Overview of several models for project risk management.
\r\n\tIn sum, the book presents a reflective analysis of the pedagogical hubs for a changing world, considering the most fundamental areas of the current contingencies in education.
",isbn:"978-1-83968-793-8",printIsbn:"978-1-83968-792-1",pdfIsbn:"978-1-83968-794-5",doi:null,price:0,priceEur:0,priceUsd:0,slug:null,numberOfPages:0,isOpenForSubmission:!1,hash:"b01f9136149277b7e4cbc1e52bce78ec",bookSignature:"Dr. María Jose Hernandez-Serrano",publishedDate:null,coverURL:"https://cdn.intechopen.com/books/images_new/10229.jpg",keywords:"Teacher Digital Competences, Flipped Learning, Online Resources Design, Neuroscientific Literacy (Myths), Emotions and Learning, Multisensory Stimulation, Citizen Skills, Violence Prevention, Moral Development, Universal Design for Learning, Sensitizing on Diversity, Supportive Strategies",numberOfDownloads:null,numberOfWosCitations:0,numberOfCrossrefCitations:null,numberOfDimensionsCitations:null,numberOfTotalCitations:null,isAvailableForWebshopOrdering:!0,dateEndFirstStepPublish:"September 14th 2020",dateEndSecondStepPublish:"October 12th 2020",dateEndThirdStepPublish:"December 11th 2020",dateEndFourthStepPublish:"March 1st 2021",dateEndFifthStepPublish:"April 30th 2021",remainingDaysToSecondStep:"3 months",secondStepPassed:!0,currentStepOfPublishingProcess:4,editedByType:null,kuFlag:!1,biosketch:"Dr. Phil. Maria Jose Hernandez Serrano is a tenured lecturer in the Department of Theory and History of Education at the University of Salamanca, where she currently teaches on Teacher Education. She graduated in Social Education (2000) and Psycho-Pedagogy (2003) at the University of Salamanca. Then, she obtained her European Ph.D. in Education and Training in Virtual Environments by research with the University of Manchester, UK (2009).",coeditorOneBiosketch:null,coeditorTwoBiosketch:null,coeditorThreeBiosketch:null,coeditorFourBiosketch:null,coeditorFiveBiosketch:null,editors:[{id:"187893",title:"Dr.",name:"María Jose",middleName:null,surname:"Hernandez-Serrano",slug:"maria-jose-hernandez-serrano",fullName:"María Jose Hernandez-Serrano",profilePictureURL:"https://mts.intechopen.com/storage/users/187893/images/system/187893.jpg",biography:"DPhil Maria Jose Hernandez Serrano is a tenured Lecturer in the Department of Theory and History of Education at the University of Salamanca (Spain), where she currently teaches on Teacher Education. She graduated in Social Education (2000) and Psycho-Pedagogy (2003) at the University of Salamanca. Then, she obtained her European Ph.D. on Education and Training in Virtual Environments by research with the University of Manchester, UK (2009). She obtained a Visiting Scholar Postdoctoral Grant (of the British Academy, UK) at the Oxford Internet Institute of the University of Oxford (2011) and was granted with a postdoctoral research (in 2021) at London Birbeck University.\n \nShe is author of more than 20 research papers, and more than 35 book chapters (H Index 10). She is interested in the study of the educational process and the analysis of cognitive and affective processes in the context of neuroeducation and neurotechnologies, along with the study of social contingencies affecting the educational institutions and requiring new skills for educators.\n\nHer publications are mainly of the educational process mediated by technologies and digital competences. Currently, her new research interests are: the transdisciplinary application of the brain-based research to the educational context and virtual environments, and the neuropedagogical implications of the technologies on the development of the brain in younger students. Also, she is interested in the promotion of creative and critical uses of digital technologies, the emerging uses of social media and transmedia, and the informal learning through technologies.\n\nShe is a member of several research Networks and Scientific Committees in international journals on Educational Technologies and Educommunication, and collaborates as a reviewer in several prestigious journals (see public profile in Publons).\n\nUntil March 2010 she was in charge of the Adult University of Salamanca, by coordinating teaching activities of more than a thousand adult students. She currently is, since 2014, the Secretary of the Department of Theory and History of Education. Since 2015 she collaborates with the Council Educational Program by training teachers and families in the translation of advances from educational neuroscience.",institutionString:"University of Salamanca",position:null,outsideEditionCount:0,totalCites:0,totalAuthoredChapters:"0",totalChapterViews:"0",totalEditedBooks:"0",institution:{name:"University of Salamanca",institutionURL:null,country:{name:"Spain"}}}],coeditorOne:null,coeditorTwo:null,coeditorThree:null,coeditorFour:null,coeditorFive:null,topics:[{id:"23",title:"Social Sciences",slug:"social-sciences"}],chapters:null,productType:{id:"1",title:"Edited Volume",chapterContentType:"chapter",authoredCaption:"Edited by"},personalPublishingAssistant:{id:"301331",firstName:"Mia",lastName:"Vulovic",middleName:null,title:"Mrs.",imageUrl:"https://mts.intechopen.com/storage/users/301331/images/8498_n.jpg",email:"mia.v@intechopen.com",biography:"As an Author Service Manager, my responsibilities include monitoring and facilitating all publishing activities for authors and editors. From chapter submission and review to approval and revision, copyediting and design, until final publication, I work closely with authors and editors to ensure a simple and easy publishing process. I maintain constant and effective communication with authors, editors and reviewers, which allows for a level of personal support that enables contributors to fully commit and concentrate on the chapters they are writing, editing, or reviewing. I assist authors in the preparation of their full chapter submissions and track important deadlines and ensure they are met. I help to coordinate internal processes such as linguistic review, and monitor the technical aspects of the process. As an ASM I am also involved in the acquisition of editors. 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Venkateswarlu",coverURL:"https://cdn.intechopen.com/books/images_new/371.jpg",editedByType:"Edited by",editors:[{id:"58592",title:"Dr.",name:"Arun",surname:"Shanker",slug:"arun-shanker",fullName:"Arun Shanker"}],productType:{id:"1",chapterContentType:"chapter",authoredCaption:"Edited by"}},{type:"book",id:"878",title:"Phytochemicals",subtitle:"A Global Perspective of Their Role in Nutrition and Health",isOpenForSubmission:!1,hash:"ec77671f63975ef2d16192897deb6835",slug:"phytochemicals-a-global-perspective-of-their-role-in-nutrition-and-health",bookSignature:"Venketeshwer Rao",coverURL:"https://cdn.intechopen.com/books/images_new/878.jpg",editedByType:"Edited by",editors:[{id:"82663",title:"Dr.",name:"Venketeshwer",surname:"Rao",slug:"venketeshwer-rao",fullName:"Venketeshwer Rao"}],productType:{id:"1",chapterContentType:"chapter",authoredCaption:"Edited by"}},{type:"book",id:"4816",title:"Face Recognition",subtitle:null,isOpenForSubmission:!1,hash:"146063b5359146b7718ea86bad47c8eb",slug:"face_recognition",bookSignature:"Kresimir Delac and Mislav Grgic",coverURL:"https://cdn.intechopen.com/books/images_new/4816.jpg",editedByType:"Edited by",editors:[{id:"528",title:"Dr.",name:"Kresimir",surname:"Delac",slug:"kresimir-delac",fullName:"Kresimir Delac"}],productType:{id:"1",chapterContentType:"chapter",authoredCaption:"Edited by"}}]},chapter:{item:{type:"chapter",id:"54893",title:"Cognitive Factors and Risk Management of Concurrent Product Realisation",doi:"10.5772/intechopen.68398",slug:"cognitive-factors-and-risk-management-of-concurrent-product-realisation",body:'Nowadays, the companies involved in development and industrialization of new products or in the improvement of existing ones mostly deal with orders for a known client. The client not only expects a product of high quality at acceptable prices but also delivery in a term agreed upon [1, 2]. This means that the companies predominantly face project manufacturing processes instead of conventional continuous processes (Figure 1).
Processes in a manufacturing company.
Continuous processes run for an “indefinite time.” Based on demands of the market, they are used to define the necessary quantities of products, for which a process for their development and industrialization had been carried out before.
Project processes are carried out once or in regular intervals and are market oriented to reach a precisely defined goal, for a known client, usually with a higher added value. They have a limited expiration date.
A problem of risk management is relatively low in continuous processes, while it has a very important impact on the achievement of desired results/project goals in project processes.
The chapter only deals with cyclically recurring realization projects of an engineered product in a specific version and with projects that end with a transition to continuous production (e.g., engineering of a car component).
To reach a reduced time needed for product development and industrialization, strategies of concurrent engineering need to be included in processes of project management (parallelism, standardization, and integration), and a track‐and‐loop principle should be used to carry out activities [3]. Such projects will hereinafter be called concurrent product realization (CPR) projects.
Even though the strategies of parallelism, process integration, and the track‐and‐loop principle of implementation of project activities considerably shorten the time, reduce the costs, and achieve higher product qualities of the project [3], they may simultaneously be an important cause of risk events that might jeopardize the success of a project.
The importance of managing risks of CRP projects is very high although recurrent project processes are in question. These are the projects that are very precisely specified as to the time, the cost, and the quality, and any deviation from the project plan may result in a business and competitive loss for the company. The client and the company usually assume a joint risk for a successful realization of a project and product placement on the market at the very beginning of the project.
The companies often fear that a risk analysis might cause the projects to get paralyzed or that by identifying the risks we would get frightened and will therefore not carry out the project. In fact, risk management has the following benefits for the company [4]:
Organizational benefits relating to an increase in efficiency of project implementation—less errors, corrections, and delays due to efficient cooperation and direct communication among project participants.
Market benefits relating to success of projects—the more precisely the necessary times and costs for the implementation of a project are assessed, the more efficiently risks are managed, and the higher the earning in the implementation of a project and higher clients’ confidence.
Strategic benefits of risk management on projects are logical if market benefits of a larger number of successfully completed projects are correlated and if long‐term benefits for the company are assessed.
Planned risk management of CPR projects makes the company more trustworthy and more respected. Progressive project management with an established culture of risk adoption allows the company to operate much more efficiently and successfully in the time of constant changes.
Risks of an entire project or its activities [5] are potential events or situations that may jeopardize a planned implementation of a project. The most important in managing risk events of a project is use of various tools for analysis, evaluation, planning, and carrying out of measures to prevent or at least reduce the influence of risk events.
Several models and methods are available for managing risks of an entire project and of individual project activities [5–10]. The suggested risk management methods are similar to each other, a difference lies in a detail of subdivision of the entire risk management process to subprocesses. Table 1 illustrates a comparison of four various concepts [5–8], which were a basis for designing a model for risk management in the case of CPR projects.
The first three models are a general approach to project risk management and include methods and techniques that are generally applicable on any project. Colin’s model proved to be the most appropriate basis for a development of a risk management model in CPR projects since individual phases of a risk analysis are very precisely defined.
A critical analysis of the discussed models and methods of project risk management supported by experiences in implementing projects in an industrial environment, particularly in car industry, led the authors to design a method for activity risk management of a project that is shown in Figure 2.
Risk management method of CPR projects.
In the suggested method, the analysis of project risks and their activities is carried out in seven consecutive steps:
Step 1. Preliminary analysis of project risk management.
Step 2. Project risk identification/assessment.
Step 3. Activity risk identification/assessment.
Step 4. Qualitative and quantitative analysis of activity risks.
Step 5. Planning risk management measures.
Step 6. Monitoring, recording, control, and taking measures.
Step 7. Analysis, evaluation, and archiving.
Compared to the reference models of project risk management [5–8], the suggested methods differ in the following items:
A phase of project risk analysis is separated from the project activity risk analysis.
Assessment of risk parameters and a method for the assessment of project activity risks are logically linked to each other.
A two‐dimensional (for one‐time projects) and a three‐dimensional (in cyclically recurrent projects) level of activity risk can be calculated.
The use of a table of critical success factors is suggested for a qualitative and a quantitative analysis and for planning and monitoring preventive and corrective measures.
Evaluation of project activity risk management and formation of new knowledge based on experience obtained from a completed project are emphasized.
When designing the suggested risk management model of CPR projects, we predominantly relied on the Colin’s concept [8], therefore, Table 2 shows the main differences between them.
Apart from the steps of performing a project risk analysis and a project activity analysis, the suggested method includes the most often applied work methods that a project manager and a project team can use in the implementation of an individual step of the risk analysis.
In literature, different processes and methods for risk management of project activities were proposed, but we did not notice any solution where cognitive factors and risk management of concurrent product realization were connected. Most of the methods are based on two‐dimensional risk analysis, therefore, we suggest a use of third factor—assessment of frequency of recurrence of risk events.
To the basic Microsoft Project software, a Monte Carlo method can be added, but this solution is insufficient for integration of cognitive factors with risk analyses.
Based on these facts and the experiences from real industrial environment (especially automotive industry), new individual steps of the suggested method for managing cyclically recurrent project activity risks with respect to cognitive factors are described with an emphasis on a detailed description of solutions suggested by the authors for the implementations of Steps 4 and 5.
A project team conducts a creativity workshop to establish possible project risks with respect to strategic, organizational, and project goals. The team also analyses the stakeholders’ impact on risks.
The risks are divided into business‐related and project‐related risks. Business‐related risks especially have influence on a decision, whether a project is feasible or reasonable, whereas project‐related risks have influence on decisions how to carry out a project in the most successful way with respect to the goals and given circumstances.
In implementing this step, the project team uses a SWOT analysis, in which advantages, disadvantages, opportunities, and dangers related to project implementation and consequently its risks are defined.
Based on the findings of the SWOT analysis, the project team and the client who ordered the project conclude whether the risk is acceptable and the project will be carried out or that there is too much risk involved and the project will not be carried out.
For identifying/assessing project risks, the project team can use one of the following models [9]:
Standard model, in which the risk is defined by two parameters: a risk event and its impact on the course of the project.
Simple model, in which the risk is defined by one parameter referring to the risk event and its impact.
Cascade model, in which the risk is defined by the risk event, consequences, and impact on the course of the project.
Ishikawa model, in which causes and respective risk events are determined for project‐related risks. The project team uses this model to identify those risk causes and risk events that have the greatest impact on the implementation of the project in question.
An analysis of application of said models in real life has shown that the most adequate model for identifying project‐related risks of development and industrialization of products/services is the Ishikawa model (Figure 3) which has the following advantages:
Ishikawa model for identifying CPR project risks.
The companies are already acquainted with the Ishikawa model as one of efficient tools for total quality management (TQM).
The model clearly illustrates why project risks occur.
Separate risk events allow prevention.
The model supports the cause‐effect concept.
A disadvantage of the Ishikawa model is its complexity in case of a larger project and its inability to show interactions between influences of the same risk event in different risk causes [9].
The Ishikawa model for identifying project risks may be used both for identifying risks of the entire project or individual project activities.
When identifying CPR project risks, apart from the risks that are usual for development and industrialization of a product, there is a strong presence of risks that may be caused by process complexity due to performance of concurrent engineering loops.
The risks which may be due to the performance of concurrent engineering loops may be caused by the following:
Poorly defined concurrent engineering loop and the activities performed within the loop.
Lack of knowledge and willingness to participate by various individuals who make up working teams who simultaneously perform activities within the loop.
Poor communication among individuals who perform activities that are carried out in parallel.
Inadequately selected communication tools.
For the purpose of a quantitative analysis of project activity risks, a project team may use techniques of collecting and presenting the data, e. g., recurrence frequency of risk event, wherein the findings from previously completed similar projects are taken into consideration, or a method of an itemized structure of project activity risks [10]. Apart from that, the methods indicated in Section 2.2 may be used, especially the Ishikawa model.
The method of the itemized structure of project risks is the most adequate method for practical use. In this structure, the standard WBS project structure [5, 10] is expanded by risks identified for each individual activity. If a risk is not identifiable at a certain activity, the risk is left out. An itemized structure of project activity risks is shown in Figure 4.
Itemized structure of CPR project activity risks.
In the concurrent product realization, the same activity may be present in two or more loops, wherein identical or different risks may appear in all loops.
The qualitative and quantitative analysis of project activity risks is performed by assessing [5, 7]:
Probability of occurrence of a problem/risk event.
Consequences of the problem/risk event.
Determining a risk level.
To assess the probability of occurrence of a risk event, either an interval assessment scale with rates from 1 to 5 or a scale with descriptive probability rates [5] can be used. For simplicity reasons, a scale with rates from 1 to 5 is usually applied in practice.
The values given in Table 3 are used to assess the probability of occurrence of a problem/risk event.
PMBOK 2013 | PRINCE2 | DOD Risk management | COLIN |
---|---|---|---|
Plan risk management | Identify risk | Identify risk | Risk content |
Identify risks | Preliminary risk identification | ||
Detailed risk identification | |||
Perform quantitative risk analysis | Assess risk | Risk analysis | Detailed risk analysis |
Perform qualitative risk analysis | Risk mitigation planning | Detailed risk evaluation | |
Plan risk responses | Risk plan | Risk mitigation plan implementation | Risk treatment planning |
Prepare risk management plan | |||
Monitor and control risks | Implement and communicate | Risk tracking | Risk monitoring and control |
Review |
Overview of several models for project risk management.
Steps of the Colin’s model | Steps of the suggested model | Differences |
---|---|---|
1. Establishing a context | 1. Preliminary analysis of project risk management |
|
2. Preliminary risk analysis | ||
3. Detailed risk identification | 2. Project risk identification |
|
3. Activity risk identification | ||
4. Detailed risk analysis | 4. Qualitative and quantitative analysis of activity risks |
|
5. Detailed risk evaluation | ||
6. Risk treatment (planning) | 5. Planning risk management measures |
|
7. Prepare risk management plan | ||
8. Risk monitoring and control | 6. Monitoring, recording, control and feedback | |
9. Review | 7. Analysis, evaluation, and archiving |
|
Overview of differences between the discussed risk analysis models.
Estimate | Probability of event occurrence—EP |
---|---|
1 | Very little (~10%) |
2 | Little (~30%) |
3 | Medium (~50%) |
Probability of occurrence of a risk event.
The values given in Table 4 are used to assess consequences of occurrence of a problem/risk event.
Estimate | Assessment of consequences of event occurrence—EC |
---|---|
1 | Very small |
2 | Small |
3 | Medium |
4 | Big |
5 | Very big |
Assessment of consequences of risk event occurrence.
The project team may perform a qualitative risk assessment by means of a probability and impact matrix [7] or can calculate a rate of project activity risk [4] based on the assessment of probability of occurrence of a risk event and the assessment of consequences of risk occurrence. The rate of activity risk in the two‐dimensional analysis is
where RL2 is the rate of activity risk in the two‐dimensional analysis of a project activity risk; EP is the probability of occurrence of an activity risk event; and EC is the assessment of consequences of occurrence of an activity risk event.
The data on the quantitative and qualitative risk analyses of a certain project activity are entered into the table of critical success factors as shown in Table 5.
No. | WBS code/activity/problem | Event probability—EP | Assessment of consequences—EC | Risk rate—RL2 |
---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Activity 1/problem A | 3 | 2 | 6 |
2. | Activity 2/problem B | 2 | 4 | 8 |
: | : | : | : | : |
j. | Activity j/problem N | 4 | 5 | 20 |
: | : | : | : | : |
n | Activity n/problem X | 4 | 5 | 20 |
Table of critical success factors—two‐dimensional analysis.
Instead of calculating the risk rate, the project team may use the probability and impact matrix [7].
As this chapter discusses the risks in cyclically recurrent projects, the experience obtained from previously performed similar projects can be used for the assessment of the frequency of recurrence of risk event occurrence [4].
Example: in its product realization, a company plans activities such as client’s confirming documentation and samples. The time needed for the implementation of these activities is planned, however, a client frequently, yet not always, exceeds the planned time. Hence, this is a recurrent risk event.
To assess the frequency of recurrence of risk events, the authors suggest the values indicated in Table 6.
Estimate | Assessment of event recurrence frequency—ER |
---|---|
1 | Never |
2 | Very rarely |
3 | Rarely |
4 | Often |
5 | Very often |
Assessment of recurrence frequency of a risk event.
The level of project activity risk in the three‐dimensional analysis is
where RL3 is the level of activity risk in the three‐dimensional analysis of activity risk; EP is the probability of occurrence of an activity risk event; EC is the assessment of consequences of occurrence of an activity risk event; and ER is the assessment of frequency of recurrence of a risk event.
Table 7 shows an example of calculation of critical success factors for the three‐dimensional risk analysis.
Risk analysis | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
No. | WBS code/activity/problem | Event probability—EP | Assessment of consequences—EC | Assessment of recurrence frequency—ER | Rate of risk—RL3 |
1. | Activity 1/problem A | 3 | 2 | 4 | 24 |
2. | Activity 2/problem B | 2 | 4 | 4 | 32 |
: | : | ||||
j. | Activity j/problem N | 4 | 5 | 5 | 100 |
: | : | : | : | : | |
n | Activity n/problem X | 4 | 5 | 3 | 60 |
Table of critical success factors—three‐dimensional analysis.
Once the two‐dimensional risk analysis is completed, it should be determined—based on the assessment of probability of event occurrence and the assessment of its consequences, based on a decision matrix [5, 7]—whether the activity risk is low, medium, or high.
In the suggested three‐dimensional risk analysis, the activity risk is determined based on predefined boundary values of a rate/probability of risk [4]:
If RL ≤ 24 (risk probability up to 20%), the risk is low.
If 25 ≤ RL ≤ 60 (risk probability between 20 and 50%), the risk is medium.
If RL ≥ 61 (risk probability higher than 50%), the risk is high.
If the risk is low, the project team does not prepare potential measures.
If the risk is medium, the project team prepares preventive measures directed at eliminating causes for the occurrence of risk events. If a risk event occurs anyway, the project team must immediately prepare corrective measures.
In the event of a huge risk, the project team prepares both preventive measures to prevent the occurrence of risk events (risk elimination, lowering of probability of realization, transfer of risks) and corrective measures (active adoption of risks) that can trigger processes for alleviation of consequences of a risk event.
We suggest using Table 8, which is an amendment of Table 7, for entering the measures together with responsible owners.
Risk analysis | Risk management | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No. | WBS code/activity/problem | Event probability—EP | Estimate of consequences—EC | Estimate of recurrence frequency—ER | Risk rate—RL3 | Measures | Risk owner | Indicator |
P—preventive | ||||||||
C—corrective | ||||||||
1. | Activity 1/problem A | 3 | 2 | 4 | 24 | |||
2. | Activity 2/problem B | 2 | 4 | 4 | 32 | P—prevent. measure 1 | Project manager | |
: | : | : | : | : | : | : | : | : |
j. | Activity j/problem N | 4 | 5 | 5 | 100 | P—prevent. measure 2 | Head of develop. | Delay x days |
C—Corr. measure 1 | ||||||||
: | : | : | : | : | ||||
n | Activity n/problem x | 4 | 4 | 3 | 48 | P—measure 3 | Project manager |
Amended table of critical success factors.
Table 8 was also the basis for a template in the Microsoft Project software that allows the project manager and the project team to plan, monitor, control, and take measures if a risk event occurs in an activity.
This approach provides more opportunities to the project team and other project stakeholders for identification of potential risk events and searching for possible solutions for elimination or mitigation of risk consequences based on thinking out of the box with the use of cognitive factors. Based on this approach, the solutions for risk management are more sufficient, creative, innovative, and clearly described and collected in one place.
Responsibility for monitoring project activity risks and their implementation lies with: project manager, project team, client, and individuals performing the activities.
Responsibility of a risk owner should be determined for each risk. The risk owner has a task to detect a symptom of an approaching risk as soon as possible and to trigger planned measures accordingly. The sooner a risk is discovered, the less serious the consequences.
The project manager verifies the status of risks at regular control briefings and amends a list of risks if necessary. The team must bear in mind that the level of risk can vary during the entire project—there is a higher possibility of one risk getting realized in a certain phase and of another risk getting realized in another phase. To have a better control, the risks should be specified in the table by size and topicality.
Several approaches are suggested to reduce the level of project risks:
Active risk assumption.
Risk elimination.
Reduction in probability of risk realization.
Alleviation of consequences by transferring risks to another organization.
Passive assumption of risks with a reserve in time and money.
Active risk assumption means that a plan of measures is prepared for the event of occurrence of an activity risk event. Usually, reserves in time and money are foreseen to solve the consequences of the occurred risks.
A risk may be completely avoided by eliminating or circumventing a cause for its occurrence. The latter is possible by changing a project plan, wherein a change is applied on the entire project or only an individual phase, activity duration, tactics of activity implementation, supplier, or contractor. A new plan which attempts to circumvent a risk can be defined as an alternative method for achieving key events and can be more expensive.
Another way of risk elimination is elimination of certain requirements by the client that are hardly achievable and represent various risks (time, costs, and quality). This mode of risk elimination includes negotiations with the client, and when deciding, a size of a risk must be compared with the positive effect of realization of the client’s or customer’s requirement.
By listing a risk to the risk list, a probability of occurrence of a risk event is automatically reduced due to subsequent systematic control. Planned reduction in probability can be achieved by additional activities and costs; there are also measures such as better and more expensive equipment, better and more expensive technology for the implementation, assistance of external experts, and preliminary simulations.
When a reduction in risk consequences is in question, the best solution is to transfer the risk to another organization. Among participants in a project the risks may be transferred to the client, an external contractor or supplier, wherein the transfer of risks (delays and extra costs) is defined by a contract [11]. As the risk owners tend to avoid extra costs, a probability of occurrence is consequently reduced. Another way of alleviating the consequences is insurance. Insurance is the most adequate when a huge risk is encountered, the probability of occurrence is rather low but may have devastating consequences for the project.
The more project activities on a critical path, the riskier the project since a delay in critical activities has a direct impact on a delay of the entire project. Time reserves in noncritical activities can be an important factor for risk reduction due to a delay in the implementation of activities.
Microsoft Project is a tool often used in information support to project management, therefore the Laboratory for Manufacturing Systems of the Faculty of Mechanical Engineering in Ljubljana has decided in cooperation with partners in companies to integrate the presented expanded methodology of project activity risk management into previously created templates. Although a server version of the Microsoft Project offers a possibility of use of the tool for risk analysis, we estimate that the suggested solution is simpler for a user yet very efficient. This allegation is especially confirmed by use of the expanded risk analysis on several projects from industrial environment [12, 13].
Once a project is completed, the project team, apart from performing other analyses, performs a risk management evaluation to establish which anticipated risk events have actually happened, what the consequences were and how efficient the preventive and corrective measures were.
All documents related to risk management are archived and the database of knowledge about risks is adequately amended.
The suggested method for project activity risk management was performed on an example of a project of concurrent development and industrialization of a pedal assembly for a personal vehicle as shown in Figure 5.
Pedal assembly for a personal vehicle.
A customer who develops a new car sent an order for development and industrialization of a pedal assembly to his development supplier. Since the terms for obtaining an order were very demanding in terms of time, costs, and quality, the management of the company decided to include as many elements of concurrent engineering in the project management of the pedal assembly as possible and to organize the project by the track‐and‐loop principle [3, 12, 13]. In fact, the company faced a huge risk because such mode of carrying out a project requires the project participants and the contractors to be well connected in terms of organization and information exchange.
It was for the first time that the company dealt with implementation of a risk analysis of such a project, and the management of the company therefore organized a creativity workshop [14], the goal of which was to identify all types of risks by means of the Ishikawa model, which can occur in the implementation of the CPR projects in their company.
The result of the creativity workshop is the Ishikawa chart (Figure 6), which includes four major causes for the occurrence of risk events in the CPR project of the pedal assembly.
Ishikawa chart of project risks of the CPR project of the pedal assembly.
Based on the created Ishikawa chart, the project team reviewed the WBS structure of the project of the pedal assembly, which was created by the principle of concurrent engineering loops and identified potential risk events in each activity.
Figure 7 depicts a track‐and‐loop principle of implementation of the CPR project of the pedal assembly, which is divided in six stages and five concurrent engineering loops (T‐3 loops).
Track‐and‐loop principle of implementation of the CPR project of the pedal assembly.
The WBS structure of the CPR project consists of five tasks at the first level, the tasks representing concurrent engineering loops. This is shown in Figure 8.
First level of the WBS structure of the CPR project of the pedal assembly.
The project team amended the WBS structure of the project with assessed potential activity risks and transformed the structure into an itemized structure of project risks by adding potential risk events to the activities. Figure 9 shows a more detailed itemization of loop 2: a loop of product development on the activity and on the last level on potential risk events.
Itemized structure of activities and risks of loop 2 of the CPR project of the pedal assembly.
The project team made a table of critical success factors for a qualitative and quantitative analysis of activity risks of the pedal assembly project. The team members have decided to perform a three‐dimensional risk analysis, in which it should be determined for each activity and the risk associated therewith—in compliance with the suggested model: probability of occurrence, assessment of consequences, and assessment of recurrence frequency of a risk event, then the level or activity risk should be calculated. For the activities, in which the risk is medium or high, preventive, or corrective measures and status indicators are foreseen.
Figure 10 shows the part of the table of critical success factors for loop 2 of the pedal assembly.
Table of critical success factors of loop 2 of the pedal assembly project (part).
The table of the critical success factors empowered us to identify several potential risks in each activity and to take the maximum value as the level of activity risk.
As the company uses Microsoft Project software for planning and managing projects, we used a standard template for activity risk management of the project (Microsoft Project template).
The project manager inserted the data from Figure 10 into a prepared template, the result is shown in Figure 11.
Activity risk analysis of the pedal assembly project of loop 2 in MS Project (part).
The advantage of the suggested template for managing activity risks of the project is the fact that the software tool which serves for planning time, resources, and project activity costs can also be used to manage activity risks of the project.
Apart from the advantages, the suggested template also has a limitation. If several potential risks are identified at an activity, only a risk having the maximum level of activity risk is entered in table in Figure 11, the remaining risks are noted in a notepad of activities.
The project manager, the project team members, and the individuals performing activities can obtain the following data from the table in Figure 11:
Short risk description.
Assessment of probability of event occurrence.
Assessment of consequences of event occurrence.
Assessment of frequency of event occurrence.
Level of risk and risk indicator (in colors).
Responsibility for risk management.
Link to a document containing a detailed description of risks and measures.
The color of the risk indicator visually draws attention of the project manager and the team members to the level of risk of an individual activity and to foresee preventive and corrective measures.
A level of risk of the entire project is interesting for a comparison of risk of a project with risks of other projects. We decided based on Ref. [15] that a risk level of activity groups and of the entire project is calculated as an average level of activity risk (the lowest level of a WBS project). Of course, an average risk level of a project can only be a statistical piece of data and can be deceiving if uncritically discussed. It may happen that a project has a low average risk level, but includes activities that have a high‐risk level. If a risk event occurs in these activities, the project might be seriously jeopardized in terms of foreseen scope, time, and cost.
Apart from the risk indicator, other indicators that warn us of other project‐related dangers can be included in the table in Figure 11, for instance delays in time, consumption of time reserve, and excess in actual costs compared to the planned ones.
In the case of the pedal assembly project, an overview of risks by CPR loops (Figure 12) was made. It can be determined that most risk events occur in loop 3, i.e., a loop of process development.
Overview of risks by CPR project loops.
Moreover, an overview by risk rate size (Figure 13) was made for a more detailed analysis. It shows that most potential risk events belong to a medium‐risk category (49 risk events), high risks come second (24 risk events), and low risks with 14 risk events are in the last place.
Overview of risks with respect to the level of risk.
Both analyses performed show that the project of the concurrent realization of the pedal assembly is very risky and this demands from the project team to pay more attention to risk management of this project.
The proposed method requires comprehensive approach for cognitive solving of the risk management problems of concurrent product realization with the use of three factors and three different views on the same risk, which provides better solutions based on team work. Team work is based on a multidisciplinary team of different members for different organizational units of the company and external stakeholders. This helps a company to detect and solve the main causes of risk based on different point of view taking into account various human and cognitive factors.
This solution is integrated in the proposed model for cognitive risk management and supported with a template in the Microsoft Project software.
This paper presented a problem of risk management in CPR projects that are market oriented, i.e., in projects of products and services. It was determined that in such cyclically recurrent projects we frequently run into recurringly similar causes that cause a risk in the implementation of project activities.
In CPR projects, classic methods of project management are upgraded by concurrent engineering elements and a track‐and‐loop principle of performance of activities is used, hence, we face a huge need for managing risks that may appear in the implementation of the concurrent engineering loops [12, 16]. These risks most often occur because of poor team work, unfamiliarity with the tools of concurrent engineering and lack of cooperation and communication among activity performers (working teams) in concurrent engineering loops. Not only a team responsible for the implementation of the entire project is needed in the implementation of the concurrent engineering loops but also a need for creating working teams for the implementation of the loops [3]. Such team is made up of responsible persons of participants of organizational units who carry out activity loops. Since several activities are carried out in parallel, there is a need for permanent and direct communication between activity performers. Although such projects are cyclically recurrent in companies, it was established that the risk events keep occurring each time a project is repeated.
We therefore suggested a method for managing activity risks of a CPR project, in which a third parameter was added to the generally known two‐dimensional method of risk analysis—the recurrence frequency of a problem. This piece of data can be evaluated based on the evaluation of previously performed or completed projects. The introduction of this additional parameter has proved to be utterly necessary since it was claimed both by product customers and auditors of a company’s project management system.
If the frequency rate of problem recurrence is high and does not have a tendency to reduce in subsequent similar projects, this is a clear indicator that a company does not manage/efficiently eliminate permanently recurring problems. This is an important indicator for the management of a company to urgently adopt adequate measures. A further goal of the suggested method is to gradually reduce the frequency rates of recurrent problems (the goal is rate 1) and to gradually make a transition to a two‐dimensional risk analysis.
Since the companies often use the Microsoft Project software to support project management, the Faculty of Mechanical Engineering of Ljubljana in cooperation with partner companies prepared an additional table in support of conventional templates. The table allows a risk analysis in the Microsoft Project environment. The use of such template has proved to be a useful tool since project managers can use the same software to plan and carry out risk management measures.
In the future work, current Microsoft Project templates could be generalized for business use, especially in small companies.
The proposed solution will be extended with the design of threshold area of expected loss, which is an important information for decision‐making of risk mitigation or elimination.
Avian Influenza (AI) is influenza A virus of avian origin, which may cause disease in domestic and wild birds and in some cases can infect mammalian species, including humans. The highly pathogenic variant (HPAI) has spread to more than 60 countries in Africa, Asia, Australia, Europe and North and South America only within decades. The disease has continuously involved in detrimental impact to poultry farms despite global efforts towards control and eradication. The Indonesian lineage has attracted human health community for its zoonotic attribute by demonstrating the capacity for causing three family cluster cases (West Java, Banten and North Sumatera) with one of them being the largest case in human AI history [1, 2, 3]. However, surveillance of H5N1 antibody in poultry farmers from human H5N1 outbreak areas was reported and not detected [4].
\nMolecular identification on samples obtained during surveillance for H5N1 virus in municipal of Muntilan, Center Java, conducted by Regional Influenza Working Group, after suspected human H5N1 infection announced in 2005, were able to identify H5N1 virus in pet animals and fish pond in the housing areas. However, virus sequences are not available. The number of human deaths in Indonesia were outgrowing to 150 by 2011 (Figure 1) [2, 5, 6, 7] with 46% reported to have direct contact with infected poultry [7]. Although, to date the virus demonstrated inefficient person-to-person transmission, ongoing outbreaks in poultry pose warning to possibly establish human reassortant Avian Influenza virus [8]. New outbreaks of H5N1 in 2014 in Cambodia, China, India, Korea, Lybia, Russia and Vietnam have shown high adaptability in a heterogeneous ecosystem, requiring urgent need for reliable surveillance tool to improved strategies to control and eradicate this enzootic disease.
\nNumber of human Avian Influenza A (H5N1) cases by reporting country and month of onset (Taken from the World Health Organisation. Influenza at human-animal interface. Summary and assessment as of 1 May 2015 https://www.who.int/influenza/human_animal_interface/Influenza_Summary_IRA_HA_interface_1_May_2015.pdf).
Part of the HA protein that binds to the host receptor [called the receptor binding site (RBS)] has a unique amino acid arrangement which contributes to viral specificity to the host [9].
\nInfection occurs when the viral ligand binds to a glycoprotein or glycolipid receptors on the cell surface possessing sialylgalactose terminal group [Neu5Ac (α2-3) Gal] or [Neu5Ac (α2-6) Gal]. Influenza virus of 226Gln and 228Gly avian origin prefers to bind to [Neu5Ac (α2-3) Gal], while influenza virus of 226Leu and 228Ser human origin binds specifically to [Neu5Ac (α2-6) Gal] [9, 10]. The fact the epithelial cells of human respiratory tract mainly contain [Neu5Ac (α2-6) Gal], while the majority in chicken is [Neu5Ac (α2-3) Gal], has provided an explanation the avian origin virus cannot readily infect humans. The shift in host specificity is possible due to the changes in amino acids in RBS through genetic mutations. Experimentally substituting an amino acid of Ser228Gly in addition to Leu226Gln of human origin virus has supported viral replication in duck intestines [11]. Although, solely mutation event of single amino acid in RBS was adequately altering binding specificity to the receptor [12, 13]. Amino acid substitution Ser227Asn in highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) H5N1 of Asia strain decreases its affinity for the receptor [Neu5Ac (α2-3) Gal] and gives the virus ability to bind to [Neu5Ac (α2-6) Gal] moderately. This indicates that mutations in RBS are capable to induce cross-species transmission without genetic reassortment [14].
\nA genetic rearrangement between influenza viruses of avian origin and influenza viruses from mammals has the potential to emerge new pandemic influenza virus strains in humans. Classical genetic reassortment model has settled pigs as mixing vessel to both viruses. The basis of the model is the specificity of the influenza virus strain to the host cell surface receptors [15, 16].
\nThe emergence of four influenza pandemics, 1918 (H1N1), 1957 (H2N2), 1968 (H3N2), and 1977 (H1N1) was not due to genetic reassortment in pigs. The specificities of the receptors in haemagglutinin gene of 1918 virus vary between strains. Isolates A/South Caroline/1/18 tend to bind to [Neu5Ac (α2-6) Gal] receptors, while isolates A/New York/1/18 have the ability to bind both [Neu5Ac (α2-6) Gal] and [Neu5Ac (α2-3) Gal] receptors. Compared to the H1 virus from avian origin in general, isolates A/New York/1/18 differ only in amino acid 190. The viral HA mutation in this position from Asp to Glu decreases the ability of the virus to bind to the [Neu5Ac (α2-6) Gal] receptor and increases preference to the [Neu5Ac (α2-3) Gal] (avian receptor) [13]. The avian influenza virus that caused the outbreak in Asia in 2003–2004 did not show such characteristics. Some viruses isolated from Vietnam, Thailand, Hong Kong and Indonesia, both from human and avian, show similarities in amino acid sequences in the RBS area and have a preference for binding to [Neu5Ac (α2-3) Gal] (avian receptors) [12, 17, 18, 19].
\nHighly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) has been a major problem for poultry industry in Indonesia till today. Since first announced in 2003–2004 (Figure 2), H5N1 outbreak was rapidly spread to most provinces, before abated by the end of 2007, after causing death to more than 16 million poultry [2, 5, 7]. In April 2011, a new outbreak was reported from Gorontalo, leaving only one province free of disease [20].
\nH5N1 Avian Influenza poultry epidemic in Indonesia. (Map by Free Vector Maps. https://freevectormaps.com/indonesia/ID-EPS-01-0003).
Phylogenetic analysis of Indonesian 2.1. clade virus indicated direct precursor-descendant link to viruses of genotype Z, isolated from Hunan province, China in 2002, presumably as single introduction. However, the spread and transmission from Hunan to Indonesia remained unclear [21, 22].
\nUp to the year 2008, all Indonesian H5N1 viruses have been classified into clade 2.1, with three virus sublineages: 2.1.1, 2.1.2 and 2.1.3. The viruses within clade 2.1.1 were mainly isolated from HPAI-infected poultry during the outbreaks between 2003 and 2005. The clade 2.1.2 viruses were isolated from avian- and human-derived predominantly from Sumatra between 2004 and 2007, while clade 2.1.3 viruses discovered in 2004, were isolated either from birds or from humans. Interestingly, when clade 2.1.3 viruses have begun to predominate, the numbers of clade 2.1.1 and 2.1.2 isolates were subsequently declined. Although 2.1.3 viruses have spread and become endemic in many provinces in Indonesia, a new sublineage virus has emerged since 2004. In September 2012, several duck farms from Central Java have reported high mortality of AIV H5 subtype. Interestingly, the HA genes of the duck isolates were not related to long-established Indonesian clade 2.1 isolates but closely resembled clade 2.3.2.1 viruses, which recently were found in Vietnam, China and Hong Kong [23].
\nBali Island has reported only one human death because of Avian Influenza until 2017, although Bali is speculated as an ideal environment for influenza re-assortment: world-renowned tourism destination, suckling pigs, and fighting cocks tradition. Circulating A(H5N1) viruses obtained during surveillance of A(H5N1) viruses in Bali between 2009 and 2011 concluded clade 2.1 [24, 25]. Although incident of human death has occurred in Bali, the HA gene analysis at 226Q and 228G of chicken isolates yet showed binding preference to avian host. However, a single mutation finding at S137A has shown the potential of recognizing human receptor. Although evolution analysis of obtained isolates from Bali (A/Ck/Klungkung/T/2009 and A/Ck/Bali/Y/2009) is unable to determine due to lack of HA gene sequences of Indonesian isolate available in GenBank, phylogenetic analysis has clustered these isolates with the only Indonesian domestic cat virus (Figure 3). Consistent with the outbreak in Thailand, the HA gene of pigeon, chicken, tiger, and human isolates were closely related [26]. The potency of pigs as a mixing vessel for avian virus to adapt in human host is also unable to analyze due to the lack of available sequences in GenBank. However, the phylogenetic analysis of swine virus from Bali showed a close relation to other pig and chicken viruses within the corresponding year [27].
\nPhylogenetic tree analysis of A/Ck/Klungkung/T/2009 and A/Ck/Bali/Y/2009 A (H5N1) compared to other sequences of poultry, human, swine and human Indonesia available in GenBank. A/Goose/Guangdong/1997 was served as outgroup in rooted neighbour-joining calculation. The scale indicated 0.02 nt substitution per site. The analysis was performed using Geneious R.10 (Biomatters, Ltd).
Surveillance of A(H5N1) viruses in live bird markets (LBM) during 2012-2013 indicated that most viruses were HPAIV (H5N1), which were related to other clade 2.1.3.2a viruses. The surveillance also detected LPAIV A (H3N8) A/environment/West Java/KRW54/2012, which forms outlier with other LPAI H3 of Eurasian lineage. The A (H3N8) also demonstrated 90% nucleotide identical to A/Duck/Siberia/100/2001. Importantly, genetic reassortment among AIV isolates is occurred by contribution of internal and NA gene segments of LPAIV virus into HPAIV (H5N1) clade 2.1.3.2a virus. Three reassortant viruses (A/Muscovy Duck/East Java/SB29/2012, A/Muscovy Duck/East Java/LM47/ 2012 and A/Ck/East Java/BP21/2012) possessed PB2, PB1 and NS genes of LPAI virus, while the surface glycoproteins (HA and NA) and other internal genes (PA, NP and M) were contribution of HPAI A(H5N1) virus lineage. The experimental data of the reassortant HPAI A(H5N1) viruses showed slight attenuation possibly due to acquisition of LPAI internal genes to HPAI virus [8]. In 2017, the government of Indonesia has officially announced the introduction of enzootic H9N2 subtype; however, it is still poorly documented. The introduction of LPAIV A(H9N2) may possess new hidden endemic zoonotic threat. Chinese Centre for Diseases Control and Prevention has highlighted the role of H9N2 as “incubators” to facilitate new zoonotic human avian strain [28].
\nSince 2004, the Indonesian Government have been applying vaccination in poultry to control AIV H5N1 and simultaneously intensify biosecurity in poultry farm, conducting active diseases surveillance, application of stamping-out policy limited to endemic area and extensive to newly infected area, and improving public awareness of the disease [29, 30]. Although vaccine can be used as a prevention tool, it does not provide full protection or “sterilising immunity” [31]. Vaccine application for Avian Influenza in the field is recommended to allow to serologically differentiate vaccinated birds from infected (DIVA) [32, 33, 34]. Proposed strategy for DIVA by the use of sentinel chickens has been conducted in West Java [30, 35]. However, as possible, new infections in the flock may originate from these sentinel naive birds, which may acquire infection prior to being placed; this DIVA strategy has not received widespread acceptance in Indonesia. Several alternative strategies using viral protein for marker in chickens have been developed, that is, NS1 [36, 37], M2e [38, 39] and HA2 [40, 41].
\nThe pathological features of Avian Influenza infection in poultry since the first outbreak in Indonesia have undergone slight changes over time. The pathological changes are currently showing milder description compared to classical discovery in the middle of 2003. Avian Influenza viruses in poultry were reported to produce asymptomatic to mild upper respiratory infections, egg production loss to rapid fatal systemic disease [42].
\nPathogenicity attributes of AI virus were categorised as low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIV) and highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIV) [43, 44]. The low pathogenic variant (LPAI) in poultry describes signs of respiratory diseases [43, 45], while high pathogenic variant (HPAI) demonstrates severe systemic signs with necrotic and inflammatory lesions of skin, viscera and brain [46, 47, 48], although mortality may occur in the absence of clinical signs [42]. The degree of clinical manifestations and recovery rate of the birds are notably age-related. Older birds generally recover within a week, since the onset of clinical signs. Conversely, younger birds are suffering from severe respiratory symptoms as of reflecting in high mortality rates (40–97%). Furthermore, co-infection of other secondary pathogens also contribute to high mortality [45]. Low-pathogenic infection is typically demonstrating low mortality (<5%) accompanied by high morbidity (>50%) [44, 45], contrarily, infection by HPAI virus results in 100% mortality of susceptible poultry species [43, 48].
\nLow pathogenic variant AI demonstrates clinically mild to severe respiratory signs, i.e., coughing, sneezing, swollen infraorbital, excessive ocular and nasal discharge [43, 44]. Infected birds, in general show lethargy, mild weight loss, neurological signs, occasional diarrhoea and sudden drop in eggs production from 30 to 80% during acute phase [43, 44, 45, 49]. In humans, a high viral load in pharynx resulted in fatality [50].
\nPresented clinical signs of infected birds depend on the species and age of the host, virus strain and also the pathophysiological changes in the respiratory, digestive, urinary, nervous and reproductive systems [44, 51, 52]. Hence, avian influenza virus pathobiology varies among strains and the host species. Therefore, pathobiology characters of new avian influenza virus are important to control the outbreaks and understand the epidemiology of this disease [53].
\nClinical signs and pathological features of H5N1 in layer chickens from East Java, Central Java, West Java and Yogyakarta during 2003–2005 outbreaks have demonstrated depression, loss of appetite, neurologic disorder, respiratory disorder, egg production drop and diarrhoea [54]. These clinical signs were similar to previously described infections naturally or experimentally with highly pathogenic avian influenza virus in domestic poultry [44, 45, 51, 55, 56].
\nOn post-mortem examination of infected chicken showed severe subcutaneous haemorrhages, oedema in the wattles, head, neck, and the leg shanks appeared haemorrhages [55]. However, Mutinelli et al. [45] and Elbers et al. [57] also described peritonitis; haemorrhage, enlarged and hardened of pancreas; enlarged with whitish and dark brown haemorrhage of liver areas. In a few cases, proventriculus and ventriculus showed petechial haemorrhages [45, 55, 57], haemorrhages of comb and wattles, ecchymose haemorrhages in the skin of the breast and abdomen [47]. Similar lesions such as cyanotic wattles, swollen head and comb, haemorrhages in the skeletal muscles, abdominal fat, proventriculus and feet were also observed in chicken during 2003–2005 Avian Influenza outbreaks in Indonesia [54]. Furthermore, in layer chickens, haemorrhagic ovary and atrophy oviduct were also found [54, 56, 58]. Similar findings in mute and whooper swans infected by HPAI, was showing coalescent haemorrhages with necrosis in the pancreas [59, 60], kidney enlargement yet elastic without deposits of uric acid [45].
\nRecent case in layer chicken of 40 weeks from East Java (August, 2018) with cyanotic wattles (Figure 4), brain congestion (Figure 5), haemorrhages in the feet (Figure 6) and proventriculus (Figure 7), haemorrhages and adhesion between ovarian follicles (Figure 8), haemorrhage of abdominal fat (Figure 9), haemorrhage of pectoral muscles (Figure 10), swollen and oedematous kidney (Figure 11). The farm experienced 20% mortality rates within 3 weeks and the egg production dropped by 18% suddenly in 5 days. Vaccination for avian influenza H5 was done at 14 weeks of chick age. Molecular identification was confirming H5 subtype. In a few cases, virus can be isolated from properly vaccinated flock [61].
\nLatest cases of Avian Influenza: Cyanotic wattles (Courtesy: Dr. Sitarina Widyarini).
Latest cases of Avian Influenza: Brain congestion (Courtesy: Dr. Sitarina Widyarini).
Latest case of Avian Influenza: Haemorrhages feet (Courtesy: Dr. Sitarina Widyarini).
Latest case of Avian Influenza: Proventriculus Haemorrhages (Courtesy: Dr. Sitarina Widyarini).
Latest case of Avian Influenza: Ovarial Haemorrhages (Courtesy: Dr. Sitarina Widyarini).
Latest case of Avian Influenza: Abdominal fat haemorrhages (Courtesy: Dr. Sitarina Widyarini).
Latest case of Avian Influenza: Pectoral muscles haemorrhages (Courtesy: Dr. Sitarina Widyarini).
Latest case of Avian Influenza: Swollen and oedematous kidney (Courtesy: Dr. Sitarina Widyarini).
Histopathological findings of HPAIV-infected chicken and turkey were dominated by acute haemorrhages (skin, under serous membrane, mucosae and pectoral muscles), oedema (skin of head, neck, legs and lungs) and necrosis (skin, pancreas, spleen and heart) [42, 46, 49, 55, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66]. The comb and wattles showed markedly severe cellulitis associated with congestion, oedema and mild heterophilic infiltration in the dermis and subcutis [55]. Lymphocytic meningo-encephalitis and meningo-encephalomyelitis with multifocal gliosis, degeneration of neuron, necrosis and neuronophagia, as well as mild-to-moderate perivascular cuffs, with predominance of macrophages and lymphocytes in both grey and white matter in the majority of brain region [60, 67, 68]. Necrosis with focal lymphohistiocytic infiltration in the myocardium, focal necrosis in the pancreas and other organs (e.g. lungs, lymphatic organs and skeletal muscles) are defined as important histopathological lesions [58, 60, 68].
\nHistological lesions associated with the presence of viral antigen were observed in the tissue of infected chickens. Several studies have observed intranuclear and intracytoplasmic viral antigens distribution at surrounding tissues of parenchymal myofibres and capillary endothelium of the heart, hepatocytes and sinusoidal endothelium of the liver, pulmonary endothelium, pancreas, kidney, central nervous system, leukocytes of the Peyer’s patches, bursa, epithelium of the adrenal glands, renal tubules and pancreatic acini [44, 55, 69, 70].
\nVaccine application and stringent biosecurity practices helped to suppress the viral load in the flock. As consequences, the morbidity and mortality rate is suppressed, the presentation of clinical signs is milder although the gross pathology features remained consistent. The introduction of H9N2 has initiated the new threat. Egg production drop is today mainly observed as an indication of infection regardless of the virus subtype, although as the latest published active surveillance data (2012–2013) continued blaming H5N1. The masking effect of partial low-level herd immunity may be responsible for the phenomenon.
\nVirus isolated from chicken with both specific and non-specific lesion between 2003 and 2006 showed high pathogenic avian influenza virus based on molecular marker analysis. Although vaccination has been applied, full viral characterisation continues, evaluation of antibody protective response after vaccination and differentiation between vaccinated and infected birds is needed. Cartography surveillance of avian virus is importantly required to understand cross-immunity of latest strains to use as vaccine seeds. Antigen panel is a must in order to predict future outbreak. Enforcement on regulation for live birds market (LBM) is a must, considering massive human death in China of novel reassortant virus. In addition, wild bird migration from Asia to high densities poultry farms population in Java could increase reassortment rate of circulating virus. Furthermore, the finding of A(H3N8) may trigger novel reassortant virus strain with zoonotic potential. Although, human cluster, Tangerang and Karo, is required for further research since the cases occurred only between people with genetic relation.
\nThe authors would like to express the highest appreciation to Nugroho, DVM, MSc, (Rosa Farm, Blitar, East Java) for supplying the samples.
\nThe authors Khrisdiana Putri, Sitarina Widyarini, Sugiyono and Widya Asmara have no conflict of interest to declare.
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The teams of researchers are working very hard to bring novel results in this field. I am also a member of the team in charge for the supervision of Ph.D. students in the fields of development of silicon based planar waveguide sensor devices, study of inelastic electron tunnelling in planar tunnelling nanostructures for sensing applications and development of organotellurium(IV) compounds for semiconductor applications. I am a specialist in data analysis techniques and nanosurface structure. 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