Chapters authored
Some Applicable Methods to Analyze and Optimize System Processes in Quality Management
Part of the book: Total Quality Management and Six Sigma
Probabilistic Modeling Processes for Oil and Gas
Different uncertainties are researched for providing safe and effective development of hydrocarbon deposits and rational operation of oil and gas systems (OGS). The original models and methods, applicable in education and practice for solving problems of system engineering, are proposed. These models allow us to analyze natural and technogenic threats for oil and gas systems on a probabilistic level for a given prognostic time. Transformation and adaptation of models are demonstrated by examples connected with non-destructive testing. The measures of counteraction to threats for the typical manufacturing processes of gas preparation equipment on enterprise are analyzed. The risks for pipelines, pumping liquefied natural gas across the South American territory, are predicted. Results of probabilistic modeling of the sea gas and oil-producing systems from their vulnerability point of view (including various scenarios of possible terrorist influences) are analyzed and interpreted.
Part of the book: Probabilistic Modeling in System Engineering
Probabilistic Predictive Modelling for Complex System Risk Assessments
The risks assessment is described by the action of estimating the probability distribution functions of possible successes or failures of a system during a given prediction period. Typical probabilistic predictive models and methods for solving risks prediction problems are described, and their classification is given. Priority development directions for risks prediction in standard system processes and their implementation procedures are proposed. The reported examples demonstrate the effects and interpretation of the predictive results obtained. Notes: 1. System is a combination of interacting elements organized to achieve one or more stated purposes (according to ISO/IEC/IEEE 15288 “Systems and software engineering—System life cycle processes”). 2. Risk is defined as the effect of uncertainty on objectives considering consequences. An effect is a deviation from the expected — positive and/or negative (according to ISO Guide 73).
Part of the book: Time Series Analysis