About the book
Objects for researching are systems, products, or services in conditions of uncertainties in their life cycles. The forecasting in mathematics is understood at the level of possible successes or failures during the given prognostic period. The main idea of the book is to explain for the reader the essence of mathematical forecasting, effects in practice, and interpretation of the results of modeling. Readers should see: mathematicians try to trace system purpose achievement, to connect the concept of success with achieved effectiveness, with properties of reliability, safety, other critical system properties. It should be useful for preventing a loss of benefit and wasted expenses and unforeseen damages.
Indeed for this, the various mathematical models and methods applicable to different systems and processes are invited.
The content is structured by the topics: General Mathematical Propositions for Forecasting and Solving the Problems of Analysis, Optimization and Extracting Effects (1), Risk Analysis. Effective Use of Opportunities and Reliable Counteractions against Threats and Damages (for Industrial Systems, Natural Hazards and Events, Transport and Cosmic Systems) (2), Forecasting for Information Systems, Processes, and Artificial Intelligence. Making Decisions and Knowledge Management (3), Monitoring, Control and Rationale of Preventive Actions by Forecasting (4), Forecasting for Social Processes (5).
The book is planned for systems analysts which can be customers, designers, developers, users, experts, as well as for staff of quality, risk, safety, and security management, and, of course, for scientists, researchers, and students. It is expected the proposed models and methods will be applicable in the system life cycle to study system operation, explain and optimize system requirements, rationale technical decisions, predict and analyze quality, risks, and effects, compare different processes, adjust technological parameters of systems, including embedded “real-time” forecasting, etc.
The examples of purposeful essential improvement of quality, safety, effectiveness, and mitigation of risks, and decrease expenses for created and operating systems are expected.
The book should be focused also on education in system analysis and modeling. The specializations «System engineering», «Operations research», "Enterprise management", «Project management», «Risk management», «Quality of systems», "Safety and security", “Smart systems”, “System of systems” are expected to be covered.