Ng and Perron (2001) unit root test results [28].
\r\n\t
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Venkateswarlu",coverURL:"https://cdn.intechopen.com/books/images_new/371.jpg",editedByType:"Edited by",editors:[{id:"58592",title:"Dr.",name:"Arun",surname:"Shanker",slug:"arun-shanker",fullName:"Arun Shanker"}],productType:{id:"1",chapterContentType:"chapter",authoredCaption:"Edited by"}},{type:"book",id:"878",title:"Phytochemicals",subtitle:"A Global Perspective of Their Role in Nutrition and Health",isOpenForSubmission:!1,hash:"ec77671f63975ef2d16192897deb6835",slug:"phytochemicals-a-global-perspective-of-their-role-in-nutrition-and-health",bookSignature:"Venketeshwer Rao",coverURL:"https://cdn.intechopen.com/books/images_new/878.jpg",editedByType:"Edited by",editors:[{id:"82663",title:"Dr.",name:"Venketeshwer",surname:"Rao",slug:"venketeshwer-rao",fullName:"Venketeshwer Rao"}],productType:{id:"1",chapterContentType:"chapter",authoredCaption:"Edited by"}},{type:"book",id:"4816",title:"Face Recognition",subtitle:null,isOpenForSubmission:!1,hash:"146063b5359146b7718ea86bad47c8eb",slug:"face_recognition",bookSignature:"Kresimir Delac and Mislav Grgic",coverURL:"https://cdn.intechopen.com/books/images_new/4816.jpg",editedByType:"Edited by",editors:[{id:"528",title:"Dr.",name:"Kresimir",surname:"Delac",slug:"kresimir-delac",fullName:"Kresimir Delac"}],productType:{id:"1",chapterContentType:"chapter",authoredCaption:"Edited by"}}]},chapter:{item:{type:"chapter",id:"72261",title:"Learning Culture as the Enabler of Business Transformation",doi:"10.5772/intechopen.91175",slug:"learning-culture-as-the-enabler-of-business-transformation",body:'The discovery and utilization of technology have brought fundamental and revolutionary changes in the world. These changes have enabled companies to have better opportunities in creating and delivering value to their customers. The discovery and utilization of mechanization, electricity, and automation technology have led to Industry 1.0, Industry 2.0, and Industry 3.0. These technologies have enabled companies to conduct mass production simultaneously non-stop without interruption 24 hours a day, 7 days a week [1]. The latest developments of the Internet and the utilization of digital technologies or cyber-physical systems in doing business have also led the world to Industry 4.0.
Digital technology enables companies to collaborate with different parties wherever and whenever around the world in achieving their sustainable business growth [1]. In addition to making it easy to collaborate and innovate, digital technology also brings companies into the VUCA World—a world which makes business become more volatile, more uncertain, more complex, and more ambiguous [2, 3, 4]. The VUCA world causes the convergence of various defined industries. One consequence of the VUCA world is that the life expectation of companies has decreased. In 1958, average of a company’s life expectation that was listed in the Standard and Poor’s 500 was 61 years. This life expectation had shrunk to 25 years in 1980 and 18 years in 2012. It is even predicted that a company’s life expectation is going to shrink to 10 years in 2020 [5].
That is why one of the challenges companies face today is the business sustainability. Many companies, especially large companies that become the market leaders, must be able to adapt quickly by developing business agility [6, 7, 8, 9]. Business agility is the ability of a company to anticipate and utilize business opportunities and to avoid the negative consequences of changes quickly, flexibly, and decisively [10]. Meanwhile, business agility is defined as the organizational capability to innovate through collaboration and to anticipate business challenges and opportunities before these changes occur [7].
There are three types of initiatives that companies can take in adapting to business environment changes. They are developmental, transitional, and transformational initiatives [11]. Building and developing business flexibility is a transformational initiative because it requires fundamental change in culture, behavior, and mentality of people in the organization as a whole. The initiative has uncertainty and runs a high risk of failure. The initiative also requires a lot of resources and the effectiveness of the transformational initiative will have a major impact on the company’s sustainability.
From the perspective of organizational development (OD), the development of business agility requires change management capability in open system context. It is more than individual or group dynamic context. The transformational initiative is implemented in the context of the organization as an open system where the business is influenced by the environment and consists of various and interacting subsystems. In the open systems context, transformational initiatives can be viewed in four main subsystems. They are organizational goals and values, management capability, psychological and technical perspective [12]. This chapter elaborates the development of business agility as a transformational initiative that focused on the organizational goals and values subsystem only.
Based on research in more than 100 prominent companies, it is discovered that there are eight reasons why a transformation fails. Those factors are: (1) easy to compromise with circumstances, (2) not building coalitions that are strong enough to support the transformation, (3) underestimating the power of vision, (4) not communicating the vision of transformation intensively, (5) having obstacles hindering the vision of transformation, (6) no transformation to short-term success of transformation, (7) explain the success of information transformation too quickly, and (8) make transformation was not part of the corporate culture [13]. Because corporate culture is an important factor in determining the success of a transformation, this chapter attempts to further evaluate transformation initiatives to build business agility from the perspective of corporate culture.
Corporate culture can be defined as a system of ideas that is developed dynamically in a social system called business organization [14], contains a set of defined attitudes, values, behaviors, and expectations [15], gained through shared experiences from external adaptation and internal integration processes [16], then agreed as the way of thinking, perceiving, and responding to solve problems [17] and become distinctive identity which distinguish themselves from other companies or organizations [18].
Corporate culture is an organizational capability that is source of sustainable competitive advantage (SCA), as long as corporate culture is well managed and developed by company; produce a positive effect on business performance; difficult for other companies to imitate; and only a few companies developed it [19]. An empirical research has been conducted on eight pairs of companies from eight different industries. Each pair consists of a successful company and a company with financial difficulties in the same industry. The research measured and tested every aspect and how important are the differences between the two groups of companies when doing business. The research concluded that successful companies have proven significantly better at six capabilities: managing markets; managing products; managing resources; managing operational systems; managing managerial systems; and managing corporate culture. Organizational capability in managing corporate culture is an essential factor and differentiator that distinguishes successful companies and companies with financial difficulties [20].
Previous empirical research has also shown that corporate culture has a positive and significant impact on an organization’s ability to adapt, innovate, be agile, and dare to take risks in a turbulent business environment [21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27]. Corporate culture influences the strategic orientation and financial performance of the company [21]. In the context of corporate globalization, corporate culture plays an important role in influencing corporate capacity to take risks. Cultural values that prevent uncertainty and harmony have negative effects, while cultural values that have individualism have a positive effect on the company’s ability to take risk [22].
Learning culture has a positive and significant impact on the organizational flexibility in the port industry [23]. A flexibility-oriented culture or development culture has a positive and significant impact on adaptability and the ability to innovate [24]. Corporate culture that is focused on novelty has a positive and significant impact on the strategic flexibility of the company. Although a business culture focused on efficiency has no influence on strategic agility [25], corporate culture that is hierarchical—such as bureaucratic, strict with the rules and one directional from top to bottom, weakens the effect of absorbency on organizational agility [26]. Related to transformational initiatives to build business agility, the business culture can be an enabler as well as a block for the company in dealing with changes. A company cannot create a corporate culture overnight, nor can it change a corporate culture overnight. But we can identify which behaviors are relevant and important for developing business agility and then we can nurture them in the context of corporate culture in the whole organization [27].
Company as an organization that deals with dynamic changes needs adaptive capability. The adaptive capability is developed by learning activities individually, collectively, and organizationally. Those learning activities are not sporadic and temporary, but they must be conducted systematically and continuously.
Learning has become a culture with learning activities in the company displaying four indicators [16]. First is the width indicator. Learning activity is not only carried out by one or several people but by most people in the company. They come from various functions and various layers of the organization. Second is the depth indicator. Learning activity is not an impulsive or temporary behavior, but it has become a habitual behavior or even become a permanent character. Third is the integration indicator. Learning activity has been integrated with the main systems within the company. Fourth is the structural stability indicator. Learning activity will be conducted continuously. No matter who is the top executive of the company, no matter who comes in and goes out the company, learning activity is continuously conducted in the whole company.
Learning culture is a derivative concept of corporate culture in management and it comes from the culture concept in sociology. Culture concept refers to AGIL scheme from the theory of action [28]. AGIL scheme explains that a social system in order to become sustainable requires four main functions to be considered: first, Adaptation—how the resources needed by the social system can be fulfilled; second, Goal attainment—how the social system collectively sets a common goal and makes it happen; third Integration—how the social system maintains solidity and coordinates to achieve common goals; fourth, Latency—how the social system creates, maintains, and passes on relevant values to new members who come later. Organizational culture is part of the latency function, which is how organizations create, maintain, and pass down relevant value systems for the sustainability and future progress of the company to all existing and new employees.
In the early 1980s, two books were published that sparked the development concept of corporate culture. Those books are In Search of Excellence [29] which concludes that the difference between high- and low-performing companies is that they have a strong culture and Corporate Culture [30] which suggests that organizational performance can be improved by strengthening the shared values that are believed by whole employees in their daily business practices.
The concept of learning culture also refers to organizational culture theory [31], organizational learning theory [32], and learning organization [33]. Organizational culture theory explains several things. First, organizational culture is an adaptive feature of organizations that has an influence on organizational effectiveness. Second, company founders and top leaders are very influential in instilling values into organizational culture. Third, organizational culture reflects collective learning about what works/does not work for dealing with organizational challenges. Fifth, organizational culture is composed of artifacts, values, and basic assumptions used by companies in carrying out business practices [31].
Whereas organizational learning theory [32] explains that in facing a changing environment, organizations are encouraged to create mechanisms to produce effective actions and then be taught to all organizations so that organizational goals can be realized. There are two types of learning, namely: (1) single-loop learning—which occurs when errors are detected and corrected but do not make changes in principle, and (2) double-loop learning—which occurs when correcting errors and requires changes in principle [34]. This organizational learning theory continues to grow and then becomes the basis for the concept of learning organization [33].
Learning organization [33] explains that culture is a pattern of basic assumptions learned by groups or organizations to overcome problems in terms of external adaptation and internal integration. This is considered a valid way and is taught to new members of the organization as a perspective for overcoming future challenges. In developing a company into a learning organization, there are five subsystems that must support one another. Those are learning process, organization, employees, knowledge, and technology. The learning process subsystem must get attention, especially on three things: first, the level of learning that includes individuals, teams, and organizations; second, the type of learning that are anticipative, adaptive, and/or action learning; third, learning skills, which consist of systemic thinking, mental models, personal mastery, independent learning, and dialogic processes [33].
The previous researchers have their own definitions and views about learning culture. Organizational learning culture is an organizational culture that is directed to encourage and facilitate employees in doing organizational learning, both individual and group learning, and the learning contributes to organizational development, performance, and success [35]. Learning culture has the capacity for integrating people and structures to move organizations toward learning and sustainable change [36]. Learning culture is viewed as values, beliefs, and assumptions that encourage the realization of collective learning in the whole organizations [37].
Learning culture from organizational culture, has a difference or distinctiveness than other organizational culture such as work culture, service culture, or mutual culture. Learning culture makes learning as core value of the company. Learning culture is oriented to the development of human capabilities. Learning culture concerns all stakeholders, stimulates experimentation, and fosters responsible for risk attitude. Learning culture builds a willingness and openness to learn from mistakes and promotes open and intensive communication to work together, interdependence, and knowledge sharing.
The previous study has proven that corporate culture has positive and significant impact on work engagement. Employees who have a mindset, value system, and habits that are relevant to the corporate culture will be encouraged to stay engaged to the company.
Some concepts that related to corporate culture that have been proven empirically to be antecedents of work engagement are organizational culture [38, 39, 40, 41], psycho-social safety climate [42], psychological climate [43, 44], supportive organizational culture [45], service culture [46], safety culture [47], and ethical culture [48].
Several studies have proven empirically that culture has a significant effect on work engagement. Learning culture has a positive and significant effect on organizational commitment and job satisfaction [49]. Organizational learning culture has a positive and significant effect on job satisfaction and customer satisfaction. While organizational commitment and job satisfaction are also part of work engagement. As a consequence of this, both studies have indirectly proven that there is a cultural influence on work engagement [23].
Empirical study on 394 hospitality professionals in the United States have proved empirically that psychological climate is an antecedent of work attachment as well as moderating variables on the effect of core self-evaluation on work attachment. Psychological climate covers aspects of customer orientation, internal services, managerial support, as well as information and communication. Meanwhile, the psychological climate has a close concept with corporate culture [44].
Organizational learning culture has a positive and significant influence on affective commitment and organizational citizenship behavior, and intention to exit. Affective commitment and intention to exit are also part of work engagement [50]. Workplace ethical culture through mediation from perceived ethical leadership has a significantly positive effect on work engagement in the whole dimensions—vigor, dedication, and absorption [51].
A multi-level longitudinal research on 134 employees in Malaysia also proved that hierarchical culture and empowering leadership significantly impact on work engagement [52]. But contrary to empirical study by Collier, Fitzpatrick, Siedlecki, and Dolansky, it has proved oppositely that employee engagement actually has a positive and significant effect on the application of safety culture by nurses from 25 ICUs in United States hospitals. Work engagement is the antecedent of the culture, not the culture is an antecedent of attachment [53].
In addition, the learning culture also has a positive and significant impact on learning agility of the employees. Learning culture will encourage the employees continuously to carry out learning activities individually, collectively, and organizationally in their daily routine activity. In the long term, it will build and develop learning agility. Learning agility is different from learning ability.
Learning agility is defined as the individual ability to be flexible and speedy in utilizing experiences to deal with complex and new situations. Learning agility is reflected in four dimensions: (1) mental agility is the willingness to make difficulties, failures, and mistakes as a vehicle for learning; (2) change agility is enthusiasm in utilizing the changes that occur as a vehicle for learning; (3) result agility is the ability to focus on achievement despite being in a complex condition for a long period; and (4) people agility is the ability to learn from the experiences of others and collaborate with others in achieving superior performance.
Several studies have empirically proven the impact of corporate culture on learning. Organizational learning culture together with transformational leadership has a significant positive impact on organizational learning which then impacts the learning performance of the agricultural faculty [54]. Learning culture had a positive and significant effect on learning achievement of 209 nursing students experimentally in three different learning environments [55]. Organizational learning culture has a positive and significant impact on individual capabilities, especially in exploration, exploitation, and individual creativity [56].
Study on 475 logistics service provider units in the United States has proven that learning culture and knowledge management have a positive and significant effect on human capital [57]. Meanwhile, human capital is knowledge, skills, and abilities obtained and accumulated through various learning processes such as training, development, education, and experiential learning [58]. Islamic work ethics has a positive and significant effect on adaptive performance mediated by innovative work behavior and moderated by ethical leadership through conducting research on 257 hospitality industry employees in Pakistan. This confirms that the work culture based on Islamic ethics influences the ability to learn, especially in innovation [59]. Empirical study on 123 lecturers from the Top 100 MBAs in India and proved that organizational learning culture had a significant and positive effect on motivation to transfer training, which was negatively moderated by resistance to change and moderated moderately positive by coaching performance [60].
Learning culture as a corporate culture has been proven from the many studies which apparently not only impact on work engagement, but also impact on learning agility of their employees. Learning culture will encourage employees not only to be engaged with the company for long period, but also endorse employees to adapt continuous and disruptive changes through their flexibility and speed in learning.
Based on its impact on work engagement and learning agility, corporate culture can be grouped into three categories: No Impact, Single Impact, and Double Impact. No impact category is a corporate culture that has no impact or only has a low impact on work engagement and learning agility. We call this corporate culture a hierarchical-centralistic culture. Single impact category is a company culture that impacts on learning agility only or on work engagement only. This category can make employees engaged-but-not-adaptive or adaptive-but-not-engaged. The third category is the double impact culture. That is learning culture. Corporate culture that impacts both work engagement and learning agility. The learning culture makes employees engaged and adaptive to the business changes (Figure 1).
Corporate culture category.
A hierarchical-centralistic culture makes teams or organizations less dynamic. Because subordinates who deal directly with operational situations on the ground do not have the freedom to think and decide which actions will be the best to. Meanwhile superiors do not have enough information to make quick and right decisions. As a result, companies experience delays as well as rigidity in the face of a constantly changing environment. Besides that, in a hierarchical-centralistic culture, all problems that arise naturally become the authority to think and make decisions. Employees only accept decisions and carry out task orders.
Therefore, the corporate culture should be transformed from a hierarchical-centralistic culture to a learning culture. It is important for us to elaborate what the essential differences between hierarchical-centralistic and learning culture are. By using the culture map, the hierarchical-centralistic culture has eight tendencies:
Hierarchical: In hierarchical-centralistic culture, there is a psychological distance or power distance between superiors and subordinates. Superiors treat subordinates inferior so that subordinates are not free enough to express their thoughts to superiors. Then superiors tend to be closed to the thoughts of subordinates.
Top-down: In a hierarchical-centralistic culture, decisions are made entirely by superiors. Subordinates are only involved in the process of execution or implementation.
Indirect negative feedback: In hierarchical-centralistic culture, there is often a sense of reluctance to provide negative feedback to the work team, especially to superiors, for fear of offending the person.
High context: Hierarchical-centralistic culture in communication really cares about the right ways to convey thoughts, rather than the true intentions and goals.
Relationship based: In trusting, other people are more inclined based on relationships that are built. It is hard to trust people who are just known or did not have a good relationship before.
Avoid confrontation: In hierarchical-centralistic culture, people always avoid arguing to achieve objective and factual thinking.
Principle first: In hierarchical-centralistic culture, persuading others is done by presenting the underlying philosophical principles.
Linear time: In hierarchical-centralistic culture, activities are arranged sequentially or one by one, completing one thing first, then continuing to other things next (Figure 2).
Hierarchical-centralistic vs. learning culture.
Meanwhile, the learning culture that wants to be developed companies for enabling business agility development. It has the opposite tendency compared to the hierarchical-centralized culture:
Egalitarian: In learning culture, relationship between superiors and subordinates should be equal. Power distance is strived to be as minimal as possible. This will make it easier for subordinates to express their ideas and superiors are open to learning from subordinates.
Consensual: In learning culture, decisions made should be the result of a mutual agreement between the supervisor who is responsible for the results and subordinates who are responsible for the process.
Direct negative feedback: In learning culture, everyone has freedom to convey negative feedback to anyone. The underlying spirit is to achieve the common good (collaborative driven), not to bring down other parties (competitive driven).
Low context: In learning culture, communication should pay more attention to the content of messages rather than the way they are delivered. It cares more about what is conveyed than who delivers it.
Task-based: In learning culture, persons should be trusted based on their ability to complete tasks well, not based on how good the relationship is. Thus, even new people who join the team can be quickly given the opportunity to get involved in the problem-solving effort.
Confrontation: In learning culture, confrontation or argumentation is the best way to achieve objective and factual thinking.
Application first: In learning culture, others are persuaded based on aspects of application. How well the new concepts, ideas, or findings can be applied and provide the expected results. It is not based on philosophical concepts that become the background.
Flexible time: In learning culture; activities are scheduled flexibly. It is more goal-oriented and accommodates lots of dynamic changes or developments. More activities are carried out in parallel rather than just serially.
By understanding the culture map that explains the differences in characteristics between hierarchical-centralistic and learning culture, it makes it easy for us to carry out transformational initiative in developing corporate culture. By using cultural elements, the set of behaviors of employees can be directed more in line with what is expected by learning culture. It is especially the behaviors in communicating, evaluating, persuading, leading, deciding, trusting, disagreeing, and scheduling.
Technological developments have brought the companies into industrial revolution 4.0 and VUCA world, which makes companies experience continuous and disruptive changes intensively. For protecting their sustainable growth, it is imperative for companies to take transformational initiative. Transformational initiative is directed to develop business agility as the organizational adaptive capability. In implementing transformational initiative, corporate culture often becomes an obstacle or a blocker rather than an enabler. Directing corporate culture into learning culture is one of the recommended efforts.
Learning culture is a corporate culture that encourages learning activities carried out systematically and continuously on individuals, teams, and organization scope. The learning culture that is developed will have an impact on work engagement and also learning agility of employees throughout the company. Culture map can be used as compass to help the management in directing corporate culture into learning culture.
The economic growth, unemployment, inflation and current account balance are the most important variables that show the performance of an economy. The quality of the relationship between these variables is extremely important when the applying economic policies. Thus there may be harmony or contradiction between the policies to be implemented on the issues. In other words, unemployment policies for economic growth also lead to a decrease in unemployment, while trying to lower inflation could put negative pressure on unemployment. Therefore the alignment or contradictions between the intended objectives and the instruments to be implemented should be taken into account when making policy proposals. In this study, the relations between growth, unemployment, inflation and current account are first discussed in theoretical terms and it is examined whether these theories are valid or not in the case of Turkey.
\nAccordingly, the Phillip curve analysis, which explains the nature of the relationship between unemployment and inflation, was analyzed in detail by comparing interpretations of different economic approaches. In the case of inflation, the demand-side policies will have an effect on these variables. In contrast, according to the Monetarist and New Classical approach, demand-side policies are ineffective and therefore unnecessary. In more accurate terms, the relationship between unemployment and inflation is temporary in the short-term because both variables may change in the same direction in the long term. After this topic was discussed in the first part of the study after then the case of Turkey was examined and discussed.
\nAnother theoretical approach that attempts to explain the relationship between macroeconomic variables analysis are known as Okun’s law. The Okun’s law suggests an inverse relationship between the growth rate and the unemployment rate. In the one study is determined by Okun with regression analysis between 1947 and 1960. This law that explained every %1 growth rate in the United States reduced the decreased the unemployment rate 0.5% points. However, the growth rate must exceed a certain level and average or trend growth rate in order to affect unemployment. Although the Okun’s law is tested for different countries which are generally verified the nature of this relationship varies considerably from country to country.
\nThe Okun’s law was explained in details in the second section and its validity was tested for Turkey in the last section with symmetric and asymmetric causality. The another important indicator of a country’s economic performance in macroeconomics is the current account balance. There is a very close relationship between the current account deficit and the growth rate which has become an important problem especially for developing countries.
\nIn the many literature of econometric studies based on the relationships between economic growth, current account deficit, inflation and unemployment have also been conducted. In their study, [1] conducted the necessary econometric analyzes to determine the relationship between the variables using the monthly data 2007–2014 economic growth, unemployment and inflation. In the study under discussion,there is a causality analysis between the current account deficit, inflation problem and growth [2]. The study [3] Brazil, Russia, India, using annual data for the period 1993–2011 belong to China and Turkey, the panel analyzed the causal relationship between the current account deficit and inflation method. The relations between Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Macedonia and Turkey for the period 1996–2012 using data on inflation and unemployment with panel cointegration analyze and causality tests [4]. They are studied causality and vector error correction model between inflation, economic, growth and unemployment in North African Countries [5]. In the study the inflation and economic growth are taken for Nigeria with regression analysis. They studied the inflation, economic growth, unemployment relationship with Var analysis for Iraq. In this study, the relationship between the current account deficits, economic growth and the current account with certain explanations are wanted to examined [6].
\nThe last part of our chapter we determined the relationship between the current account and the growth rate and they were explained with the national income inequality and the nature of this relationship was discussed in Turkey.
\nWhen we look at these relations in terms of causality, it is stated that the direction of the relationship in question will yield different results when viewed as asymmetric and symmetrical and should be adapted accordingly to their economic policies.
\nThe relationships between macroeconomic variables in an economy and the reciprocal interactions of these variables are crucial to policy proposals. The intervention was deemed unnecessary because it was assumed that the economy would always reach the full employment balance thanks to its spontaneous, intrinsic mechanisms at the time of the classic-neoclassical paradigm. However, the Great Depression system in 1929 has shown that it is insufficient to solve many problems such as especially unemployment and furthermore problems become deeper than before. Keynes’ masterpiece General Theory has been a turning point in terms of the government’s intervention in the economy and the nature of this intervention [7].
\nIt can be said that the Classic-Neoclassical paradigm is also in crisis with the publication of the General Theory which Keynes expressed his views about the crisis. Microeconomic analyses which examine the optimum distribution of resources in neoclassical theory were replaced by the analysis of macroeconomic variables such as employment, national product, total lack of demand in the post-Keynes period, and analysis of interactions between these variables. In this context, the study was published with the title “The Relation between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957” [8]. This study led to a long discussion of the relationship between inflation and unemployment and the effectiveness of its policies to be implemented. Reflecting the views of neoclassical Synthesis Keynesian economists, the original version of the Phillips Curve shows the relationship between the rate of increase of nominal wages in the UK between 1861 and 1957, i.e. wage inflation and the unemployment rate [9]. Phillips said the hypothesis that the change in monetary wage rates (the rate of change of money wage rates) is determined by the level of unemployment and the rate of change of unemployment can be generally accepted. These conclusions are of course tentative. There is need for much more detailed research into the relations between unemployment, wage rates, prices and productivity [8].
\nPaul Samuelson and Robert Solow examined the relationship between inflation and unemployment by substituting the Consumer Price Index in the United States instead of the wage rate, and thus developed a new interpretation in 1960. In this study, it was concluded that if unemployment was held at 5–6% (if unemployment were held at 5 to 6 percent) the price index could be stable, whereas if unemployment was held at 4%, there could be a 2% increase in inflation [10].
\nThis interpretation, also called the Phillips Curve, which has been modified and improved has gained great importance in the literature and has become meaningful in terms of economic policy in this way. The Philips Curve shows the inverse relationship between the unemployment rate with the inflation rate, compatible with the Keynesian approach, high inflation rate, low unemployment rate and low inflation with high unemployment rate means that a choice can be made between combinations of. The governments which can be called’ Mitte-Rechts ‘prefer the first combination, while the governments that are’ left-of-Centre ‘(‘Mitte-Links’) have adopted the second policy proposal. The stagflation process, called the combination of rising inflation and unemployment, was seen after the 1970 oil crisis. This situation has led to questioning and discussion of the stable relationship between prices and unemployment [9].
\nThe fact that the stagflation phenomenon that emerged in the late 1960s could not be explained by Phillips Curve Analysis intensified the debate on the Phillips curve durin this period. Under the fine-tuning policy, for example, if the government wants to reduce unemployment, it must increase total demand. However, it is necessary to endure some inflation increase with increasing total demand. According to Friedman and Phelps, the economy does not stabilize after the inflation rate rises. Because if the adaptive expectations approach is valid, when inflation rises, inflation-related expectations also rise. In other words, the Phillips curve shifts to the right and unemployment returns to its natural rate again. In such a case, it is possible to reduce unemployment below its natural level with ever-increasing inflation. In this context, Friedman suggests that the stable relationship between unemployment and inflation is due to differing expected inflation and realized inflation rates. When the expected and current inflation rates are the same, there will be no change in real wages and hence the level of employment. Because in this case, the expected inflation rate will be reflected in long-term wage contracts [11]. To sum up, according to Friedman’s analysis, the negative-sloping Phillips curve, that is, the existence of an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment is temporary. Friedman specifically emphasizes here that the temporary trade off relationship is due to false expectations about inflation that lead to rising inflation. In the long term, as a result of the revision of inflation expectations, the exchange relationship disappears and the curve becomes perpendicular to the horizontal axis [12].
\nAccording to neoclassical synthesis Keynesian economists the Phillips curve is negatively sloped that means there is an exchange between unemployment and inflation whereas the Monetarist economists argue that is only true in the short term. In contrast, the new classical approach suggests that the Phillips Curve is a right perpendicular to the horizontal axis both in the short run and long run. According to the new classical analysis, according to rational expectations, unemployment always remains at the level of natural unemployment, except for unforeseen shocks and random errors under the assumption that there will be no systematic error in the forecast of inflation. In other words, there is no relationship between unemployment and inflation. This situation is explained by the Lucas ‘surprise’ supply function is determined,
\nAccording to the current price level equation if the deviation (PPe) between the (P) with the expected price level (Pe) be more greater the differences between the actual production (Y) and the natural balance in the level of output (Yn) will be more as (Y − Yn). Since inflation is the same as expected inflation in rational expectations approach, current income is always at the level of natural income and unemployment is also at the level of natural and natural unemployment. It is possible to deviate from the natural level of unemployment if the inflation estimate is incorrect. Such a situation can only be explained by a “surprise” development [13], meaning that the actual inflation rate deviates from the expected inflation rate. The fact that the economy is always in balance at the natural level of unemployment means at demand-side policies are unnecessary. According to The New Classical Macroeconomics theory, which has Monetarist views at the point of origin, the conjuncture policy is ineffective. With monetary policies, it is not possible to increase production and employment levels even in the short term.
\nThe existence of a relationship between unemployment and inflation, that is, tradeoff between these two variables or not is important for policy proposals. The Keynesian economists argue that if there is an exchange between unemployment and inflation, it is possible to achieve the desired result with the demand-side policies to be implemented. In this context, expansionary monetary and fiscal policies will lead to demand expansion, resulting in unemployment reduction, while demand-biased inflation increases will occur. On the contrary if it is necessary to lower inflation, the shrinking policies that will be implemented require some amount of unemployment to be endured. In contrast, the Monetarist and new classical economists, who represent the orthodox approach, suggest that these two variables are independent of each other and that demand-side policies will have no effect on them. In this approach, which argues that inflation is always a monetary phenomenon the public intervention in the economy with cyclical policies will have unnecessary and negative consequences.
\nThe below mentioned Figure 1 shows the relationship between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate in Turkey. According to the chart, there is an inverse relationship between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate in general. In the period studied, the rate of increase in prices is low or vice versa during periods when unemployment rate is high in Turkey. In the post-2008 period when the global crisis occurred, unemployment decreased from 13 to 8% between 2009 and 2012, while the inflation rate remained unstable and rose from 6 to 9%. This can be seen as a result of expansionary monetary policies implemented in developed countries to counter the negative effects of the crisis on unemployment. As with other developing countries, capital inflows have accelerated with the increase in money supply in the global dimension. Intensive capital inflows can be said to have an effect that reduces unemployment by providing a high growth rate. The unemployment rate has started to rise after reaching its lowest level in 2012 and is nearing 14% in 2019. During this period, the inflation rate was bumpy but increased from 9 to 15%. This period occurs for the inflation and unemployment rising together and points to stagflationist developments.
\nRelationship between unemployment rate and inflation rate (2004–2019). Source: Turkish World Bank – TCMB.
\nFigure 1 shows that the rate of unemployment and inflation rose by 4 and 7 percentage points respectively in the period 2004–2019. Therefore, while it is possible to talk about the existence of a relationship between inflation and unemployment rate in the short term, it is observed that there is no exchange between the two variables in the long term. In other words, it is predictable that the expected impact of policies aimed at lowering the unemployment rate on inflation will be limited or short-term. Similarly, policies aimed at price stability should be expected to have a limited and short-term impact on unemployment.
\nOne of the highlights of the analysis on unemployment is the relationship between growth and unemployment. The main expectation of given the main determinants of economic growth is the unemployment rate decreasing in an economy where the growth is occurring or at the least the current unemployment rate does not increase.
\nIn this context, the effects of economic growth on employment or unemployment rate are examined and whether growth creates employment is the subject of research both in the world literature and in Turkey [1]. Historically, it is observed that the relationship between economic growth and employment has weakened or, in other words, become more complex in recent periods. It is observed that there is neither a one-to-one nor a stable relationship between growth and employment, especially with the developments in countries ‘economies after [14]. Economists who supported the structural adjustment policy predicted that employment would increase with the liberalization of foreign trade, which is the basis of the export-based growth strategy. What many developing countries have experienced in recent years is far from confirming these claims of neoclassical theory. In order to ensure adequate employment in an environment where the working age population is increasing at a high pace, growth must be sustained as well as high growth rates. The fact that the growth figures in Turkey have been below minus six percent three times since the 1990s shows that the growth has been extremely unstable. This indicates that the growth due to short-term foreign capital inflows is not permanent and its fragility is high with the liberalization of capital movements [15].
\nThe view that economic growth will lead to increased employment and reduce unemployment is known as Okun’s law in the literature. Arthur Okun examined the relationship between the unemployment rate and economic growth in the United States by regression analysis using quarterly data for the period 1947–1960. According to the developed regression equation, the difference between current income and full employment income varies in the opposite direction with the unemployment rate [16]. The law developed by Okun states that if the growth rate exceeds the trend or average growth rate measured at 2.25%, it will lead to a decrease in the unemployment rate. Exactly, the question of how much e ach percentage point of GDP growth that exceeds the growth trend will lower the unemployment rate is being sought. The Okun law can similarly be used to predict the growth rate needed to reduce the unemployment rate by %1 [17]. The study covering the above-mentioned period for the United States concluded that each %1growth rate over the pre-growth rate reduced the unemployment rate by %0.5 points [18]. The Okun law can be expressed by the following equation;
\nWhere Δu is the change in the unemployment rate, y is the growth rate of the product. Y* in the equation represents the growth trend of real GDP. This ratio varies from country to country. In the years in which the economy performs growth above the natural rate, there will be a change in the unemployment rate to k times the difference between the actual and natural growth rate. Accordingly, the relationship between growth and unemployment for the United States can be written as:
\nData covering the period 1975–1995 showed that unemployment decreased by 0.13 percentage points for every %1 point of growth exceeding % 4.3 in Turkey. In this context, the equation of Okun law for Turkey was found as follows:
\nThis study shows that the Okun law works very poorly for Turkey. The negative-directional regression line obtained in this study using regression analysis revealed the existence of an inverse relationship between the change in unemployment rate and the growth rate. However growth has an impact on unemployment it must be at least 4.3%. In other words, every %1 point increase after the growth rate reaches this level results in a reduction in the unemployment rate of only %0,13 [18]. It is seen that similar results have been reached in many different studies on Turkey. These calculations indicate that growth in the period of expansion of the conjuncture in particular had very low effects on employment, and hence the presence of non-employment growth. Another important finding obtained in these studies is that the relationship of Okun in the Turkish economy has an asymmetric structure, that is the effect of reducing unemployment during the expansion period of real output and the increasing unemployment during the contraction period are not same [3].
\nWhen the relationship between the growth rate and the unemployment rate are examined in 1999–2019 period in Turkey it is observed that there is an inverse relationship between growth and unemployment, especially during crisis periods. The unemployment rate reached high levels in 1999, 2001 and 2009, and in later years (in some periods) it began to decline, albeit lagging. Similarly, with the negative growth conditions caused by the foreign exchange crisis that took place in 2018, unemployment started to rise and reached its highest value in 2019 with 13.7%. On the other hand, the impact of the cyclical revival in the economy on unemployment remained relatively weak. Despite the growth rate approaching 10% in 2004 and 2005, the unemployment rate remained stable at high levels. It can be said that the decrease in the unemployment rate remained extremely limited in 2011, when the growth rate was the highest in the period studied. In the period of expansion that took place in 2013 and 2017, unemployment did not decrease, but rather started to increase (Figure 2).
\nRelationship between growth and unemployment rate (2004–2019). Source: Turkish World Bank – TCMB.
Although growth statistics have increased over the years in the Turkish economy, unemployment rates have not decreased in the way predicted by Okun’s law. In general accepted theory, when the growth rate of a country’s economy increases, it is expected that employment will increase and the unemployment rate will decrease. Despite the high economic growth rates achieved in Turkey in recent years, this performance is not reflected in unemployment rates to the same extent, causing controversy. An economic growth model that depends on consumption-based foreign capital movements that do not provide employment is not sustainable. Considering the presence of rapid population growth and a demographic structure with a young population, it is of great importance to develop an economic growth model with policies based on production, providing employment, focused on high value added products and reducing external dependence [17].
\nThe current account consists of two main items: the first is the foreign trade account showing the export and import of goods, and the second is the export and import of services, called “invisible trade” [19]. The current account deficit is less than the amount paid for goods produced and sold abroad to be consumed domestically, indicating that a country is making negative savings [20]. The relationship between the current account deficit and growth can be two-way relationship. Firstly the country with insufficient savings ratio or negative savings, the current account deficit can affect growth as investment spending is financed through the use of external savings. Second, as if income growth will increase demand for imported goods, the growth current account deficit may affect growth or may occur as a result of the growth rate itself.
\nThe effect of the current account deficit on the growth rate is explained by providing investments with foreign savings if domestic savings are insufficient. It can be stated as follows if the savings are insufficient in an economy, investments are financed by borrowing of Foreign World Savings. In this context, as emphasized in both development economics and growth models, the source of growth is investment and the source of investment is savings ratio. If domestic savings are insufficient, it means that the difference can be met by using foreign sector savings and the current account deficit. The current account reflects the relationship between the financial markets and the goods and services markets in an economy. In the balance of payments, by definition, the current account deficit should be financed by capital account. In other words, the current account deficit may only be possible if necessary financing is provided in the capital account in the balance of payments.1\n
\nInternational flows of goods and capital are two sides of the coin and this can be explained by the national income accounting authority as follows [21]:
\nThis identification shows the components of National Income (Y), under the assumption of equivalence of public revenues and expenses. Total revenue equals household consumption expenditures (C), private sector investment expenditures and the difference between exports (X) and imports (M), i.e. net exports. When necessary adjustments are made here, it can be shown that net exports or the current account balance in a broad sense are equal to the domestic savings investment difference.:
\nThis equality shows how the current account balance is achieved (If s = I and X = M) in an economy that finances domestic investments with domestic savings. Accordingly, if domestic savings are insufficient to meet the investments (S < I), there will be current account deficit and the investments for finance to savings are provided from abroad [17]. Within the framework of this identification, for example, a study covering the 1980s for the United States concluded that the current account deficit could be explained by the lack of savings. In other words, the level of domestic investment is being supported by flows of foreign saving. The study also emphasizes that external savings flows are equal to the negative value of the current account balance [22]. The many studies similarly have found that the current account deficit affects the growth rate in Turkey as well. For example, changes in the current account deficit were shown to affect economic growth using the structured VAR method by evaluating the quarterly data in 2002–2014 [23]. The relationship between the current account deficit and growth in Turkey is closely related to the need for Energy (oil), investment goods and intermediate imports, as well as the insufficient savings rate. Turkey’s dependence on exports in terms of oil and investment goods is an important factor affecting the reduction of the current account deficit. The realization of investments and therefore growth is linked to the current account deficit through the increase in imports. The consumption expenditures depend mainly on income in the Keynesian approach. Since income growth will affect demand for both domestic and imported goods, it will put a negative pressure on the current account. Thus, in this case, the rate of growth is the independent variable and the current account is the dependent variable, which varies accordingly. The relationship between these two variables is oriented from growth rate to current account balance. The import expenditure represented by M is an increasing function of income in the equality 6. The volume of imports consists of two components such as autonomous and revenue-dependent in the Keynesian model. Hence the total amount of imports varies in the right direction with income depending on the marginal import trend considered constant [24]. İt is observed that the mutual causality relationship is towards growth to current account deficit.
\n\nFigure 3 shows the ratio of the current account to GDP ratio and the growth rate in Turkey over the last 20 years. In the period examined, it is observed that the current account deficit increases during the expansion process and the current account deficit decreases during the contraction periods in Turkey. In addition, the current account balance has been continuously negative except the years 2001 and 2019. Especially when the economy experienced a contraction of close to 6% in 2002, the current account balance was realized at close to 2%. Similar to when the growth ratio reached its highest value (11.1%) the ratio growth to current account to GDP value reached % 8.9 in 2011, when the growth rate was a record it can be considered as an indication of how closely related the growth rate and the current account deficit are in Turkey.
\nCurrent account balance / GDP and growth rate (1999–2019). Source: OECD.
To summarize it is observed that while growth accelerated when the current account balance in Turkey gave a deficit. The growth slowed when the current account balance gave a surplus. In this context, the ratio of the current account deficit to GDP was 4.7% in 2017, while the same rate rose to 1.1% in 2019. In the same period, the growth rate started to decrease and reached 0.9% from 7.4%.
\nIn this study we used Turkey’s current account deficit (CAD), economic growth (G), inflation (INF) and unemployment rate (UR) data are used for the period 2000Q1-2020Q4. The data are taken from the Central Bank Electronic Data Distribution System (EVDS). Value of unemployment series from TUIK (Turkish Statistical Associatıon), others taken from EVDS.
\nIn this study, the degree of stationarity of series are found with Dickey Fuller and Ng -Perron methods. Between series interaction are measured with classic [25] causality test, [26] were analyzed by symmetric latent causality test and [27] asymmetric latent causality test methods. While [27] are developing symmetric and asymmetric implicit causality tests, [25] suggested the analysis which negative and positive shocks can be separated for the cointegration analysis with using the cumulative totals of these shocks. Firstly these series are divided into positive and negative shocks before these causality tests.
\nIf causality relationships between two series such as \n
And the positive shocks are showed,
\nThe negative shocks are determined:
\nThe estimated equation will be held in the table with Toda- Yamamato causality;
\nOther models will be helping one by one for each dependent variable with lagged independent other variables. When null hypothesis rejected that means there is causality for each taken dependent variable to independent variables. In the Todo yamamato causality test held the extra the lag value is expanded and taken dmax =1 and used the k levels with suitable lags levels.
\nThey [26] refer to this causality analysis performed between the same types of shocks, [27] named this causality test asymmetric causality test performed between different types of shocks. In the study, Unit Root perron test [28] was performed and the findings were presented in Table 1 below.
\nVariables | \n\n\n | \n\n\n | \n||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
\n\n | \n\n\n | \n\n\n | \n\nMPT\n | \n\n\n | \n\n\n | \n\n\n | \n\nMPT\n | \n|
CAD + | \n−2,36 (18,15) | \n−1,34 (4,76) | \n0,46 (7,33) | \n5,54 (21,44) | \n−24,12 (−12,42)*\n | \n−4,54(−3,11)*\n | \n0,45 (0,78)*\n | \n2,34 (3.34)*\n | \n
CAD – | \n1,89 (18,1) | \n−1,67 (4,77) | \n1,42 (7,33) | \n34,55 (21,44) | \n−21,20 (−12,42)*\n | \n−4,33 (−3,11)*\n | \n0,34 (0,78)*\n | \n2,15 (3,34)*\n | \n
UNE + | \n−4,33 (−18,7) | \n−2,44 (6,45) | \n1,56 (6,33) | \n22,13 (5,33) | \n−19,33 (−14,6)*\n | \n−3,43 (−2,44)*\n | \n0,64 (0,77)*\n | \n2,11 (3,21)*\n | \n
UNE_ | \n−4,21 (18,7) | \n−2,31 (6,46) | \n−1,57 (6,33) | \n25,45 (5,33) | \n−22,56 (−14,6)*\n | \n−3,66 (−2,44)*\n | \n0,67 (0,78)*\n | \n1,77 (3,21)*\n | \n
INF+ | \n−4,67 (20,3) | \n−2,44 (11,7) | \n0.55 (15,7) | \n27,56 (5,13) | \n−31,56 (−12,33)*\n | \n−3,89 (−2,67)*\n | \n0,22 (0,77)*\n | \n1,56 (1,88)*\n | \n
INF- | \n−4,68 (20,4) | \n−1,66 (11,8) | \n0,34 (15,7) | \n31,42 (5,13) | \n27,45 (−12,33)*\n | \n−3,92 (−2,67)*\n | \n0,50 (0,78)*\n | \n1,42 (1,88)*\n | \n
G+ | \n−8,77 (4,22) | \n−3,77 (8,33) | \n0,21 (9,72) | \n8,55 (3,77) | \n−24,45 (−12,45)*\n | \n−2,44 (−1,16)*\n | \n0,33 (0,77)*\n | \n1,58 (2,33)*\n | \n
G_ | \n7,34 (4,24) | \n−3,59 (8,34) | \n0.22 (9,74) | \n9,88 (3,77) | \n−25,44 (−12,45)*\n | \n−2,56 (−1,16)*\n | \n0,34 (0.77)*\n | \n1,37 (2,33)*\n | \n
Ng and Perron (2001) unit root test results [28].
The stationary serial that has at %1 significance critical values. The I(1) all models have trend and constant.
The parenthesis shows the %1 significance level of asymptotic critical levels.
It was examined by the method of [28]. The MZa and MZt tests are developed from the type of ADF and PP type test whereas the null hypothesis says the variable is not stationary. MSB and MPT tests are KPSS group tests and the null hypothesis refers the series is stationary.
\n\nTable 1 was observed that all of the series were not stationary at level as I(0) but when the first differences were taken all variables became stationary as I (1).
\nAfter the determination of the degree of the level stationary of variables will be used for Granger causality test. In the analysis, causality relationships between the series were first examined by [29] method. The Akaike and Hannan-Quinn information criteria were determined based on VAR analysis. The first differences of the series were used for Granger causality and the results obtained are presented in Table 2.
\nHypothesis | \nOpt.lag. | \nF statistics | \nProb | \n
---|---|---|---|
G → INF | \n4 | \n0,426 | \n0.544 | \n
INF → G | \n4 | \n0,210 | \n0.021*\n | \n
CAD → G | \n4 | \n0,588 | \n0.711 | \n
G → CAD | \n4 | \n0,834 | \n0.455 | \n
INF → UNE | \n4 | \n0.615 | \n0.233 | \n
UNE → INF | \n4 | \n0,588 | \n0.355 | \n
UNE → G | \n4 | \n0,712 | \n1.235 | \n
G → UNE | \n4 | \n0,833 | \n0.783 | \n
Granger causality test.
The null hypothesis the caused to determined variables.
\nTable 1 results show there is a strong one-way causality relationship between Inflation and Economic growth. The relationship is from inflation to growth ıt means that the inflation is cause of growth as the rejected null hypothesis shows it.
\nInflation rates are also directly affects the higher economic growth rate in Turkey. The import of the raw materials and semi-finished materials are needed during the production effects the economy.
\n\nTable 3 obtained the hidden causality test relationships results between the all variables which belong to [26]. We take the positive and negative shocks which refers different effect to causality between each other. The symmetric causality test shows the same shocks effect how affect the causality.
\nHypothesis | \nTest statistic | \nBootstrap Critical value | \n
---|---|---|
\n\n | \n1231 | \n4,87 | \n
\n\n | \n4553*\n | \n2,31 | \n
\n\n | \n2237 | \n4,55 | \n
\n\n | \n4674 | \n5.22 | \n
\n\n | \n8.232*\n | \n3,66 | \n
\n\n | \n3478 | \n4,21 | \n
\n\n | \n2361 | \n5,67 | \n
\n\n | \n2456 | \n7,34 | \n
\n\n | \n5346*\n | \n2,40 | \n
\n\n | \n5172 | \n8,33 | \n
\n\n | \n4164 | \n6,22 | \n
\n\n | \n4671*\n | \n1,67 | \n
\n\n | \n3477*\n | \n2,39 | \n
\n\n | \n3782 | \n6,33 | \n
Symmetric causality test.
The causality with the %5 significance level.
\nTable 3 shows the positive shocks on inflatıon causes the positive shocks on unemployment. The two way causality with unemployment and inflation under the positive shocks effect.
\nThere is a mutual causal relationship between growth and unemployment under the positive shock situation. The inflation causes the growth when they are affected negative shock. There is a one way causality growth to inflation. In the symmetric causality we could not find any causality with other variables.
\n\nTable 4 shows the causality relationships between positive and negative shocks of series which they were investigated by [27] method which based on [23] test. The test of models are suitable for the analysis. There is no normal distribution because of asymmetric structure also there are no correlation and heteroscedasticity are found with Lm test and White test results under the null hypothesis accepted and not statistically significant probability levels [30, 31, 32, 33, 34].
\nHypothesis | \nVar lag (p + d) | \nAsymmetric causality test probe | \nARCH-LM | \nWhite | \nJ.B. | \n
---|---|---|---|---|---|
\n\n | \n4 | \n0.867 | \n0.645 | \n0.788 0.231 | \n0.001 | \n
\n\n | \n0.563 | \n||||
\n\n | \n7 | \n0.059 | \n0.328 | \n0.345 | \n0.001 | \n
\n\n | \n0.001*\n | \n||||
\n\n | \n4 | \n0.003*\n | \n0.239 | \n0.358 | \n0.013 | \n
\n\n | \n0.548 | \n||||
\n\n | \n6 | \n0.458 | \n0.234 | \n0.127 | \n0.022 | \n
\n\n | \n0.001*\n | \n||||
\n\n | \n8 | \n0.002*\n | \n0.078 | \n0.390 | \n0.001 | \n
\n\n | \n0.476 | \n||||
\n\n | \n5 | \n0.007*\n | \n0.084 | \n0.56 | \n0.002 | \n
\n\n | \n0.013*\n | \n||||
\n\n | \n5 | \n0.156 | \n0.671 | \n0.551 | \n0.012 | \n
\n\n | \n0.088 | \n||||
\n\n | \n6 | \n0.001 | \n0.458 | \n0.755 | \n0.003 | \n
\n\n | \n0.002*\n | \n
Asymmetric causality test.
The asymmetric probability is statistically significant. The LM test for otocorrelation,White test for heteroscedasticity. The probability statistically significance levels for %5 confidence. Jarque bera test is for normality, the probability levels are statistically significant that eject the null hypothesis.
The bold numbers are statistically significant probabilities.
According to these results the one way causality from negative growth shock to positive current deficit shocks. The negative growth shocks cause the positive unemployment shock. This means the positive effect on growth makes the negative effect on unemployment that makes the unemployment getting bigger.
\nThe positive shock of growth causes the negative current account deficit shock. That means when the growth is becoming more well the current account deficit is continuing to increase. The negative shock on ınflation causes the positive shock on unemployment. Negative shock on growth causes the positive shock inflation. The negative shock on unemployment and positive shock on inflation have bidirectional causality.
\nIn this study, economic growth for Turkey, the current account deficit, inflation and unemployment data in the period considered causality between these to show the differences in the relationship be followed when the shocks that affected both symmetric and was examined by asymmetric causality test.
\nWhen we look at the symmetrical causality test, one-way causality was determined from positive unemployment to positive inflation shock, positive growth shock to positive unemployment shock, positive growth to positive current account deficit. There is also causality from negative growth shock to negative inflation. The obtained from the study results the multiple causality between unemployment and inflation when the positive shocks are effective on one of them which another is not.
\nAs a result of the asymmetric test, there is causality from positive growth shocks to negative unemployment shocks and causality towards negative current shocks and positive current account deficit shocks. The mutual causality was observed between positive growth shocks and negative current account deficit shocks. In this way, while studying the causing between them, this causality may not emerge, but causality relationship may arise from considering different responses to shocks.
\nIn addition, the emergence of different relationship structures in response to these positive and negative shocks from an economic point of view also makes the situation and impact of different economic causes a matter to be considered.
\nAccording to these statements imports must increase in order to accelerate the economy since Turkey has a production structure dependent on imports. In this case, there is inevitably an external account deficit. This deficit, which means the use of foreign savings, has caused the foreign debt stock in Turkey to exceed the tolerable level. Increasing foreign debt and the consequent need for foreign currency means that the economy becomes more fragile and macroeconomic balances deteriorate rapidly. In order to grow without a current account deficit the significant changes in the production structure of the economy must be implemented immediately in Turkey. First of all the intermediate goods producing sectors must be developed and the dependence on imports must be decreased. Moreover, a competitive exchange rate policy in foreign trade should be expected to have positive results.
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