The aim of this study is to analyze the quantitative relationship between the volume of rainfall and landslide occurrence in South Korea. To predict future rainfall, a future climate scenario was developed by downscaling the regional climate model (RCM) from the global climate model (GCM) based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario. In this study, for a quantitative analysis of correlation between rainfall and landslides occurrence, data on rainfall and landslides in Korea in the 2000s was analyzed using the correlation between the occurrence of landslides and rainfall volume (daily and accumulated) and the maximum hourly intensity of rainfall. Daily rainfalls exceeding 164.5 mm is categorized as high risk for landslide. A rainfall that continued for 3 days was found to affect the occurrence of landslide in Korea in the 2000s more than any other number of days during which rainfall lasted. The research area for the future climate change scenarios (A1B) covers the entire area of South Korea. Annual average rainfall had increased by 271.23 mm during 1971–2100. The development of downscaling method using GIS and verification with observed data could reduce the uncertainty of future climate change projection.
Part of the book: Geohazards Caused by Human Activity