which can negatively impact project performance. Keeping track of identified threats will result in early warnings to the project manager if any of the objectives, time, cost or quality, are not being met. There are a plethora of risks which are to be identified in the construction industry and which can be faced in each construction project at any point of time regardless of its size and scope. Frequent change in scope is one of the major risks in any construction project. If revised scope or design is implemented, it can have effect in the form of additional resources of time and cost. Early project completion may be as troublesome as delays in a schedule. Completing too early which may be a result of insufficient planning or design problems can lead to a low quality of final product and increased overall cost. Thus it is important to keep a balance in the concept of time–cost-quality trade-off, which more widely is becoming an important issue for the construction sector. Risks may vary depending on the project scope, types and are to be treated accordingly.
Risk management process is shown in Figure 1.
Risk management process.
Risk identification, the first step in the risk management process is usually informal and is performed in various ways, depending on the organisation and the project team. Identification of risks relies mostly on past experience and study of similar executed projects. This being a preliminary stage, a combination of tools and techniques may be used to identify the risks in any project. Here are many methods that fit specific types of challenges and projects especially at identification stage. Risks and threats may be difficult to eliminate, but when they have been identified, it becomes easy to take actions and have control over them. Risk management will be more effective if the source of the risks have been identified and allocated before any problems occur. The main purpose of risk management is that the stakeholders should prepare for potential problems that can occur unexpectedly during the course of a project. Risk management will not only facilitate anticipating problems in advance, but also preparing oneself for the potential problems that may occur unexpectedly. Handling potential threats is not only a way to minimise the losses within a project, but also a way to transform risks into opportunities which can lead to economic and financial profitability. The purpose of identifying risks is to obtain a list of risks which has got the potential to have a cascading effect on the progress of project and different techniques are applied for managing/mitigating the same. In order to find all potential risks which might impact a specific project, different techniques are applied. The project team should use a method they are familiar with so that the exercise will be effective. Effective identification of risks is the first step to a successful risk management.
Parameter | Methodology |
---|---|
Documentation reviews | A structured review of project documentation, study of history of execution of similar projects and quality of plans as well as the consistency between those plans and project requirements/ assumptions would be an indicator of risks in the project |
Information gathering techniques |
|
Identification of risks: tools and techniques.
Tools and techniques for risk identification are presented in Table 4.
Various risks that confront a construction industry are not limited to and include financial, economical, political, legal environmental, technical, contractual, planning/scheduling, design, quality operational labour, stakeholder safety and security, logistics and construction.
Risk assessment is the second stage in the risk management process where collated data is analysed for potential risks. Risk assessment is described as short listing of risks starting from low impact highest impact on the project, out of all threats mentioned in the identification phase. Risk assessment consists of qualitative risk assessment and qualitative risk assessment.
This involves registration of identified risks in a formal manner. A risk register is used for formalising this process which is not limited to the following
Classification and reference
Description of the risk
Relationship of the risk to other risks
Potential impact
Likelihood of occurrence
Risk response/mitigation strategy
Allocation of risks to stakeholders.
Classification is an aid to identifying the source of risk. Examples are furnished below (Table 5).
Risk | Classification |
---|---|
Environmental | Site conditions, health and safety issues at site |
Contractual | Client, contractor, sub-contractor, etc. |
Design | Planning permission, preliminary and detailed design, etc. |
Classification of risk and its reference.
Referencing refers to unique reference number given for each of the identified risks.
This involves giving a brief description of the risk. The description must be unique in order to avoid confusion with similar risks in the risk management process.
In any project, it is extremely rare that any activity is independent of activities which occurs concurrently or consequentially and this will always be the case for risks also for successful implementation of risk management,
Impact of risk on a project is measured in terms of cost and quality. Since this assessment is done at an early stage of the project, information may not be available to accurately predict the impact of risk on the project. At this stage, the risk is classified suitably and accordingly high impact risks are to be given more fundamental consideration than that of medium/low/negligible risks by ranking the impact of risks on a scale of 1 (low) to 10 (high).
Based on intuition and experience, the likelihood of occurrence (P) of risks and its impact (I) is to be given on a suitable scale ex. 1–10 (1 refers to low probability and 10 refers to high probability). The risk factor for each of the identified risks is calculated by the formula RF = P + I – (P*I) (where the values of P and I are brought on a scale of 0–1 by dividing the values with 10).
This action is taken to reduce, eradicate or to avoid the identified risks. The most common among the risk mitigation methods are risk avoidance, risk transfer, risk reduction and risk sharing. Based on the competency in handling the risks, the identified risks are allocated to respective stakeholders who will be responsible for addressing those risks.
This risk assessment is normally taken for such of those risks which are classified are high/critical/unmanageable as per the qualitative risk assessment. The purpose of this assessment is to find the amount of contingency to be inserted in the estimate for the risks undergoing this assessment so that in case the risks occur, there would be sufficient budgeted amount to overcome the extra expenditure.
Quantitative methods need a lot of analysis to be performed. This analysis should be weighed against the effort and outcomes from the chosen method. Complex and larger projects require more in depth analysis as compared to projects which are small in size. The purpose of carrying out quantitative analysis is to estimate the impact of a risk in a project in terms of scope, time, cost and quality. The suitability of this analysis is more for medium and large projects as these projects have more complex risks as compared to smaller projects.
The detailed quantitative assessment of risk is the one which is identified as risk analysis. In undertaking quantitative assessment, the potential impact of risks in terms of time, cost and quality is quantified. While preparing the estimate, it is generally split into two distinct elements, namely (1) base estimate of those items which are known and a degree of certainty exists and (2) contingency allowance for all uncertain elements of a project. Historically, contingencies have been calculated on a rule of thumb basis varying from 5 to 10% on risk-free base estimate. By adopting risk management approach, contingencies are set up to reflect realistically the risks that are inherent in the project. When used correctly, contingency allowances ensure that expenditure against risks is controlled. The methods for quantitative risk assessment are described below.
The Monte Carlo method is based on statistics which are used in a simulation to assess the risks. This is a statistical technique whereby randomly generated data is used within predetermined parameters and produce realistic project outcomes. The overall project outcome is predicted by randomly simulating a combination of values for each risk and repeating the calculation a number of times and all outcomes are recorded. After completing the simulations required, the average is drawn from all of the outcomes, which will constitute the forecast for the risk. It is important to realise that parameters and appropriate distribution within which the random data is simulated is itself a series of subjective inputs. Accurate and realistic project outcomes will not be generated if inaccurate parameters are set. Different scenarios are generated by simulation are used for forecasting, estimations and risk analysis. Data from already executed projects is normally collected for simulation purpose. The data for variables is presented in terms of pessimistic, most likely and optimistic scenarios depending upon the risks encountered, i.e. pessimistic value means lot of risks and optimistic value means least risks. The result from this method is a probability of a risk to occur is often expressed as percentage. The most common way of performing the Monte Carlo simulation is to use the program Risk Simulator Palisade Software, where more efficient simulations can be performed.
This is a method used to demonstrate the variable impact on the whole caused by a change in one or more element or risk. It is used to test the robustness of choices made where rankings have been established, particularly when those rankings are considered to be marginal. It can identify the point where variation in one parameter will affect decision making. A typical method for carrying out sensitivity analysis is by use of a spider diagram which shows the areas in the project which are the most critical and sensitive The higher the level of uncertainty a specific risk has, the more sensitive it is concerning the objectives. In other words, the risk events which are the most critical to the project are the most sensitive and appropriate action needs to be taken (Heldman, 2005). Disadvantage with this analysis is that the variables are considered separately, which means that there is no connection between them (Perry, 1986 and Smith et al.. 2006). The method requires a project model in order to be analysed with computer software. According to Smith et al. (2006), the project stands to be benefited if the analysis is carried out in the initial phases of a project in order to focus on critical areas during the execution of the project.
Decision tree analysis is commonly used when there is sequence of interrelated possible courses of action and future outcomes in terms of time and cost. This method of analysis is commonly used when certain risks have an exceptionally high impact on the two main project objectives, i.e. time and cost. Where probabilities and values of potential outcomes are known or can be estimated, they are used for quantification to provide a more informed basis for decision making. Each decision process expected value (EV) which forms the basis for decision making process. A sample problem on decision tree is given in Table 6.
Method | Design time (months) | Construction period in months and probabilities | Total time (construction period + design time) (months) |
---|---|---|---|
Construction management | 2 | 15 (0.6) = 9 18(0.4) = 7.2 Total 16.2 months | 18.2 |
Design and construct | 3 | 12(0.3) = 3.6 Total = 13.8 months 14(0.5) = 7 16(0.2) = 3.2 | 16.8 |
Traditional method | 8 | 10(0.3) = 3 12(0.7) = 8.4 Total 11.4 months | 19.4 |
Problem on decision tree.
This can be depicted in the form of decision trees and the expected value (EV) in terms of time for each of the three scenarios is furnished. The least of this i.e. construction management will be preferred since it consumes less time.
Multiple estimating using risk analysis (MERA) attempts to provide a range of estimates. These are presented as risk free base estimate, average risk estimate (ARE) and maximum likely risk estimate (MLRE). ARE is the sum of risk free base estimate and average risk allowance and MLRE is the sum of ARE and maximum risk allowance.
MERA attempts to finds a level i.e. the estimate that has a 50% chance of being successful. This is known as average risk estimate (ARE) which is found out by multiplying the average allowance with average probability of occurrence. Maximum risk allowance is found out by multiplying the maximum allowance with maximum probability of occurrence of that risk. This is added to ARE to get MLRE which is the estimate that has 90% chance of not being exceeded.
The output of quantitative risk assessment is presented in Table 7.
Parameter | Outputs |
---|---|
Probabilistic Analysis of project | Estimates are made of potential project schedule and cost outcomes listing the possible completion dates and costs with their confidence levels. This output is described as cumulative distribution and also risk tolerances for permitting quantification of cost and time contingency reserves. Contingency reserves bring the risk of overshooting stated project objectives to acceptable levels to the organisation |
Prioritised list of quantified risks | This list includes risks that pose the greatest threat or present the greatest opportunity in a project. These risks also have the greatest impact on cost contingency |
Trends in quantitative risk analysis results | As the risk analysis is repeated, a trend becomes apparent that leads to conclusions affecting risk responses, Historical information on project’s schedule, cost, quality and performance reflects new insights gained through quantitative process. This takes the form of quantitative risk analysis report. |
Quantitative risk assessment: outputs.
The risk response will be in the form of mitigation by adopting necessary strategies in respect of positive and negative risks which is furnished below (Tables 8–10).
Risk mitigation strategy | Description |
---|---|
Risk avoidance | Risk avoidance involves changing the project management plan to eliminate the threat entirely. The project manager may isolate the project objectives that are in jeopardy. Examples: (a) Extending the schedule of an activity; (b) Changing the strategy or reducing the scope of work; (c) Changes in clauses of contract regarding abnormal price rise of any material or dealing with extra quantum of work. |
Risk transfer | Risk transfer requires shifting some or all of the negative impact of a threat along with ownership of the response to a third party. Examples are
|
Risk reduction | Risk reduction implies reduction in the probability and consequence of an adverse risk event to be within acceptable threshold limits. Conducting detailed tests or choosing a more stable supplier are some examples. Risk reduction is adopted where the resultant increase in costs is less than the potential loss that could be caused by the risk being mitigated. Examples are:
|
Risk acceptance | This strategy is adopted when it is not possible to eliminate all risks from a project. This strategy indicated that the project team had decided not to change the project management plan or is unable to identify any other suitable response strategy. This requires no action except to document the strategy leaving the project team to deal with risks as they occur |
Strategies for mitigating negative risks.
Risk mitigation strategy | Description |
---|---|
Exploit | This strategy is selected for risks with positive impacts where the organisation wishes to ensure that the opportunity is realised. This strategy seeks to eliminate the uncertainty associated with a particular risk by ensuring that the opportunity is exploited. Examples are assigning the most talented resources of the organisation to the project to reduce the time for completion or providing at a lower cost than originally planned |
Share | Sharing a positive risk involves allocating some or all of the ownership of the opportunity to a third party capable of capturing the opportunity for the benefit of the project. Risk sharing, joint ventures, etc. are examples of this strategy |
Enhance | This strategy is used to enhance the positive impact of an opportunity. Identifying and maximising key drivers of risks may increase their probability of occurrence. Examples are adding more resources to an activity for completing it before scheduled time |
Accept | Accepting an opportunity means willing to take advantage if it comes along, but not pursuing it actively. |
Contingent response strategies | Some responses are designed for implementation only if certain events occur. It is appropriate for the project team to prepare a contingency response plan that will be executed under certain predefined conditions if there will be sufficient warning to implement the plan |
Expert judgement | Expert judgement is from knowledgeable individuals pertaining to the actions to be taken on a specific and a defined risk. |
Risk mitigation strategies for positive risks/opportunities.
Source: Project Risk Management, Van Well Stam et al. 2008.
Sl. No | Contents |
---|---|
1 | Identified risk. Their descriptions, areas of project affected, their causes and how they affect project objectives |
2 | Risk owners and assigned responsibilities |
3 | Prioritised list of project risks based on the outputs from quantitative analysis reports |
4 | Agreed upon response strategies and specific actions taken to implement the strategy |
5 | Triggers, symptoms and warning signs of risks occurrence |
6 | Fallback plans as a reaction to a risk that has occurred and primary response proved to be inadequate |
7 | Contingency reserves to be calculated based on quantitative risk analysis of the project and the threshold risk of the organisation. |
Contents of risk response: outputs.
Inputs to monitoring and controlling of risks are presented in Table 11.
Tools and Techniques for monitoring and controlling risks are furnished in Table 12.
Parameter | Inputs |
---|---|
Risk register | The key inputs to risk register includes identified risks and owners of risk, agreed upon risk responses, specific actions to be implemented, symptoms/warning signs of any risk, residual/secondary risks, list of low priority risks and contingency measures in terms of time/cost |
Risk management plan | The risk management plan should contain risk tolerances, assignment of manpower including bearer of risk, time and other resources to project risk management |
Work performance information | Work performance information related to various performance results is to be quantified in terms of deliverable status, schedule progress and costs incurred. |
Performance reports | Performance reports will be analysed for variance analysis, earned value data and forecasting the likely date of completion of project |
Parameter | Explanation |
---|---|
Risk reassessment | Monitoring and controlling of risks will result in identification of new risks, reassessment of current risks and closing of risks that are not a threat to project. Project risk assessment is to be performed regularly. The frequency and depth of assessment depends on how the project progresses relative to the objectives. |
Risk audits | The purpose of risk audits is to examine and document the effectiveness of risk responses in dealing with identified risks and their root causes as well as effectiveness of the risk management process meetings. A separate risk audit meeting may be held or it may be included in routine project review meetings. |
Earned value analysis | Variance analysis is done by comparing the planned results with actual. Trends in execution of a project are reviewed using performance information and based on earned value analysis, deviation from cost and schedule targets is determined which may indicate potential impact of threat/opportunities. |
Technical performance measurement | This measures technical accomplishments during project execution and will help in forecasting degree of success in achieving the project scope and it may expose the degree of technical risk faced by the project |
Reserve analysis | This compares the amount of contingency reserves available at any time to the amount of risk remaining in the project to determine whether the reserves are adequate |
Status meetings | Project risk management should be an agenda item at all status review meetings. The amount of time for any item will depend on risks that have been identified, their priority and difficulty of response. Frequent discussions about risk make it more likely that concerned stakeholders will identify risks and opportunities. |
To maximise the efficiency of risk management, the risk management process should be continuously developed during the entire project.
The benefits from risk management finally go to the stakeholders involved. A clear understanding and awareness of potential risks in the project contributes to better management of risks by suitable mitigation techniques. Another benefit of working with risk management is increased level of control over the whole project and more efficient problem solving processes which can be supported on a more genuine basis
Risk management when conducted effectively, reduce sudden surprises. The advantage with risk management is that the stakeholders are aware as to the risk that they have to bear among all the risks that have been identified in a project and can prepare themselves accordingly, should any eventuality occur. No doubt, this formal exercise may translate into extra cost for an activity, but if taken in holistic manner, the benefits will far outweigh the costs. This has another advantage in that there is no passing of buck as risks are either shared/retained or transferred depending upon the ability of the stakeholder to handle the risk. The three approaches to risk management are normally risk natural firm which does not invest much in risk management but is still aware of important risk, risk averse firm where no investments are made and the last one is risk seeker wherein the organisation is prepared to face all risks and is often called gambler. The outcome of the objectives of project naturally depends upon the path adopted by the firms in their approach to risk management.
The fact that there are manifold risks which can be identified in any construction project is explained by their size and complexity. Bigger the project is, the larger the number of potential risks that may be faced.
Occurrence of risk is stimulated by several factors. Most often the risks faced in any project are financial, environmental (surrounding location of project and overall regulations), time, design and quality. The technology used for construction and the internal environment also contributes to risk which can have substantial bearing on the outcome of a project.
Risks are directly proportional to complexity of a project. Bigger and more complex a project is, the more resources are required to complete it. In spite of identifying all potential risks, there might be more potential threats. Therefore, the project team should not solely focus on management of those identified risks but also be alert for any new potential risks which may arise during execution.
Risk management is a tool for managing risks in a project and a project manager should be prepared for managing uncertainties not included in a risk management plan.
Effective management of risky project demands rapid and realistic predictions of alternative courses of action and positive decision making and requires flexible attitudes and procedures.
Perception of severity and frequency of occurrence of risk is to be done in tandem between the stakeholders. This will eliminate lot of unnecessary correspondence as well as misunderstanding and friction between the stakeholders
Insurance is just one aspect of risk mitigation and it cannot absorb all the risks. Insurance is project specific and it should be taken as per the needs of client/contractor. Other ways of risk mitigation needs to be explored.
Adoption of good project management practices like proper planning and implementation, willingness of stake holders to share the risks in the project is essential for success of a project
Executing a complex project requires meticulous planning, i.e. planning to the smallest details, and this can be achieved through concerted dedication from the concerned stakeholders.
Risks are to be thoroughly studied and understood before bidding for the project.
Special care should be taken regarding the seasonal variation of labourers, so that the construction activities does not get delayed due to shortfall in manpower resources during execution, which can have adverse effects on cost and time
Proper risk allocation techniques should be framed between the stakeholders so that in the event of occurrence of a risk, this will eliminate doubts as to which stakeholder should address the risk
Given its complexity, risk management is a very important process in construction projects. It is most widely used in those projects which exhibits high level of uncertainty. Formal planning, assessment and monitoring/control process characterises risk management in such projects.
Risk management procedures should be initiated in the early stages of the project where planning and contracting of work, together with the preliminary capital budget are being chalked out. In later stages, Risk management applied systemically, helps to control those critical elements which can have negative impact on project performance.
Keeping track of identified threats, will result in early warnings to the project manager if any of the objectives, time, cost or quality, is being met or not.
Risks in complex construction projects can be mitigated by entering into various agreements like execution, operation/maintenance, etc.
Proper risk strategy formulation and research is necessary based on real life experiences so that identification of potential risks and providing solutions can produce effective and efficient risk strategies to overcome impacts of risk events.
Risk identification is the first step in the risk management process. It means that the identification of risks which is informal relies mostly on past experience of similar executed projects and that of advice from experts. There are a good number of methods for identifying the risks in a project and a combination of methods may be used for identification of risks in a project.
Handling potential threats is not only a way to minimise losses within the project, but also a way to transform risks into opportunities, which can lead to economical profitability and finally, .it is suggested that if risks are given due care at all stages of the project, stakeholders will be showered with manifold benefits subsequent to commissioning of project
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