In this chapter, we propose a probabilistic model for train delay propagation. There are deduced formulas for the probability distributions of arrival headways and knock-on delays depending on distributions of the primary delay duration and the departure headways. We prove some key mathematical statements. The obtained formulas allow to predict the frequency of train arrival delays and to determine the optimal traffic adjustments. Several important special cases of initial probability distributions are considered. Results of the theoretical analysis are verified by comparison with statistical data on the train traffic at the Russian railways.
Part of the book: Probabilistic Modeling in System Engineering