Different uncertainties are researched for providing safe and effective development of hydrocarbon deposits and rational operation of oil and gas systems (OGS). The original models and methods, applicable in education and practice for solving problems of system engineering, are proposed. These models allow us to analyze natural and technogenic threats for oil and gas systems on a probabilistic level for a given prognostic time. Transformation and adaptation of models are demonstrated by examples connected with non-destructive testing. The measures of counteraction to threats for the typical manufacturing processes of gas preparation equipment on enterprise are analyzed. The risks for pipelines, pumping liquefied natural gas across the South American territory, are predicted. Results of probabilistic modeling of the sea gas and oil-producing systems from their vulnerability point of view (including various scenarios of possible terrorist influences) are analyzed and interpreted.
Part of the book: Probabilistic Modeling in System Engineering