About the book
In this book, the global economic environment will be analyzed and inflation dynamics estimated and forecasted in five different cases – United States, Euro Area, Russia, China, and developing countries. By modeling inflation across the world, we can disentangle the role of global players, their linkages and potential threat of new global crisis. PVAR, cointegration, support vector regressions, Gaussian process regressions and other methods will be used in out-of-sample comparisons. Each case’s performance will be combined in a forecast model using different combination puzzles such as neural networks, equal weights, and inverse MSE. The models will forecast short-run, medium-run and long-run dynamics. Multi-country extension analysis is crucial to understand the global economic environment and potential threat of new financial crisis. Such findings are important for policy makers to comprehend a helicopter view of the global economics, while assisting governments to prepare for anti-inflationary strategies. Macroprudential policies can also be drawn from the above analysis.