Models and Scenarios Used in the Studies.
\\n\\n
IntechOpen was founded by scientists, for scientists, in order to make book publishing accessible around the globe. Over the last two decades, this has driven Open Access (OA) book publishing whilst levelling the playing field for global academics. Through our innovative publishing model and the support of the research community, we have now published over 5,700 Open Access books and are visited online by over three million academics every month. These researchers are increasingly working in broad technology-based subjects, driving multidisciplinary academic endeavours into human health, environment, and technology.
\\n\\nBy listening to our community, and in order to serve these rapidly growing areas which lie at the core of IntechOpen's expertise, we are launching a portfolio of Open Science journals:
\\n\\nAll three journals will publish under an Open Access model and embrace Open Science policies to help support the changing needs of academics in these fast-moving research areas. There will be direct links to preprint servers and data repositories, allowing full reproducibility and rapid dissemination of published papers to help accelerate the pace of research. Each journal has renowned Editors in Chief who will work alongside a global Editorial Board, delivering robust single-blind peer review. Supported by our internal editorial teams, this will ensure our authors will receive a quick, user-friendly, and personalised publishing experience.
\\n\\n"By launching our journals portfolio we are introducing new, dedicated homes for interdisciplinary technology-focused researchers to publish their work, whilst embracing Open Science and creating a unique global home for academics to disseminate their work. We are taking a leap toward Open Science continuing and expanding our fundamental commitment to openly sharing scientific research across the world, making it available for the benefit of all." Dr. Sara Uhac, IntechOpen CEO
\\n\\n"Our aim is to promote and create better science for a better world by increasing access to information and the latest scientific developments to all scientists, innovators, entrepreneurs and students and give them the opportunity to learn, observe and contribute to knowledge creation. Open Science promotes a swifter path from research to innovation to produce new products and services." Alex Lazinica, IntechOpen founder
\\n\\nIn conclusion, Natalia Reinic Babic, Head of Journal Publishing and Open Science at IntechOpen adds:
\\n\\n“On behalf of the journal team I’d like to thank all our Editors in Chief, Editorial Boards, internal supporting teams, and our scientific community for their continuous support in making this portfolio a reality - we couldn’t have done it without you! With your support in place, we are confident these journals will become as impactful and successful as our book publishing program and bring us closer to a more open (science) future.”
\\n\\nWe invite you to visit the journals homepage and learn more about the journal’s Editorial Boards, scope and vision as all three journals are now open for submissions.
\\n\\nFeel free to share this news on social media and help us mark this memorable moment!
\\n\\n\\n"}]',published:!0,mainMedia:{caption:"",originalUrl:"/media/original/237"}},components:[{type:"htmlEditorComponent",content:'
After years of being acknowledged as the world's leading publisher of Open Access books, today, we are proud to announce we’ve successfully launched a portfolio of Open Science journals covering rapidly expanding areas of interdisciplinary research.
\n\n\n\nIntechOpen was founded by scientists, for scientists, in order to make book publishing accessible around the globe. Over the last two decades, this has driven Open Access (OA) book publishing whilst levelling the playing field for global academics. Through our innovative publishing model and the support of the research community, we have now published over 5,700 Open Access books and are visited online by over three million academics every month. These researchers are increasingly working in broad technology-based subjects, driving multidisciplinary academic endeavours into human health, environment, and technology.
\n\nBy listening to our community, and in order to serve these rapidly growing areas which lie at the core of IntechOpen's expertise, we are launching a portfolio of Open Science journals:
\n\nAll three journals will publish under an Open Access model and embrace Open Science policies to help support the changing needs of academics in these fast-moving research areas. There will be direct links to preprint servers and data repositories, allowing full reproducibility and rapid dissemination of published papers to help accelerate the pace of research. Each journal has renowned Editors in Chief who will work alongside a global Editorial Board, delivering robust single-blind peer review. Supported by our internal editorial teams, this will ensure our authors will receive a quick, user-friendly, and personalised publishing experience.
\n\n"By launching our journals portfolio we are introducing new, dedicated homes for interdisciplinary technology-focused researchers to publish their work, whilst embracing Open Science and creating a unique global home for academics to disseminate their work. We are taking a leap toward Open Science continuing and expanding our fundamental commitment to openly sharing scientific research across the world, making it available for the benefit of all." Dr. Sara Uhac, IntechOpen CEO
\n\n"Our aim is to promote and create better science for a better world by increasing access to information and the latest scientific developments to all scientists, innovators, entrepreneurs and students and give them the opportunity to learn, observe and contribute to knowledge creation. Open Science promotes a swifter path from research to innovation to produce new products and services." Alex Lazinica, IntechOpen founder
\n\nIn conclusion, Natalia Reinic Babic, Head of Journal Publishing and Open Science at IntechOpen adds:
\n\n“On behalf of the journal team I’d like to thank all our Editors in Chief, Editorial Boards, internal supporting teams, and our scientific community for their continuous support in making this portfolio a reality - we couldn’t have done it without you! With your support in place, we are confident these journals will become as impactful and successful as our book publishing program and bring us closer to a more open (science) future.”
\n\nWe invite you to visit the journals homepage and learn more about the journal’s Editorial Boards, scope and vision as all three journals are now open for submissions.
\n\nFeel free to share this news on social media and help us mark this memorable moment!
\n\n\n'}],latestNews:[{slug:"intechopen-supports-asapbio-s-new-initiative-publish-your-reviews-20220729",title:"IntechOpen Supports ASAPbio’s New Initiative Publish Your Reviews"},{slug:"webinar-introduction-to-open-science-wednesday-18-may-1-pm-cest-20220518",title:"Webinar: Introduction to Open Science | Wednesday 18 May, 1 PM CEST"},{slug:"step-in-the-right-direction-intechopen-launches-a-portfolio-of-open-science-journals-20220414",title:"Step in the Right Direction: IntechOpen Launches a Portfolio of Open Science Journals"},{slug:"let-s-meet-at-london-book-fair-5-7-april-2022-olympia-london-20220321",title:"Let’s meet at London Book Fair, 5-7 April 2022, Olympia London"},{slug:"50-books-published-as-part-of-intechopen-and-knowledge-unlatched-ku-collaboration-20220316",title:"50 Books published as part of IntechOpen and Knowledge Unlatched (KU) Collaboration"},{slug:"intechopen-joins-the-united-nations-sustainable-development-goals-publishers-compact-20221702",title:"IntechOpen joins the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals Publishers Compact"},{slug:"intechopen-signs-exclusive-representation-agreement-with-lsr-libros-servicios-y-representaciones-s-a-de-c-v-20211123",title:"IntechOpen Signs Exclusive Representation Agreement with LSR Libros Servicios y Representaciones S.A. de C.V"},{slug:"intechopen-expands-partnership-with-research4life-20211110",title:"IntechOpen Expands Partnership with Research4Life"}]},book:{item:{type:"book",id:"6323",leadTitle:null,fullTitle:"PID Control for Industrial Processes",title:"PID Control for Industrial Processes",subtitle:null,reviewType:"peer-reviewed",abstract:"PID Control for Industrial Processes presents a clear, multidimensional representation of proportional - integral - derivative (PID) control for both students and specialists working in the area of PID control. It mainly focuses on the theory and application of PID control in industrial processes. It incorporates recent developments in PID control technology in industrial practice. Emphasis has been given to finding the best possible approach to develop a simple and optimal solution for industrial users. This book includes several chapters that cover a broad range of topics and priority has been given to subjects that cover real-world examples and case studies. The book is focused on approaches for controller tuning, i.e., method bases on open-loop plant tests and closed-loop experiments.",isbn:"978-1-78923-701-6",printIsbn:"978-1-78923-700-9",pdfIsbn:"978-1-83881-401-4",doi:"10.5772/intechopen.69592",price:119,priceEur:129,priceUsd:155,slug:"pid-control-for-industrial-processes",numberOfPages:218,isOpenForSubmission:!1,isInWos:null,isInBkci:!1,hash:"3994459e0812cf44a04b3f6c3e28e9c1",bookSignature:"Mohammad Shamsuzzoha",publishedDate:"September 12th 2018",coverURL:"https://cdn.intechopen.com/books/images_new/6323.jpg",numberOfDownloads:12130,numberOfWosCitations:14,numberOfCrossrefCitations:21,numberOfCrossrefCitationsByBook:2,numberOfDimensionsCitations:28,numberOfDimensionsCitationsByBook:2,hasAltmetrics:1,numberOfTotalCitations:63,isAvailableForWebshopOrdering:!0,dateEndFirstStepPublish:"May 15th 2017",dateEndSecondStepPublish:"June 5th 2017",dateEndThirdStepPublish:"September 1st 2017",dateEndFourthStepPublish:"November 30th 2017",dateEndFifthStepPublish:"January 29th 2018",currentStepOfPublishingProcess:5,indexedIn:"1,2,3,4,5,6,7",editedByType:"Edited by",kuFlag:!1,featuredMarkup:null,editors:[{id:"87344",title:"Dr.",name:"Mohammad",middleName:null,surname:"Shamsuzzoha",slug:"mohammad-shamsuzzoha",fullName:"Mohammad Shamsuzzoha",profilePictureURL:"https://mts.intechopen.com/storage/users/87344/images/system/87344.jpg",biography:"Dr. Mohammad Shamsuzzoha has a Ph.D. in chemical engineering, specializing in process design, modeling, simulation, and control. He conducts studies and provides process engineering and modeling and simulation support to clients in a wide area of process industries. Before his present position, he has worked in ADNOC Refining Co. as a Senior Specialist in Process Engineering, focused on technical support to refinery and gas plant, including process modeling and simulation, modification, and design of refinery units and associated gas plant. Recently he has completed MBA in Entrepreneurship and Leadership. Dr. Shamsuzzoha has unique work experience in academics, industries, and research and development in a multicultural environment.",institutionString:"Industrial Process Modelling and Control",position:null,outsideEditionCount:0,totalCites:0,totalAuthoredChapters:"1",totalChapterViews:"0",totalEditedBooks:"1",institution:null}],equalEditorOne:null,equalEditorTwo:null,equalEditorThree:null,coeditorOne:null,coeditorTwo:null,coeditorThree:null,coeditorFour:null,coeditorFive:null,topics:[{id:"725",title:"Industrial Control System",slug:"industrial-control-system"}],chapters:[{id:"63028",title:"Data-Based Tuning of PID Controllers: A Combined Model- Reference and VRFT Method",doi:"10.5772/intechopen.75835",slug:"data-based-tuning-of-pid-controllers-a-combined-model-reference-and-vrft-method",totalDownloads:1077,totalCrossrefCites:2,totalDimensionsCites:2,hasAltmetrics:0,abstract:"This chapter presents a novel data-based proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller tuning method that can be applied to stable, integrating, and unstable plants. The tuning method is developed under the virtual reference feedback tuning (VRFT) design framework, where the reference model of VRFT is coordinately optimized with the controller on the basis of the model-reference (MR) criterion to ensure the validity of the VRFT approach. In the proposed MR-VRFT method, a set of closed-loop plant data are directly exploited without resorting to a process model. Because of its closed-loop tuning capability, the MR-VRFT method can be applied online to improve (retune) existing underperforming controllers. Moreover, the tuning method includes a robustness specification based on the maximum sensitivity that enables the designer to explicitly address the trade-off between performance and robustness. Simulation studies, including the application to an unstable biochemical reactor, are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of MR-VRFT method.",signatures:"Jyh-Cheng Jeng",downloadPdfUrl:"/chapter/pdf-download/63028",previewPdfUrl:"/chapter/pdf-preview/63028",authors:[{id:"112859",title:"Prof.",name:"Jyh-Cheng",surname:"Jeng",slug:"jyh-cheng-jeng",fullName:"Jyh-Cheng Jeng"}],corrections:null},{id:"62610",title:"Maximum Peak-Gain Margin (Mp-GM) Tuning Method for Two Degree of Freedom PID Controller",doi:"10.5772/intechopen.74293",slug:"maximum-peak-gain-margin-mp-gm-tuning-method-for-two-degree-of-freedom-pid-controller",totalDownloads:1027,totalCrossrefCites:3,totalDimensionsCites:3,hasAltmetrics:0,abstract:"The specification of controller setting for a standard controller typically requires a trade-off between set point tracking and disturbance rejection. For this reason, two simple strategies can be used to adjust the set point and disturbance responses independently. These strategies are referred as controllers that have two degree of freedom. Unfortunately, the tuning parameters of the model uncertainty at two degree of freedom structure controller are difficult to obtain. Maximum peak-gain margin (Mp-GM) tuning method has been introduced to obtain the setting parameters of two degree of freedom structure controller based on model uncertainty. This tuning method is able to obtain reasonable controller parameters even under process uncertainties on standard two degree of freedom IMC. This research was conducted to develop maximum peak-gain margin tuning method for another two degree of freedom structure controller such as two degree of freedom IMC by Kaya [9] and two degree of freedom PID. The simulation results show that the maximum peak-gain margin tuning method can give a good target set point tracking, disturbance rejection, and robustness in two degree of freedom structure controller system.",signatures:"Juwari Purwo Sutikno, Nur Hidayah and Renanto Handogo",downloadPdfUrl:"/chapter/pdf-download/62610",previewPdfUrl:"/chapter/pdf-preview/62610",authors:[{id:"211205",title:"Dr.",name:"Juwari",surname:"Purwo Sutikno",slug:"juwari-purwo-sutikno",fullName:"Juwari Purwo Sutikno"},{id:"211209",title:"MSc.",name:"Nur",surname:"Hidayah",slug:"nur-hidayah",fullName:"Nur Hidayah"},{id:"211210",title:"Prof.",name:"Renanto",surname:"Handogo",slug:"renanto-handogo",fullName:"Renanto Handogo"}],corrections:null},{id:"59912",title:"Optimum PI/PID Controllers Tuning via an Evolutionary Algorithm",doi:"10.5772/intechopen.74297",slug:"optimum-pi-pid-controllers-tuning-via-an-evolutionary-algorithm",totalDownloads:1412,totalCrossrefCites:2,totalDimensionsCites:3,hasAltmetrics:0,abstract:"In this chapter, it is demonstrated that when using advanced evolutionary algorithms, whatever the adopted system model (SOSPD, nonminimum phase, oscillatory or nonlinear), it is possible to find optimal parameters for PID controllers satisfying simultaneously the behavior of the system and a performance index such as absolute integral error (IAE). The Multidynamics Algorithm for Global Optimization (MAGO) is used to solve the control problem with PID controllers. MAGO is an evolutionary algorithm without parameters, with statistical operators, and for the optimization, it does not need the derivatives, what makes it very effective for complex engineering problems. A selection of some representative benchmark systems is carried out, and the respectively two-degree-of-freedom (2DoF) PID controllers are tuned. A power electronic converter is adopted as a case study and based on its nonlinear dynamical model, a PI controller is tuned. In all cases, the control problem is formulated as a constrained optimization problem and solved using MAGO. The results found are outstanding.",signatures:"Jorge-Humberto Urrea-Quintero, Jesús-Antonio Hernández-Riveros\nand Nicolás Muñoz-Galeano",downloadPdfUrl:"/chapter/pdf-download/59912",previewPdfUrl:"/chapter/pdf-preview/59912",authors:[{id:"213236",title:"Ph.D. Student",name:"Jorge-Humberto",surname:"Urrea-Quintero",slug:"jorge-humberto-urrea-quintero",fullName:"Jorge-Humberto Urrea-Quintero"},{id:"213237",title:"Dr.",name:"Jesús",surname:"Hernandez-Riveros",slug:"jesus-hernandez-riveros",fullName:"Jesús Hernandez-Riveros"},{id:"213238",title:"Dr.",name:"Nicolás",surname:"Muñoz-Galeano",slug:"nicolas-munoz-galeano",fullName:"Nicolás Muñoz-Galeano"}],corrections:null},{id:"62915",title:"Advanced Methods of PID Controller Tuning for Specified Performance",doi:"10.5772/intechopen.76069",slug:"advanced-methods-of-pid-controller-tuning-for-specified-performance",totalDownloads:3530,totalCrossrefCites:12,totalDimensionsCites:18,hasAltmetrics:0,abstract:"This chapter provides a concise survey, classification and historical perspective of practice-oriented methods for designing proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controllers and autotuners showing the persistent demand for PID tuning algorithms that integrate performance requirements into the tuning algorithm. The proposed frequency-domain PID controller design method guarantees closed-loop performance in terms of commonly used time-domain specifications. One of its major benefits is universal applicability for both slow and fast-controlled plants with unknown mathematical model. Special charts called B-parabolas were developed as a practical design tool that enables consistent and systematic shaping of the closed-loop step response with regard to specified performance and dynamics of the uncertain controlled plant.",signatures:"Štefan Bucz and Alena Kozáková",downloadPdfUrl:"/chapter/pdf-download/62915",previewPdfUrl:"/chapter/pdf-preview/62915",authors:[{id:"21933",title:"Ms.",name:"Alena",surname:"Kozakova",slug:"alena-kozakova",fullName:"Alena Kozakova"},{id:"213658",title:"Dr.",name:"Štefan",surname:"Bucz",slug:"stefan-bucz",fullName:"Štefan Bucz"}],corrections:null},{id:"60243",title:"PID Control for Takagi-Sugeno Fuzzy Model",doi:"10.5772/intechopen.74295",slug:"pid-control-for-takagi-sugeno-fuzzy-model",totalDownloads:919,totalCrossrefCites:0,totalDimensionsCites:0,hasAltmetrics:0,abstract:"In this chapter, we deal with the problem of controlling Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy model by PID controllers using the particle swarm optimization (PSO). Therefore, a new algorithm is proposed. This algorithm relies on the use of a new objective function taking into account both the performance indices and the error signal. The advantages of this approach are discussed through simulations on a numerical example.",signatures:"Taieb Adel and Chaari Abdelkader",downloadPdfUrl:"/chapter/pdf-download/60243",previewPdfUrl:"/chapter/pdf-preview/60243",authors:[{id:"212319",title:"Dr.",name:"Adel",surname:"Taieb",slug:"adel-taieb",fullName:"Adel Taieb"},{id:"212815",title:"Prof.",name:"Abdelkader",surname:"Chaari",slug:"abdelkader-chaari",fullName:"Abdelkader Chaari"}],corrections:null},{id:"60842",title:"Distillation Column",doi:"10.5772/intechopen.74656",slug:"distillation-column",totalDownloads:1009,totalCrossrefCites:1,totalDimensionsCites:1,hasAltmetrics:1,abstract:"Dynamic simulations are used to model systems that are in transition from a steady state to dynamic state. The dynamic model is used to evaluate different basic control schemes and later to evaluate and test the control strategy. In this chapter, a steady-state simulation and dynamic simulation for debutanizer column are performed using a plant process simulator, HYSYS™. The objective of this chapter is to study the process variables of each controller at the column by using different tuning relations and identify the best tuning methods for the controllers in order to optimise the performance of the column. Two tuning methods are used in determining the controller settings for each controller. The process variable for each controller are used by using two different tuning methods are being studied. Furthermore, the effect on the process variables of each controller when using the controller settings based on real plant data and calculated using the PID equation is also being analysed. As for conclusion, the different tuning methods could give the different results on the behaviour of the response for each controller and the optimum response for each controller could be determined by considering the behaviour of the response and the value of integral square of the error (ISE) and integral of absolute value of error (IAE). All the research and findings obtained will be used to improve the overall performance of the plant as well as to improve the quality of the product and maximise profitability. The successful outcome of this chapter will be a great helping hand for industrial application.",signatures:"Nasser Mohamed Ramli",downloadPdfUrl:"/chapter/pdf-download/60842",previewPdfUrl:"/chapter/pdf-preview/60842",authors:[{id:"209483",title:"Dr.",name:"Nasser",surname:"Mohamed Ramli",slug:"nasser-mohamed-ramli",fullName:"Nasser Mohamed Ramli"}],corrections:null},{id:"59487",title:"Constraint Handling Optimal PI Controller Design for Integrating Processes: Optimization-Based Approach for Analytical Design",doi:"10.5772/intechopen.74301",slug:"constraint-handling-optimal-pi-controller-design-for-integrating-processes-optimization-based-approa",totalDownloads:823,totalCrossrefCites:0,totalDimensionsCites:0,hasAltmetrics:0,abstract:"This chapter introduces the closed-form analytical design of proportional-integral (PI) controller parameters for the optimal control subjected to operational constraints. The main idea of the design is not only to minimize the control performance index but also to cope with the constraints in the process variable, controller output, and its rate of change. The proposed optimization-based approach is examined to regulatory and servo control of integrating processes with three typical operation constraints. To derive an analytical design formula, the constrained optimal control problem in the time domain was transformed to an unconstrained optimization in a new parameter space associated with closed-loop dynamics. By taking the advantage of the proposed analytical approach, the optimal PI parameters can be found quickly based on the graphical analysis without complex numerical optimization. The resulting optimal PI controller guarantees the globally optimal closed-loop response and handles the operational constraints precisely.",signatures:"Rodrigue Tchamna and Moonyong Lee",downloadPdfUrl:"/chapter/pdf-download/59487",previewPdfUrl:"/chapter/pdf-preview/59487",authors:[{id:"10067",title:"Prof.",name:"Moonyong",surname:"Lee",slug:"moonyong-lee",fullName:"Moonyong Lee"},{id:"220193",title:"Dr.",name:"Rodrigue",surname:"Tchamna",slug:"rodrigue-tchamna",fullName:"Rodrigue Tchamna"}],corrections:null},{id:"60226",title:"Decoupling Control and Soft Sensor Design for an Experimental Platform",doi:"10.5772/intechopen.75708",slug:"decoupling-control-and-soft-sensor-design-for-an-experimental-platform",totalDownloads:1275,totalCrossrefCites:0,totalDimensionsCites:0,hasAltmetrics:0,abstract:"This chapter presents the design and implementation of a decoupling control strategy for an experimental platform and pilot plant, dedicated to the study of the fouling phenomena which occur in industrial tubes. Initially, a set of tests was done for the identification and validation of FOPDT models suitable to the four processes of the multivariable system: flow-voltage, flow-current, pressure-voltage, and pressure-current. After, the interaction between the inputs and outputs of the system was analyzed by the RGA and RNGA matrices. The static decoupling and decentralized PID controllers tuned by the Ziegler-Nichols and IMC methods were designed. Then, the set point tracking response was simulated and implemented using MATLAB and LabVIEW software, respectively. Finally, the concept of soft sensor was applied to monitor the output variables of the experimental platform, for a better performance of the decoupling control.",signatures:"Thamiles Rodrigues de Melo, Nathália Arthur Brunet Monteiro,\nDanilo Pequeno, Jaidilson Jó da Silva and José Sérgio da Rocha Neto",downloadPdfUrl:"/chapter/pdf-download/60226",previewPdfUrl:"/chapter/pdf-preview/60226",authors:[{id:"39531",title:"Dr.",name:"Jaidilson",surname:"Silva",slug:"jaidilson-silva",fullName:"Jaidilson Silva"},{id:"126899",title:"Dr.",name:"Jose Sergio",surname:"Da Rocha Neto",slug:"jose-sergio-da-rocha-neto",fullName:"Jose Sergio Da Rocha Neto"},{id:"220616",title:"Ph.D. Student",name:"Thamiles",surname:"Melo",slug:"thamiles-melo",fullName:"Thamiles Melo"},{id:"223807",title:"Ph.D. Student",name:"Nathália",surname:"Monteiro",slug:"nathalia-monteiro",fullName:"Nathália Monteiro"},{id:"223808",title:"B.Sc.",name:"Danilo",surname:"Pequeno",slug:"danilo-pequeno",fullName:"Danilo Pequeno"}],corrections:null},{id:"59537",title:"PID Controller Design Methods for Multi-Mass Resonance System",doi:"10.5772/intechopen.74298",slug:"pid-controller-design-methods-for-multi-mass-resonance-system",totalDownloads:1060,totalCrossrefCites:1,totalDimensionsCites:1,hasAltmetrics:0,abstract:"Motor drive systems are indispensable for applications in the industrial field. High-speed and high-accuracy control is required for motor drive systems. However, solutions to meet these requirements can cause mechanical resonance vibrations to occur in the system as a result of miniaturization and system weight reduction. It is therefore necessary to model these systems as multi-mass resonance systems with multiple masses and finite rigid shafts, gears, and loads. In addition, vibration suppression control should be applied to these systems. This chapter provides two off-line tuning methods for a digital proportional-integral-derivative (PID)-type controller for a two-mass resonance system to suppress its mechanical resonance vibrations. These methods include a coefficient diagram method and a fictitious reference iterative tuning method. The former method uses a nominal mathematical model of the object while the latter method uses only the initial experimental data without use of the mathematical model. In this chapter, the two methods are compared. 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Among the issues that humanity currently faces and will face in the future, the scarcity of water and the onset of large-scale events linked to it – such as the increasingly frequent periods of protracted drought and heavy flooding in different regions of the world – are undoubtedly some of the most pressing. Accordingly, these conditions will have to be considered in the modeling and analysis of water supply and demand in the coming years. As the distribution and growth of the world population runs parallel both to the increasing demand for water for different uses and the potential reduction of natural resources, these are important factors that hereafter will affect the availability of the liquid for human consumption.
Section 1, in describing the impact of climate change on the availability and distribution of water resources, analyzes this phenomenon under different models and scenarios of greenhouse gases emissions; section 2 refers to and documents the implications of water availability in different regions, taking into account the various production and development sectors; lastly, in section 3 we discuss some cases of adjustment policies implemented through the adaptive management approach (implemented in recent years in different parts of the world).
The first section of the present chapter yields some relevant results from the research that has been advanced at the Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera (CCA) [Center for Atmospheric Sciences] and the Programa de Investigación en Cambio Climático (PINCC) [Climate Change Research Program] of the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM) [National Autonomous University of Mexico], based on the modeling of climate change in different regions and covering various aspects, notably the situation of productive and development sectors vis-à-vis water resources.
The chapter provides, among other items, the findings derived from modeling the potential impact of climate change on the availability of water and the degree of pressure exerted on water resources in four hydrological-administrative regions of the Comisión Nacional del Agua (CNA) [National Commission of Water] in the Gulf of Mexico Basin, with the corresponding documentation. In depicting the vulnerability of water resources in the Guayalejo-Tamesí River Basin due to climate change, it highlights the effects of this phenomenon on irrigation districts (e.g., the downturn it has brought about in the supply/demand rate). The scenarios contemplate the coverage of demand, the supply requirements, and the unmet requests in the region. Likewise, the consequences of capturing rainwater for irrigation purposes in a pilot project based in San Miguel de Allende, Mexico, are discussed in the context of strategies for adapting to climate change.
The chapter in question also seeks to address important issues regarding the potential impact of climate change on the hydropower sector by focusing on the relationship of water supply/demand in the Sinú-Caribe River Basin in Colombia. In doing so, it analyzes briefly the eventuality that water resources embody a limiting factor in the course of time for different activities in the region, and provides at the end a series of observations that can help to plan and establish guidelines for the different production and development sectors.
Finally, the chapter points to the importance of adaptive schemes for the sustainable management of water resources under scenarios of high uncertainty and complexity. Moreover, by using several examples from the international realm on the adaptive management of water, this section shall show how the participatory-laden management of public policies, in conjunction with the measures referred to as "flexible," can effectively address several of the dilemmas as regards to water resources and the natural hazards that accompany climate change.
In order to observe the effects of climate change on hydric resources, it is necessary to work out future scenarios of those variables that become more relevant or influential as far as the availability of water is concerned, such as: temperature (T), precipitation (PCP), and evaporation (Ev), among others
Nowadays, there are several joint models (Atmosphere/Ocean General Circulation Model [AOGCM]) that are run under different scenarios of greenhouse gases emissions, which result in a wide range of future scenarios on a global and regional scale with respect to climate variables. This allows us to pose different projections whereby multiple analyses are facilitated and solid tools are generated for decision makers. At the same time, however, there appears a high degree of uncertainty and complexity – something that one must take into account when studying the impact of climate change on water availability, as the present chapter intends to do.
The afore mentioned studies are relying on some models and have considered different periods of analysis; this information is given in Table 1, which includes the approximate location of the projects. Table 2 briefly describes the patterns of the various scenarios that have been used.
In each one of these studies, the projections of climate change’s effects on the availability of hydric resources were estimated mainly by adjusting the averages for the mean temperature (meaT), the highest temperature (maxT), and precipitation (PCP) (base lines) taking into account the most representative weather stations that can be found within and/or close to the corresponding areas under scrutiny, while the projections about the anomalies to be ascribed to each region were provided by the program known as MAGICC/SCENGEN Authors such as Wigley (1994), (Wigley2003), Hulme., et al (2000), Conde (2003) point out that there are simple climate models which incorporate the gamut of emissions scenarios to the studies of climate change. According to them, these models can simulate the response of global climate to changes in the concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) in terms of an increment in temperature and the rise of the sea level. One of them is the model for the evaluation of greenhouse gases effects that is designated as the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-Gas Induced Climate (MAGICC). However, for the results of MAGICC to be combined with the outlets of general circulation models (GCMs), it is necessary to use the climate scenario generator called SCENGEN (Regional Climate SCENarioGENerator).
For the analysis of hydric resources, each one of the projects had to use a different and, indeed, numerous series of variables and relations, namely the current availability (or natural offer) of water; evaporation; flow or expenses; the P/T (Precipitation/ Temperature) relationship or Lang Index (IL); the supply/demand relation; the projections made for hydric resources, for its demand, and for the population; the index of pressure on the resource, etc.
More details about the information on models, scenarios, tools, back-up software, and the methodologies used can be found in: (Sánchez-Torres., et al, 2011; Ospina-Noreña., et al, 2009a; Ospina-Noreña., et al, 2009b; Ospina-Noreña., et al, 2010; Ospina-Noreña., et al, 2011a; Ospina-Noreña., et al, 2011b).
Furthermore, for the information concerning greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, global climate models or general circulation models (GCMs), programs known as climate scenario generators, and relevant conceptualizations of climate change, we refer to Wigley (1994), Wigley (2003), Hulme, et al (2000), Conde (2003); as for the examination of vulnerability and the effects on different sectors, see Gay (2000).
As for the regions on which the studies referred to in this chapter are concentrated, the climate change scenarios show a tendency to the rise of the mean temperature and the highest temperature in each case. Regarding precipitation, the projections indicate slight to substantial increases or decreases in a given region (Tables 3, 4, 5, 6), which implies a high degree of uncertainty in the results – something that will have to be assessed.
“Impacts of Climate Change on the Hydric Regions of the Gulf of Mexico” (Ospina-Noreña., et al, 2010). | GFDLCM 2.0 | X | X | X | X | 17-23° N | 89-99° W | |||||
MPIECH-5 | X | X | X | X | ||||||||
“Vulnerability of Water Resources to Climate Change Scenarios. Impacts on the Irrigation Districts in the Guayalejo-Tamesí River Basin, Tamaulipas, Mexico” (Sánchez-Torres., et al, 2011). | GFDLCM 2.0 | X | X | X | X | X | X | 22º47’39” | 98º42’58” | |||
MPIECH-5 | X | X | X | X | X | X | ||||||
UKDADCM3 | X | X | X | X | X | X | ||||||
“Scenarios of Climate Change for Collecting Rainwater” (Advance of the work in progress by Ingenieros Sin Fronteras México, A.C., and the Instituto Tierra y Cal, A.C.). | MPIECH-5 | X | X | X | X | 21° N | 101° W | |||||
UKHADCM3 | X | X | X | X | ||||||||
UKHADGEM | X | X | X | X | ||||||||
GFDLCM21 | X | X | X | X | ||||||||
MIROCMED | X | X | X | X | ||||||||
CSIRO-30 | X | X | X | X | ||||||||
CCCMA-31 | X | X | X | X | ||||||||
Weighted Average | X | X | ||||||||||
“Examination of the Sinú-Caribe River Basin, Colombia” (Ospina, 2009, Ospina-Noreña., et al, 2009a, Ospina-Noreña., et al, 2009b, Ospina-Noreña., et al, 2011a, Ospina-Noreña., et al, 2011b). | CCSRNIES-A21 | X | X | X | 7-10° N | 75-77° W | ||||||
CSIROMK2B-A21 | X | X | X | |||||||||
CGCM2-A21 | X | X | X | |||||||||
CGCM2-A22 | X | X | X | |||||||||
CGCM2-A23 | X | X | X | |||||||||
HadCM3-A21 | X | X | X | |||||||||
HadCM3-A22 | X | X | X | |||||||||
HadCM3-A23 | X | X | X | |||||||||
Weighted Average | X | X |
Models and Scenarios Used in the Studies.
A1 | It describes a future world with fast economic growth, a world population that attains its highest value by the midcentury to decrease subsequently, and the rapid dissemination of new, more efficient technologies. Some of the most important characteristics are a convergence between regions, the building-up of capacities together with the increase of cultural and social interactions, and the reduction of regional differences as far as income per inhabitant is concerned. It contemplates three groups that are different in their technological orientation: intensive utilization of fossil energy sources (A1FI), intensive utilization of non-fossil energy sources (A1T), or a well-balanced employment of all kinds of sources (A1B). |
A2 | It presupposes a very heterogeneous world whose distinguishing traits are self-sufficiency and the preservation of local identities, as well as the continuous growth of the world population. The economic development is basically oriented to the regions, whereas the economic growth per inhabitant and technological change are rather fragmentary and slower than in the case of other scenario families. |
B1 | It describes a world in convergence with a world population that reaches a maximum by the midpoint of the present century and decreases subsequently, as is the case in the evolutionary line A1; also, it presupposes sudden changes of the economic structures leading to an information and service economy, a decreasing utilization of materials, and the introduction of clean technologies whereby it becomes possible to profit efficiently from resources. Notably, its focus is on economic, social, and environmental sustainability. |
B2 | This scenario family presupposes a world in which local solutions to the need for economic, social, and environmental sustainability predominate; the population increases progressively at a slower pace than in A2, whereas economic growth occupies an intermediate position and technological change is less fast, though more diversified, than in the evolutionary lines B1 and A1. It is focused principally on the local and regional levels (this scenario has already been superseded). |
Characteristics of the Scenario Families.
Although the estimates used in the projections of climate change’s effects on water resources availability for each one of the CNA’s hydrological-administrative regions (see, Attached Document I) and in the study on the collection of water were applied every five years, herein we will present only some relevant results regarding the periods mentioned in Table 1. Table 3 registers a slight increase in region XII (the Yucatán Peninsula) that was provided by model GFDLCM2.0 for scenarios A2 and B2, as well as small decreases for the rest of the regions, region IX (Northern Gulf) being the most affected, as it reaches a decrease of 10.8% in scenario A2 and 4.3% in scenario B2 for 2080. On the other hand, model MPIECH-5 for the A2 and B2 scenarios projects important reductions of precipitation in regions XII (-21.1% and -14.7% for scenarios A2 and B2, respectively, by 2080) and XI Frontera Sur (-26.4% and -18.5 for scenarios A2 and B2, respectively, by 2080), together with slightly minor diminutions in regions X (Central Gulf) and IX.
We can deduce from Table 4 that in the Guayalejo-Tamesí River Basin precipitation displays a tendency downwards, whereas temperature shows a tendency upwards, which in turn provokes a decrease in the P/T relationship or Lang Index (IL), used to determine the kind of year (very humid, humid, normal, dry or very dry); thus allowing the remark that for the period of 2010-2069 virtually no humid or very humid years are expected at the Guayalejo-Tamesí River Basin, the temperature sticking to normal and with trends towards dry and very dry days as time goes by. Again, though in this study the projections were undertaken year after year and for four emission scenarios (Sánchez-Torres., et al, 2011), the only findings that are presented correspond to scenarios A2 and B2 during the span of a decade and for the end of the periods reported in Table 1.
Year/Mod | ||||||||
% changePrec | Change meaT (°C) | % changePrec | Change meaT (°C) | % changePrec | Change meaT (°C) | % changePrec | Change meaT (°C) | |
4.7 | 0.5 | 4.3 | 0.6 | 0.26 | 0.51 | 0.5 | 0.58 | |
11.4 | 2.0 | 7.8 | 1.5 | -2.77 | 2.02 | -2.2 | 1.53 | |
-6.6 | 0.7 | -4.75 | 0.8 | -7.87 | 0.85 | -6.07 | 0.86 | |
-21.1 | 2.7 | -14.67 | 2.0 | -26.35 | 3.02 | -18.48 | 2.22 | |
-1.66 | 0.49 | 0.02 | 0.56 | -8.1 | 0.53 | -2.2 | 0.66 | |
-2.9 | 1.9 | -1.24 | 1.44 | -10.81 | 2.08 | -4.3 | 1.59 | |
-2.82 | 0.84 | -0.92 | 0.84 | -6.68 | 0.79 | -1.00 | 0.9 | |
-6.26 | 2.9 | -3.56 | 2.12 | -6.7 | 2.85 | -1.47 | 2.1 |
Anomalies of Precipitation and Mean Temperature for the Four Hydrological-Administrative Regions.
2039 | 25.6 | 764.1 | 29.9 | -9.6 | 25.7 | 810.1 | 31.6 | -4.6 |
2069 | 26.4 | 754.5 | 28.6 | -13.4 | 26.2 | 802.8 | 30.7 | -7.1 |
2039 | 26.0 | 751.9 | 28.9 | -12.6 | 26.0 | 800.6 | 30.8 | -7.0 |
2069 | 27.2 | 731.9 | 26.9 | -18.6 | 26.8 | 786.7 | 29.4 | -11.0 |
Climate Projections for the Study on the Irrigation Districts in the Guayalejo-Tamesí River Basin, Tamaulipas, México.
As is shown by the results of the study “Scenarios of Climate Change for Rainwater Collection” (prepared by Ingenieros Sin Fronteras México, A.C., and the Instituto Tierra y Cal, A.C, 2012), in the case of the A2 scenarios only one model, the GFDLCM21_A2, projects an increase in precipitation, that is, here 85.7% of the models analyzed indicate that a decrease in precipitation is highly likely; nevertheless, all the models are equally likely to occur. Therefore, our proposal is to generate the weighted average scenario, which takes into account the results of all the models and is meant to operate as a planning platform for the collection of rainwater or the availability of this resource, so as to avoid the most adverse effects. The two models that thoroughly undermine the objectives and aims of the project would be the CCCMA-31 and the CSIRO-30 (see Table 5).
As for the B2 scenarios, there are three (42.9%) where an increase is projected and four (57.1%) where a decrease in precipitation is foreseen; however, two of the three models that project an increase are almost insignificant, as can be observed in Table 5 – something that once again highlights the tendency toward a decrease in precipitation in the project’s study or influential area.
Regarding the research into the Sinú-Caribe River Basin in Colombia, the findings show a tendency to the rise in the highest temperature, and slight to substantial increases or decreases of the PCP, which leads to the reduction of water availability, the effects projected by model HadCM3 being the most adverse (see Table 6).
Relying on the projections for precipitation and the mean temperature, the Lang Index was calculated for the four scenarios that were obtained from running the models GFDLCM2.0 and MPIECH-5 for each one of the Gulf of Mexico’s hydrological-administrative regions. Such index can be interpreted as one measuring the degree of aridity or humidity that predominates in the various regions. Starting from the P/T relationship’s current values that are shown in Table 3, we determined the percentage of rise or diminution of such relation (see Table 7) according to the different projections – an amount that in turn is assumed to represent an increase or decrease in the availability of hydric resources.
The findings presented in Table 7 (which follow the classification set in Table 8) allow us to establish a change in trend in the climate zones of each hydrological-administrative region, as is shown also in Table 9. For example, in region XII a humid zone of steppe and savannah (Hzss) would turn into an arid zone (Az), whereas in regions XI and X humid zones of sparse forest (Hzsf) would become humid zones of steppe and savannah (Hzss). These figures were obtained as projected by the model MPIECH-5 for scenarios A2 and B2.
Change (%) | |||||||||||||||
2030 | -5.2 | 479.4 | -1.9 | 496.1 | -3.4 | 488.3 | 8.4 | 548.0 | -2.6 | 492.7 | -5.9 | 476.0 | -8.7 | 461.7 | 482.1 |
2060 | -10.0 | 455.1 | -3.0 | 490.3 | -6.3 | 473.7 | 18.5 | 599.3 | -4.5 | 482.9 | -11.4 | 447.9 | -17.3 | 417.9 | 460.7 |
Weighted Factor | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | ||||||||
Change through 2060€ | |||||||||||||||
2030 | -2.2 | 494.7 | 0.7 | 509.0 | -0.7 | 502.3 | 9.5 | 553.4 | 0.1 | 506.1 | -2.7 | 491.7 | -5.1 | 479.6 | 498.7 |
2060 | -3.8 | 486.6 | 1.6 | 513.4 | -1.0 | 500.8 | 18.0 | 596.6 | 0.5 | 507.9 | -4.9 | 481.1 | -9.4 | 458.2 | 494.1 |
Weighted Factor | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | ||||||||
Change through 2060€ |
Anomalies of Precipitation in the Study “Scenarios of Climate Change for Rainwater Collection.”
0.5 | 0.16 | -2.3 | -12.9 | -5.9 | 1 | |
0.7 | 13.5 | -1.9 | -12.6 | -2.3 | 1 | |
0.7 | -5.4 | -6.9 | -17.0 | -11.8 | 2 | |
0.9 | -2.6 | -7.8 | -17.8 | -13.3 | 2 | |
0.8 | -3.1 | -6.4 | -16.6 | -11.3 | 2 | |
1.9 | -21.0 | -29.7 | -37.3 | -34.9 | 4 | |
1.6 | -6.2 | -20.1 | -28.8 | -23.8 | 3 | |
1.4 | 9.6 | -10.5 | -20.2 | -14.2 | 2 | |
-18.8 | ||||||
Referenced or Current (average values) | 37.5 (°C) | 2,212.0 (mm) | 1,452.8 (MCM) - TMV: 1,630 (MCM) | 340.3 m3/s (in the dam) 527.7 m3/s (in all the basin) |
Projections of the Hydrological-Climatic Variables, Period of 2010-2039, Sinú-Caribe River Basin, Colombia.
2030 | -11.4 | -6.2 | -11.0 | -5.9 | -9.7 | -8.4 | -12.0 | -10.3 |
2080 | -19.1 | -11.6 | -17.8 | -10.8 | -15.8 | -12.8 | -21.7 | -17.1 |
2030 | -1.6 | -1.6 | -10.7 | -9.0 | 2.8 | 2.1 | -9.1 | -7.5 |
2080 | -9.6 | -7.5 | -33.8 | -24.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 | -28.4 | -20.7 |
Percentage of Change in the P/T Relationship or Lang’s Index.
0≤ IL<20 | Desert | D |
20≤ IL<40 | Aridzone | Az |
40≤ IL<60 | Humid zone of steppe and savannah | Hzss |
60≤ IL<100 | Humid zone of sparse forest | Hzsf |
100≤ IL<160 | Humid zone of dense forest | Hzdf |
Ila≥160 | Hyperhumid zone of grassland and tundra | Hhzgt |
Climate Zones according to the Lang Index.
Current Classification | Hzss | Hzss | Hzss | Hzss | Hzsf | Hzsf | Hzsf | Hzsf | |||||||||
Classification by the Year of 2080 | Hzss * | Hzss * | Hzss * | Hzss * | Hzsf * | Hzsf * | Hzss | Hzss | |||||||||
Current Classification | Hzsf | Hzsf | Hzsf | Hzsf | Hzss | Hzss | Hzss | Hzss | |||||||||
Classification by the Year of 2080 | Hzsf * | Hzsf * | Hzss | Hzss | Hzss * | Hzss * | Az | Az |
Change in the Classification of Climate Zones in the Gulf of Mexico.
As it can be observed, there is a general tendency to change from more humid climate zones to less humid climate zones in the different hydrological-administrative regions, and this could have transcendental implications regarding change in the natural vegetal coverage, with the consequent effects on the various extant biotic-physical elements, namely the floristic, fauna, and ecosystem structures, which might undergo relevant transformations. Likewise, in the future the predominating systems of agricultural production could be affected.
Moreover, we find that in region XII there could be a slight rise in water availability, as projected by model GFDLCM2.0 for scenarios A2 and B2. As for the other scenarios, they display significant reductions nonetheless, as time goes by in all the Gulf of Mexico’s regions. Such decreases exacerbate the existing conditions as regards the degree of pressure on hydric resources, especially when considerable increases in the extraction of and demand for the hydric resource are expected in the future (Ospina-Noreña., et al, 2010).
On the other hand, Table 10 presents the results obtained via models GFDLCM2.0 and MPIECH-5 with respect to the projections about the degree of pressure on hydric resources in the Gulf of Mexico’s hydrological-administrative regions. By looking at the results of model MPIECH-5, scenario A2, we can observe that in region XII the degree of pressure, which in 2010 was of 5.0%, would rise to 19.2% in 2030 and 24.3% in 2080. Such results presuppose that the demand for water projected for 2030 would remain the same until 2080 it goes without saying, the rise in the degree of pressure could be much higher than is reported in this study, and its final value will depend on whether the efficiency of hydraulic systems improves and the right policies are adopted concerning the sustainable management of hydric resources in the hydrological-administrative regions under scrutiny.
It is worth stressing that even though there might be slight increases in water availability, as projected by model GFDLCM2.0 for scenarios A2 and B2 in region XII (see Table 7), when considering the projections about the demand for water, the degree of pressure would go from 4.7% in 2010 to 17% by 2080 for the same scenarios. In each of the cases it is noticeable that region IX is the most affected, attaining a degree of pressure that would go from 29.2% by 2080, as projected by model MPIECH-5, scenario B2, to 32.2%, according to model GFDLCM20, scenario A2.
2010 | 22.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 5.0 | 22.3 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 5.1 |
2030* | 29.3 | 19.4 | 13.7 | 19.2 | 27.7 | 19.0 | 13.4 | 18.8 |
2080 | 31.7 | 21.8 | 18.5 | 24.3 | 29.2 | 20.6 | 16.2 | 22.0 |
2010 | 22.6 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 4.7 | 22.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 4.9 |
2030* | 29.4 | 18.9 | 12.4 | 17.0 | 27.8 | 18.6 | 12.4 | 17.1 |
2080 | 32.2 | 20.2 | 13.5 | 16.8 | 29.5 | 19.5 | 13.2 | 17.1 |
Projections about the Degree of Pressure on the Hydric Resources, according to Models MPIECH-5 and GFDLCM2.0, Scenarios A2 and B2.
The Attached Document II illustrates the evolution undergone by the degree of pressure for model MPIECH-5, scenario A2, in each one of the Gulf of Mexico’s regions, keeping in mind that in 2000 regions IX, X, XI, and XII showed a pressure degree of 21.4%, 3.8%, 1.2%, and 4.9%, respectively. For this model in particular, it is clear that in the year 2000 regions X, XI, and XII proved to have a scarce degree of pressure, whereas region IX presented a middle-strong degree of 21.4%. By 2030 the same regions (X, XI, and XII), according to the projections offered in Table 10, will approximately have a moderate degree of pressure of 19%, 14%, and 19%, respectively, and region IX will keep facing a middle-strong degree, equal to 29%. By 2080, regions X and XII will reach a middle-strong degree of pressure; region XI will continue to have a moderate degree, though reaching the upper limit (according to the ranges presented in the Attached Document II), and region IX will retain its category of middle-strong pressure, though it will come ever closer to the upper limit and could well enter the strong degree of pressure (>40%) after 2080.
If this study employed the software application known as WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning), that was because it allows the user to make projections and simulations of the supply/demand relationship in the hydric resource and to undertake the respective analyses; thus, it becomes possible to determine the core facets of such relationship, such as: unmet demand, demand coverage, requirements of the offer, delivered supply, increased demand, and index of pressure on the resource, among others. In this way, it is feasible to generate the elements required for the well-ordered utilization and management of the basin’s hydric resources and to develop adaptive strategies vis-à-vis the potential climate changes (Sánchez-Torres., et al, 2011).
Once the projections for the climatic variables and the Lang Index (P/T) were set, we generated climate change scenarios by means of such relationship, thereby determining the type of year, which subsequently was applied in the WEAP model. In doing so, we couldn’t overlook that going from the index’s present condition to the lower limit would entail getting closer to drier zones each time, and vice versa when being closer to the upper limit (see Tables 4 and 8), so the following categories were established: reduction or increase of the current Lang Index (IL) up to 5%, normal year; reduction between 5.1 and 10%, dry year; reduction higher than 10%, very dry year; increase between 5.1 and 10%, humid year; increase higher than 10%, very humid year.
Table 11 shows the type of year projected every 10 years for the Guayalejo-Tamesí River Basin during the periods of 2010-2039 and 2040-2069, for models GFDLCM2.0 and MPIECH-5, for scenarios A2 and B2, respectively, taking into account the P/T relation and the aforementioned criteria.
Considering the conditions detailed in Table 11, and regardless of the fact that through the WEAP program it is possible to get a wide variety of results concerning the supply/demand relation of the hydric resource in one region, this chapter makes specific reference to the unmet demands for water in the irrigation districts inside the Guayalejo-Tamesí River Basin.
2010 | 25.2 | 811.4 | 32.2 | -2.7 | Normal | 25.2 | 819.5 | 32.5 | -1.8 | Normal |
2020 | 25.3 | 790.6 | 31.3 | -5.4 | Dry | 25.4 | 817.2 | 32.2 | -2.7 | Normal |
2030 | 25.4 | 773.0 | 30.4 | -8.0 | Dry | 25.5 | 813.6 | 31.9 | -3.6 | Normal |
2039 | 25.6 | 764.1 | 29.9 | -9.6 | Dry | 25.7 | 810.1 | 31.6 | -4.6 | Normal |
2040 | 25.6 | 763.2 | 29.8 | -9.8 | Dry | 25.7 | 809.7 | 31.5 | -4.7 | Normal |
2050 | 25.8 | 755.4 | 29.3 | -11.5 | Very dry | 25.9 | 807.7 | 31.2 | -5.5 | Dry |
2060 | 26.1 | 753.7 | 28.9 | -12.6 | Very dry | 26.0 | 804.9 | 31.0 | -6.4 | Dry |
2069 | 26.4 | 754.5 | 28.6 | -13.4 | Very dry | 26.2 | 802.8 | 30.7 | -7.1 | Dry |
meaT | PCP | P/T | % Change | Type of Year | meaT | PCP | P/T | % Change | Type of Year | |
2010 | 25.4 | 807.7 | 31.9 | -3.7 | Normal | 25.4 | 816.1 | 32.2 | -2.7 | Normal |
2020 | 25.5 | 784.4 | 30.7 | -7.0 | Dry | 25.6 | 811.7 | 31.7 | -4.1 | Normal |
2030 | 25.8 | 763.7 | 29.7 | -10.3 | Very dry | 25.8 | 806.0 | 31.2 | -5.6 | Dry |
2039 | 26.0 | 751.9 | 28.9 | -12.6 | Very dry | 26.0 | 800.6 | 30.8 | -7.0 | Dry |
2040 | 26.1 | 750.7 | 28.8 | -12.9 | Very dry | 26.1 | 799.9 | 30.7 | -7.1 | Dry |
2050 | 26.4 | 739.5 | 28.0 | -15.3 | Very dry | 26.3 | 795.8 | 30.3 | -8.5 | Dry |
2060 | 26.8 | 734.3 | 27.4 | -17.1 | Very dry | 26.5 | 790.8 | 29.8 | -9.9 | Dry |
2069 | 27.2 | 731.9 | 26.9 | -18.6 | Very dry | 26.8 | 786.7 | 29.4 | -11.0 | Very dry |
Type of Year Projected, Models GFDLCM2.0 and MPIECH-5, Periods of 2010-2039 and 2040-2069.
Table 12 summarizes the results for the demand for water that has been unmet annually in the irrigation districts (ID) inside the Guayalejo-Tamesí River Basin; it is expressed in millions of m3 and measured every ten years for the period of 2010-2069.
GFDLCM2.0-A2 | 539.36 | 546.91 | 580.08 | 580.08 | 592.22 | 593.83 | 3,432.48 |
GFDLCM2.0-B2 | 539.36 | 539.36 | 539.36 | 539.36 | 563.63 | 580.08 | 3,301.15 |
MPIECH-5-A2 | 539.36 | 561.47 | 581.43 | 593.83 | 593.83 | 593.83 | 3,463.76 |
MPIECH-5-B2 | 539.36 | 539.36 | 555.54 | 580.08 | 580.08 | 580.08 | 3,374.50 |
GFDLCM2.0-A2 | 94.45 | 95.77 | 101.58 | 101.58 | 103.70 | 103.99 | 601.06 |
GFDLCM2.0-B2 | 94.45 | 94.45 | 94.45 | 94.45 | 98.70 | 101.58 | 578.06 |
MPIECH-5-A2 | 94.45 | 98.32 | 101.81 | 103.99 | 103.99 | 103.99 | 606.53 |
MPIECH-5-B2 | 94.45 | 94.45 | 97.28 | 101.58 | 101.58 | 101.58 | 590.90 |
GFDLCM2.0-A2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
GFDLCM2.0-B2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
MPIECH-5-A2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
MPIECH-5-B2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
GFDLCM2.0-A2 | 9.82 | 29.19 | 15.59 | 13.68 | 27.01 | 32.98 | 128.26 |
GFDLCM2.0-B2 | 9.82 | 28.79 | 14.49 | 12.72 | 25.71 | 32.22 | 123.74 |
MPIECH-5-A2 | 9.82 | 29.97 | 15.62 | 14.00 | 27.08 | 32.98 | 129.48 |
MPIECH-5-B2 | 9.82 | 28.79 | 14.93 | 13.68 | 26.46 | 32.22 | 125.88 |
GFDLCM2.0-A2 | 15.10 | 40.96 | 24.92 | 21.67 | 37.03 | 45.27 | 184.95 |
GFDLCM2.0-B2 | 15.10 | 40.39 | 23.17 | 20.15 | 35.25 | 44.22 | 178.28 |
MPIECH-5-A2 | 15.10 | 42.05 | 24.98 | 22.18 | 37.14 | 45.27 | 186.72 |
MPIECH-5-B2 | 15.10 | 40.39 | 23.87 | 21.67 | 36.28 | 44.22 | 181.53 |
GFDLCM2.0-A2 | 0.00 | 9.69 | 10.35 | 10.17 | 10.45 | 10.53 | 51.19 |
GFDLCM2.0-B2 | 0.00 | 9.56 | 9.62 | 9.45 | 9.95 | 10.29 | 48.87 |
MPIECH-5-A2 | 0.00 | 9.95 | 10.37 | 10.41 | 10.48 | 10.53 | 51.74 |
MPIECH-5-B2 | 0.00 | 9.56 | 9.91 | 10.17 | 10.24 | 10.29 | 50.16 |
GFDLCM2.0-A2 | 0.00 | 11.61 | 12.39 | 12.17 | 12.52 | 12.61 | 61.29 |
GFDLCM2.0-B2 | 0.00 | 11.45 | 11.52 | 11.32 | 11.91 | 12.31 | 58.50 |
MPIECH-5-A2 | 0.00 | 11.91 | 12.41 | 12.46 | 12.55 | 12.61 | 61.95 |
MPIECH-5-B2 | 0.00 | 11.45 | 11.86 | 12.17 | 12.26 | 12.31 | 60.05 |
Annual Demand for Water that Is Unmet in the Irrigation Districts inside the Guayalejo-Tamesí River Basin.
Based on these results, we can conclude that it is under the climate conditions obtained through model GFDLCM2.0-B2 where the coverage of the demand for water in the aforementioned river basin reaches the highest percentages; or, to put it differently, among the projected climate conditions to meet the demand for water in that basin, the least adverse correspond to those obtained by model GFDLCM2.0-B2. On the other hand, the most unfavorable projections about the same conditions correspond to model MPIECH-5-A2.
It is also noticeable that the most adverse conditions to meet that demand belong to the irrigation district Xicoténcatl 029; as a means to illustrate this, Figure 1 shows the projections on the unmet demand for the same district, according to the different models (million cubic meters [MCM] are used).
Unmet Demand for Water.
As this figure shows, scenario MPIECH-5-A2 presents the most unfavorable conditions and the fastest changes with regard to the unmet demand for water. On the other hand, scenarios B2 project less drastic changes with less immediate effects.
Given that model WEAP enables the user to incorporate a limitless series of scenarios within the calculus process, we decided to analyze several scenarios in which a number of changes are contemplated as adaptive measures to be possibly taken; the scenarios were:
Base scenario (BS): It deems it advisable to continue operating with the system of water rights and hydraulic infrastructure as it has been applied so far, overlooking any adaptive measure vis-à-vis climate change;
Irrigating-technification scenario (ITS): It values the gradual introduction of some kind of irrigating technification (by dripping, by aspersion, etc.) that leads to the optimization of the water volumes in concession for agricultural use;
Irrigating-technification scenario plus changing of the crops (ITS+CC): It entails the gradual introduction of irrigating technification plus a shift from having highly water-demanding crops to having moderate-demanding ones, such as Sorghum, Soy, Safflower or Grass species;
Irrigating-technification scenario plus a reduction of the cultivation areas (ITS+RCA): It poses the gradual introduction of the irrigating technification plus the gradual diminution of the cultivation areas to be irrigated.
Table 13 summarizes the results (expressed in percentages) concerning the average demand for water that is met monthly throughout the period in the irrigation districts, according to model MPIECH and scenario A2, and taking into account the adaptive measures that are proposed.
Xicoténcatl 029 | 5.0 | 15.7 | 16.3 | 35.8 |
Río Frío | 50.9 | 88.6 | 90.4 | 89.3 |
San Lorenzo | 91.0 | 91.0 | 91.0 | 91.0 |
002 Mante Margen Izquierda | 51.9 | 79.3 | 81.3 | 80.4 |
002 Mante Margen Derecha | 41.1 | 57.1 | 58.3 | 63.2 |
Unidad de Riego 1 Las Ánimas | 87.6 | 91.0 | 91.0 | 91.0 |
Unidad de Riego 2 Las Ánimas | 87.6 | 91.0 | 91.0 | 91.0 |
Results of the Adaptive Measures vis-à-vis Climate Change in the Irrigation Districts, Model MPIECH-5-A2.
It can be inferred from this information that the volumes of water in concession are higher than the natural offer of the hydric resource in the area under study. Such conclusion finds support in the fact that, even when the adaptive measures vis-à-vis climate change are considered, the levels of efficiency attained for the coverage of water demand keep being quite low indeed.
As mentioned earlier, the two models that are most adverse for the main objective and purpose of capturing rainwater for irrigation would be the CCCMA-31 and the CSIRO-30, which can be observed in Figures 2 and 3, where the projections about precipitation according to different models and under scenarios A2 and B2 are presented.
Projections about Precipitation according to Different Models, Scenarios A2.
Projections about Precipitation according to Different Models, Scenarios B2.
Table 14 shows the findings of models CSIRO-30, CCCMA-31, UKHADGEM, and MPIECH-5 under scenarios A2, which are the most negative for rainwater collection; the periodicity is of 10 years, with stations December, January, February (DJF), March, April, May (MAM), June, July, August (JJA), September, October, November (SON); likewise, the weighted average scenario is proposed (Table 15).
CCCMA-31_A2 | |||||||||
2020 | -3.5 | -3.2 | -7.9 | 0.91 | 28.3 | 56.4 | 272.2 | 123.5 | 480.5 |
2030 | -4.7 | -4.7 | -12.6 | 0.08 | 28.0 | 55.5 | 258.5 | 122.5 | 464.5 |
2040 | -6.6 | -6.6 | -17.5 | -0.65 | 27.5 | 54.4 | 243.9 | 121.6 | 447.4 |
2050 | -6.3 | -7.6 | -22.4 | -0.24 | 27.5 | 53.8 | 229.3 | 122.1 | 432.8 |
2060 | -5.1 | -8.4 | -27.5 | 0.57 | 27.9 | 53.4 | 214.3 | 123.1 | 418.7 |
Weighted Factor | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | |||||
2020 | -3.9 | 2.5 | -5.0 | -1.8 | 28.2 | 59.7 | 280.7 | 120.2 | 488.8 |
2030 | -5.1 | 3.6 | -8.47 | -3.9 | 27.9 | 60.3 | 270.8 | 117.6 | 476.6 |
2040 | -7.2 | 4.6 | -11.9 | -6.0 | 27.3 | 60.9 | 260.5 | 115.1 | 463.7 |
2050 | -7.0 | 6.6 | -15.2 | -7.1 | 27.3 | 62.1 | 250.5 | 113.8 | 453.7 |
2060 | -6.1 | 9.1 | -18.7 | -7.8 | 27.6 | 63.5 | 240.2 | 112.8 | 444.2 |
Weighted Factor | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | |||||
2020 | -13.7 | -3.6 | -2.9 | 1.5 | 25.4 | 56.1 | 287.1 | 124.3 | 492.8 |
2030 | -19.5 | -5.3 | -5.2 | 1.0 | 23.7 | 55.1 | 280.2 | 123.6 | 482.6 |
2040 | -26.5 | -7.4 | -7.6 | 0.5 | 21.6 | 53.9 | 273.1 | 123.1 | 471.7 |
2050 | -31.6 | -8.6 | -9.8 | 1.3 | 20.1 | 53.2 | 266.5 | 124.0 | 463.8 |
2060 | -36.2 | -9.6 | -12.1 | 2.4 | 18.8 | 52.6 | 259.8 | 125.4 | 456.6 |
Weighted Factor | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |||||
2020 | -5.7 | -7.1 | -0.7 | 4.9 | 27.7 | 54.1 | 293.5 | 128.4 | 503.6 |
2030 | -7.8 | -10.4 | -2.1 | 5.8 | 27.1 | 52.2 | 289.5 | 129.6 | 498.3 |
2040 | -10.7 | -14.3 | -3.4 | 7.1 | 26.2 | 49.9 | 285.6 | 131.1 | 492.9 |
2050 | -11.5 | -17.4 | -4.4 | 9.6 | 26.0 | 48.1 | 282.5 | 134.2 | 490.8 |
2060 | -11.6 | -20.3 | -5.5 | 12.7 | 26.0 | 46.4 | 279.4 | 137.9 | 489.8 |
Weighted Factor | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
Change of Stationary Front.
Weighted Average (WA) | ||||||||||
2020 | 26.9 | 55.7 | 279.9 | 122.8 | 485.4 | -2.4 | -2.5 | -15.7 | 0.4 | -20.3 |
2030 | 26.0 | 54.5 | 269.6 | 121.5 | 471.6 | -3.4 | -3.7 | -25.9 | -0.9 | -34.0 |
2040 | 24.7 | 53.1 | 258.9 | 120.2 | 457.0 | -4.7 | -5.1 | -36.7 | -2.2 | -48.7 |
2050 | 24.1 | 52.2 | 248.5 | 120.4 | 445.0 | -5.3 | -6.1 | -47.1 | -2.1 | -60.6 |
2060 | 23.6 | 51.4 | 237.7 | 120.9 | 433.6 | -5.8 | -6.8 | -57.9 | -1.5 | -72.0 |
Change of Stationary Front, Weighted Average Scenario.
In this case the calculation of the weighted average was based on the station, according to the reduction attained by 2060; thus, for instance, for the DJF station the model that showed the highest reduction was the UKHADGEM-A2, so it was assigned the value of 4 (weighted factor), followed by models MPIECH-5-A2, CSIRO-30-A2, and CCCMA-31-A2, which were assigned the values of 3, 2, and 1, respectively. In this way, the weighted average scenario for the DJF station is built as follows:
WA(DJF) = (UKHADGEM-A2(DJF)*4 + MPIECH-5-A2(DFJ)*3 + CSIRO-30-A2(DFJ)*2 + CCCMA-31-A2(DJF)*1)/10
It is noticeable that in the calculus made for the weighted average the biggest reduction happens in summer (JJA), reaching a reduction of 19.6% as it goes from 295.6 mm (the current value) to 237.7 mm by 2060, i.e., 57.9 mm less in this station; by adding the reduction in all of the stations, we would get 72.0 mm, that is, 14.2% annually, which implies going from 505.6 mm at present to 433.6 mm by 2060.
After considering such amounts, it becomes manifest that there would have to be an annual reduction of 720 m3/ha or 7,200 m3 by 2060 in the project’s influential area which equaled 10 ha – a loss concentrated mainly in station JJA that would attain the value of 579 m3/ha, which would amount to a decrease in water availability of 5,790m3 or 5,790,000 lt in the project’s influential area.
In view of these results, it is recommended to put into effect and develop to a substantial degree programs of infrastructural design, integral management, and efficient use of hydric resources, together with the setting of appropriate calendars for irrigation that truly correspond to the species to be sown; the minimum and the maximum of available water, as well as the maximum reduction as projected by the climate change scenarios, must be taken into account. In other words, great attention should be paid to the results obtained in stations JJA and DJF, aside from assessing especially the scenario designated as the weighted average (Figure 4).
Projection of Stationary Precipitation, Weighted Average Scenario.
Table 16 provides the monthly results found with the models that project more extreme changes; these values can also bring support to the programs of infrastructural design, integral management, and efficient use of hydric resources.
Month | Current Precipitation (mm) | CCCMA-31-A2 | CSIRO-30-A2 | ||||||
2030 | 2060 | 2030 | 2060 | ||||||
Change (%) | mm | Change (%) | mm | Change (%) | mm | Change (%) | mm | ||
January | 13.3 | -5.2 | 12.6 | -2.2 | 13.0 | 19.6 | 15.9 | 49.8 | 20.0 |
February | 6.2 | -2.1 | 6.1 | -4.8 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.4 | ||
March | 6.9 | -3.6 | 6.6 | -11.3 | 6.1 | 0.3 | 6.9 | -3.1 | 6.6 |
April | 15.4 | 11.6 | 8.2 | 26.3 | 19.4 | 59.7 | 24.5 | ||
May | 36.0 | 2.3 | 36.8 | 10.5 | 39.8 | -6.4 | 33.7 | -8.0 | 33.1 |
June | 91.3 | 78.1 | 61.0 | 67.7 | 39.1 | ||||
July | 114.9 | -4.1 | 110.2 | -7.7 | 106.1 | 7.0 | 123.0 | 15.6 | 132.9 |
August | 89.4 | 72.9 | 53.2 | -1.3 | 88.3 | -4.3 | 85.5 | ||
September | 76.6 | 4.5 | 80.0 | 7.0 | 81.9 | -5.5 | 72.4 | -13.9 | 66.0 |
October | 36.4 | 28.8 | 23.3 | 32.4 | 30.7 | ||||
November | 9.4 | 22.9 | 11.6 | 43.0 | 13.5 | 11.9 | 10.5 | 19.8 | 11.3 |
December | 9.8 | -4.7 | 9.4 | -4.2 | 9.4 | 8.1 | 6.8 | ||
Annual (mm) | 505.6 | 464.9 | 421.3 | 484.2 | 461.9 | ||||
Change (mm) | -40.7 | -84.3 | -21.5 | -43.8 | |||||
Change (%) | 8.1 | 16.7 | 4.2 | 8.7 |
Change of Monthly Precipitation, Models CCCMA-31 and CSIRO-30, Scenario A2.
We can observe in this table that the months with a higher percentage of reduction are, in descending order, April, August, October, and June, respectively, for model CCCMA-31, scenario A2, both for 2030 and 2060, whereas for model CSIRO-30 the months with a higher reduction are, in descending order, June, December, October, and February, respectively.
As the monthly results show, the decrease in annual precipitation could be of 40.7 mm (8.1%) by 2030, according to model CCCMA-31-A2, and 21.5mm (4.2%) according to model CSIRO-30-A2; by 2060 the decrease would be between 84.3 mm (16.7%) and 43.8 mm (8.7%) for models CCCMA-31-A2 and CSIRO-30-A2, respectively.
It is opportune to mention that obtaining monthly averages or totals makes no sense, as the distribution of precipitation doesn’t follow a homogeneous pattern, i.e., the increase or decrease of 100% in a month with scarce precipitation may be insignificant, whereas the increase or decrease of 10% in a month with abounding precipitation can prove to be quite meaningful; thus, for instance, an increase or decrease of 50% in February and June, according to the values of current precipitation presented in Table 16, would correspond to 3.1 mm and 57.45 mm, respectively, the first one of which may be taken it to be insignificant and the second as significant.
Due to the monthly analyses of the different models, it is highly likely that the uncertainty regarding the percentage of monthly variation in precipitation will grow, insofar as there will be few coincidences and a dearth of consistency as far as the deviations’ magnitude and direction are concerned; therefore, we can recommend too highly the utilization of the findings obtained through the analyses by station: Winter (DJF), Spring (MAM), Summer (JJA), and Autumn (SON) in the weighted average scenario, embodying as they do, worthy input for the task of planning all the aspects and analyzing all the variables required for the implementation of the project devoted to rainwater collection.
Aside from the changes in the average conditions, it is recommended to keep in mind the effects of extreme events, which seem to be steadily growing while their magnitude rises: such happenings may well foster avenues that run counter to the aims of the project, causing damage in the infrastructure’s solidity and endurance as well as in the cultivation areas.
The climatic-hydrological projections presented in Table 6 for the Sinú-Caribe River Basin point to certain changes and adverse effects on the volume that the Urrá1 Dam keeps in storage and, of course, on the generation of electric energy (Table 17, Figure 5a), as well as on the supply/demand relation of the whole basin.
By looking at the values of the first column (changes concerning the reference scenario), it becomes clear that all the models and scenarios indicate there is a reduction in the generation of electric energy that goes from 0.7% to 35.2%, while in the second column (changes concerning the maximum generation capacity) all the scenarios, including the reference scenario, indicate decreases with a range of 15.4% to 45.5%. The diminution in the Sinú River’s flow contribution to the Urrá 1 Reservoir is not only directly linked to the generation of electric energy (Figure 5a) but also to the volume kept in storage by the dam (Figure 5b).
On the other hand, taking into account the demand for the hydric resource in the domestic, industrial (agricultural and livestock), and commercial realms in 28 sites located inside the basin, we find that currently the required offer (190.1 MCM) is approximately equivalent to the supply delivered at present. However, as time goes on, all the scenarios project supplies lower than the required offer: at the end of the period of 2039 the delivered supply is to be between 402.3-619.4 MCM, depending on the climate scenario under analysis, with the weighted average pointing to a supply of 563.3 MCM (Figure 6); in the meantime, the requested offer reaches a value of 636.1 MCM, which suggests a strong pressure on the system and underscores the necessity of putting the hydric resources in the basin in order and under a sensible management.
-0.7 | -16.5 | -2.3 | -12.9 | -5.9 | |
-11.3 | -25.4 | -1.9 | -12.6 | -2.3 | |
-0.8 | -16.5 | -6.9 | -17.0 | -11.8 | |
-13.7 | -27.4 | -7.8 | -17.8 | -13.3 | |
-13.4 | -27.1 | -6.4 | -16.6 | -11.3 | |
-35.2 | -45.5 | -29.7 | -37.3 | -34.9 | |
-25.9 | -37.7 | -20.1 | -28.8 | -23.8 | |
-2.9 | -18.3 | -10.5 | -20.2 | -14.2 | |
-18.8 | |||||
Referenced or Current (Average Values) | 0.0 | -15.9 | 340.3 m3/s (in the dam) 527.7 m3/s (in all the basin) |
Changes in the Percentage of Electric Generation, the Storage Volume in the Dam, and the Flow.
Reduction (expressed in %) for the Period of 2010-2039. a) Electric Generation. b) Storage Volume in the Dam.
The Demand for the Hydric Resource in the Basin: An Account of the Required Offer and the Delivered Supply.
Although the demand (540.7 to 2039 MCM) lies below the delivered supply (563.3 MCM), it is worth noticing that the requests posed by each one of the sectors and the 28 points in demand are not met in 100%, inasmuch as such appeals do not include losses in the systems, the reutilization of water in the processes or the management in the different petitionary locations, so the required offer (631.1 MCM) is much higher, as can be observed in that figure.
In this scenario the annual reduction of the average flow in the basin, as related to the present one, would be of 18.8%, as Table 17 shows – note that for this calculation there are underlying scenarios which estimate reductions as high as 35%, aside from the fact that for its analysis it only contemplates the period of 2010-2039, the estimates for the period of 2040-2069 being more severe. Such reductions must be analyzed with great care, due to the implications they could have for the region in question, since reports from the Latin American Development Bank (Corporación Andina de Fomento [CAF, 2000] indicate that in past events of what is designated as “El Niño” (1997-1998) the reductions in the flow of River Sinú have gone up to 33%, thus carrying deeply adverse consequences such as great losses in the agricultural production and other economic sectors, an increase in the demand for water and energy, the costs of resources for consumers, etc.
The effects of climate change on water resources are expected to bring multiple impacts over various sectors, whose consequences would be difficult to prevent completely and therefore to manage effectively. Therefore, from a policy perspective, policymakers are interested in identifying how to increase the capacity of organization and society to integrate uncertainty and complexity of climate change adaptation cross-sectorally. Along with water modeling tools and scenario development, described earlier in this chapter, there are other approaches to the management of water resources in situations of high uncertainty, involving adaptation and participation.
Participatory water management is the involvement of stakeholders, who would not normally be involved, in different aspects of the management of their water resources. There are many different participatory methods that can be applied to increase such involvement (see Hare., et al, 2006). The participation of a wide range of stakeholders in management activities has been seen as important for supporting the assessment of situations of high uncertainty, from a cross-sectoral, integrated perspective (Rotmans, 1998). It has been promoted as a way of achieving societal acceptance of water management decisions (Mostert, 2003) which is of importance in those increasing cases where enhancing the capacity of local authorities, stakeholders, and interested groups to adopt and support approaches for implementing climate change actions is vital. The latter is becoming a critical policy issue (Brown., et al, 2010).
Participation is also being promoted actively for supporting the development of useful models and scenarios (Rotmans, 1998, Pahl-Wostl, 2002, Haag, 2001) used in resource management – for the purposes of increasing their degree of sectoral integration, quality, their validity, acceptance and use. This approach is called participatory modelling (see Hare (2011)) for an overview of the field within the water management sector). Participation is in addition viewed by researchers and policy makers as a means of bridging the policy-science-interface gap, leading to the improved use of research products in the management sector (e.g., Borowski and Hare (2007)). Those advocating a purely model-based approach to supporting adaptation in water resources management should take note of the considerable policy-science interface obstacles that exist to the water-sector adopting and using models for decision-making (see Borowski and Hare (2007), Mysiak., et al (2008), Webler., et al (2011)).
In Europe, the promotion of participatory water management is primarily driven by academia (see for example Ridder., et al (2005)) and a very favourable institutional enabling environment created by the EU Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC; WFD). Article 14 (see EU (2002)) of the latter, prescribes minimum obligatory levels of stakeholder participation in the development of surface water quality management plans throughout the member countries of the union. It also seeks to encourage quite high levels of participation. The levels of participation (see Mostert (2003)) range from low level participation involving simply informing stakeholders and consulting them on already designed plans, to actively involving them in planning and, at an even higher level, in decision-making. The WFD prescribes the first two and seeks to encourage the decision-makers to actively involve stakeholders in planning. Promoting participation in actual final decision-making is not considered by the WFD, and is not common in European water management.
The WFD and associated EU research projects developing experimental high-level participatory water management processes for it (e.g. EU FP7 NeWater project – (Moellenkamp., et al, 2010); EU FP7 AquaStress project – (Daniell., et al, 2010)) have provided a decade-long experiment in the potential uptake of participation as a serious tool of use in the water management sector. To date, the uptake of active forms of participation (i.e. going beyond informing and consulting stakeholders) has been poor outside of research-driven processes, despite the institutional enabling environment of the WFD, and despite the financial and human resources being provided by the EU through the research sector to support this uptake. The reasons for this are manifold (see, for example, the TRUST project – (Krywkow., et al, 2007)). As Hare (2011) reports, there is often a lack of personnel, skills and organizational capacities to implement such active and intensive levels of participation with multiple stakeholder groups. The statutory and reward incentives of water management also often work against managers risking their reputations and perhaps jobs on developing participatory processes that might get out of control or slow down implementation of vital infrastructure projects, in cases where funding is time-dependent (op. cit). Videira., et al (2006) also suggest that the low level of prescribed participation in the WFD itself restricts the incentives for water managers to go beyond what is prescribed – why risk your job etc., when higher levels are not prescribed? Finally, as Borowski and Hare (2007) identified in their research – stakeholders - practitioners, policymakers and decision-makers - often do not have the time to participate in what will normally be time-intensive processes. If the water managers are not inclined to adopt high levels of participatory processes outside a research project, and stakeholders may often not have enough time, active, high levels of participation within the water management sector remains an aspiration.
This remains a critical problem for approaches to managing uncertainty in the face of climate change, such as adaptive management (Mysiak., et al, 2010) and adaptive governance (Huitema., et al, 2009) in which active stakeholder participation is a central component. Fortunately, as Hare (2011) suggests, these approaches, when considered from the perspective of niches, also contain a potential solution to the dilemma, which allows both adaptation and participation to be taken up and implemented. This solution will be returned to at the end of the chapter. First it is important to discuss adaptive management and adaptive governance and their role in managing water resources in times of climate change.
Previous experiences using a participatory water management approach keep being very valuable when trying to mainstreaming climate change adaptation into water resources management. Mainstreaming climate change adaptation is understood as a process of cross-sectoral integration of policy through common policy-making on adaptation which facilitate changes in socio-economic systems and governance regimes, aiming at dealing with uncertainty and capturing the opportunities for synergistic results in terms of increased adaptive capacity and lower vulnerability. However, in order to be able to continually maintain the experience needed to cope with uncertainty and change, the integration of actions and policies for water management needs to increase its own adaptive capacity, too. Various experiences from the literature offer valuable examples on the way in which an adaptive approach has provided a systematic perspective that lead a management system to undertake the necessary adjustments in its structure, function, and performance under varying conditions (Knieper., et al, 2010, Pahl-Wostl., et al, 2010, Schlϋter., et al, 2010). Therefore, such a system is better able to deal with complexity and increasing uncertainty.
In a similar vein, Peña del Valle et al, (in submission) have argued that mainstreaming climate change adaptation could succeed in all sectors´ processes if the very practice of mainstreaming climate change adaptation is conceived and undertaken under an adaptive approach. Thus, according to the authors, the use of a conceptual framework based on knowledge from the fields of adaptive water resources management and adaptive governance can help to identify steps to increase the adaptive capacity of managerial and governance regimes. Such increases can be charted along a learning pathway composed of learning cycles, operationalised in terms of 1st, 2nd, and 3rd loop learning activities. These, impact on four specific types of capacities, which are central to a social system to adapt. These are: 1) capacities for multi-stakeholder involvement, 2) integrated analysis, 3) experimentation, and 4) flexible institutions.
Multi-stakeholders involvement: Bringing multi-stakeholders and organizations to work together is central in the process of mainstreaming climate change adaptation through a cross-sectoral perspective (Peña del Valle et al, in submission). By identifying common issues and material inter-linkages between each others’ sectors and, by sharing particular concerns and interest, stakeholders are more able to increase their awareness of other sector´s issues, along with their constrictions and potentials. This process, however, has to be supported by adequate institutions, which can undertake several adjustments in their practice definition, role´s assignment, as well as in their interactions and procedures. It is thought that such actions would result in moving from one decision-making authority to a broader involvement of different stakeholders into the formulation of flexible climate change adaptation policy.
Integrated information and analysis: The extent to which climate change adaptation can match its goals with other policy relevant areas, such as poverty, development, energy security, and health may depend on to what extent other sector’s processes and perspectives convey with those of strategic planning and administrative procedures. This requires building an integrated scheme of knowledge and shared information systems, which facilitates the identification of overlapping areas and gaps. Stakeholders can advance together in building up an comprehensive analysis that includes different perspectives, interests, and expected outcomes.
Continuous experimentation in policy-making: Building collective initiatives and common problem-solving solutions may not be sufficient for mainstreaming climate change adaptation all at once given the uncertainty associated with climate change processes. Therefore, it is also necessary to keep up a process of learning. This relates to the notions expressed by various authors, where systems undergo a process of continual reorganization in their goals and methods in order to keep creative, flexible and novel in their approach to problem-solving (Pahl-Wostl and Hare, 2004, Armitage., et al, 2008). In such a way, governance and managerial systems can evolve their knowledge on climate change adaptation, so that they can rapidly respond to a range of different situations and needs, but always linked to current socio-economic treats and vulnerabilities, at various levels.
Flexible institutions: A central outcome of a continuous learning process between stakeholders and organizations to address climate change adaptation is the development of customary institutions to the evolution of more open institutional schemes. This implies, for instance, that societies and organizations are more able to modify the sets of rules that regulate social behaviours, actions and motivations. As organization’s structures become more flexible, they are also more able to admit modifications on a regular basis; decision-making processes are more inclusive and diverse to accommodate uncertainty and continuous disturbance in problem-solving and decision-making practices. In such a way, mainstreaming climate change adaptation can be undertaken under an enabled environment, where processes of social-networking, multi-level governance, continuous feedback facilitate the delivery of useful policy recommendations to climate change adaptation in a timely and effective manner.
Various authors have already shown the benefits of relying on social and societal learning process for improving adaptive water management and, for building adaptive capacity (Pahl-Wostl, 2009, Lebel., et al, 2010) in governance regimes to deal with uncertainty associated with climate change.
The use of learning loops to illustrate progressions in social learning processes has been developed in diverse areas (Armitage., et al, 2008). The single loop refers to a refinement of current methodological pathways and established practices; the double loop involves a redefinition of assumptions and strategies for institutional participation and shared benefits; in the triple loop there is a transformation of underlying values and common regulative and normative frameworks for thinking and action. Thus, it is expected that the evolution of the learning process in stages or learning-loops would help to identify the sort of capacities and processes that support moving a management regime through the different stages of learning and towards overcoming the barriers to mainstreaming.
As Peña del Valle et al (in submission) commented, multi-stakeholder involvement, a key capacity for adaptive management, can be seen as a key capacity for mainstreaming, since having this capacity facilitates the involvement of cross-sectoral policy makers in integrated policy development for adaptation. In a mainstreaming context therefore, the single loop learning activity for strengthening multi-stakeholder involvement would be to “bring together cross-sectoral policy makers to share their adaptation plans” at regular time intervals. There is no compunction for the policy makers to act upon what they learn at such meetings, but it can strengthen the level of multi-stakeholder involvement in planning, albeit indirectly, if what is learned by each policy maker about others’ plans is made use of in their own planning. The double loop learning activity, on the other hand, would “bring the policy makers together to create and identify common goals for adaptation planning”. The desired outcome would be a stronger multi-stakeholder involvement in the plans of each policy sector in terms of there now existing shared goals to be the used (voluntarily) as the basis of any planning. The triple loop learning activity, finally, would be for the policy makers to work together to agree on the “creation of new institutions prescribing how each policy sector shall work together to develop joint policy on adaptation”.
From the approaches developed above, participatory process of policy integration across sectors can facilitate changes in socio-economic systems and governance regimes. In the field of adaptive water management this would also imply to count with a handy approach to continuously dealing with uncertainty and capturing the opportunities for synergistic results in terms of increased adaptive capacity and lower vulnerability.
Adaptive management and governance can also provide an environment in which high levels of participation can be adopted by water managers to properly support them to manage water resources in the face of climate change uncertainty; but only if one gives up on the idea of placing participation at the heart of formal decision-making and planning, whose current institutions provide few incentives to the adopt active levels of participation. The way forward, as Hare (2011) suggests for participatory modelling, is shown by Moellenkamp., et al (2010) who observed that water managers were more willing to accept higher levels of stakeholder involvement if it took place in niches adjacent to the formal planning cycle (see above). Such an “adjacent” niche might manifest itself as a group of stakeholders who actively participate and collaborate in a series of workshops and other activities focused on developing new ideas for management, with the blessing of the decision-maker but with no formal attachment to the planning cycle (e.g. op cit). In this way the planning cycle stays insulated from the risks of failure associated with participation, and participation can thus be taken up by water managers in this controlled environment with little danger. Those niches, in which stakeholders can actively design and experiment with cutting edge management ideas, can then be connected to the learning cycle as part of an adaptive management process, and participation can support adaptation in return: As and when the formal planning process requires new ideas due to a perceived failure in planning, it can turn to the multi-stakeholder participatory process in the learning cycle niche which can then be used to power the type of reflection and adaptation needed for effective adaptive management and governance (see Figure 1, Hare (2011)). The case study in Moellenkamp., et al (2010) is a demonstration of the potential for such niches to impact on the policy cycle if they are set up properly.
As the present chapter illustrates, the changes in magnitude and direction of the climate variables can be expressed in various ways according to the different regions of the world, which makes it necessary to provide models and regional as well as local climate scenarios.
In hydrological modeling it is required to produce a scale-reduced design of global replicas and regional copies, to practice studies and analyses at different levels (i.e., those related to regions, localities, and basins), and to undertake the analysis and management of uncertainty.
From what has been discussed here, it can be concluded that climate change will prove to have negative effects on water availability, which in turn will have deep consequences for different sectors, projects, and activities, among which are found not only irrigation, the generation of electricity, and the collection of rainwater (to which we have made reference in this chapter), but also many others (e.g., the economy and development domains). Therefore, it is indispensable to continue examining and analyzing the effects of climate change on hydrological resources and contributing sets of hydrological modeling.
The authors wish to thank Ingenieros Sin Fronteras México, A.C., and the Instituto Tierra y Cal, A.C., for allowing them to submit the preliminary findings of the project on Rainwater Collection they have been developing.
The protection of settlements and infrastructures by so called protective forests (protection forests) against gravitational and hydrological natural hazards is of particular relevance in the mountain areas of Europe, as they are densely populated and used intensively by the population of other regions for recreation [1]. Therefore, special legal regulations and public funds have been introduced to maintain and improve the protective effects of forests in many European countries [2, 3]. The protective effects of forests are also addressed in literature by the terms protective function and protective role which are often used synonymously. Brang et al. [4] clearly differentiated the meanings of the terms protective function, potential, and effect of forest (see also chapter [5] of this book).
The term “protective function” refers to the task of forests to protect something of value like people, settlements or infrastructures from the impacts and damage by adverse climate or natural hazards [4, 6]. This task is assigned to forests or to other land use appropriate for afforestation by society, if there is a damage potential to people or assets, and the forest is or will be located on sites where a forest can give rise to mitigation of hazards and climate impacts. The allocation of protective functions to existing or future forests does not consider the present forest conditions and effectiveness in protection but refers to the societal demand for protection by forest due to environmental conditions and public interest as well as to a protective potential on this location. The “protective potential” of a forest is “a protective effect that a forest is likely to have if properly managed” [4]. This capability of forests to prevent or mitigate natural hazards depends on the (prospective) hazard type and intensity, on the location in the process area and the natural growth capacity of the site to produce protective forest structures.
The term “protective effect” refers to the degree of mitigation of hazards by forest [4] which ranges from no or low reduction of hazard frequencies and/or intensities to total hazard prevention. The term is also used to designate the protective mechanisms which generate the hazard mitigation by interaction of woody vegetation and abiotic components which control environmental processes [6]. The protective effects result from the current forest conditions and in the long-term from the stability of the forest [4]. The term may also imply the reduction of the damage risk to people and assets by forest. However, hazard and damage risk analysis are approaches beyond the determination of the protective effect of the forest including further steps of analysis.
In this context, this chapter will give a short overview of the protective effects of forests against gravitational natural hazards in mountain areas. The overview is based on the presentation of the protective mechanisms provided by woody vegetation and connects them to the effect-related indicators of forest composition and density. Protective effect-related indicators and thresholds have been issued by several European guidelines for protective forest management [7]. The thresholds of the protective effect-related indicators are hazard-related silvicultural targets for forest management on stand-scale and critical values required for hazard risk assessment at stand- and slope-scale. Therefore, we relate knowledge from the literature and hazard observations to these common concepts on protective forests. We limit the presentation to the protective effects of forest against snow avalanches, landslides and rockfall which may be mitigated by forest effectively on slope-scale, whereas the effectiveness of forest in mitigating hydrogeomorphic hazards like (torrential debris) floods is more dependent on the temporal and spatial scale of view as well as on the total share of forest use at the watershed-scale (see chapter [8] of this book).
Forests prevent and mitigate gravitational natural hazards by two mechanisms: 1) they prevent hazard initiation or reduce mass displacements in potential starting zones by the retainment of solid materials on site, and 2) they break down, narrow laterally and eventually limit the propagation of the mass movement [9, 10, 11]. The prevention or limitation of hazard initiations is clearly the most efficient and therefore important protective effect of forest to be considered by forest management. Forests are usually unable to stop large masses of snow, soil, and rock [9]. However, the importance of release prevention in potential starting zones in relation to mass deceleration in possible transit zones by forest is strictly related to the hazard type. Furthermore, the magnitude of the mass movement, the conditions of materials in motion, the distance, and the terrain relief from the starting zone to assets at risk as well as the proportion of the runout zone covered by high and dense enough forest impact hazard propagation.
Avalanches may be classified into canyon avalanches (nowadays, they are called channelized avalanches) and slope avalanches, according to their physiogeographic situation and spatial relation to forest, with many intermediate forms [12]. A canyon avalanche originates on the head of a canyon above the current timberline or in areas of open forests and follows the gorge. Because of the frequent occurrence and damaging effects, the upper flow path is usually free of taller woody vegetation, or only overgrown by bushes, but, dependent on the frequency and intensity of the mass movement and the terrain, the hazard zone may also be stocked by high timber. In case of infrequent high snow accumulation, these situations are difficult in risk management, as the hazard and damage potentials are not obvious due to the condition of the woody vegetation. Slope avalanches occur outside of canyons on steep mountain slopes. As they are mainly covered by high and dense forests, damage to infrastructure by naturally triggered slope avalanches is less frequent in the Alps even in snow rich winters. Snow avalanches which originate in forests are called forest avalanches (Figure 1) [13, 14].
Muddy snow avalanches from forest triggered in march 1988 by rain after 38 cm snowfall within 3 days. Photo: K. Perzl, 1988.
Most avalanches that are perceived in Alpine settlement areas as coming from forested terrain originate from slopes or canyon heads above the current timberline or from currently open areas [15]. Nevertheless, forests on steep mountain slopes should never be considered as areas not prone to avalanche formation [16]. The basic avalanche release susceptibility of forested slopes in the Alps is not evident in hazard and damage statistics, as it is masked by the protective effect of the mainly dense woody vegetation and by artificial snow supporting structures which already have been established at the beginning of the 20th century in forests with high protective functions and low protective effects [7].
A forest cover prevents snow avalanche initiation by stabilizing the snowpack on the ground as a result of these mechanisms: A) reduction of the formation of firm bed surfaces and weak snow layers (crusts, faceted snow, depth and surface hoar) by balancing the radiation and temperature budget of the snowpack, B) disturbance of the stratification of the snowpack and C) reduction of the snow depth by canopy interception of snow precipitation, D) reduction of the accumulation of wind-driven snow by deceleration of wind speed, E) reduction of the formation of basal gliding (ice and wet snow) planes due to the usually high infiltration capacity and roughness of the forest floor, and F) support of the snowpack by stems, snags, stumps, logs and low woody vegetation [13, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22].
The mechanisms A to D are forest canopy effects, and therefore the foliar cover of the forest in winter regulates the snowpack stabilization. However, leafless twigs, branches and stems contribute to the modification of the radiation and temperature regimes of the snowpack as well as to the interception of snowfall. The density and spatial distribution of stems and coarse woody debris, which are the main controllers of the mechanism F, also reduce the formation of weak layers. In addition to soil properties, coarse woody debris, and the understory, all of them influenced by forest composition and density, and finally by forest management, control the mechanism E.
Because of the complex interaction of these mechanisms with snow and terrain characteristics, it is difficult to differ main and minor protective mechanisms and controllers of the protective effect of forests against avalanche release. A forest is largely able to prevent new and old snow avalanche releases except for small loose snow avalanches by the mechanisms A to C. The preconditions for this are a rather dry and cohesive snowpack as well as a sufficient forest canopy cover. A foliated canopy cover by evergreen conifers is most effective but may be substituted by the surface area of branches and stems of deciduous trees and snags. The woody area of the canopy, especially the branchwood surface area, plays an important role in the modification of radiative, thermal, and hydrologic conditions [23]. The similar protective canopy cover observed in both evergreen and deciduous coniferous stands [14] and the little influence of the leaf area on the spatial variability in snow stratigraphy [24] may be an effect of the woody area of the canopy. However, avalanche initiations are observed more frequent in deciduous forests than in evergreen forests and occur under closed deciduous canopies [13, 14, 19], which indicates a limited protective effect of trees without leaves in case of heavy and stormy snowfall or other than cold-dry conditions.
Tree canopies prevent avalanche release when they overtop the snowpack. On steep slopes prone to avalanche formation, young trees and bushes are bent down by the snow load and the pressure of the snowpack. As a result, they can be uprooted, broken and overlaid by weak snow layers and cohesive snow slabs. However, it is not clear and easy to determine how large and tall trees or bushes must be to have a protective effect. This depends on numerous factors such as slope inclination, surface roughness, tree species composition and stand structure, and ultimately also on the risk-analytical assessment basis of possible (design) snow depths. In addition, the protective height and/or diameter of trees likely depends on the density of the woody vegetation. Observations indicate that trees overtop the snow cover when the tree height exceeds the maximum snow height by one to two times [25, 26, 27]. These relationships lead to quite different protective tree heights up to over 5 m, depending on the design snow depths used in risk analysis, as well as to questions on the method and accuracy of stand height and snow depth assessments. These relationships do not directly refer to the avalanche activity. Observations of snow avalanche activity caused by logging indicate a protective height of the woody vegetation of about 2 m [28]. This may be an effect of the increased surface roughness at loggings. The snowpack support by stumps, logs and other terrain roughness features may considerably mask the protective height and density of young growth.
Usually, a canopy cover of upright-growing woody plants with an average height of about 5 m may overtop and shade the snowpack. Hence, they provide the protective effects A to C and F. The recommendations of the European guidelines for protective forest management for the protective stand height and canopy cover differ considerably [7]. These expert-based guidelines from four European countries suggest a range of canopy cover targets from 30 to 70% for a high level of protection which is not defined clearly but may refer to a low release probability (Table 1). Furthermore, the guidelines refer either to the total (TCCP) or to the wintergreen canopy cover percentage (WCCP). Guidelines, which refer to the WCCP, use the total stem density for inferring the protective effect in case of forests with low proportions of evergreen canopies.
Guideline | NaiS | SFP | GSM-N | GSM-S | ISDW | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Level of protec-tion | “high” | “high” | “high” | high | medium | low | no | high | medium | low |
Slope | TCCP | TCCP | WCCP | WCCP | WCCP | WCCP | WCCP | WCCP | WCCP | WCCP |
≥30° | >50% | >50% | >30% | >70% | >30% | >10% | ≤10% | ≥45% | ≥35% | <35% |
≥35° | >50% | >50% | >50% | >70% | >30% | >10% | ≤10% | ≥55% | ≥35% | <35% |
≥40° | >50% | >50% | >70% | >70% | >30% | >10% | ≤10% | ≥65% | ≥35% | <35% |
FNR CC | 22–30% | 0–2% | 0–1% | 0–2% | ||||||
RRW | −40 m | — | −30 m | −30 m | ||||||
FNR all | 43% | 42% | 32% | 6% | — | — | — | 5% | — | — |
Canopy cover targets to prevent avalanche initiation in forests according to the European protective forest management guidelines NaiS [29], SFP [30], GSM-N [31], GSM-S [32] and ISDW [33], and false negative rates of avalanche occurrence and reductions of release widths calculated based on a sample of observed forest avalanches (total sample size 295) (for details see [7]).
TCCP, total canopy cover percentage (all tree species); WCCP, canopy cover percentage of evergreen species; FNR, false negative rate in percent of the sample; “CC” refers to the validation of canopy cover targets, “all” to the combination of all indicators (canopy cover, gap size, stem density); RRW, maximum reduction of slab release width in relation to the non-target (low) canopy cover.
A validation of these targets based on a sample of observed snow avalanche initiations in Alpine forests (total sample size 295) shows a low misclassification of all approaches in terms of false negative rates [7]. The false negative rate (FNR) is the proportion of observed hazard releases that would not have been classified as critical situations based on the forest and site condition according to the criteria of a guideline. The FNRs in the range of 22 to 30% of the approaches using a critical TCCP of 50% are considerably higher than those of the guidelines using the WCCP (0 to 2%) (Table 1). This indicates an overestimation and limited protective effect of leafless canopies, whereas the high targets in terms of the WCCP, ranging from 30 to 70%, clearly underestimate effects of the foliar cover and of the woody area in deciduous stands. 75% of all snow avalanches in the sample initiated on sites with a WCCP smaller than 16%, and initiations under evergreen canopy cover of more than 40 to 60% were rare outliers. Therefore, even a small proportion of evergreen trees can significantly reduce the likelihood of avalanche formation and deciduous trees also provide a reduction of the release width (RRW) in relation to low canopy covers (Table 1).
The comparatively high miss rates (FNR) of assessments based on the total canopy cover are an effect of the presence of deciduous forests in the sample, especially of the high broadleaved forests with small surface roughness [7]. In broadleaved deciduous stands, with a low proportion of evergreen trees and low total stem density, avalanches may initiate even when the canopy is fully closed [13, 14, 34]. This is a result of several limitations of the protective effect of (deciduous) canopies. In some special conditions, the ability of forest to prevent avalanche formation by the mechanisms A to C is reduced. Such conditions are heavy and enduring snowfall at low temperatures without intermittent radiation, (heavy) snowfall followed by rain-on-snow (Figure 1) or strong sudden air temperature rise (Figure 2) [13, 15, 35].
Release of a snow avalanche in a spruce forest triggered by air temperature rise from −12 to 6°C within few hours. The 208 m long avalanche with a vertical drop of 147 m buried a local road. Photo: F. Perzl, 2021.
A cohesionless snow layer or snowpack of fluffy or wet snow outer performs the mechanisms A and B. The mechanics C to D, especially the snow depth reduction by interception effects, become more important. However, snow depth reduction is limited in deciduous forests. In addition, snowpack support by stems (mechanism F) is reduced for both cohesionless and cohesive but heavy and moist snowpack. Supporting the snowpack by upright stems requires contact with the snowpack [19]. Thus, paradoxically, this mechanism is more effective for large snow depths than for small ones [36]. However, in all situations with low effectiveness of the mechanisms A to C, and especially in deciduous forests, the anchoring and therefore an adequate stem density is important to stabilize the snowpack. The protective effect of deciduous forests is more dependent on stem density and surface roughness than clearly connected to the canopy cover [16, 34, 37, 38].
The literature on protective stem densities is based on different analytical approaches and they vary considerably. They refer to different caliper thresholds and mean diameters of the stems at breast height (DBH). Thresholds of protective stem densities are usually related to slope inclination. Approaches based on mechanical calculations show stem densities needed to stabilize the snowpack, for example with an average DBH of 5 cm, from about 2,000 on gentle slopes to more than 10,000 stems per hectare on steep slopes [34, 36]. These calculations are very sensitive to slope, DBH and snow conditions. Observations and statistical approaches [14, 16, 26] usually do not confirm them. Figure 3 shows stem densities recommended by the European guidelines to stabilize snowpack versus a sample of 142 observed snow avalanche initiations in forests mainly provided by a Swiss database [14]. Based on this sample, the miss rates (FNR) of the guidelines are low, not exceeding 15%. However, most of the guidelines tend to propose quite higher stem densities than observed and underestimate the effects of the trees [7]. Snow avalanche initiations in forests with stem densities of more than 900 per hectares (DBH >6 cm) seem to be statistical outliers allocated to deciduous broadleaved and mixed forests on very steep slopes [7].
Targets of critical stem densities for snow avalanche initiation in relation to observed stem densities dependent on slope [
Stem density observations in avalanche initiation sites are rare and difficult to compare, as they refer to different measurement methods. Additionally, the effects of trees depend on their spatial distribution. Most avalanches in high forests initiate in canopy openings. The term “gap” is usually used for small openings, but the term may also refer to all openings ranging from the size of a tree crown to large clear-cut areas. The size of canopy openings is an important issue for the management of forests with an object-protective function. Forest regeneration may be suppressed by too small canopy openings because of light deficiency, but inappropriately large openings carry the risk of avalanche formation.
One approach to assess critical canopy openings followed by some European guidelines assumes that limiting the length of cuts in the flow direction will reduce the probability of avalanche release as well as the avalanche propagation. This assumption and the recommended critical gap (opening) lengths in the range of 25 to 60 m depending on slope are based on physical calculations [39, 40, 41]. The validation of the implementations in the European guidelines delivered FNRs in the range of 36 to 49% [7]. These results show low influence of the proposed critical gap lengths on the probability of avalanche release but a reduction of runout lengths by 50 m on average which is statistically not significant. The reduction of the release probability in cuts as well as avalanche propagation is not primarily a question of the gap length in the release zone, but also dependent on the gap width, the surface roughness in the opening and the density of woody vegetation at the lower edge of the opening [13, 14, 42]. The terrain and forest conditions along the total flow path are crucial for the runout length.
The European guidelines for protective forest management do not consider the avalanche braking effect of the forest in the transit zone as normally slab avalanches with critical fracture size will flow through forests or destroy them until they run out on slopes of low inclination or the energy is dissipated by the fall over steep cliffs [12, 17, 40, 41, 43]. Trees are unfavorable resistance elements against avalanches due to their small obstacle width, shape and material properties. Depending on the elasticity of the species and the diameter of the plants, powder cloud avalanches with a pressure of about 3–5 kN/m2 and higher, and flow avalanches of about 10–50 kN/m2, which are possible even with small snow masses, break or uproot the trees [39, 41] as soon as the trees lose the flexibility of the juvenile stage (Figure 4).
Destruction of a young deciduous forest by an avalanche. Photo: K. Suntinger, 2009.
Forests can stop or significantly slow down small-to-medium avalanches starting within dense forests, in small gaps of dense forests or next to the upper timberline by snow detrainment [40, 44, 45]. The breakage, uprooting and overturning of trees as well as the entrainment of coarse woody debris and snow deposition behind trees (Figure 5) may cause a loss of energy and reduce runout lengths of medium to large avalanches originating from sites above the timberline or from large clear-cuts [46, 47, 48]. Indications on the distance from the release area (in forest cover openings or above the timberline) to forest cover penetration and on the release size which ensure braking effects of the forest cover vary from 30 to 200 m and from <5,000 to 30,000 m3 [21, 22, 40, 44, 46, 49].
Detrainment of avalanche snow by trees. Photo: F. Perzl, 2008.
The allocation of (potential) hazard zones to avalanches that may or may not be slowed down by the forest, is difficult and not only an issue of the release size. It must be remembered that stopping an avalanche within the forest may not be an effect of the forest, but a consequence of snow and terrain conditions in the transit zone as well as the elevation of the starting zone. The reduction of damages by silvicultural interventions in the transit zones is limited to the enhancement of the surface roughness on short-slopes and to promoting stand stability by species selection, formation of resistant individuals and acceptance of shrub-dominated growth.
Effects of forests on deep-seated landslides are a debated issue, while it is widely accepted that forests can prevent the development of shallow-seated landslides. This topic is further complicated by the fact that there is no uniform definition of deep-seated landslides, and that the distinction from shallow to deep is transitional. Part of this problem are numerous different landslide classifications with fuzziness of process descriptions as well as different transcriptions of landslide type definitions from one language to another.
We refer to mainly deep-seated permanent landslides and mainly shallow-seated spontaneous regolith (debris) slides according to the Swiss approach of hazard risk assessment [50]. Permanent landslides are masses that have already been displaced and are therefore in motion with phases of activity or inactivity. The term spontaneous landslide refers to first-time failures with no further movement of the deposits except secondary erosion.
Spontaneous debris slides may be classified for practical purposes into 1) slides and slumps without flow-like mass movements, 2) spoon, shell or wedge-shaped slides followed by material flows 2.1) without (debris avalanches) or 2.2) with linear erosion (debris flows) of the transit zone (Figure 6).
Left – Soil clod grown by trees moving downslope on a permanent landslide, center – debris avalanche, right – debris flow in forest. Photos: F. Perzl.
Spontaneous landslides of the flow type (2) are most common on steep mountain slopes and in mountain forests, because of the excessive release and runoff of subsurface and surface water from the scars of the initial slope failure. A further classification of landslides important for forest management is to distinguish hillside and channel bank failures. Slope stabilization effects of forest are limited at river embankments, as storm flows undercut root systems.
Many forest practices boards (e.g., [29, 51]) allocate limited effects of forests on deep-seated landslides or associate the effects to the water recharge and toe areas, which are prone to shallow landslide initiation. There are no studies that investigate or clearly show a cause-and-effect relationship between forest conditions and the reactivation of deep-seated landslides except one study [52] that showed that an increased velocity after clear-cut harvest was not correlated to change in precipitation [53]. Most authors (e.g., [10, 54, 55]) agree and silvicultural guidelines (e.g., [29, 31]) stating that a protective effect of forests is given especially in shallow-seated zones of potential depletion, as the roots do not stabilize soil layers deeper than 2 m. Although landslide inventories are biased by the forest cover, this is substantiated by studies on effects of forest practices and landslide inventories (e.g., [56]), which usually show a lower density of shallow-seated landslides on forested (forest cover) areas than on non-forested areas. However, there is no evidence that a high protective potential of forests is limited to depths smaller than about 2 m [7, 53]. Woody vegetation influence water budgets [53] and especially the moisture of soils rich in clay or silt, which are susceptible to slope failures, down to a depth of about 3 to 10 meters (e.g., [57, 58, 59]). On the other hand, shallow soils on steep slopes with a dense forest cover fail, if the bedrock below is impervious or pipeflow is blocked, and the pressure of the subsurface flow leads to an explosive collapse of the soil [60, 61]. Therefore, the protective effect of the forest cover is also limited in case of shallow soils.
Forests enhance slope stability by A) dewatering due to evapotranspiration, B) internal redistribution of water due to the hydraulic lift (maintenance of conductivity), C) prevention of dry cracks in soils by shadowing, D) reduction of near-surface downflow and distribution of the soil water by impacting the infiltration capacity of the soil, and E) mechanical reinforcement of slopes through roots [57, 62, 63, 64].
The impact of evapotranspiration on soil saturation (A) and soil water distribution (B) is secondary for preventing (shallow-seated) landslides in humid-temperate and boreal mountain-ecosystems with limited depths of nearly saturated soils, as intense rainfall and snowmelt are the key-drivers of landslide occurrence, which saturate the soils rapidly without time for dewatering [57, 65].
Dry cracking is not evident to drive landslides in Alpine conditions and is limited to soils rich in clay or silt. But effects (B, C) reducing contraction-induced soil openings and swelling pressure [66] may be important for deep-seated regolith under temporarily dry conditions.
The protective potential of the mitigation of near-surface downflow by forest (D) may be secondary in relation to (E) for short slopes and shallow soils. However, the mitigation of flow from upslope contributing areas is not negligible for landslides of the flow type (2), depending on the characteristic of contributing areas and issues of hydrological connectivity [67].
The anchoring to bedrock, and the additional soil strength or cohesion provided by roots (E) are the most significant contributions of woody vegetation to slope stability [54, 65]. Deciduous broadleaved species generally show higher root resistance than conifers [68], and their tensile strength is influenced by root water status [69]. The influence of the tree load is rather small in relation to root reinforcement [70], whereas the transmission of wind loads by trees to soil may negatively affect slope stability. The weight of trees, combined with root decay and an imbalance of above- and below-ground biomass, may increase erosion by uprooting especially in abandoned coppice stands [71].
All protective effects (A-E) are dependent on the ground coverage by healthy woody vegetation. Additionally, the root reinforcement of soils (E) and seasonal dewatering by evapotranspiration (A, B) depend on the stage of development and the forest’s species composition. It is frequently observed that clear-cutting or forest-dieback promote slope instability, although the effects of the remaining roots can stabilize the slope for several (3 to 15) years until root decay [57, 72].
Although the influence of forest management on landslide occurrence is addressed frequently in literature, only few authors provide information about the critical canopy cover and size of canopy openings like clear-cuts. The information useful for practice is limited to the recommendations in the European guidelines (Table 2); numerous erosion control guidelines avoid quantitative statements.
Canopy opening (gap) | Canopy cover [%] | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No regeneration | regeneration | |||||||||
Indicators and miss rates | NaiS minimal | SFP minimal | ISDW | NaiS minimal | SFP minimal | NaiS minimal | SFP minimal | GSM-N | GSM-S | ISDW |
Gap area [m2] | ≤600 | <600 | — | ≤1200 | <1200 | — | — | — | — | — |
FNR Gap area [%] | 25 | 25 | — | 34 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — |
Gap dimension link rule | — | AND | — | AND* | AND | — | — | — | — | — |
Gap length [m] | — | <20 | — | — | <25 | — | — | — | — | — |
FNR Gap length [%] | — | 18 | — | — | 68 | — | — | — | — | — |
Gap width [m] | — | — | ≤25 | ≤20* | — | — | — | — | — | — |
FNR Gap width [%] | — | — | 47 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Trees h >10 m | — | — | — | — | — | ≥40 | ≥40 | — | — | — |
All trees | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | >70 | >70 | >65 |
Large-sized trees | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0 | — | — | <25 |
FNR gap or cover [%] | 25 | 19 | 47 | 34 | 31 | 42 | 38 | 42 | ||
FNR large-sized [%] | — | — | — | — | — | — | 66 | — | — | 98 |
FNR combined [%] | — | — | — | — | — | 45 | 21 | 38 | 38 | 39 |
Canopy opening and canopy cover targets to prevent shallow landslide initiation according to the European guidelines NaiS [29] and SFP [30] (minimal requirements), GSM-N [31], GSM-S [32] and ISDW [33], and results of a validation based on 555 observations of shallow-seated landslides in alpine forests [7].
The combination rule is not clearly documented.
h, stand height; FNR, false negative rate in percent of the sample, “combined” refers to the final assessment by the combination of all targets (canopy cover, gap size, canopy cover of large trees).
There are many references addressing the mitigation of landslide occurrence by a site-appropriate tree species composition. Although plausible, we could not find clear and direct evidence of a relationship between the proportions of tree species, their spatial distribution and landslide activity in the literature. That is, even if the root systems of broadleaved hardwoods seem to provide better soil reinforcement than conifers, statistical analysis do not show this clearly. Amishev et al. [73] propose small clear-cuts of maximum 1 ha to maintain the protective effect of forests. This is a much larger critical area than recommended by the European guidelines (Table 2). Moos [74] identified the canopy cover, the length of canopy openings (“gaps”) and the distance to the next tree as the forest characteristics that influence landslide susceptibility; the area of openings was not included in the analyses. Her results indicate that a canopy cover (height >3 m) lower than 60% and a gap length longer than 20 m are critical especially on steep slopes. However, an influence of the gap length could only be ascertained in one of two study areas. Table 2 shows canopy opening and canopy cover targets recommended by the European guidelines to avoid landslide initiation in forests and validation results based on a sample of 555 shallow landslides [7]. The guidelines assume that regeneration contributes to slope stabilization. Therefore, openings with secured regeneration that are twice the area of critical openings without regeneration are not considered as critical. The validation of the canopy opening targets showed significantly higher FNR even if the length of the gap was additionally restricted. A canopy cover of tall trees of only 40% yielded similar FNR to a canopy cover of 70% with young growth and shrubs considered. Very high miss rates (≥66%) arise from the target of low occurrence of large-sized timber to reduce tree load of slopes and landslide-induced log jams in rivers. However, similar to the case of snow avalanches, the overall result of the assessment of the protective effect against landslides is highly dependent on the combination of indicators. The FNR of the guidelines are higher than in case of snow avalanche. In line with literature, these results indicate a protective potential of closed (natural) mature and old-growth forests without disturbances but limited protective effects of young growth.
Trees and coarse woody debris can retain mobilized sediments and therefore reduce hillslope and torrential debris flows [75, 76, 77, 78, 79]. Large-scale datasets indicate lower frequencies [80] and runout lengths [81] of debris flows and debris avalanches in mature forests in relation to other land uses or clear-cuts and young forest. However, the reduction of runout lengths may be an effect of smaller landslide densities and erosion volumes in mature forests rather than a barrier effect [76]. Results of [78] indicate a higher potential of trees and logs to retain debris at low-order section of rivers than on alluvial fans. Detrainment of debris on alluvial fans by forest depends on sediment concentration and tree density [82]. Trees increase the flow resistance and favor the deposition of materials due to detrainment of (coarse) debris, but the protective effect is difficult to assess (Figure 7).
Detrainment of coarse debris from a debris flow by forest at the alluvial fan. Photo: F. Perzl, 2012.
The main function and effect of forests in rockfall protection is to stop or to mitigate rockfall propagation in the transit or deposition zone. Effects of forests in rockfall starting zones are ambiguous [83, 84], and presence of forest may increase the onset probability of rockfall by chemical rock weathering through root exudates, root pressure and transmission of loads. The mitigation of rockfall initiation on steep and rocky release areas by silvicultural measures is limited to the removal of unstable trees to avoid block mobilization.
Forests reduce the propagation probability and the intensity of rockfall as impacts on trees and logs along the track dissipate kinetic energy as well as that rocks get caught by the stems [85]. Forests do not resist large rock masses in motion. Statements on single block volumes that might be stopped or slowed down by forest vary from about 1 m3 to a maximum of 20 m3 [86, 87]. However, the protective potential of forests in rockfall mitigation depends on the local situation and cannot be based on block volume alone. The protective effect is an issue at the stand-scale and especially at the slope-scale but influenced by single tree characteristics.
Trees absorb most of the impact energy of rocks by the root soil system followed by bending of stems and penetration into the wooden body [88]. The anchorage to soil correlates positively to stem and tree biomass [88]. Consequently, trees large in diameter and with long canopies are appropriate for energy dissipation. However, small trees are also able to stop larger rocks dependent on the hazard, terrain, and forest conditions, especially if the energy has already been dissipated along the trajectory by enough impacts on large trees (Figure 8) [85]. The protective effect of smaller trees depends on their spatial arrangement into interceptive collectives like coppice crops [89] and is adequate for smaller boulders (<0.5 m3) [90]. The stem density targets in the European guidelines reflect the discussions on protective diameters which vary from a minimum DBH of 12 to 34 cm (Table 3) but may also be influenced by measurement conventions. Broadleaved hardwoods can absorb more energy than conifers and broadleaved softwoods [86]. Additionally, the capacity of broadleaved species to recover from rockfall damage due to wound healing and sprouting is higher than of conifers [91]. In high mountain areas, where growth capacities of angiosperms are limited,
Left – Small beech and sycamore trees stopped a boulder of about 1.5 to 2 m3 (photo: F. Perzl), right – a wedge-shaped boulder caught by a larch and a spruce tree (photo: K. Suntinger).
Guideline | NaiS & SFP “minimum” | GSM-N | GSM-S | ISDW |
---|---|---|---|---|
plot (stand) | site* (stand) | |||
— | gap length ≤20 m | — | same values as in the transit zone | |
stem density | stem density | stem density & basal area | stem density & young growth | |
Block diameter <40 cm | ≥400/ha DBH >12 cm | — | — | — |
Block diameter 40–60 cm | ≥300/ha DBH >24 cm | — | — | — |
Block diameter 60–180 cm | ≥150/ha DBH >34 cm | — | — | — |
— | ≥796/ha DBH >20 cm (>25 m2/ha) | >350/ha DBH >17.5 cm and >25 m2/ha | >400/ha DBH >20 cm and CCPY ≥15% | |
gap length | gap length | gap length | gap length | |
<20 m | if coppice <20 m if high forest <40 m | — | ≤20 m | |
Deposition zone | stem density | all criteria | all criteria | all criteria |
— | ≥400/ha DBH >12 cm | same as in the transit zone | same as in the transit zone | same as in the transit zone |
— | gap length | — | — | gap length |
— | <20 m | — | — | ≤20 m |
— | >200 m | >200 m | — |
Protective effect-related targets of the forest structure against rockfall propagation according to the European guidelines NaiS [29], SFP [30], GSM-N [31], GSM-S [32] and ISDW [33].
Sites along the rockfall slope defined by different slope gradients.
DBH, diameter of stems at breast height [cm]; CCPY, canopy cover of “young” trees DBH <20 cm.
At the slope-scale, the protective effect of forest depends on the rock size, shape and energy, the terrain morphology and surface conditions like roughness and the damping potential of the soil, and the length of the forested slope as well as the density of the forest cover. The protective density of the forest is indicated by the (average) stem density or basal area (Table 3). Both approaches require the definition of the protective stem diameter. The usability of both approaches for risk assessments is limited by two facts: 1) forest density may vary considerably on a small spatial scale and stem distributions may change from random to clumped and 2) the length of the forested slope influences the protective density. Furthermore, concepts which are based on block diameters neglect that the block diameters of mobilizable rocks are difficult to predict, and that rockfall source areas usually deliver rocks of different sizes. Therefore, it is difficult to define applicable recommendations on silvicultural targets or critical values. A critical (average) forest density on the stand-scale does not indicate a low protection by forest inevitably as small-scale topographic features, stumps, logs or other stands may substitute the barrier effects or not. The gap concept implements the spatial variety in forest density but is affected by the same limitations. Kalberer [93] for example found a high rockfall risk reduction by forest in a study area, although the forest did not fulfill the requirements according to NaiS (Table 3). This was an effect of the length of the slope covered by forest and of cumulative effects of the woody vegetation [93]. Therefore, the recommendations in NaiS [29] have been replaced by an online tool, which implements the length of the forested slope, but refers to the average stem density or basal area on the slope-level [87].
The European guidelines consider the basal area (or stem density), some also a minimum length of the forested slope and the gap length, but they do not refer to effects of cumulative gap lengths and basal areas as proposed by [93, 94]. Some of the guidelines do not clearly disclose the relation of the targets to the considered spatial level [7]. However, a protective function (and effect) should not be allocated to a minimum slope length covered by forest as the protective potential also depends on the terrain morphology. It is not possible to define a forested slope length that has no relevant protective effect and thus no protective function [94].
Forests can prevent the formation of snow avalanches. They may also reduce the likelihood of shallow-seated slope failures and mitigate smaller rockfall. But they are unable to stop large masses of snow, soil and rock in motion. Therefore, natural hazard risk and forest management focus on the mitigation of onset probabilities at the stand-scale. The state of knowledge on protective effects of forests has been condensed into expert-based guidelines with quantitative forestry objectives. Forest effects on hazard propagation are difficult to implement in forest and risk management via guidelines, as local conditions vary considerably. The existing assessment procedures consider the protective mechanisms and their controlling conditions to varying degrees, depending on the state of knowledge and the complexity of data collection and process assessment that can be applied. Even in terms of hazard initiation, the guidelines propose quite different silvicultural targets which may result in under- or overestimations of protective effects. Recommendations on critical canopy covers, stem densities and sizes of openings should be treated with caution, even though they are frequently quoted and applied in a multitude of scientific and practical studies. The assessment of the protective effects of forest is still associated with uncertainty which also arise from the considered risk acceptance level, spatial scale and data issues.
This work was conducted in the context of the GreenRisk4ALPs project (ASP635), which has been financed by Interreg Alpine Space programme, one of the 15 transnational cooperation programs covering the whole of the European Union (EU) in the framework of European Regional policy. We thank Peter Bebi for providing the dataset on observed forest avalanche initiations in Switzerland.
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It provides a novel ALIZA Canvas and ALIZA Process supported by a comprehensive ALIZA Toolset. This output is derived from observed, tangible deficiencies in contemporary functional communications in manufacturing. This study proposes an innovative approach with robust methodologies for strategic alignment of the technical and business components in manufacturing. The requirement for a supplementary educational infrastructure, to address the pronounced educational shortcomings and knowledge gaps in the transition to Industry 4.0 is outlined. An explanation is provided of how E-Cubers (our own educational organization) will design, develop, and deliver educational programmes on Topics relevant to achieving Industry 4.0 Equipment Engineering Excellence. It defines and tests the novel concept of the E-Cubers Eight Ps; encompassing prioritized problem solving, via portfolios and projects, through peer collaboration within a defined technology playground with emphasis on learning and playing with passion. The E-Cubers Eight Ps is combined with The E-Cubers Library to deliver a truly comprehensive specialist, national learning framework. This holistic approach will ultimately enable Ireland to lead the way in Industry 4.0 by doing what we do best “ag spraoi agus ag imirt” (Gaelic – playing by having fun and competing).",book:{id:"7436",slug:"new-trends-in-industrial-automation",title:"New Trends in Industrial Automation",fullTitle:"New Trends in Industrial Automation"},signatures:"Shane Loughlin",authors:null}],onlineFirstChaptersFilter:{topicId:"119",limit:6,offset:0},onlineFirstChaptersCollection:[{id:"1082338",title:"Capacitated Clustering Models to Real Life Applications",slug:null,totalDownloads:5,totalDimensionsCites:0,doi:"10.5992/intechopen.1000213",abstract:'This chapter considers the use of different capacitated clustering problems and models that fits better in real-life applications such as household waste collection, IT teams layout in software factories, wholesales distribution, and staff’s home collection or delivery to/from workplace. Each application is explored in its regular form as it is being developed by contractors and/or users. We consider for each application the aspects of solving the problem by the appropriate mathematical programming model and decision support methodology (using aggregated Geographical Information System and mobile technology) to hold correctly and most precisely the problems and difficulties related to instances in evaluation. The experience on these fields is here revealed in detailed form as the results obtained by using the techniques here explained.
',book:{id:"11082",title:"Operations Management",coverURL:"https://cdn.intechopen.com/books/images_new/11082.jpg"},signatures:"Marcos J. Negreiros, Nelson Maculan, Augusto W.C. Palhano, Albert E.F. Muritiba and Pablo L.F. Batista"},{id:"81676",title:"Multiscale Modeling Framework for Defect Generation in Metal Powder Bed Fusion Process to Correlate Process Parameters and Structural Properties",slug:"multiscale-modeling-framework-for-defect-generation-in-metal-powder-bed-fusion-process-to-correlate-",totalDownloads:10,totalDimensionsCites:0,doi:"10.5772/intechopen.104493",abstract:"Powder Bed Fusion (PBF) is one of the most popular additive manufacturing methods employed extensively to fabricate complex parts especially in industries with stringent standard criteria, including aerospace, medical, and defense. DMLS/PBF fabrication of parts that is free of defects represents major challenges. A comprehensive study of thermal defects, contributing parameters, and their correlation is necessary to better understand how process specifications initiate these defects. Monitoring & controlling temperature and its distribution throughout a layer under fabrication is an effective and efficient proxy to controlling process thermal evolution, which is a completely experimental technique. This being highly costly specifically for metal printing, computer-based numerical simulation can significantly help the identification of temperature distribution during the printing process. In this paper, a multiscale modeling technique is demonstrated with commercially available software tools to correlate the defect generation in metal PBF process and significant process parameters. This technique can help efficiently design the process setting in addition to or even absence of experimental monitoring data. This research work is a part of a larger project of closed-loop control strategy development using physics-based modeling and graph-based artificial neural network implementation for reducing thermally induced part defects in metal 3D printed process.",book:{id:"11171",title:"Trends and Opportunities of Rapid Prototyping Technologies",coverURL:"https://cdn.intechopen.com/books/images_new/11171.jpg"},signatures:"Suchana Akter Jahan and Hazim El-Mounayri"},{id:"1089787",title:"Differences between Universal-Deterministic and Probabilistic Hypotheses in Operations Management Research",slug:null,totalDownloads:4,totalDimensionsCites:0,doi:"10.5992/intechopen.1000218",abstract:'Very few papers in the operations management (OM) field have taken the themes of universal-deterministic (UD) and probabilistic hypotheses as their main topics of investigation and discussion. Our investigation continues a recent line of research that focuses on a better understanding of these critical issues. Specifically, we attempt to respond to some pointed criticisms that experts in the field have made when the topic UD and probabilistic hypotheses have emerged in academic settings/discussions. A detailed analysis of those criticisms shows that they lack merit, thereby reinforcing our argument that it is most important to distinguish between the two types of scientific hypotheses in order to advance in the rigor of OM theoretical and empirical research. Ideas for future research are outlined.
',book:{id:"11082",title:"Operations Management",coverURL:"https://cdn.intechopen.com/books/images_new/11082.jpg"},signatures:"Roberto Sarmiento"},{id:"1083885",title:"Design and Planning Robust and Competitive Supply Chains",slug:null,totalDownloads:5,totalDimensionsCites:0,doi:"10.5992/intechopen.1000208",abstract:'In recent years, supply chains in the manufacturing industry have become more and more complicated, and many cases of supply chain disruptions due to natural disasters have been confirmed. It is necessary for manufacturers to build a system that can help them alleviate losses and shorten recovery periods due to supply chain disruptions. Supplier diversification, as well as supplier evaluation and selection, are discussed as risk aversion measures in many papers. However, even if the procurement source has been evaluated enough, there are problems, such as opportunity loss during recovery periods and soaring procurement costs during normal periods. In this chapter, to help Japanese manufacturers to alleviate opportunity loss under component procurement disruption situations and keep cost competitiveness in normal periods, decision-making models of supply chain structure assessment, supplier selection, procurement allocation, and trading contracts are designed and verified.
',book:{id:"11082",title:"Operations Management",coverURL:"https://cdn.intechopen.com/books/images_new/11082.jpg"},signatures:"Kotomichi Matsuno, Jiahua Weng, Noriyuki Hosokawa and Takahiro Ohno"},{id:"1085055",title:"Performance Measurement Using Deterministic and Stochastic Multiplicative Directional Distance Functions",slug:null,totalDownloads:5,totalDimensionsCites:0,doi:"10.5992/intechopen.1000179",abstract:'Performance measurement is essential for fostering continuous improvement of the production and operation management in a firm or organization. We consider a deterministic scenario based on a flexible structure of production technology and establish a multiplicative relationship between the generalized multiplicative directional distance function (GMDDF) and geometric distance function (GDF). We also introduce a stochastic multiplicative directional distance function (SMDDF). Based on a stochastic scenario, the SMDDF can be estimated by the method of convex nonparametric least squares. As an illustrative application, we investigate the productive performance of Japanese life insurance companies using a panel dataset spanning 2016 to 2020.
',book:{id:"11082",title:"Operations Management",coverURL:"https://cdn.intechopen.com/books/images_new/11082.jpg"},signatures:"Yu Zhao"},{id:"1085559",title:"Assessment of Medical Equipment Maintenance Management",slug:null,totalDownloads:21,totalDimensionsCites:0,doi:"10.5992/intechopen.1000210",abstract:'Today's modern hospital is highly dependent on different types of medical equipment to help diagnose, monitor, and treat patients. Medical equipment maintenance is important to reduce costs, reduce patient dissatisfaction, treat the patient in a timely manner, and reduce mortality and risks during patient care. Good maintenance management is important to have well-planned and implemented programs through which hospitals can minimize medical device failures or other problems with the operation of medical equipment. Medical equipment plays an important role in the hospital system; therefore, the acquisition, maintenance, and replacement of medical equipment are key factors in hospitals for the implementation of the health service. Thus, in order to ensure the quality of medical devices for the provision of medical care, it is imperative to evaluate the safety of using hospital maintenance management. In order to achieve these goals, hospitals must develop checklists that identify the state of performance of medical equipment maintenance. It is essential for clinical managers and engineers not only to increase the capacity of the hospital but also to predict the risks of sudden failure. Given the lack of unique and comprehensive maintenance management checklists, the current goal is to design and develop medical equipment maintenance management checklists.
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He is currently the Director of the Postgraduate Program in Implantology of the Bioface/UCAM/PgO (Montevideo, Uruguay), Director of the Cathedra of Biotechnology of the Catholic University of Murcia (Murcia, Spain), an Extraordinary Full Professor of the Catholic University of Murcia (Murcia, Spain) as well as the Director of the private center of research Biotecnos – Technology and Science (Montevideo, Uruguay). Applied biomaterials, cellular and molecular biology, and dental implants are among his research interests. He has published several original papers in renowned journals. 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Other positions she has held at the university include Vice-Dean of Master Programs, Vice-Dean of the Degree in Biology and Vice-Dean for Mobility and Enterprise and Engagement at the Faculty of Science (University of Alicante). She received her Bachelor in Biology in 1998 (University of Alicante) and her PhD in 2003 (Biochemistry, University of Alicante). She undertook post-doctoral research at the University of East Anglia (Norwich, U.K. 2004-2005; 2007-2008).\nHer multidisciplinary research focuses on investigating archaea and their potential applications in biotechnology. She has an H-index of 21. She has authored one patent and has published more than 70 indexed papers and around 60 book chapters.\nShe has contributed to more than 150 national and international meetings during the last 15 years. Her research interests include archaea metabolism, enzymes purification and characterization, gene regulation, carotenoids and bioplastics production, antioxidant\ncompounds, waste water treatments, and brines bioremediation.\nRosa María’s other roles include editorial board member for several journals related\nto biochemistry, reviewer for more than 60 journals (biochemistry, molecular biology, biotechnology, chemistry and microbiology) and president of several organizing committees in international meetings related to the N-cycle or respiratory processes.",institutionString:null,institution:{name:"University of Alicante",institutionURL:null,country:{name:"Spain"}}},editorTwo:null,editorThree:null},{id:"15",title:"Chemical Biology",coverUrl:"https://cdn.intechopen.com/series_topics/covers/15.jpg",isOpenForSubmission:!0,editor:{id:"441442",title:"Dr.",name:"Şükrü",middleName:null,surname:"Beydemir",slug:"sukru-beydemir",fullName:"Şükrü Beydemir",profilePictureURL:"https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/intech-files/0033Y00003GsUoIQAV/Profile_Picture_1634557147521",biography:"Dr. Şükrü Beydemir obtained a BSc in Chemistry in 1995 from Yüzüncü Yıl University, MSc in Biochemistry in 1998, and PhD in Biochemistry in 2002 from Atatürk University, Turkey. He performed post-doctoral studies at Max-Planck Institute, Germany, and University of Florence, Italy in addition to making several scientific visits abroad. He currently works as a Full Professor of Biochemistry in the Faculty of Pharmacy, Anadolu University, Turkey. Dr. Beydemir has published over a hundred scientific papers spanning protein biochemistry, enzymology and medicinal chemistry, reviews, book chapters and presented several conferences to scientists worldwide. He has received numerous publication awards from various international scientific councils. He serves in the Editorial Board of several international journals. 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He is a member of the Turkish Biochemical Society, American Chemical Society, and German Genetics society. Dr. Ekinci published around ninety scientific papers, reviews and book chapters, and presented several conferences to scientists. He has received numerous publication awards from several scientific councils. 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He worked on the structure-function relationships of glycoconjugates and his main project was the investigations on the biological roles of the de-N-glycosylation enzymes (Endo-N-acetyl-β-D-glucosaminidase and peptide-N4-(N-acetyl-β-glucosaminyl) asparagine amidase). From 2002 he contributes to the understanding of the Blood-brain barrier functioning using proteomics approaches. He has published more than 70 papers. 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Since then, he has been working as an Adjunct Professor in the same Department at the University of Pavia. His research activity during the first years was primarily focused on the purification and structural characterization of enzymes from animal and plant sources. During this period, Prof. Iadarola familiarized himself with the conventional techniques used in column chromatography, spectrophotometry, manual Edman degradation, and electrophoresis). Since 1995, he has been working on: i) the determination in biological fluids (serum, urine, bronchoalveolar lavage, sputum) of proteolytic activities involved in the degradation processes of connective tissue matrix, and ii) on the identification of biological markers of lung diseases. 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She gained considerable experience in developing and validating new methodologies whose applications allowed her to determine both the amount of biomarkers (Desmosine and Isodesmosine) in the urine of patients affected by COPD, and the activity of proteolytic enzymes (HNE, Cathepsin G, Pseudomonas aeruginosa elastase) in the sputa of these patients. Simona Viglio was also involved in research dealing with the supplementation of amino acids in patients with brain injury and chronic heart failure. She is presently engaged in the development of 2-DE and LC-MS techniques for the study of proteomics in biological fluids. The aim of this research is the identification of potential biomarkers of lung diseases. She is an author of about 90 publications (According to Scopus: H-Index: 23; According to WOS: H-Index: 20) on peer-reviewed journals, a member of the “Società Italiana di Biochimica e Biologia Molecolare,“ and a Consultant Reviewer for International Journal of Molecular Science, Journal of Chromatography A, COPD, Plos ONE and Nutritional Neuroscience.",institutionString:null,institution:{name:"University of Pavia",institutionURL:null,country:{name:"Italy"}}},editorThree:null}]},overviewPageOFChapters:{paginationCount:42,paginationItems:[{id:"82914",title:"Glance on the Critical Role of IL-23 Receptor Gene Variations in Inflammation-Induced Carcinogenesis",doi:"10.5772/intechopen.105049",signatures:"Mohammed El-Gedamy",slug:"glance-on-the-critical-role-of-il-23-receptor-gene-variations-in-inflammation-induced-carcinogenesis",totalDownloads:15,totalCrossrefCites:0,totalDimensionsCites:0,authors:null,book:{title:"Chemokines Updates",coverURL:"https://cdn.intechopen.com/books/images_new/11672.jpg",subseries:{id:"18",title:"Proteomics"}}},{id:"82875",title:"Lipidomics as a Tool in the Diagnosis and Clinical Therapy",doi:"10.5772/intechopen.105857",signatures:"María Elizbeth Alvarez Sánchez, Erick Nolasco Ontiveros, Rodrigo Arreola, Adriana Montserrat Espinosa González, Ana María García Bores, Roberto Eduardo López Urrutia, Ignacio Peñalosa Castro, María del Socorro Sánchez Correa and Edgar Antonio Estrella Parra",slug:"lipidomics-as-a-tool-in-the-diagnosis-and-clinical-therapy",totalDownloads:7,totalCrossrefCites:0,totalDimensionsCites:0,authors:null,book:{title:"Fatty Acids - Recent Advances",coverURL:"https://cdn.intechopen.com/books/images_new/11669.jpg",subseries:{id:"17",title:"Metabolism"}}},{id:"82440",title:"Lipid Metabolism and Associated Molecular Signaling Events in Autoimmune Disease",doi:"10.5772/intechopen.105746",signatures:"Mohan Vanditha, Sonu Das and Mathew John",slug:"lipid-metabolism-and-associated-molecular-signaling-events-in-autoimmune-disease",totalDownloads:17,totalCrossrefCites:0,totalDimensionsCites:0,authors:null,book:{title:"Fatty Acids - Recent Advances",coverURL:"https://cdn.intechopen.com/books/images_new/11669.jpg",subseries:{id:"17",title:"Metabolism"}}},{id:"82483",title:"Oxidative Stress in Cardiovascular Diseases",doi:"10.5772/intechopen.105891",signatures:"Laura Mourino-Alvarez, Tamara Sastre-Oliva, Nerea Corbacho-Alonso and Maria G. 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Waisundara",profilePictureURL:"https://mts.intechopen.com/storage/users/194281/images/system/194281.jpg",biography:"Dr. Viduranga Waisundara obtained her Ph.D. in Food Science\nand Technology from the Department of Chemistry, National\nUniversity of Singapore, in 2010. She was a lecturer at Temasek Polytechnic, Singapore from July 2009 to March 2013.\nShe relocated to her motherland of Sri Lanka and spearheaded the Functional Food Product Development Project at the\nNational Institute of Fundamental Studies from April 2013 to\nOctober 2016. She was a senior lecturer on a temporary basis at the Department of\nFood Technology, Faculty of Technology, Rajarata University of Sri Lanka. She is\ncurrently Deputy Principal of the Australian College of Business and Technology –\nKandy Campus, Sri Lanka. She is also the Global Harmonization Initiative (GHI)",institutionString:"Australian College of Business & Technology",institution:{name:"Kobe College",institutionURL:null,country:{name:"Japan"}}}]},{type:"book",id:"6820",title:"Keratin",subtitle:null,coverURL:"https://cdn.intechopen.com/books/images_new/6820.jpg",slug:"keratin",publishedDate:"December 19th 2018",editedByType:"Edited by",bookSignature:"Miroslav Blumenberg",hash:"6def75cd4b6b5324a02b6dc0359896d0",volumeInSeries:2,fullTitle:"Keratin",editors:[{id:"31610",title:"Dr.",name:"Miroslav",middleName:null,surname:"Blumenberg",slug:"miroslav-blumenberg",fullName:"Miroslav Blumenberg",profilePictureURL:"https://mts.intechopen.com/storage/users/31610/images/system/31610.jpg",biography:"Miroslav Blumenberg, Ph.D., was born in Subotica and received his BSc in Belgrade, Yugoslavia. He completed his Ph.D. at MIT in Organic Chemistry; he followed up his Ph.D. with two postdoctoral study periods at Stanford University. Since 1983, he has been a faculty member of the RO Perelman Department of Dermatology, NYU School of Medicine, where he is codirector of a training grant in cutaneous biology. Dr. Blumenberg’s research is focused on the epidermis, expression of keratin genes, transcription profiling, keratinocyte differentiation, inflammatory diseases and cancers, and most recently the effects of the microbiome on the skin. He has published more than 100 peer-reviewed research articles and graduated numerous Ph.D. and postdoctoral students.",institutionString:null,institution:{name:"New York University Langone Medical Center",institutionURL:null,country:{name:"United States of America"}}}]},{type:"book",id:"7978",title:"Vitamin A",subtitle:null,coverURL:"https://cdn.intechopen.com/books/images_new/7978.jpg",slug:"vitamin-a",publishedDate:"May 15th 2019",editedByType:"Edited by",bookSignature:"Leila Queiroz Zepka, Veridiana Vera de Rosso and Eduardo Jacob-Lopes",hash:"dad04a658ab9e3d851d23705980a688b",volumeInSeries:3,fullTitle:"Vitamin A",editors:[{id:"261969",title:"Dr.",name:"Leila",middleName:null,surname:"Queiroz Zepka",slug:"leila-queiroz-zepka",fullName:"Leila Queiroz Zepka",profilePictureURL:"https://mts.intechopen.com/storage/users/261969/images/system/261969.png",biography:"Prof. Dr. Leila Queiroz Zepka is currently an associate professor in the Department of Food Technology and Science, Federal University of Santa Maria, Brazil. She has more than fifteen years of teaching and research experience. She has published more than 550 scientific publications/communications, including 15 books, 50 book chapters, 100 original research papers, 380 research communications in national and international conferences, and 12 patents. She is a member of the editorial board of five journals and acts as a reviewer for several national and international journals. 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recognition that the human genome cannot provide answers to the etiology of a disorder, changes in the proteins expressed by a genome became a focus in research. Thus proteomics, an area of research that detects all protein forms expressed in an organism, including splice isoforms and post-translational modifications, is more suitable than genomics for a comprehensive understanding of the biochemical processes that govern life. The most common proteomics applications are currently in the clinical field for the identification, in a variety of biological matrices, of biomarkers for diagnosis and therapeutic intervention of disorders. From the comparison of proteomic profiles of control and disease or different physiological states, which may emerge, changes in protein expression can provide new insights into the roles played by some proteins in human pathologies. Understanding how proteins function and interact with each other is another goal of proteomics that makes this approach even more intriguing. Specialized technology and expertise are required to assess the proteome of any biological sample. Currently, proteomics relies mainly on mass spectrometry (MS) combined with electrophoretic (1 or 2-DE-MS) and/or chromatographic techniques (LC-MS/MS). MS is an excellent tool that has gained popularity in proteomics because of its ability to gather a complex body of information such as cataloging protein expression, identifying protein modification sites, and defining protein interactions. The Proteomics topic aims to attract contributions on all aspects of MS-based proteomics that, by pushing the boundaries of MS capabilities, may address biological problems that have not been resolved yet.",coverUrl:"https://cdn.intechopen.com/series_topics/covers/18.jpg",hasOnlineFirst:!0,hasPublishedBooks:!0,annualVolume:11414,editor:{id:"200689",title:"Prof.",name:"Paolo",middleName:null,surname:"Iadarola",slug:"paolo-iadarola",fullName:"Paolo Iadarola",profilePictureURL:"https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/intech-files/0030O00002bSCl8QAG/Profile_Picture_1623568118342",biography:"Paolo Iadarola graduated with a degree in Chemistry from the University of Pavia (Italy) in July 1972. He then worked as an Assistant Professor at the Faculty of Science of the same University until 1984. In 1985, Prof. Iadarola became Associate Professor at the Department of Biology and Biotechnologies of the University of Pavia and retired in October 2017. Since then, he has been working as an Adjunct Professor in the same Department at the University of Pavia. His research activity during the first years was primarily focused on the purification and structural characterization of enzymes from animal and plant sources. During this period, Prof. Iadarola familiarized himself with the conventional techniques used in column chromatography, spectrophotometry, manual Edman degradation, and electrophoresis). Since 1995, he has been working on: i) the determination in biological fluids (serum, urine, bronchoalveolar lavage, sputum) of proteolytic activities involved in the degradation processes of connective tissue matrix, and ii) on the identification of biological markers of lung diseases. In this context, he has developed and validated new methodologies (e.g., Capillary Electrophoresis coupled to Laser-Induced Fluorescence, CE-LIF) whose application enabled him to determine both the amounts of biochemical markers (Desmosines) in urine/serum of patients affected by Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) and the activity of proteolytic enzymes (Human Neutrophil Elastase, Cathepsin G, Pseudomonas aeruginosa elastase) in sputa of these patients. More recently, Prof. Iadarola was involved in developing techniques such as two-dimensional electrophoresis coupled to liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry (2DE-LC/MS) for the proteomic analysis of biological fluids aimed at the identification of potential biomarkers of different lung diseases. He is the author of about 150 publications (According to Scopus: H-Index: 23; Total citations: 1568- According to WOS: H-Index: 20; Total Citations: 1296) of peer-reviewed international journals. 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