Sustainable Development Global Simulation: Analysis of Quality and Security of Human Life

This research is based on the concept of “sustainable development” being the further development of studies of V. Vernadskij about noosphere (Vernadskij, 1944). It has been theoretically and practically proved that on the edge of the centuries studies about the noosphere appeared to be a necessary platform for the development of three-dimension concept of ecological, social and economic sustainable development (Summit Planet Earth, 1992) and (Johannesburg Summit, 2002).


Introduction
This research is based on the concept of "sustainable development" being the further development of studies of V. Vernadskij about noosphere (Vernadskij, 1944). It has been theoretically and practically proved that on the edge of the centuries studies about the noosphere appeared to be a necessary platform for the development of three-dimension concept of ecological, social and economic sustainable development (Summit Planet Earth, 1992) and (Johannesburg Summit, 2002).
Economic approach is based on the optimal usage of limited resources and application of natural-, power-and material saving technologies for creation of the gross income flow which would at least provide the preservation (not reduction) of the gross capital (physical, natural or human), with the use of which the gross income is created.
From the ecological point of view the sustainable development is aimed at provision of the integrity of both biological and physical natural systems as well as their viability that influences the global stability of the whole biosphere. The ability of such systems to renovate and adapt to the various changes instead of maintenance of the biological variety in the certain static state, its degradation and loss is becoming extremely important.
Social constituent is aimed at human development, the preservation of stability of social and cultural systems, as well as the decrease in the number of conflicts in the society. A human being shall become not the object but the subject of the development participating in the processes of his/her vital activity formation, decision-making and implementation of the decisions, in the control over their implementation. To meet such requirements it is important to fairly distribute the wealth between the people, to observe pluralism of thoughts and tolerate human relationships, to preserve cultural capital and its variety, including first of all, the heritage of non-dominant cultures.
Systemic coordination and balance of these three components is an extremely difficult task. In particular, the interconnection of social and ecological constituents causes the necessity to preserve equal rights of present and future generations to use natural resources. The interaction of social and economic constituents requires the achievement of equal and fair distribution of material wealth between people and help provision to the poor. And finally, the correlation of environmental and economic components requires the cost estimation of anthropogenic influences on environment. The solution of these tasks is the main challenge of the present time for the national governments, influential international organizations and all progressive people of the world.
In this research a Sustainable Development Gauging Matrix (SDGM) (Zgurovsky, 2007) within three abovementioned components is proposed and these processes are globally modeled in terms of quality and security of the human life. With the help of this Matrix the sustainable development processes have been globally modeled for a large group of world countries in terms of quality and security of the human life.

The methodology of sustainable development evaluation in terms of quality and security of the human life 2.1 Sustainable development as the quaternary functional of quality and security of the human life
The important issue in the process of implementation of the concept of sustainable development is the formation of the measurement system (Matrix) for the quantitative and qualitative assessment of this extremely complicated procedure.
The process of sustainable development will be characterized according to two main components: security (C sl ) and quality (C ql ) of the human life as it is shown in fig.1.   . (2) In this case the indicators and policy categories included are calculated as a weighted total: where I i is a value of an indicator or a category of policy for i th country (the number of the countries is m), w j is weight of the j th component of I index (the number of the components is n), x i, j is a value of the j th component for i th country.
Such representation of integrated indices (indicators and categories of policy) envisages that components of x i,j in the formula (3) must be non-dimensional and vary within the same range.
Considering the fact that all data, indicators and indices included into the model are measured by virtue of different physical values, may be interpreted differently and change within the different ranges, they were aggregated to the standard form in such a way that all their variations would occur within the range from 0 to 1. The following formula was used: where x i,j and l i,j are respectively the initial and standard j th value for i th region, j x is the average value of x j at sampling and σ(x j ) is the corresponding standard deviation. To calculate a mean value and a standard deviation value the following formulae are used: Such data setting provides that values of indicators being the worst from the point of view of sustainable development correspond to numerical values near to 0, and the best values approach 1.
This normalization gives the possibility to calculate each of I ec ,I e ,I s indices and with the help of them the components with appropriate weighting coefficients. Then the quantitative value of human life quality can be identified as projection of the norm of this vector to an ideal vector with coordinates (1; 1; 1), (Fig.2 Thus, the projection of the norm of the vector's radius ql C  to the ideal vector (1,1,1) characterizes the human life quality and the attitude position of the vector ql C  in the coordinate system (I ec , I e , I s ) characterizes the "harmonization" level of sustainable development. We should mention that when the angle α approaches 0, the harmonization level of sustainable development increases, i.e. the equidistance of the vector ql C  from each of coordinates (I ec , I e , I s ) will correspond to the highest harmonization value of sustainable development. If this vector approaches one of these coordinates, this will indicate the priority direction of the corresponding dimension development and neglect of two others. Let the value G=1-α be the harmonization level of sustainable development. It will increase when G approaches 1 and decrease when G approaches 0.
As the researches of human life quality and security are conducted with the help of different methods and sets of initial data, it is worth performing them separately in three stages. At the first stage we will analyze the human life quality as one of the components of sustainable development. At the second stage we will investigate the human life security as another component of sustainable development. And at the third stage we will calculate the aggregate value of the Sustainable Development Index using two components and investigate this index.
In order to conduct the research of the life quality component of sustainable development, it is necessary to sample the data with the help of which each of three dimensions of sustainable development will be characterized in the most appropriate way. These data shall conform to the following important requirements: they have to be formed annually on continuing basis by respected and recognized international organizations.
Thus, the life quality component of sustainable development С ql and the harmonization level of sustainable development G=1-α are calculated on the basis of their constituents I ec , I e ,I s . Considering the requirements to initial data mentioned above the value of every dimension I ec , I e , I s will be calculated according to five global indices widely used in the international practice (Tab.1), being annually formed by the recognized international organizations. Let us consider all of them. To calculate this index the aggregation method is used according to which EPI 2010 index is formed of two categories of top-level environmental policy (Environmental health, being the sanitary state of environment, and Ecosystem vitality, which is the vital ability of the ecosystem), ten medium-level ecological indicators and 25 low-level indicators.
The presented index and its indicators identify the ability of every country to protect its environment both during a current period of time and also in long-term perspective, on the basis of availability of national environmental system, the ability to resist to environmental impacts and decrease in human dependence on environmental impacts, social and institutional resources of a country to meet the environmental challenges, possibility of global control over the environmental state of the country etc. Moreover, they can be used as a powerful tool for making decisions on the analytical basis including social and economic dimensions of sustainable development of the country.
The Social Dimension index(I s ) will be formed of two global indices: These policy categories are formed of four indicators that characterize peculiar features of the education system of a country, nation poverty factors, level of unemployment, human healthcare activities, gender conditions in the country and other constituents of human development. As it is shown in Table 1 and 2, life quality component of sustainable development C ql and its harmonization degree G = 1  α in the year 2010 were determined with the usage of twenty two categories of policy and 73 indicators.
On the basis of description of relations between different categories of policy and indicators reduced to common calculating platform, the mathematical SDGM model was developed, the structure of which is presented in Figure 3.
It was taken into account that all data, indicators and indexes included into model ( Figure 3) are measured with the help of different physical quantities, may be interpreted differently Fig. 3. The mathematical SDGM model for determination of life quality component of sustainable development and its harmonization degree and change within different ranges. That is why they were normalized for their changes to occur within range from 0 to 1. In this case the worst values of mentioned indicators conform to numeral values close to 1. Such normalization gives the opportunity to calculate every index I ec , I e , I s and component C ql through their components with appropriate weight coefficients. In their turn the weight coefficients in the formula of calculation of life quality component of sustainable development C ql are selected in order to give the possibility to provide equal values of economic, ecological and social dimension in the coordinate system (I ec , I e , I s ).
Therefore, the SDGM model gives the possibility to calculate life quality component of sustainable development C ql and harmonization degree of this development G = 1  α for every country of the world for which data about global indexes and indicators exist ( Table 2).

Methodology of sustainable development assessment in terms of the human life security
Let us consider the global threats to the sustainable development to be those determined in the beginning of the XXI century by such recognized international organizations as UNO, World Health Organization (WHO), international organizations "World Economic Forum, Transparency International", "Global Footprint Network", "International Energy Agency", "World Resources Institute", company "British Petroleum" and others. The analysis of every threat will give the possibility to determine the vulnerability level of different countries of the world to the influence of these aggregated threats. Let us analyze each of the global threats separately.

Threat 1. Global decrease in energy security (ES)
For the first part of the XXI century one of the main critical challenges to the mankind is the rapid decrease in organic fuel resources that are extracted from entrails of the earth, and the increase in consumption of such resources, first of all, by India and China. In the beginning of the 20-ies of the current century, the curves of energy consumption and production of energy from oil will be crossed (AlenkaBurja, n.d.). In other words, the "productionconsumption" balance of energy, produced from oil, will change its value from positive to negative ( Figure 4). The similar phenomena will occur for "production-consumption" balances of energy, made from gas in the beginning of 30-ies and for the energy generated from uranium-235 in the beginning of 50-ies, accordingly ( Figure 4).
Thus, until the mankind invents the energy resources that could fully replace the organic types of fuel and nuclear energy, the energy security of a country in particular and the world in general, will decrease. In order to quantitatively estimate the energy security of different countries of the world let us introduce the energy security index (Energy Security Index, ES) that will be calculated by the formula www.intechopen.com . Change in "production-consumption" balance from positive into negative for energy production from oil, gas and uranium-235, accordingly

Threat 2. The imbalance between biological abilities of the Earth and human needs in biosphere in terms of the change in the world demographic structure (BB)
In February 2011 the population of the planet has exceeded 7 million people living on the total area 510 072 000 km2. Daily growth of population is 211 467 people (GeoHive, n.d.). According to the method of arithmetic extrapolation the Earth population will have been 9,75 billion people by the year 2050. That is why the first threat appears being related to the fact that the Earth will be inhabited by the number of people that will exceed its abilities to sustain on the basis of the present natural resources. The Pentagon experts consider that the real problems for the mankind will have occurred by the year 2020, and will be connected with the catastrophic shortage of water, energy, foodstuff that can cause new conflicts on the Earth (Membrane, n.d.).
calculation of ecologically disturbed area (Ecological Footprint) (Global Footprint Network, n.d.) gives the possibility to establish some limit according to which the ecological requirements to the world economics are within or exceed the biosphere abilities to supply the people with goods and services. This limit helps people, organizations and government to create strategies, establish the goals and provide the process according to the requirements of the sustainable development.
Ecologically disturbed territory (Ecological Footprint) determines which its part is necessary to preserve present population according to the present level of consumption, level of technological development and usage efficiency of natural wealth. The unit of measurement of this dimension is average (global on the whole Earth) hectare. The most substantial component of the Ecological Footprint is the territory of the Earth used for foodstuff production, forest area, biofuel amount, ocean (seas) territory, used for fishing and the most important element is the Earth area, necessary to support the life of plants absorbing the emissions of CO2 as a result of organic fuel burning.
Ecological Footprint envisages that in world economy the people use resources and ecological services from all over the world. Thus, the indicator for a country may exceed its actual biological possibilities. On the basis of it, the essence of Ecological Footprint for a country is the extent of its consumption and global impact on environment.
The same methodology can be used for calculation (in the same values) of biological abilities of the Earth, biological productivity of its territory. In 2011 biological abilities of the Earth were approximately 11.2 billion or 1.8 global hectares per capita (non-human species were not considered). Now the human need in biosphere, i.e. its global Ecological Footprint is 18.1 billion global hectares or 2.7 global hectares per capita. That is why, today global Ecological Footprint exceeds biological abilities of the Earth by 0.9 global hectares per capita or by 50%. This means that vital resources of the planet disappear faster than the nature can renew.
This threat has substantial correlation degree with demographic structure change of the planet population. For example, according to UNO (Human Development Report 2007/2008 the biggest growth of population over a period of the following 50 years is expected in the poorest regions of the world: in Africa it will increase in 2 times, In Latin America and Caribbean basin will increase in 1.5 time, at the same time in Europe it will decrease in 0, 8 times. Essential threat is also uncontrolled increase in the urban population in underdeveloped countries. By the year 2050 it will have been doubled approximating to 10 billion people. It will lead to intensification of transport, ecological and social problems, an increase in criminality and other consequencess of chaotic urbanization. The important tendency of the nearest decades is rapid change in the structure of religious groups of the Earth population. So, from 1980 to 2005 the number of Muslins will increase from 16,5% to 30%, the number of Christians will decrease from 13.3% to 3%, the number of Hindus will decrease from 13.3% to 10%, the number of Buddhists will decrease from 6.3% to 5%. The number of representatives of other religious groups will also decrease from 31.1% to 25% (Science Council of Japan, 2005). These changes will cause the necessity of searching new methods of tolerance coexistence of people on the Earth.
For estimation of increasing threats, connected with imbalance between biological capability of the Earth and human requirements in biosphere, in terms of demographic structure www.intechopen.com change of the world we will use the indicator which is ecological reserve ("+") or deficit ("-") in global hectares per capita for a country (Global Footprint Network, n.d.).

Threat 3.Growing inequality between people and countries on the Earth (GINI)
According to the World Bank data, in the year 1973 the difference in incomes between the richest and poorest countries were determined by ratio 44:1, and today it is 72:1. The assets of three world's richest people exceed the wealth of 47 countries of the world. Assets of the whole mankind are controlled by 475 richest people. Assets of 50 richest people of Ukraine which amount to 64,4 billion dollars in 2007 exceeded two national budgets of the country, in particular (Donbass Internet Paper. News.dn.ua, n.d.). The correlation between one fifth of the richest and one fifth of the poorest parts of the Earth population has reached 1:75. Wealth of civilization still remains unachievable for the poorest group. Its representatives spend less than two dollars a day; 700 million of them live in Asia, 400 million live in Africa and 150 in Latin America. The gap between the richest and the poorest groups of people of the Earth has risen approximately tenfold according to their living standards in the course of the last 20 years. The threat is considered to be dangerous due to the growing number of the world conflicts, growth of corruption, terrorism and crime, ecology deterioration, a decrease in the level of education and health service support.
In order to estimate the distribution inequality of economical and social boons for each country the SP-index (CIA, n.d.) which identifies these characteristics will be used.

Threat 4.The spread of global diseases (GD)
The World Health Organization considers such diseases as cancer, cardio ischemia, cerebrovascular disease (paralysis), chest troubles, diarrhea, AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, diabetes to be the most dangerous for mankind as they may not only have bad consequences but also globally spread all over the world. During the next 20 years the sufficient increase in mortality caused by all non-infectious global diseases and decrease in mortality caused by AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria are expected. Such diseases as cardio ischemia, cerebrovascular disease, lung cancer and diabetes will become main global diseases during this period. At the same time the rate of total mortality from tobacco consumption will increase from 5.8 million people in the year 2009 to 6.4 million in the year 2015 and 8.3 million in 2030. Thus, tobacco is expected to kill by 50% people more than AIDS. Total human mortality on the Earth will be by 10% predetermined by the tobacco consumption.
But for estimation of the level of protection of the countries against quickly-spreading diseases it is reasonable to use the data on infectious diseases. In the further modeling the data on total mortality of the population of the world countries (million per year) caused by the totality of infectious diseases such as diarrhea (the most common mortality factor in underdeveloped countries), AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria and others will be used (Mathers, 2006).

Threat 5. Child mortality (CM)
The child mortality rate or under-5 mortality rate is the number of children who die by the age of five, per thousand live births per year. According to the data of United Nations Children's Fund 11 million children aged less than 5 die every year. Poverty which leads to bad health of mothers, insufficient nutrition and unsatisfactory sanitary is the reason of child mortality. Such factors as infectious diseases, poor health care and conflicts also increase child mortality. Africa, for example, has high rates of child mortality which are connected with AIDS epidemic, poor sanitary conditions and bad nutrition. The increase in child mortality in Iraq and Afghanistan is mostly caused by the conflicts.
According to UNICEF, most child deaths (and 70% in developing countries) result from one the following five causes or a combination thereof: acute respiratory infections, diarrhea, measles, malaria, malnutrition.
There is a significant difference in the indices of child mortality for different countries. In western industrially developed countries from 4 to 7 out of 1000 children die under the age of 5 years. The average rate of child mortality in developing countries is 158. In Sierra Leone, for example, every fourth child dies at infant age. Every tenth child doesn't live to 5 years in Iraq.
The rate of child mortality in the countries of the former Soviet Union in 10-12 times exceeds the rate of child mortality in the countries of Western Europe. It is particularly high in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.
Leaders of the countries took the responsibilities to decrease the rate of death of children aged under 5 years by two thirds by the year 2015. The United Nations Children's Fund now warns that 98 countries of the world will not be able to succeed in the specified task.
One of the UN Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) is to reduce child mortality, and the target is to "Reduce by two thirds, between 1990 and 2015, the under-five mortality rate". According to the UN MDG Report 2010 child deaths are falling, but not quickly enough to reach the target. Revitalizing efforts against pneumonia and diarrhoea, while bolstering nutrition, could save millions of children. Recent success in controlling measles may be short-lived if funding gaps are not bridged.

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Such tendencies signify another global threat due to marginalization of social and economic processes, a decrease in ecological and sanitary standards, impoverishment of people in the majority of countries of the world. In the further modeling, the data on the child mortality rate or under-5 mortality rate will be used. This data is collected by World Health Organization (WHO) and published in WHO Annual Reports and Statistical Information System. That data is also accessible at World Data Center for Geoinformatics and Sustainable Development (WDC-Ukraine).

Threat 6. The growth of corruption (CP)
Corruption is the biggest obstacle to the economic and social development of society. It endangers every change. Corruption has become not only one of the main reasons of poverty but also a source which prevents its overcoming. Although corruption had existed for a long time it became more widely spread in the process of globalization at the end of the 20th at the beginning of 2the 1 th centuries.
Corruption in one country had negative impact on the development of other countries which means that countries with the high level of corruption are not limited to the Third World. The process of liberalization in the former socialist countries was accompanied by unprecedented position abuses in 90-ies. Thus, Financial Times proclaimed 1995 to be "the year of corruption". The following years were marked with the spread of this phenomenon almost throughout all countries of the world and corruption itself became of global and international character.
Wellbeing did not become the prerequisite of successful elimination of corruption. The analysis of long-term tendencies revealed by the international organization «Transparency International» showed that during last 12 years the level of corruption has decreased in such countries as Estonia, Columbia, Bulgaria. Nevertheless, the growth of corruption occurs in such developed countries as Canada and Ireland. Such factors of risks as opacity of state authorities, excessive influence of separate oligarchic groups, violation in financing of political parties, etc. exist both in poor and rich countries and unfortunately, tendencies in increase of corruption scale are the same.
Usually, the structure of corruption is different in different countries of the world. Figure 6 illustrates countries and segments of society with the highest level of corruption according to (Transparency International, n.d.). The more the population of the planet increases, especially in underdeveloped countries, the more struggle for the control of drinking-water recourses will exacerbate another global threat for mankind.
The limited access to the drinking-water will be estimated by the inversed magnitude to the indicator of the access to drinking water (Human Development Report 2007/2008.

Threat 8. Global warming (GW)
Global warming is the process of gradual increase in the average annual temperature of the Earth and World Ocean. According to conclusions of the International UNO Expert Group in Climate Control (UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme for Water Supply and Sanitation, n.d.) and National Academies of Sciences of the Group of Eight, from the end of 19 th century the average temperature of the Earth has risen by 1° and "the major part of warming observed during the last 50 years had been caused by human activities" preliminary by gas emissions which cause green-house effect (carbon dioxide, CO2) and methane (CH4).
Estimates obtained with the climate models and cited by the International UNO Expert Group in Climate Control show that the average temperature of the Earth can increase from www.intechopen.com one to several ° (in different regions of the world or in the Earth in average) in 1990-2080 years. The warming is expected to cause other climate changes such as an increase in the level of Word Ocean by 0,1-5 m. (probably, in 30-40 years), the appearance of new viruses and also the change of atmospheric condensation and their distribution. This may result in an increase in such natural disasters as floods, draughts, hurricanes etc; a decrease in harvests of agricultural crops, the emergence of new epidemic diseases and the extinction of many biological species. As a result of the control over decreasing natural resources the struggle not only between countries but also between separate groups of population can exacerbate. This process will cause new global conflicts. The influence of carbon dioxide emissions on the global warming is much higher than the corresponding influence of methane. That is why the danger of global warming will be estimated by the amount of carbon dioxide emissions О 2 in metric tons per capita.
Data about emissions is obtained by WDC-Ukraine from Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC). It can be obtained with data extraction tool (http://wdc.org.ua/en/data). Original data is only the amount of Carbon (C) and calculation has been done to convert Carbon into Carbon Dioxide (CO2): values were multiplied by according coefficient (12+16*2)/12. Per capita emission data is based on calculations: CO2 emission / population for each country correspondingly.

Threat 9. The state fragility (SF)
After the end of Cold War and Soviet Union collapse (1991) the world has entered the era of new dramatic geopolitical processes. The following 18 years were marked with the blistering growth of globalization. Technical revolution in the field of informationcommunication technologies has made the world policy more transparent and led to an increase in changes influence which occurred in one region and affected the other parts of the planet. Due to these new qualities of the globalized world it became clear that new geopolitical system is full of unstable, unsuccessful and weak countries. The weakening of retaining mechanisms peculiar to bipolar world and conflict exacerbation between fundamental values of different countries caused a new wave of oppositions, terrorism, violence, territorial claims and irregular development.
Uncontrolled spread of nuclear, chemical and biological weapon, rebuilding of nuclear energetics in such unstable, unbalanced world significantly increases the threat to sustainable development and global security of mankind.
Under such conditions the stabilization of world development becomes possible due to the international cooperation, investments and support to the weak countries and planet regions by the progress of new paradigm of "tolerant, peaceful world". In order to accomplish such global, stabilizing policy the recognized international organizations and scientific centers began to develop analytical instruments for the estimation of new developing tendencies of the world since the beginning of this century. The first attempt to control the tendencies of the global development was a series of reports "The world and the conflict" which were published in the University of Maryland State (USA) in 2001. Reports devoted to the global tendencies of world development were also published in many countries such as Spain, Canada, and Germany etc.
The final aim of the development of new analytical instruments was the attempt to estimate the ability of different countries to act in such important dimensions as conflict, state administration, economic and social development. Among all these instruments "The index of ability of the peaceful society development" that belongs to the series of reports "The world and conflict", "Indicators of the world management" developed by the World Bank and "Index of unsuccessfulness of the countries" developed by The Fund of Peace can be mentioned.
For the quantitative estimation of the sustainable development threat in our research the State Fragility Index will be used (The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, n.d.). This index is calculated as average arithmetic value between political and economical instability of the country. Data concerning these values are given in the paper (Marshall, 2008). Experts of UNO and WDC-Ukraine determined 6 major natural disasters (in the order of danger decrease): draughts, floods, hurricanes, extreme temperatures, earthquakes and tsunami (UNDP, n.d.; Aivazian, 1983).

Threat 10. Natural Disasters (ND)
Index is calculated as follows:  As consequences of the natural disasters usually make a long-term influence on the country, gradually disappearing only with time, the final value of vulnerability index on the natural disasters will be defined as Exponential Weighted Moving Average, EWMA, which has the potential smoothing factor 0,25  The values of vulnerability index for the countries to the natural disasters during 1995-2010 were calculated according to the given methodology.

Determination of the aggregate impact of the total global threats on different countries and their groups
The total impact of the total global treats to different countries and their groups will be determined by the component of human security C sl being the part of index of sustainable development in formula (1).
Let us formalize this in the following way. Let every j country corresponds to the vector In correspondence with each country j a vector ES is a global decrease in energy security (determined by the index of energy security calculated by the formula 7); ВB is misbalanced biological capacity of the Earth and needs of the mankind in the biosphere in terms of changing world's demography (measured in global hectares per person); GINI is growing inequality between people and countries of the Earth (measured by Gini-index which changes within the range from 1 to 100; where 0 is a minimum inequality, 100 is maximum inequality); GD is the spread of global infectious diseases (measured by the total quantity of the people [millions per year] died from diarrhea diseases, AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria); CM is child mortality (measured by the number of children who died under 5 per 100 newborn) CP is the growth of corruption (measured by the index of corruption perception varying within the range from 0 to 10; where 0 is a maximum corruption level and 10 -minimum corruption level); WA I s the limited access to drinking-water (the percentage of the population which has no access to drinking-water); GW is global warming (measured by the quantity of carbon dioxide emissions in metric tones); SF is state fragility (measured by State Fragility Index (The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, n.d.), which changes in the range from 0 to 23, where 0 -minimum fragility; 23 -maximum fragility); ND is index of vulnerability to natural disasters (calculated by the formula (8)).
The source data for each danger are normalized by the formula (4) and in the case of necessity converted for the maximum threat to correspond to 0 and minimum threat to correspond to 1. Thus, after normalization the more each threat approaches its zero value it becomes the most "likely to occur" in each specific country. But the more its value approaches 1 it becomes more 'unlikely to happen' in that country.
After the normalization for all global threats, the normalized vector is obtained: Let us calculate the value for each component of life security C sb , which is norm of Minskoski, which is formed of normalized threats according to P = 3, n = 10: It should be mentioned that in practice the parameter P is mostly chosen to be equal 2. An increase in this parameter increases the model sensitivity for each part of the vector and vice versa its decrease smoothes (reduces) this sensitivity. That is why on the basis of the data analysis of the mentioned threats it is advisable to enlarge parameter P from the value 2 to 3, to increase sensitivity of the models to the threats being insignificant by their quantitative values if compared to the other models but being important by their substantial values.
Let us also introduce the value of vulnerability of the country to the total of the global threats which is the inverse value to the component of the life securityy С sl : Thus, the SDGM model (1-12) combines a lot of indicators and indexes included in it by mathematical correlations making their algebraic convolution. This model combines the data of different nature i.e. economic, ecological and socio-institutional one. Thus, it shows the reverse connection and balance between three integral spheres of society development.
With the help of this model it is possible to obtain the numerical value for every dimension of the quality of life and also its single matrix that considers all three dimensions together.

Computation for general simulation
The mathematical simulation of sustainable development processes can be performed in three stages. At the first stage we will perform the estimation of life quality dimension C ql as the component of sustainable development index in the formula (1)

The estimation of human life quality as index of the sustainable development
Calculation of the life quality component C qt of sustainable development and the level of its harmonization G = 1-α will be performed with the use of the mathematical model SDGM (chapter 2.1) and global indices (tables 1 and 2).The initial data for the SDGM model will be taken from the annual reports of such international organizations as UNO, Heritage It should be mentioned that owing to its geographical position and economic status Russia enters the 2 nd , 3 rd and 4 th group simultaneously, while Germany, France and Great Britain belong to the 1 st and 2 nd groups. countries are not oriented towards the usage of significant natural recourses and cheap workforce. The characteristic feature of these countries is domination of intellectual and highly-technological labor in the additional cost of their economies. All these countries are the world leaders by the ecological dimension of the world. Their innovative activity is of high level; over 4% of their GNP is spent for research and development.

Ten leading countries
Since the beginning of 1990-s they have been actively working in order to implement the model of the 'environmental economy' and knowledge-based economy. They started largescale production of new knowledge, 'ecosystem' products and services and in the course of the following few years they included social assets into their strategy as another productive factor of the development. That is why now these counties are the countries with wellharmonized life quality components of the sustainable development i.e. economic, ecological and social ones. These countries have become the closest to the model of the 'smart' society which is the highest form of the developed, knowledge-based society.  Although they have leading GNP indices in the world they are still on 20-30 places in the world list by quality characteristics of their economic, renewable environmental resources and development of their social assets.

The Group of Eight countries (
The only exception in this group is Russia (69 th position) which being formally included into the Group of Eight is at the same time "excluded" frotm it by the qualitative characteristics. Dependence of Russian economy on the energy sector is extremely high. This field provides the country with almost 25% of GDP and 50% of national export that makes Russia rather sensitive to and dependent on global market conditions. These results in narrowing the diversification of economic interests of Russia, which in its turn, provides aggressive statemonopoly foreign policy of the country in energy field.

BRIC-country group (Brazil, Russia, India and China) is characterized by rapid increase
in their economies development that annually reaches 8-12 %. This is provided both due to the growth of innovational, highly-technological components of the development of these countries and by intensive use of their own natural and environmental resources, involvement of cheap labor, giant consumption of organic types of fuel (oil, gas and coil).
In spite of the rapid economic growth these countries hold from the 48 th (Brazil) to 85 th (India) positions in the rating table by the life quality component of sustainable development (Table 5).
This can be explained by the low level of harmonization of sustainable development for this group of countries at the expense of prior economic development and at the same time substantial backlogs in environmental and social spheres. The countries of this group are characterized by the decrease in ecological results, increase in inequality between people, high corruption levels that tend to increase. These and other factors of ecological and social character restrain harmonized sustainable development of the group of BRIC-countries. For the countries of this group it is not current position by the life quality component of sustainable development that is of great importance but the dynamics of the qualitative changes and differentiation scale that have been observed for the last 15-20 years. From the approximately equal initial conditions in the late 80-ies of the last century, the countries of this group have passed through very different political, economic and mental changes for historically short period of time.

Rate
The best examples of successful development were shown by the countries of the Baltic, Central and Eastern Europe, and the worst ones were shown by the countries of the Central Asia and North-Caucasian countries of the former USSR. Table 7. Except for South Africa, Tunis and Algeria, they belong to the poorest countries in the world, the GDP per person of which is lower than 5000 dollars.

African countries listed by the life quality component of sustainable development are shown in
According to the data of the International Organization "Transparency International", these countries have the highest levels of corruption, and according to the World Health Organization they have the highest levels of spreading global diseases, such as AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria. In 2010 the characteristics of these countries (except Tunis) greatly decreased in comparison with the previous years, not only by the life quality component in general, but also by all three dimensions of this component. The positive tendency of the sustainable development of Tunis can be explained by significant improvement of innovation climate especially in the sphere of information technologies after the UNO World Summit on Information Society was held in this country in 2005.  introduce for every j country the correlation between the clusters of the countries:

Rate
The calculations will be performed for the 5 groups of countries mentioned above.      Analyzing Ukraine by its vulnerability to the global threats we see that in comparison with 2009 the rate of its national security has become slightly better, but still remains significantly low (by the human life security index Ukraine has reached the 65 th position from 78 th position). For Ukraine the worst threats still are the following: level of spreading of global diseases, especially AIDS and tuberculosis, which is one of the highest in the world; very high level of corruption; low level of energy security; high child mortality; high level of state fragility.

The estimation of sustainable development index as quarter functional of human life security and quality
Having

Country profiles construction on example of Ukraine
One of the main applications of the Sustainable Development Gauging Matrix (SDGM) is using actual data on indicators and parameters of sustainable development for a given country with the purpose of decision-making at various levels of the country's governance.
Using the country profiles service (http://wdc.org.ua/en/services/country-profilesvisualization) provided by WDC-Ukraine one can easily obtain dashboard for each world country to perform further in-depth analysis.
For 2010 results Ukraine has Isd=1,889, Cql=0,854, Csl=1,036 with rankings #68, #73, #65 correspondingly. Each sustainable development component and its can be displayed in a dimension diagram (Fig. 7). Considering the quality of life diagram one can point out, that Ukraine has better developed social dimension and poorer economic dimension. Analyzing the security of life component we can name as strengths indicators which values are better than average: people inequality (GINI), access to potable water (WA), health (CM, GD) and natural disasters (ND). Accordingly weaknesses are energy security (ES), biological balance (BB), corruption perception (CP), CO2 emissions (GW) and state instability (SI). The most critical situation is with corruption and state instability that corresponds to the evaluations of experts from many international organizations like World Economic Forum, World Bank, etc. about Ukraine development problems.

Conclusion
In this research the system of indexes and indicators has been developed and the gauging matrix for sustainable development processes (SDGM) in three dimensions: economic, ecological and socio-institutional has been offered. Using this matrix and initial data, a. b.
obtained by the recognized international organizations we have developed the mathematical model that gives the possibility to calculate the components of human life quality and security as the components of sustainable development index and harmonization level of this development for every country. The global modeling of sustainable development processes for the large group of the countries in terms of human life quality and security has been performed. The results of modeling have been explained in details for every dimension of the sustainable development.

Acknowledgment
The author expresses his gratitude to the employees of ICSU World Data Center for Geoinformatics and Sustainable Development Kostiantyn Yefremov, Andrew Boldak, Alexis Pasichny, Tetyana Matorina, Olena Poptsova for their assistance in data gathering and computer modeling of the presented results. The technological advancement of our civilization has created a consumer society expanding faster than the planet's resources allow, with our resource and energy needs rising exponentially in the past century. Securing the future of the human race will require an improved understanding of the environment as well as of technological solutions, mindsets and behaviors in line with modes of development that the ecosphere of our planet can support. Sustainable development offers an approach that would be practical to fuse with the managerial strategies and assessment tools for policy and decision makers at the regional planning level.

How to reference
In order to correctly reference this scholarly work, feel free to copy and paste the following: Michael Zgurovsky (2012). Sustainable Development Global Simulation: Analysis of Quality and Security of Human Life, Sustainable Development -Policy and Urban Development -Tourism, Life Science, Management and Environment, Prof. Chaouki Ghenai (Ed.), ISBN: 978-953-51-0100-0, InTech, Available from: http://www.intechopen.com/books/sustainable-development-policy-and-urban-development-tourism-lifescience-management-and-environment/sustainable-development-global-simulation-analysis-of-quality-andsecurity-of-human-life