Gross harvest of the main cultivated crops in the Nordic countries of the Eurasian continent, tones .
In the northern regions of the Eurasian continent, an increase in the sum of active temperatures up to 1500–2000 °C degrees is observed, which creates more favorable conditions for growing crops. The study reveals the prerequisites for the development of crop production in the northern latitudes and analyzes the yield of crops according to the Doctrine of Food Security. Also considered the yields of the main crops in the northern countries of Europe. In the south of the European part of the Eurasian continent, a decrease in crop yields is expected due to climate change and severe aridity. At the same time, this process will have a more negligible effect in the central regions. Improving the thermal regime in the North of the Far East will also increase the yield of fruit and berry, and vegetable crops. In the northern part of the circumpolar belt, an improvement in the thermal regime with a relatively insignificant change in climate humidity will create conditions for increasing crops’ productivity and growing a more comprehensive range of crops, especially in river valleys.
- Nordic farming
- global warming
- climate-smart breeding
- food security
- Eurasian continent
- Northern latitudes
The history of agriculture is inextricably linked to the account of humanity. Different theories of the origin of farming, although divergent in their views, are united in the fact that “the cultural force of alienation”  significantly influenced the development of humanity. And the whole domestication of plants went along the way of concentrating on their various organs, which are consumed for human consumption. The story of agriculture is directly related to the cultivation of plants, landscape, and climatic conditions. Concerning technological innovations in plant cultivation, these technologies appeared and improved in cases where humanity, for various reasons, had to grow plants in unfavorable conditions. Less fertile soils, less light, heat, and other vital factors forced people to improve agricultural practices. Some researchers  and  rightly note that all four ancient civilizations of the Old World were located in the temperate zone of the Northern Hemisphere in a narrow strip along the thirtieth parallel. The alluvial deposits of the flooding Tigris, Euphrates, Nile, Indus and Yellow River allowed highly developed civilizations entirely dependent on river irrigation.
According to one of the hypotheses of the development of agriculture, the increase in population was its consequence, thanks to which man colonized new lands, settling in different corners of the planet, involving in its use an increasing amount of land resources.
The next round of the industrial revolution led to the widespread use of fossil fuels, in all areas of human activity, including, for the most part, the agro-industrial complex. The result has been a disruption of the natural cycle and balance of greenhouse gases on the planet, resulting in a gradual increase in the average annual temperature of the earth (Figure 1). On a planetary scale, this will lead to irreversible consequences, and already all countries of the world are concerned about global warming.
In addition to changes in temperature, humans are applying various mineral fertilizers and crop protection products in large quantities to maintain crop yields. Unfortunately, this also has negative consequences, but for soil fertility in traditional crop-growing regions. Figures 2 and 3 show the dynamics of demand for mineral fertilizers in the world.
Soil degradation results from the pursuit of profit and squeezing all the nutrients out of the earth in all traditionally agricultural regions. And actively stimulating the soil with nutrients using fertilizer application only worsens the situation because the concentration of fertilizers is so high that the ground is deprived of its top quality - fertility - for many years.
These two reasons make it necessary to look for new land to cultivate and organize agricultural production. The way out of this situation, scientists see in the transfer of agricultural land to the North. For example, researchers at Singapore’s Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Goh Tian and Jonathan Lassa, point out that the greenhouse effect will make Northern Canada, Russia and the USA, southern Argentina mountainous tropics suitable for farming. “However, favourable conditions for some countries do not guarantee an increase in yields. The winners of climate change will be the countries that can take advantage of the opportunities presented by climate change. Above all, warming will create new regional agricultural centres to replace the old ones and reshape the market for producers - not only between exporters and importers but also between small and large companies” [https://penzanews.ru/analysis/92531-2015].
2. Materials and methods
Climate change has direct implications for the stability of food production systems. The increased frequency and intensity of extreme events, such as droughts and floods, will pose severe threats to the strength of both domestic and global food markets. In addition, the frequency and magnitude of food-deficit emergencies may increase as a result of the complex interaction between political conflict and migration, with increased competition for scarce resources.
One consequence of climate change is the growing scarcity of water resources. Water plays a crucial role in food production, both regionally and globally.
On the one hand, more than 80% of all agricultural land in the world is not irrigated; crop productivity depends on sufficient available moisture in these areas. On the other hand, in areas where this value is limited by climatic conditions, such as the arid and semi-arid regions of the tropics and subtropics and the Mediterranean-type regions in Europe, Australia and South America, agricultural production is very vulnerable to climate change.
On the other hand, global food production depends not only on moisture in precipitation but also on water resources for irrigation. With a warmer climate, the pressure on irrigation systems will increase, which will require additional resources and costs.
Under conditions of global climate change, the risk of competition for water resources increases, especially in regions with inter-boundary rivers and reservoirs, such as Central Asia .
In general terms, the adverse effects of global warming on agriculture can be as follows:
loss of agricultural land fertility through erosion, compaction, desertification, salinization, waterlogging, soil contamination, insufficient mineral content in the soil;
restructuring of soil biota, reduction of overall land productivity;
a drop in the yield of cultivated crops due to exposure to high temperatures and dehydration;
the complete death of plants during wintering;
deterioration of livestock conditions, thermal stress on animals, leading to reduced productivity;
lack of water supply, especially in arid areas;
increased floods and inundations in water-abundant regions;
the unprecedented spread of traditional crop pests and microorganisms, including in areas where they have not previously been found, the emergence of alien pest species .
Rising temperatures are not always uniformly bad; they can lead to increased crop productivity, particularly in the plateaus and high-altitude tropical areas or in northern latitudes where low temperatures limit crop growth.
3. Research results
The research subject is the northern part of the Eurasian continent, which starts from the coast of Norway in the western region and ends with the Kamchatka Peninsula in the eastern part.
The area is limited by the 70th parallel to the North, as further North is the far North where no crops can be grown despite warming. To the south, the 60th parallel.
|1||Anise, badian, fennel, coriander||—||—||—||—||—||—||—||—||—||48488||10146||37578||—||—||—|
|5||Bast fibers, other||—||—||—||—||—||—||—||—||—||50076||50061||50073||—||—||—|
|9||Broad beans, horse beans, dry||24160||30170||—||—||—||—||—||—||7419||7600||8044||109400||34400||59500|
|11||Cabbages and other brassicas||26213||23300||25400||290||160||276||37911||31613||32364||2687090||2495839||2623230||18290||19470||20470|
|12||Carrots and turnips||63823||66720||77340||750||520||900||51889||43290||49282||1438420||1408348||1558866||109080||92540||106730|
|13||Castor oil seed||—||—||—||—||—||—||—||—||—||117||81||319||—||—||—|
|15||Cauliflowers and broccoli||4288||3290||4050||55||47||77||11525||12157||11707||18744||23530||23237||10300||9330||8230|
|20||Cucumbers and gherkins||50763||55330||56130||1800||1927||1924||16484||17462||18475||1504965||1604346||1626360||38100||35790||37900|
|22||Flax fiber and tow||—||—||—||—||—||—||—||—||—||38795||36715||38464||—||—||—|
|23||Fruit, fresh nes||—||—||—||—||—||—||—||—||—||700||900||1000||—||—||—|
|28||Hemp tow waste||—||—||—||—||—||—||—||—||—||1240||1212||1187||—||—||—|
|31||Leeks, other alliaceous vegetables||628||520||730||—||—||—||2717||3335||2702||—||—||—||4170||3180||3510|
|33||Lettuce and chicory||14099||14350||13620||—||—||—||28541||27511||26576||—||—||—||30760||28410||32140|
|38||Mushrooms and truffles||1320||1320||1330||580||580||560||—||—||—||16088||30686||47951||—||1200||1540|
|45||Peaches and nectarines||—||—||—||—||—||—||—||—||—||29300||36500||38300||—||—||—|
|49||Plums and sloes||—||—||—||—||—||—||1859||1948||2546||133200||165800||174000||250||250||250|
|52||Pumpkins, squash and gourds||1686||2350||2300||—||—||—||—||—||—||1165150||1191538||1195611||—||3980||4760|
|57||Rice, paddy (milled rice equivalent)||—||—||—||—||—||—||—||—||—||658076||692494||732806||—||—||—|
|70||Vegetables, fresh nes||12431||—||—||—||—||—||6887||9445||7629||2006655||2128047||2104172||40100||1180||1330|
|71||Vegetables, leguminous nes||—||—||—||—||—||—||—||—||—||375||342||332||—||—||—|
An important observation of the study is that only livestock production is practised in northern latitudes in all countries other than the Russian Federation. Crop production in northern latitudes is either undeveloped or underdeveloped in these countries. Therefore, further research will focus on the areas of the North of the Russian Federation.
In the context of increasing climate change, Russia, as a country with not only a vast territory but also a variety of different climatic zones, can have a significant impact on global food security, although it, like other regions of the world, will not escape the harmful effects of global warming.
According to many experts, climate change in Russia is already occurring and is often unfavorable for agriculture, the economy and the social sphere.
In studies of climate change across the country, all models without exception show substantial warming of the climate in Russia in the 21st century. Moreover, temperature changes are significantly more significant than the standard deviations throughout the area in question, even during the cold season when intrinsic temperature variability is exceptionally high.
In the scientific literature, various researchers show impressive results in studying the economic impact of climate change on agriculture, especially on the productivity of staple crops (cereals, forage).
Scientists estimated Yield Changes by the IPCC A1F1 Global Development Scenario, which assumes high economic growth with intensive use of fossil fuels. The data obtained were presented by the All-Russian Research Institute of Agricultural Meteorology - RRIAM.
For grain crops in Russia, yields are forecast to fall by up to 17% by 2050. In the Volga and Ural Federal Districts, the decline in grain yields will be catastrophic - by 30% and 38%, respectively. Likewise, the reduction in forage yields will be significant in the Southern and Volga Federal Districts, down 17% and 12%, respectively .
Similar conclusions are drawn by international research. In particular, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) obtained estimates of yield changes of wheat and some other crops in Russia by 2050, based on which the experts came to several conclusions about the state of agricultural land in the future until 2050
in the southernmost regions of Russia, a large area may cease to be used for wheat cultivation altogether;
vast areas of the southwest will face a reduction in yields of more than 25%;
yield reductions of less than 25% are expected in various areas of southern European Russia, the Southen Urals, Eastern and Western Siberia;
an increase in climate-dependent wheat yields in the range of 5–25% may be observed in the regions bordering Kazakhstan and in the south of Western Siberia;
the involvement of new land in agricultural turnover for wheat production is insignificant.
Fluctuations in the production and supply of grain in the grain market caused by climate change strongly affect grain prices.
The food security of the Russian Federation [5, 7] in the long term largely depends not only on the readiness of agricultural systems to adapt to extreme climatic and weather events but also on the ability to adapt to these changes in the rest of the agro-industrial complex - logistics, agricultural processing and food consumption, as well as the social-economic sphere of the regions and the country as a whole.
In conclusion, the global community recognizes that climate change will make it challenging to produce enough food for the world’s growing population and alter water resources’ availability, quality, and mode of use. Avoiding over-intrusions into already stressed ecosystems will require countries to double the current rate of agricultural productivity growth while minimizing agricultural-related harm to the environment. This productivity will require the deliberate application of new or pre-existing technologies and practices, the development of crop varieties resistant to climatic shocks, the diversification of rural livelihoods, improved forest and fisheries management, investment in information technology and systems, and the active use of emerging computer technologies such as precision farming, GIS, etc.
International organizations including FAO , the International Food Policy Research Institute - IFPRI, the World Bank and others have developed recommendations for adapting world agriculture to global climate change.
Addressing this major challenge requires joint efforts and actions by all countries to effectively implement measures to mitigate climate change effects on agriculture and adapt the world food system.
The level of food security of the Northern regions of Russia depends on the local production of agricultural products and their regular import from favorable areas. And, in this regard, we have considered food security based on the gross harvest of the above indicators in the regions of the North .
The table shows that it is practically impossible to grow wheat (winter and spring) in the northern latitudes. Winter wheat is produced only in two subjects of the Federation out of 12 regions that we selected for the study (Table 2). According to the data, during the reporting period, winter wheat cultivation in the Tyumen region decreased by 38.04 thousand centners (or 24.9%), while in spring wheat, it decreased by 1037.2 thousand centners (or 11.6%). On the contrary, there has been a 15.6% increase in wheat yields in Russia’s North.
The status of the Doctrine  indicator “potatoes” is more favorable than that of wheat. Potatoes are grown in 11 out of 12 regions. In the Krasnoyarsk region as a whole, potato self-sufficiency (6.182.97 thousand quintals) is high per capita (0.6 kilograms per day), i.e., exceeds 2.5 times the dietary standards. Still, in 2 autonomous Districts (Taimyr (Dolgano-Nenetskiy) and Evenk), potatoes are not grown due to difficult climate conditions and specific arctic . Potatoes in these districts are not a staple food, unlike in Russia as a whole. In the other constituent entities of the Federation, potatoes are grown, albeit in small quantities. For example, in 3 regions (Yamalo-Nenetskiy Autonomous District, Magadan region, Chukotskiy Autonomous District), self-sufficiency in “potatoes” is low and equals less than 0.1% of the total in Russia. The Tyumen region (without districts), just as in wheat, shows a decrease in the gross output of potatoes by 1,031.79 thousand quintals. There is also an insignificant reduction in the gross harvest in 3 regions - the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), the Magadan region and Chukotskiy Autonomous District. Three federal subjects (Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Area, Yamalo-Nenetskiy Autonomous Area, Kamchatka region) show increased potato cultivation. Still, only one part, Yugra, shows a significant growth rate of 140.84 thousand quintals.
During the study period, potato yields increased from 24.5% in the Murmansk region to 104.1% in the Komi Republic. Therefore, self-sufficiency in the potato indicator in these regions is high.
The third Doctrine  indicator is “vegetables and gourds”. These crops are more thermophilic than potatoes and are practically not intended for growing in the permafrost zone. Therefore, their cultivation rate is meager in this macro-region. The histogram (Figure 1) shows this clearly.
Despite the climatic conditions, the regions of Russia’s northern latitudes are looking for opportunities to grow vegetables and gourds food crops. But the yield of the crops grown is low enough for the body to obtain all the vitamins it needs.
Melon crops are not grown in all regions of the northern latitudes due to the incompatibility of these crops’ physiological and morphological characteristics and the difficult climatic conditions of the North. Thus, in 2020, according to federal statistics and the histogram, only three areas found it possible to supply themselves with minimal amounts of melon food crops, such as the Krasnoyarsk region (the entire region), the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) and the Tyumen region (without districts) with a gross harvest of 3.56 thousand quintals, 3.04 thousand quintals and 0.17 thousand quintals respectively.
As for outdoor and indoor vegetables, small volumes of gross harvest are present in the regions of Northern Russia. But the values are so low that the histogram (Figure 2) does not show them. As a result, only two areas give a small visualization (Krasnoyarsk region at 1.543.02 thousand quintals and Tyumen region at 1.267.82 thousand quintals in 2020) (Figure 5).
The average harvest of outdoor and indoor vegetables in 2020 is recorded in three regions. For example, the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) shows 263.63 thousand quintals, the Kamchatka region - 135.77 thousand quintals, and Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous District - 267.64 thousand quintals.
And the lowest indicators for the cultivation of outdoor and indoor vegetables in 2020 are represented by three subjects of the Federation (Magadan region (44.05 thousand quintals), Chukotskiy region (2.7 thousand quintals) and Yamalo-Nenetskiy Autonomous District (1.36 thousand quintals).
The regions of the European North of Russia do not grow melons. But open field vegetables are grown in farms of all categories. The leader in growing vegetables among the European North of Russia regions is the Komi Republic in 2018 and 2020. The lowest yields are obtained in the Murmansk region due to the relatively small territory, climatic conditions and, of course, the specialization of the area itself. This region is an outpost of Russia in the North Seas.
Thus, we can conclude from this very Doctrine  indicator that man cannot change weather conditions in northern latitudes. Still, human engineering and technology of recent years show that it is possible to grow vegetable and food gourds even in extreme conditions. Besides, the facts recorded by meteorologists on global warming and climate change in northern latitudes over the past decades show that the sum of active temperatures (SAT) is observed more frequently than 35–50 years ago.
For example, in the Murmansk region over the last 35 years (Figure 3), there has been a significant upward trend in July temperatures from 15.2 °C in 1985 to 17.9 °C in 2020, which of course, shortly could affect the cultivation of even more vegetable and food crops to increase food security (Figure 6).
Scientists observe the same trend in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) over 35 years (Figure 4). In July, the temperature increased from 24.3 °C in 1985 to 25.5 °C in 2020, indicating an increase in the Russian North’s range (Figure 7).
The next Doctrine  indicator, “fruit and berries”, also depends on the sum of the active temperatures in the northern latitudes of the macro-region. Table 3 proves this. The availability of fruit and berry plantations, including strawberries, strawberries, raspberries, currants, gooseberries, and other berries, does exist. Still, the gross yield is insignificant to supply the population of this macro-region.
These tables indicate the possibility of developing crop production in the regions of the North of Russia. However, food availability by the Doctrine indicator “Fruits” is high only in two areas (Tyumen and Krasnoyarsk regions) relative to other regions of the North. And, even these values of 69.36 thousand quintals and 64.27 thousand quintals do not cover the needs of these regions in fruit. For example, according to Order No. 614 of 09.08.2016 of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, the norm for consumption of fruit and berries is 100 kg/year per capita. In the Krasnoyarsk region, fruit supplies are similar to those in the Tyumen Region. The per capita fruit deficit is 77.51 kg/per year per capita, without considering the increased consumption of fruits and vegetables for residents of the Far North by 15%. In other words, the current state of the gross fruit harvest is insufficient for the self-sufficiency of the population of this region, let alone other territories of the Russian North.
As for fruit supply in Krasnoyarsk Region, the situation is similar to that in Tyumen Region. The per capita fruit deficit is 77.51 kg per year, and this does not include the 15% increased norms of fruit and vegetable consumption for residents of the Far North (Table 4).
For the Doctrine  indicator “berries”, the situation, according to the table, is more optimistic, as there is no deficit in this position. Still, there is an oversupply of these crops per capita per year. For example, Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous District - Yugra shows 42 kg/year per capita against the consumption norm of 7 kg/year per capita (not including the increase of consumption norm by 15% inhabitants of the Far North). Three other regions exceed the consumption norms: Tyumen region (without districts), Krasnoyarsk region (the entire region) and Kamchatka region.
We found that the gross berry harvest in four regions of the North of Russia (Yamalo-Nenetskiy Autonomous District, the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Magadan region, Chukotskiy Autonomous District) is lower than the average Russian consumption rate.
The growth rate for 2017–2020 in the regions of the European North for fruit and berry plantations and berries shows a steady increase in yield as these regions have significant stocks of non-timber products, which are in demand both domestically and internationally. Therefore, this area of crop production needs to be developed and maintained. Furthermore, because of the change in air temperature by 2.7 °C in these regions, it can be said that the growing season increases in days and, accordingly, some crops can adapt to the weather and climatic conditions of the North.
There is considerable uncertainty in quantifying how climate change is expected to play out in the future and its impact on ecosystems, economic activity, and social processes in different countries and regions.
Studies on the impact of climate change on the economies of world regions and individual countries (including agriculture) have been carried out by various international organizations and national research centres. For example, the World Bank’s Economics of adaptation to climate change synthesis report (2010) estimates that the costs of adapting to 2-degree global warming between 2020 and 2050 are in the range of $70 billion to $100 billion a year, depending on future climate change scenarios.
The same report notes that in addition to the financial costs of adapting the world’s regions to climate change, the prices of mitigating the negative impacts on developing economies will rise, totaling US$265 billion to US$565 billion . As a result, the cost of mitigating the effects of climate change would increase to a total of US$265 billion to US$565 billion .
It should be noted that even under constant climate conditions, as shown in the model studies, prices for the most critical crops will rise. By 2050, it is predicted that the cost of wheat could increase by 39%, rice by 62%, maize by 63% and soybean by 72%. Climate change will result in additional price increases: an average increase of 32–37% for rice, 52–55% for maize and 12–14% for soybeans, with the highest growth expected for wheat, ranging from 94 to 111% .
Adapting the food system to global climate change will require complex social, economic and biophysical adjustments to food production, processing and consumption. Such changes will be most difficult for the poorest and most vulnerable regions and populations. Furthermore, climate change modeling shows that the most severe impacts are likely to occur in the tropical drylands. Many of the poorest countries are located in these regions, so nations least able to adapt will be most affected.
Nevertheless, the food system is embedded in global processes and linked to other systems, which has both advantages and disadvantages. For example, economic shocks in one geographic region may spread rapidly to others. Still, shocks due to sharp reductions in the food supply in one area may be offset by output from the other areas. The global food system also affects the efficiency of food production by allowing parts with advanced production systems to export to lagging regions .
A global problem of the scale of climate change requires coordinated efforts at the international level. However, its solution depends on the actions taken by each country in its territory. Primarily, it is a question of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions into the atmosphere.
Based on the research, there is a strong dependency on crop production in the Northern regions of Russia, and the level of “food security” is relatively low. A significant reason for this, of course, is the climate. But even so, this factor is beginning to “melt away” over time in favor of growing more thermophilic crops. Thus, opening even more opportunities for the state and population to develop rural areas and agriculture in this macro-region.
We suggest using the maximum possible agro-technologies for crop production under global warming conditions, such as snow retention, reduction of unproductive evaporation, and expansion of drought-tolerant crops (primarily corn, sunflower, millet), and growth of winter crops (wheat).
We also suggest a need to develop climate-friendly crop breeding, which will cope with abiotic stress conditions as much as possible and adapt to climate change.
Today, the primary vector in solving the food problem and the development of rural areas is the development of productive forces of agriculture with a bias towards innovative and nature-based technologies , in providing the population with domestic functional foods, except for exotic foods and the formation of the necessary social infrastructure for the people of the Russian North.
As for the 2030 Doctrine, the overall food self-sufficiency indicators in Russia are more than ambitious, given the background of the food problem. And these difficulties and barriers can be seen in the North of Russia and everywhere, especially in the North Federal District and the Far East of Russia.
However, crop production can and should be developed despite the archaic climatic conditions, especially in the river valleys. This study shows that the “sprouts” of crop production already exist in the regions of the North of Russia. It is necessary to build a growing season for crops in northern latitudes, using agronomic techniques, plant breeding, and genetic methods to gain access to safe, functional food for a healthy lifestyle throughout the season . And, of course, public-administrative and private-investment levers and support are indispensable.