Carlos Afonso Nobre

By Ismael Nobre and Carlos A. Nobre

Abstract For the last two decades, the Amazon development debate has been torn between attempts to reconcile two rather opposing views of land use: on one hand, a vision of setting aside large tracts of the Amazon forests for conservation purposes (referred hereafter to as The First Way) and, on the other hand, seeking a ‘sustainable’ resource-intensive development, mostly through agriculture/livestock, energy and mining (referred hereafter to as The Second Way). The decrease of Brazilian Amazon deforestation from 2005 to 2014 (about 75% decline) opens a window of opportunity to conceive a novel sustainable development paradigm: The Amazonia Third Way initiative (A3W). It can represent a new opportunity emerging to protect the Amazon ecosystems and the indigenous and traditional peoples who are their custodians and at the same time develop a vibrant, socially inclusive biodiversity-driven ‘green economy’ in the Amazon by harnessing Nature’s value through the physical, digital and biological technologies of the 4th Industrial Revolution (4IR). 4IR technologies are increasingly harnessing these assets across many industries from pharmaceutical to energy, food, cosmetics, materials and mobility, and making profits. A3W addresses ways to channel to the Amazon the benefits of the 4IR for the creation of bio-industries and local development as it protects the forests.

Part of the book: Land Use

By Diego Oliveira Brandão, Julia Arieira and Carlos Afonso Nobre

Brazil nut (Bertholletia excelsa) is an important species in the Amazon, but the relationships between seed production and climate change are still poorly understood. Seed production data were obtained for the entire Brazilian Amazon, while data on precipitation, relative humidity, vapor pressure deficit, and temperature (mean and maximum) were collected to test their relationship with seed production in the Baixo Amazonas. Annual seed production in the Baixo Amazonas varied between 2156 and 10,235 tons per year from 1990 to 2021, with an average of 5192 tons per year. Linear regression analyses did not identify significant relationships between seed production and climatic variables during the same year (p > 0.05). However, significant relationships were found between the volume of seeds in the base year and climatic variables from 1 year before seed collection (p < 0.05), except for total precipitation (p = 0.15). Temperature was the main climatic variable affecting Brazil nut production, indicating that each 1°C increase in temperature is associated with an average decrease in seed volume ranging from 2595 to 2673 tons. Temperature measures explain between 38% and 42% of the variability in seed volume in the Baixo Amazonas. Therefore, it is crucial to mitigate global warming, invest in technological processes to add value to the remaining seeds, and adopt B. excelsa varieties more adapted to climate change.

Part of the book: Land-Use Management