In this chapter, the need of probabilistic modeling for design, construction, and operation of oil and gas pipelines is justified. Such modeling should use information and databases on deterministic and statistical dependencies related to deformation, damage accumulation, failure, fracture accidents, and catastrophes. The probabilistic design equations and their parameters for the characteristics of strength, durability, fracture toughness, risks of accidents, and manmade catastrophes are given. The economic efficiency of pipeline management based on controlling probabilistic characteristics through conducting diagnostic, repair-and-renewal operations while ensuring the acceptable levels of reliability and safety parameters is substantiated. The results of studies in the field of statistics and probabilities of emergency situations during manufacturing, construction, and operation conducted by Russian and foreign specialists are presented.
Part of the book: Probabilistic Modeling in System Engineering
Within the long-term Russian and foreign practice, deterministic methods of basic strength calculations have been developed and are being developed at the design stage of long-distance pipelines. Occurring operational damages, failures, accidents, and catastrophes show there are no direct substantiations for the prevention of such emergencies in the framework of existing calculations. In order to respond to these situations, the following are developed: additional precise deterministic, static, and probabilistic calculations with linear and nonlinear criteria of deformation and fracture mechanics, complex diagnostics of the state of the pipeline using in-line pigs, and laboratory, model, bench, and field tests of pipelines with technological and operational defects. The results of systematic scientific research and applied developments are presented.
Part of the book: Probability, Combinatorics and Control