1. Introduction
Since the earlier times of documented seismological observations, it was noticed that an earthquake (usually a large one) was followed by a sequence of many smaller earthquakes, originating in the epicentral region; the first, larger, earthquake is called the
The observation that in many aftershock sequences the magnitude of the largest aftershock is about
Thus, the simple definition of aftershock as an earthquake occurring after a mainshock and in its epicentral region, although implying some causal relation with the mainshock, is partly semantic and largely circumstantial. Indeed, smallish earthquakes that constitute the
If aftershocks are a result of the occurrence of the mainshock, then they should be related in a physical way with its rupture process. The aftershock-producing mechanism is not yet known, but it is conceivably related with adjustments to the post-mainshock stress field (Lay & Wallace, 1995) possibly through viscolelastic processes or through fluid flow (Nur & Booker, 1972); whichever the actual process, aftershocks should be related with the rupture plane of the mainshock. Kisslinger (1996) qualitatively defines three kinds of aftershocks: Class 1 is those occurring on the ruptured area of the fault plane or on a thin band around it. Class 2 is events that occur on the same fault but outside of the co-seismic ruptured area. Class 3 is events occurring elsewhere, on faults other than the one ruptured by the mainshock; these events, whether in the same region or not, will not be considered here as aftershocks, but rather will be classified as
The number of aftershocks decreases with time after the mainshock according to the modified Omori relation (Utsu, 1961, 1969, 1970) as
where
Aftershocks occurring within 24 to 48 hours after a large earthquake locate mostly over the co-seismic rupture area, and provide a good estimation of it (Lay & Wallace, 1995), which indicates that seismicity at the time is mostly class 1; over longer times the aftershock area increases (Felzer & Brodsky, 2006; Helmstetter & Sornette, 2002; Mogi, 1968; Tajima y Kanamori, 1985; Valdés et al., 1982), including at the edges class 2 events.
Among other reasons why aftershock identification is important, we can mention the following few examples. Aftershocks can give important information about the rupture area; also, from estimations of co-seismic slip on the fault plane by inversion of seismic waves, several authors have found that aftershocks are scarce in areas of maximum slip and concentrate around their edges (Dreger et al., 1994; Engdahl et al, 1989; Hauksson et al., 1994; Mendoza & Hartzell, 1988), so that aftershocks give information about the rupture process of the mainshock. Aftershocks can also yield information about the properties of the epicentral region (Knopoff et al., 1982; Kisslinger, 1996; Kisslinger & Hasegawa, 1991; Figueroa, 2009), and about possible triggering mechanisms (Roquemore & Simila, 1994).
Since aftershocks can be large enough to contribute to the damage (particularly after structures have been debilitated by a mainshock), it is important to estimate the hazard associated with aftershock activity (Felzer et al., 2003; Reasenberg & Jones, 1989).
It has been proposed that, since aftershock activity depends among other factors on the stress status of the region, there is research on whether some characteristics of the aftershock activity from intermediate-sized earthquakes can be useful as precursory data for large earthquake hazard estimation (e.g. Jones, 1994; Keilis-Borok et al., 1980; Wyss, 1986).
Finally, for some studies concerned with large earthquakes, aftershocks can be considered as noise, and have to be eliminated from the catalogs (e.g. Gardner. & Knopoff, 1974; Habermann & Wyss, 1984).
In order to use or eliminate aftershocks it is first necessary to identify them. Many methods have been used, ranging from visual inspection (Molchan & Dmitrieva, 1992) to sophisticated numerical techniques. A common method identifies aftershocks as those shocks locating within temporal and spatial windows having lengths which usually depend on the magnitude of the mainshock (Gardner & Knopoff, 1974; Keilis-Borok et al., 1980; Knopoff et al., 1982). More sophisticated methods identify aftershocks as belonging to a spatial cluster, consisting of events within a given distance of at least one other event belonging to the cluster, which includes the mainshock (Davis & Frohlich 1991a,b; Frohlich & Davis, 1985). A variation of the window method considers events from larger to smaller magnitudes with the size of the spatial windows a function of the magnitude, and density of events (Prozorov & Dziewonski, 1982; Prozorov, 1986). Other methods include recognizing some statistical property (e.g. Kagan & Knopoff 1976, 1982; Vere-Jones & Davies 1966) or interpreting the relations between events according to some statistical chain or branching model (Molchan & Dmitrieva, 1992; Reasenberg, 1985).
Our method includes some of the above mentioned techniques used to discard events which cannot be aftershocks, and then proceeds to identify aftershocks based on the physical model of a rupture plane and on recognized statistical relationships. An early unsophisticated application of the rupture plane model, which proved that this principle of aftershock identification was feasible, was part of an unpublished MSc. thesis (Granados, 2000).
2. The method
We work with seismic catalogs containing occurrence time (days), hypocentral
Any events occurring before the event with the largest magnitude
A rough time cutoff, eliminates events occurring after more than an optional cutoff time (default is
The extent of the aftershock area depends on the energy, i.e. on the magnitude, of the mainshock (Utsu, & Seki, 1955), as does the rupture area. A first rough spatial discrimination, based on an average of the empirical magnitude
or (Kagan, 2004):
eliminates events farther away from the hypocenter than 1.5 times the
Next, a spatial clustering analysis, where events separated by no more than a given critical distance
The parameters in the modified Omori’s law (1) are not known a priori; they are estimated from the statistics of the aftershocks (Davis & Frohlich, 1991b; Guo & Ogata, 1997; Ogata, 1983), which we do not yet have. However, this relation tells us that for long enough times after the occurrence of the mainshock the number of aftershocks decreases until seismic activity in the epicentral region returns to its background level (Ogata & Shimazaki, 1984). When aftershock occurrence shows gaps comparable to those characterizing the background seismicity, we can consider that the aftershock activity is, if not ended, at least scarce enough to be comparable to the background activity and can no longer be distinguished from it. The critical gap length depends on the region and the magnitude threshold of the observations; we use a default critical gap length
Weights, based on relation (1), are optionally assigned to the remaining events, using typical values for
Next, plane fitting is carried out iteratively; at each iteration, a plane that passes through the mainshock hypocenter is fitted to all remaining events, through a genetic scheme described below, and fit outliers (events too far away from the plane) are discarded. Iteration continues until the goodness-of-fit criterion is met (successful fit) or until a preset maximum number of iterations is attained (unsuccessful fit).
The
The genetic plane search for the plane, characterized by its azimuth
To estimate the error of fit for each candidate plane, for each azimuth
and in the
where
The parameter pairs corresponding to the best
Next,
where
Errors are computed for the children and the
For the current iteration the best fit is for the plane corresponding to parent number one,
where
are eliminated as outliers.
This method has been implemented as a Matlab program,
A variation of this method is used as a function by program
where
where
In
The program optionally outputs a catalog excluding identified aftershocks.
3. Application
We will now show some examples of the application of the method. The
3.1. Aftplane: transcurrent regime, Joshua Tree and Landers earthquakes
In 1992, two large earthquakes, the Joshua Tree, April 23
Figure 1 shows the location of the study area in souther California, USA, and its recent seismicity; the faults ruptured during the Joshua Tree and Landers earthquakes are located within the red diamond.
For both events we used maximum allowable horizontal and vertical location uncertainties of
3.2. Aftplane: Joshua Tree earthquake
The catalog for the Joshuea tree earthquake contained 5075 events spanning 66.30 days (~0.182 yr). Figure 2 (left) shows the 3497 remaining events after the first rough elimination by acceptable uncertainties and by an estimated expected fault length of ~7.97 km corresponding to a critical distance of 11.96 km. Figure 2 (right) shows as blue circles the 3379 shocks identified as clustering with the main event.
The main Joshua Tree shock and the identified 1094 aftershocks are shown in figure 3, both in a plan view (left) which clearly shows the resulting 171.6º faultplane azimuth, and a cross section along the fault plane azimuth (right) which shows the resulting 86.6º faultplane dip. The values found by aftplane agree extremely well with those estimated by Velasco et al. (1994) of strike 171º, dip 89°. Figure 4 shows a cross section parallel to the fault plane, illustrating aftershock concentrations.
3.2.1. Aftplane: Landers earthquake
The catalog for the Landers earthquake contained 49,605 events spanning 4,932.52 days (~13.514 yr). Figure 5 (left) shows the 17,553 remaining events after the first rough elimination by acceptable uncertainties and by an estimated expected fault length of ~76.78 km corresponding to a critical distance of 115.17 km. Figure 5 (right) shows as blue circles the 12,834 shocks identified as clustering with the main event.
The main Landers shock and the identified 3,225 aftershocks are shown in figure 6, in a cross section seen along the determined 340.6º fault plane azimuth, which shows the resulting 70.1º faultplane dip. The values found by aftplane agree extremely well with those estimated by Velasco et al. (1994) of strike 341°º, dip 70°. Figure 7 shows a cross section parallel to the fault plane, illustrating aftershock concentrations.
3.3. Aftplane: subduction regime, Armería (Tecomán, Colima) earthquake
The Armería
Figure 8 shows the location of the study area, the mainshock epicenter (red star) and the subsequent seismicity recorded and located by the Colima Seismic Network (RESCO).
Nuñez et al (2004) and Yagi et al (2003) estimated a fault plane with a 300° strike and a quite shallow 20° dip, which agrees with the 20° to 30° dip of the subduction zone determined by Andrews et al (2010).
For aftplane we used the RESCO catalog with the same parameter values mentioned above, except for horizontal and vertical location uncertainties of
The catalog for the Armería earthquake contained 11,475 events spanning 1,529.9 days (~4.192 yr). Figure 9 (left) shows the 10,275 remaining events after the first rough elimination by acceptable uncertainties and by an estimated expected fault length of ~92.73 km corresponding to a critical distance of 139.09 km. Figure 9 (right) shows as blue circles the 7,109 shocks identified as clustering with the main event.
The main Armería shock and the identified 460 aftershocks are shown in figure 10, in a cross section seen along the determined 86.2º fault plane azimuth, which shows the resulting 33.2º faultplane dip. The values found by aftplane agree extremely well with the above mentioned estimates strike 300° and 20° to 30° (Nuñez et al., 2004; Yagi et al., 2004; Andrews et al., 2010). Figure 11 shows a cross section parallel to the fault plane, illustrating aftershock concentrations.
3.4. Cleancat: whole Joshua Tree-Landers fault system
To illustrate the use of program
The parameters used are
Figure 11 shows all events in the catalog (black crosses), and identified aftershocks as yellow circles. Total processing consisted of 10 iterations which identified and eliminated 11,665, 4,212, 1,702, 86, 94, 30, 80, 18, 49, and 1 aftershocks, respectively, for a total of 17,937 aftershocks.
Figure 12 shows the occurrence times and magnitudes of the largest events in the catalog (top), and below them (middle) is plotted the ocurrence density (per
Use of
4. Conclusions
We present a simple method for identification and/or elimination of aftershocks, based on the generally accepted assumption that aftershocks are related to the fault rupture of the mainshock. The method has been tried on various catalogs with good results and, when aftershocks are numerous enough, good estimates of rupture planes that agree very well with those reported in the literature.
A variation of the method used for eliminating all aftershocks from a seismicity catalog (“catalog cleaning”) uses, iteratively, a variation of the same principle. Using the seismicity occurrence time rate as illustration and criterion of the effectiveness of the method, indicates that the required difference between mainshock and aftershocks
Acknowledgments
Many thanks to José Frez, Juan García A., and María Luisa Argote for useful criticism and comments. We are grateful to RESCO and Gabriel Reyes, and to the SCEC for the use of their catalogs. We also thank Mr Davor Vidic of Intech for the kind invitation to participate in the present book.
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